{"id":3034,"date":"2018-10-27T15:37:28","date_gmt":"2018-10-27T13:37:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=3034"},"modified":"2024-12-17T15:39:29","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T13:39:29","slug":"ankthi-i-cuditshem-nga-sondazhet-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/ankthi-i-cuditshem-nga-sondazhet-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Ankthi i \u00e7uditsh\u00ebm nga sondazhet"},"content":{"rendered":"
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K\u00ebto dit\u00eb, L\u00ebvizja Vet\u00ebvendosje botoi rezultatet e nj\u00eb\u00a0sondazhi t\u00eb realizuar nga nj\u00eb firm\u00eb private,<\/a>\u00a0e cila tregonte rezultate t\u00eb pafavorshme p\u00ebr partin\u00eb e kryeministrit aktual. Sipas sondazhit n\u00eb fjal\u00eb, LDK kishte dal\u00eb e treta p\u00ebr nga mb\u00ebshtetja popullore. Ky rezultat duksh\u00ebm irritoi krer\u00ebt e k\u00ebsaj partie,\u00a0q\u00eb nxor\u00ebn nj\u00eb komunikat\u00eb p\u00ebrplot sulme ndaj L\u00ebvizjes Vet\u00ebvendosje dhe kompanis\u00eb q\u00eb ka realizuar sondazhin.<\/a><\/p>\n

Se publikimi i rezultateve t\u00eb nj\u00eb sondazhi mund t\u00eb provokoj\u00eb k\u00ebsi reagimi nga partia n\u00eb pushtet, mbetet nj\u00eb nga enigmat e \u00e7uditshme t\u00eb politik\u00ebs kosovare. Reagimi i LDK-s\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb jasht\u00eb norm\u00ebs, e nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb as porositja e sondazhit nga L\u00ebvizja Vet\u00ebvendosje. Dihet se sondazhet private n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb porositen rregullisht nga partit\u00eb politike, misionet diplomatike dhe nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, OJQ-t\u00eb, dhe organizata t\u00eb tjera. Nuk dihet, por do t\u00eb ishte mir\u00eb t\u00eb studiohej, qarkullimi vjetor q\u00eb b\u00ebhet n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb p\u00ebr sondazhet e ndryshme q\u00eb realizohen, disa rregullisht, disa sipas momentit dhe nevoj\u00ebs (p.sh., n\u00eb prag t\u00eb zgjedhjeve). Disa sondazhe t\u00eb rregullta jan\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00ebnjohura, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb ai i realizuar periodikisht nga UNDP dhe i cili b\u00ebhet q\u00eb nga viti 2004. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 UBO Consulting (t\u00eb kontraktuar nga L\u00ebvizja Vet\u00ebvendosje), firma si Index Kosova ofrojn\u00eb sh\u00ebrbime t\u00eb ngjashme, nd\u00ebrsa edhe sektori i OJQ-ve gjithashtu realizon sondazhe. Me nj\u00eb fjal\u00eb, n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ekziston tash e sa vite nj\u00eb sektor pak a shum\u00eb i specializuar i matjes s\u00eb opinionit publik.<\/p>\n

Paradoksi i k\u00ebsaj \u00ebsht\u00eb se sa pak nga rezultatet e k\u00ebtyre sondazheve, sidomos ato p\u00ebr mb\u00ebshtetjen q\u00eb g\u00ebzojn\u00eb partit\u00eb politike, lider\u00ebt politik\u00eb dhe p\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtje t\u00eb ndjeshme politike, b\u00ebhen publike. N\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e rasteve, rezultatet e sondazheve mbet\u00ebn p\u00ebr p\u00ebrdorim intern, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat p\u00ebrflitet n\u00ebp\u00ebr kuloaret politike t\u00eb Prishtin\u00ebs, por rezultatet (dhe metodologjia dhe aparatura tjet\u00ebr teknike) mbetet e panjohur p\u00ebr publikun e gjer\u00eb. N\u00eb rastin e fundit, publikimi i rezultateve t\u00eb sondazhit nga L\u00ebvizja Vet\u00ebvendosje cenoi k\u00ebt\u00eb norm\u00eb tashm\u00eb t\u00eb etabluar t\u00eb politik\u00ebs kosovare, \u00e7ka duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb provokuar reagimin e pezmatuar t\u00eb kreut t\u00eb LDK-s\u00eb (natyrisht, n\u00eb kontekstin e animoziteteve t\u00eb shtuara midis LVV dhe LDK qysh prej formimit t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb Isa Mustaf\u00ebs).<\/p>\n

Ky lloj ankthi nga sondazhet mbet\u00ebt nj\u00eb faktor pothuajse i pashpjeguesh\u00ebm. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb hera e par\u00eb q\u00eb ndodh kjo \u2013\u00a0para shpalljes s\u00eb pavar\u00ebsis\u00eb, PDK dhe kreu i saj i at\u00ebhersh\u00ebm, Hashim Tha\u00e7i, kishte reaguar nj\u00ebsoj kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb sondazhi q\u00eb nuk e kishte nxjerr PDK-n\u00eb mir\u00eb. Sondazhi i rregullt i UNDP-s\u00eb nuk boton t\u00eb dh\u00ebna mbi p\u00ebrkrahjen q\u00eb kan\u00eb partit\u00eb politike, ndon\u00ebse boton t\u00eb dh\u00ebna mbi popullaritetin e institucioneve t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta si kryeministris\u00eb, presidenc\u00ebs, EULEX-it, e policis\u00eb. N\u00eb nj\u00eb rast para shum\u00eb vitesh, isha ftuar t\u00eb marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb interpretimin e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga sondazhet e UNDP-s\u00eb. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00ebllim, m\u00eb ishin dh\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb shqyrtim rezultatet e pap\u00ebrpunuara t\u00eb sondazhit. \u00c7udit\u00ebrisht, rezultatet n\u00eb pyetjen se cil\u00ebn parti e p\u00ebrkrah i anketuari, ishin shlyer.<\/p>\n

Kjo na thot\u00eb se n\u00eb pyetje nuk jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm \u00e7\u00ebshtje komerciale, se organizatat nuk publikojn\u00eb rezultate t\u00eb sondazheve sepse ato i kan\u00eb porositur dhe paguar vet\u00eb, dhe si t\u00eb tilla i konsiderojn\u00eb informacione private. Fakti se edhe OJQ dhe organizata nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare ngurrojn\u00eb ose kan\u00eb frik\u00eb nga publikimi i t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb sondazheve q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se si q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb partit\u00eb politike dhe lider\u00ebt politik tregon se fjala \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb presion politik, q\u00eb t\u00eb mos anketohen qytetar\u00ebt p\u00ebr p\u00ebrkrahjen q\u00eb ia japin partive, e q\u00eb kur ato b\u00ebhen privatisht, rezultatet t\u00eb mos shp\u00ebrndahen p\u00ebr publikun e gjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb interesi i shtyn partit\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb heshtin dhe fshehin rezultatet e sondazheve? Natyrisht, nga nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb amerikane (meq\u00eb banoj dhe SHBA dhe aktualisht jemi n\u00eb vlugun e gar\u00ebs presidenciale), fshehja e rezultateve t\u00eb sondazheve \u00ebsht\u00eb plot\u00ebsisht e pakuptueshme. N\u00eb rastin e gar\u00ebs presidenciale, sondazhe publike mbi mb\u00ebshtetjen q\u00eb g\u00ebzon nj\u00ebri ose tjetri kandidat ndodhin \u00e7do jav\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos th\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebrdit\u00eb. Edhe partit\u00eb dhe kandidat\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb kontraktojn\u00eb firma dhe konsulent\u00eb p\u00ebr sondazhet e tyre (q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb vet\u00ebm me p\u00ebrkrahjen, por edhe me studimin e profileve t\u00eb votuesve p\u00ebr q\u00ebllime strategjike elektorale), por publikimi gati i p\u00ebrditsh\u00ebm i sondazheve \u00ebsht\u00eb pjes\u00eb normale e politik\u00ebs amerikane. N\u00eb fakt, mund t\u00eb thuhet se n\u00eb SHBA, politika \u00ebsht\u00eb e \u201ctej-sondazhuar\u201d, n\u00eb kuptimin q\u00eb \u00e7do platform\u00eb dhe \u00e7do vendim paraprihet nga matja e opinionit publik, q\u00eb heq substanc\u00ebn nga debati politik dhe e redukton at\u00eb n\u00eb nivel t\u00eb \u201copinioneve\u201d personale. Por kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje tjet\u00ebr. N\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, frika nga sondazhet tejkalon at\u00eb q\u00eb konsiderohet normale n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e demokracive.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb nga problemet e sondazheve \u00ebsht\u00eb se ato nuk jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm mat\u00ebse neutrale t\u00eb opinionit, por mund t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohen n\u00eb faktor t\u00eb formimit t\u00eb vet\u00eb perceptimeve q\u00eb kan\u00eb qytetar\u00ebt mbi nj\u00ebr\u00ebn ose tjet\u00ebr parti, nj\u00ebr\u00ebn ose tjetr\u00ebn \u00e7\u00ebshtje. Publikimi i rezultateve t\u00eb sondazheve mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoret jo vet\u00ebm si pasqyr\u00eb e distribuimit t\u00eb \u201copinioneve\u201d n\u00eb nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri, por edhe si mjet q\u00eb ndikon n\u00eb form\u00ebsimin e atyre opinioneve. Kjo ndodh edhe n\u00ebse vet\u00eb realizimi i sondazhit b\u00ebhet me standarde t\u00eb larta teknike e shkencore. \u00cbsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb frik\u00ebson partit\u00eb politike n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb nga sondazhet publike, sepse e din\u00eb se perceptimi se nj\u00eb parti \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie (ose n\u00eb ngritje) mund t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbej\u00eb si momentum p\u00ebr p\u00ebrshpejtimin e atij procesi.<\/p>\n

Votues q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb militant\u00eb ose, n\u00eb rastin e Kosov\u00ebs, pjes\u00eb e ndonj\u00eb rrjeti klientelist, mund ta kthejn\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen drejt partis\u00eb tjet\u00ebr si pasoj\u00eb e asaj q\u00eb e shohin n\u00eb nj\u00eb sondazh (koncepti i maksimalizimit t\u00eb vot\u00ebs, si\u00e7 quhet n\u00eb teorin\u00eb e zgjedhjes racionale [rational choice theory], b\u00ebn q\u00eb votuesi ta drejtoj\u00eb vot\u00ebn drejt partis\u00eb q\u00eb ai beson se ka m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti gjasa t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb, ose t\u00eb mos ia jap\u00eb at\u00eb nj\u00eb partie q\u00eb beson se e ka t\u00eb garantuar humbjen). Dhe kjo ndodh\u00eb sidomos n\u00eb kontekste si Kosova, ku sondazhet (publike) jan\u00eb t\u00eb rralla dhe nj\u00eb rezultat mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb efekt t\u00eb gjer\u00eb e t\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Paradoksalisht, angazhimi i partive p\u00ebr t\u00eb fshehur rezultatet e sondazheve vet\u00ebm sa i b\u00ebn sondazhet m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme si \u201carm\u00eb\u201d politike. Kjo ndodh edhe nga p\u00ebrpjekjet, si\u00e7 e pam\u00eb edhe n\u00eb rastin e reagimit t\u00eb LDK-s\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb diskredituar firm\u00ebn q\u00eb e ka realizuar sondazhin, pa ditur asgj\u00eb rreth madh\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb mostr\u00ebs, metodologjis\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur etj. Me nj\u00eb fjal\u00eb, kjo ngrit dyshime n\u00eb vet\u00eb procesin e anketimit q\u00eb e b\u00ebn nj\u00eb sondazh, duke konsideruar se \u00e7do sondazh \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00ebllimisht i manipuluar p\u00ebr ta nxjerr\u00eb n\u00eb ep\u00ebrsi porosit\u00ebsin. Natyrisht, nga nj\u00eb pik\u00ebpamje e thjesht\u00eb strategjike, nj\u00eb sondazh i rrem\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte i d\u00ebmsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr vet\u00eb porosit\u00ebsin, sepse kjo potencialisht do ta b\u00ebnte at\u00eb q\u00eb vet\u00eb t\u00eb mbivler\u00ebsoj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen q\u00eb e ka, me pasoja elektorale p\u00ebr vet\u00eb\u00a0at\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Kjo situat\u00eb e politizimit t\u00eb sondazheve \u00ebsht\u00eb faj i vet partive. Edhe nga aspekti i thjesht\u00eb teknik, dihet se rezultatet e nj\u00eb sondazhi mund t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb nj\u00ebri nga tjetri, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb metodologjis\u00eb dhe, thjesht, rregullave t\u00eb probabilitetit q\u00eb vendosin kufij mbi sakt\u00ebsin\u00eb e nj\u00eb ankete me qytetar\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Idealisht, n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb do t\u00eb kishim sondazhe q\u00eb b\u00ebhen m\u00eb shpesh, me rezultate q\u00eb b\u00ebhen publike rregullisht. Kjo do t\u00eb ndihmonte si n\u00eb rritjen e transparenc\u00ebs dhe kredibilitetit t\u00eb sondazheve, por edhe do t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbente p\u00ebr formimin e nj\u00eb pasqyre m\u00eb t\u00eb sakt\u00eb e t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme e opinionit publik i cili, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mir\u00eb e p\u00ebr t\u00eb keq, mbetet p\u00ebrcaktues n\u00eb nj\u00eb demokraci.<\/p>\n

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\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u00ebto dit\u00eb, L\u00ebvizja Vet\u00ebvendosje botoi rezultatet e nj\u00eb\u00a0sondazhi t\u00eb realizuar nga nj\u00eb firm\u00eb private,\u00a0e cila tregonte rezultate t\u00eb pafavorshme p\u00ebr partin\u00eb e kryeministrit aktual. Sipas sondazhit n\u00eb fjal\u00eb, LDK kishte dal\u00eb e treta p\u00ebr nga mb\u00ebshtetja popullore. Ky rezultat duksh\u00ebm irritoi krer\u00ebt e k\u00ebsaj partie,\u00a0q\u00eb nxor\u00ebn nj\u00eb komunikat\u00eb p\u00ebrplot sulme ndaj L\u00ebvizjes Vet\u00ebvendosje dhe kompanis\u00eb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":11284,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[11,868,1658],"ppma_author":[59],"class_list":["post-3034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-kosova","tag-politika","tag-sondazhet"],"authors":[{"term_id":59,"user_id":49,"is_guest":0,"slug":"besnik-pula","display_name":"Besnik Pula","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1516241920287.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1516241920287.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Pula","first_name":"Besnik","description":"Besnik Pula specializon n\u00eb Ekonomi Politike dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb profesor-asistent n\u00eb Departamentin e Shkenc\u00ebs Politike n\u00eb Universitetin Virginia Tech n\u00eb ShBA. Besniku ka doktoruar n\u00eb Sociologji n\u00eb Universitetin e Mi\u00e7igenit. Shkruan kryesisht p\u00ebr politikat zhvillimore, \u00e7\u00ebshtjet sociale dhe ekonomike."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3034"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11285,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3034\/revisions\/11285"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3034"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=3034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}