M\u00eb 24 shkurt 2023 u sh\u00ebnua nj\u00ebvjetori i fillimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs totale n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. N\u00eb shum\u00eb media, vendore dhe nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, u raportua mbi bilancin e nj\u00ebvje\u00e7arit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs. U analizuan shum\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje, si: taktikat ushtarake, tragjedit\u00eb njer\u00ebzore, pasojat ekonomike, efekti i sanksioneve, rezervat e armatimeve dhe retorika nukleare, mes t\u00eb tjerash.<\/p>\n
Askush nuk mund ta parashikoj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin e luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, duket se lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb afatshkurt\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb literatur\u00eb njihen kryesisht tre skenar\u00eb se si p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb luft\u00ebrat. P\u00ebrgjat\u00eb viteve, studiuesit kan\u00eb mbledhur dhe studiuar t\u00eb dh\u00ebna p\u00ebr t\u2019i analizuar shkaqet dhe rrethanat e luft\u00ebs dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar modele shpjeguese se kur dhe si p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb luft\u00ebrat nd\u00ebrshtet\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebr autor\u00ebt me t\u00eb njohur n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb drejtim \u00ebsht\u00eb studiuesi Dan Reiter. N\u00eb librin e tij \u201cSi p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb luft\u00ebrat,<\/a>\u201d Reiter identifikon tri m\u00ebnyra se si mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb luft\u00ebrat nd\u00ebrshtet\u00ebrore: fitorja absolute e nj\u00ebr\u00ebs pal\u00eb, arm\u00ebpushimi dhe zgjidhja politike.<\/p>\n Fitorja absolute e nj\u00ebr\u00ebs pal\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n Sipas Reiter, fitorja absolute arrihet n\u00eb rastet kur shteti fitues n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrhershme asgj\u00ebson k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin potencial q\u00eb vjen nga kund\u00ebrshtari. N\u00eb t\u00eb tilla situata, shteti fitues synon t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb udh\u00ebheqjen politike n\u00eb shtetin e mposhtur, duke e pushtuar apo duke i aneksuar territorin.<\/p>\n Rasti m\u00eb i njohur dhe m\u00eb ilustrues i nj\u00eb fitoreje t\u00eb till\u00eb ka ndodhur n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, ku shtetet aleate, t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequra nga Shtetet e Bashkuara, arrit\u00ebn fitore absolute kundrejt Japonis\u00eb dhe Gjermanis\u00eb.<\/p>\n N\u00eb rastin e Ukrain\u00ebs duket se asnj\u00ebra pal\u00eb e p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb konflikt nuk e ka mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb arrij\u00eb fitore absolute. Bazuar n\u00eb deklaratat zyrtare, por edhe zhvillimet n\u00eb terren, n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb luftimeve – n\u00eb shkurt t\u00eb vitit 2022 –\u00a0Rusia<\/a>\u00a0synonte q\u00eb p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb \u201coperacioni special 10-ditor\u201d t\u00eb arrinte nj\u00eb fitore t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb, t\u00eb stilit \u201cBlitzkrieg\u201d, duke demilitarizuar Ukrain\u00ebn dhe duke instaluar nj\u00eb regjim t\u00eb ri n\u00eb Kiev.<\/p>\n Mir\u00ebpo, Moska nuk kishte arritur t\u00eb parashikonte se nj\u00eb sulm i till\u00eb do t\u00eb rriste kohezionin n\u00eb mesin e vendeve an\u00ebtare t\u00eb NATO-s, duke stimuluar k\u00ebshtu edhe vendosm\u00ebrin\u00eb e ukrainasve p\u00ebr t\u00eb rezistuar. T\u00eb ballafaquara me k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb, forcat ruse ndryshuan strategji dhe braktis\u00ebn aspiratat p\u00ebr nj\u00eb fitore t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb dhe absolute.<\/p>\n Fillimisht Moska ndoqi taktik\u00ebn e bombardimeve ajrore p\u00ebrmes dron\u00ebve kamikaz\u00eb me q\u00ebllim t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimit t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs kritike t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe popullsis\u00eb civile. Q\u00eb nga tetori 2022, Rusia aplikoi politik\u00ebn e aneksimit duke pushtuar\u00a0kat\u00ebr<\/a>\u00a0rajone ukrainase. Aktualisht q\u00ebllimi kryesor i Mosk\u00ebs duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb mbajtja n\u00ebn kontroll e k\u00ebtyre rajoneve t\u00eb aneksuara.<\/p>\n N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, duket se edhe Ukraina e ka t\u00eb pamundur t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nj\u00eb fitore absolute kundrejt Rusis\u00eb. Presidenti ukrainas disa her\u00eb ka deklaruar se synimi i Kievit \u00ebsht\u00eb ta rikthej\u00eb n\u00ebn kontroll t\u00eb gjith\u00eb territorin e Ukrain\u00ebs, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb edhe \u00e7lirimin e Krimes\u00eb.<\/p>\n Arm\u00ebpushimi<\/strong><\/p>\n Modaliteti tjet\u00ebr i p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs – si\u00e7 sugjeron autori Reiter – \u00ebsht\u00eb arritja e nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje arm\u00ebpushimi. Arm\u00ebpushimi n\u00ebnkupton ndalimin afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb luftimeve n\u00eb mes t\u00eb pal\u00ebve. N\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb, t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt nd\u00ebrluftuese angazhohen t\u00eb ndalojn\u00eb luft\u00ebn dhe t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtojn\u00eb mekanizma p\u00ebrkat\u00ebs q\u00eb do t\u00eb pengonin rifillimin e luftimeve.<\/p>\n N\u00eb k\u00ebto situata zakonisht p\u00ebrdoren zonat e \u00e7militarizuara, si\u00e7 jan\u00eb Paralelja e 58-t\u00eb (si n\u00eb rastin e\u00a0Luft\u00ebs e Kores\u00eb<\/a>, 1953) dhe rasti i\u00a0Transnistris\u00eb<\/a>\u00a0n\u00eb Moldavi (1992).<\/p>\n N\u00eb rastin e Ukrain\u00ebs, Rusia do t\u00eb ndalonte sulmet kundrejt ushtris\u00eb, popullsis\u00eb dhe infrastruktur\u00ebs n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb territorin ukrainas, duke pezulluar edhe p\u00ebrpjekjet e m\u00ebtejme p\u00ebr ta zgjeruar territorin e pushtuar. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, Ukraina do t\u00eb stoponte p\u00ebrpjekjet p\u00ebr ta rikthyer territorin e pushtuar.<\/p>\n Mir\u00ebpo, nj\u00eb fund i till\u00eb i luft\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm, sidomos kur merren n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb q\u00ebllimet p\u00ebrfundimtare dhe q\u00ebndrimet divergjente t\u00eb pal\u00ebve t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira sa i p\u00ebrket territorit t\u00eb pushtuar ukrainas.<\/p>\n Arritja e nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje arm\u00ebpushimi \u00ebsht\u00eb problematike n\u00eb planin afatgjat\u00eb, sepse p\u00ebrmes saj nuk do t\u00eb adresohen shkaqet burimore t\u00eb konfliktit. S\u00eb k\u00ebndejmi, nd\u00ebrveprimi n\u00eb mes t\u00eb shteteve t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje arm\u00ebpushimi \u00ebsht\u00eb minimal. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, ekziston rreziku permanent q\u00eb tensionet t\u00eb rriten s\u00ebrish dhe luftimet t\u00eb rinisin.<\/p>\n N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, ky modalitet nuk do t\u2019i jepte zgjidhje t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme dhe afatgjate burimit t\u00eb konfliktit. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast do t\u00eb krijohej nj\u00eb konflikt i ngrir\u00eb me potencial t\u00eb eskalimit n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen.<\/p>\n Zgjidhja politike<\/strong><\/p>\n Autori Reiter argumenton se zgjidhja politike \u00ebsht\u00eb modaliteti i fundit q\u00eb mund t\u00eb zgjidh\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt. Kjo mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb p\u00ebrmes marr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb traktati paqeje p\u00ebr p\u00ebrfundimin e luft\u00ebs. Kjo form\u00eb e zgjidhjes p\u00ebrfshin nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm mes pal\u00ebve dhe akomodim\u00a0t\u00eb\u00a0mosmarr\u00ebveshjeve esenciale q\u00eb jan\u00eb burimi kryesor i konfliktit.<\/p>\n Literatura ka evidentuar q\u00eb pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore p\u00ebrfundimet e luft\u00ebrave n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet nj\u00eb dakordimi gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebs politik apo n\u00ebnshkrimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb traktati paqeje jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rralla sesa marr\u00ebveshjet e arm\u00ebpushimit.<\/p>\n Fillimi i luftimeve n\u00eb mes t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe Rusis\u00eb kishte sh\u00ebnuar edhe nisjen e negociatave n\u00eb mes t\u00eb pal\u00ebve p\u00ebr arritjen e nj\u00eb zgjidhjeje eventuale politike. K\u00ebto p\u00ebrpjekje – me nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsimin aktiv t\u00eb Turqis\u00eb – kishin kulmuar n\u00eb mars t\u00eb vitit 2022. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb takim, pala ukrainase kishte paraqitur k\u00ebrkesat e veta n\u00eb form\u00ebn e dhjet\u00eb pikave, e njohur edhe si \u201cKomunikata e Stambollit<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n P\u00ebrmes k\u00ebsaj komunikate u kumtuan kushtet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim mes pal\u00ebve, q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshinin arritjen e nj\u00eb neutraliteti t\u00eb p\u00ebrhersh\u00ebm t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe ofrimin e garancive nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb siguris\u00eb, duke u zotuar se statusi i Krimes\u00eb do t\u00eb zgjidhej brenda\u00a015 vjet\u00ebsh<\/a>. Kurse p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb ishte jetike q\u00eb t\u00eb kodifikonte statusin e neutralitetit t\u00eb p\u00ebrhersh\u00ebm p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn, duke e asgj\u00ebsuar k\u00ebshtu ambicien e saj p\u00ebr an\u00ebtar\u00ebsim n\u00eb NATO.<\/p>\n Mir\u00ebpo kjo marr\u00ebveshje nuk u arrit. Negociatat e m\u00ebtejme u pezulluan dhe lufta vazhdoi. Ka\u00a0z\u00ebra<\/a>\u00a0q\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin iden\u00eb se ishin pik\u00ebrisht Shtetet e Bashkuara q\u00eb p\u00ebr arsye gjeopolitike, p\u00ebrmes ish-kryeministrit britanik Boris Johnson, u siguruan q\u00eb k\u00ebto negociata t\u00eb d\u00ebshtojn\u00eb.<\/p>\n