{"id":3248,"date":"2016-08-04T20:44:29","date_gmt":"2016-08-04T18:44:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=3248"},"modified":"2024-12-23T16:40:53","modified_gmt":"2024-12-23T14:40:53","slug":"trumpokalipsi-ne-ballkan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/uncategorized\/trumpokalipsi-ne-ballkan\/","title":{"rendered":"Trumpokalipsi n\u00eb Ballkan?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V\u00ebmendja e mediave bot\u00ebrore dhe e atyre kosovare, me t\u00eb drejt\u00eb k\u00ebto jav\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb kthyer drejt SHBA-ve, ku ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb faz\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb fundit (tre mujore) fushata zgjedhore p\u00ebr president\/e, si dhe p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb kongresit dhe senatit.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Zgjedhjet p\u00ebr president\/e pa dyshim se jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr ne, meq\u00eb presidenca amerikane ka goxha dor\u00eb t\u00eb lir\u00eb nga kongresi n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e jashtme.<\/span><\/p>\n

Befasia kryesore e k\u00ebtij viti pa dyshim \u00ebsht\u00eb nominimi p\u00ebr president i Donald Trump nga ana e Partis\u00eb Republikane.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rrall\u00ebkush do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb parashikonte hi\u00e7 m\u00eb larg se nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb se kandidat i t\u00eb ashtuquajtur\u00ebs Parti e Madhe dhe e Vjet\u00ebr (Grand Old Party) t\u00eb Linkolnit-it, e cila e b\u00ebri t\u00eb paligjshme skllav\u00ebrin\u00eb, do t\u00eb b\u00ebhej kontroversi Trump, t\u00eb cilin shum\u00eb komentues n\u00eb shtypin amerikan e konsiderojn\u00eb nj\u00eb kloun popullist, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb munguar edhe vler\u00ebsimet p\u00ebr t\u00eb si racist, narcisist, e sociopat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Brenda vitit t\u00eb fundit Trump ka th\u00ebn\u00eb aq shum\u00eb gj\u00ebra ofenduese \u2013 ndaj meksikan\u00ebve, mysliman\u00ebve, zezak\u00ebve, grave, komunitetit LGBTI, heronjve t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, etj \u2013 dhe u ka fryr\u00eb aq shum\u00eb ndasive kulturore brenda SHBA-ve p\u00ebr t\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr v\u00ebmendje e p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar mb\u00ebshtetjen e t\u00eb frustruar\u00ebve n\u00eb mesin e votuesve republikan\u00eb, saq\u00eb p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb pas nj\u00eb kohe\u00a0t\u00eb gjat\u00eb edhe \u201csupremacist\u00ebt e bardh\u00eb\u201d (grupe q\u00eb haptas promovojn\u00eb racizmin) jan\u00eb hedhur n\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje publike t\u00eb nj\u00eb kandidati nga dy partit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha.<\/span><\/p>\n

Duke p\u00ebrfituar nga frustrimet e baz\u00ebs elektorale republikane me ekonomin\u00eb, elit\u00ebn politike si dhe me ndryshimet demografike n\u00eb SHBA (mb\u00ebshtetjen kryesore Trump e ka n\u00eb mesin e meshkujve t\u00eb bardh\u00eb t\u00eb klas\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore dhe atyre t\u00eb paarsimuar), kandidati kontrovers ka shkuar aq shum\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00eb t\u00eb politikave t\u00eb deritashme zyrtare t\u00eb republikan\u00ebve, sa q\u00eb shum\u00eb figura t\u00eb njohura t\u00eb establishmentit (p\u00ebrfshi ish-kandidat\u00ebt Bush dhe Romney) refuzojn\u00eb ta mb\u00ebshtesin publikisht kandidatur\u00ebn e tij.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gjithandej n\u00eb kancelarit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore me t\u00eb drejt\u00eb jan\u00eb ndezur kambanat e alarmit p\u00ebr mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e fitores s\u00eb Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mendimi konvencional i artikuluar nga analist\u00ebt gjithsesi \u00ebsht\u00eb se Hillary Clinton mbetet favorite p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar. Por viti i fundit d\u00ebshmoi se elektorati amerikan sivjet nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb fare n\u00eb disponim konvencional, dhe shum\u00eb i l\u00ebkundsh\u00ebm nga ngjarjet ditore (p\u00ebr shembull sulmet terroriste).<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikuesi m\u00eb i njohur i zgjedhjeve n\u00eb SHBA Nate Silver, n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb modeleve t\u00eb tija t\u00eb sofistikuara statistikore, vler\u00ebson se gjasat q\u00eb Trump t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb jan\u00eb 32% (kjo p\u00ebrqindje rifreskohet vazhdimisht nga prurjet e p\u00ebrditshme t\u00eb anketave) \u2013 gjithsesi nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi e lart\u00eb dhe shqet\u00ebsuese marr\u00eb parasysh natyr\u00ebn skandaloze t\u00eb kandidatit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sidoqoft\u00eb, n\u00eb rrethet e analist\u00ebve t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb po forcohet bindja se Trump-i \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kandidat tep\u00ebr i rreziksh\u00ebm p\u00ebr paqen dhe sigurin\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr interesat e bot\u00ebs demokratike.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pasojat e fitores s\u00eb tij mbi t\u00eb gjitha do t\u00eb r\u00ebndonin mbi nj\u00eb rajon si Ballkani, ku p\u00ebrve\u00e7 konflikteve t\u00eb shumta t\u00eb ngrira etnike, institucioneve t\u00eb brishta dhe tensioneve politike mes partive, nd\u00ebrthuren edhe interesat hegjemonike dhe gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb agresive t\u00eb shteteve autoritare si Rusia, Turqia dhe t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme. Nj\u00eb eksperiment i amerikan\u00ebve me presidentin Trump do t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte problem sidomos tani n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb koh\u00eb, kur ndikimi i BE-s\u00eb mbi Ballkanin po bie si rrjedhoj\u00eb e kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb saj t\u00eb brendshme.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rendi nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar qysh prej fundit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore mbahet mbi supet e aleanc\u00ebs ushtarake t\u00eb NATO-s, e cila p\u00ebrve\u00e7 se sh\u00ebrben si mburoj\u00eb e siguris\u00eb e vendeve an\u00ebtare p\u00ebrmes parimit t\u00eb mbrojtjes s\u00eb nd\u00ebrsjell\u00eb \u2013 siguri e cila prej shum\u00ebkujt sot merret si e mir\u00ebqen\u00eb \u2013 nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht \u00ebsht\u00eb promovuese e projektit ideologjik p\u00ebr ta zgjeruar hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn e liris\u00eb dhe p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb rend nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb bazuar mbi vlerat demokratike t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrive themeluese t\u00eb aleanc\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Projekt komplementar i k\u00ebtij rendi liberal ishte integrimi i Europ\u00ebs p\u00ebrmes institucionit i cili evoluoi n\u00eb BE-n\u00eb e sotme \u2013 nj\u00eb treg i p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt me institucione politike pan-europiane.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zgjerimi i NATO-s dhe i BE-s\u00eb n\u00eb ish-zonat e interesit t\u00eb Bashkimit Sovjetik ka koh\u00eb q\u00eb konsiderohet nga Vladimir Putin si k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi kryesor p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb dhe fuqin\u00eb e Rusis\u00eb (apo m\u00eb sakt\u00eb, si k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim p\u00ebr regjimin e tij, t\u00eb cilin Putin e barazon me Rusin\u00eb).<\/span><\/p>\n

Pik\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb k\u00ebtij k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi, si dhe p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs ekonomike t\u00eb shkaktuar nga r\u00ebnia e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe sanksionet e per\u00ebndimit, Putin ka hapur fronte t\u00eb shumta konfliktesh me per\u00ebndimin (kryesisht n\u00eb form\u00ebn e luft\u00ebrave proxy n\u00eb vende t\u00eb treta,\u00a0p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat pata shkruar m\u00eb her\u00ebt<\/a>).<\/span><\/p>\n

Synimi strategjik i Putin-it \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb ta trazoj\u00eb stabilitetin e brendsh\u00ebm t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7aj\u00eb aleanc\u00ebn e NATO-s deri n\u00eb pik\u00ebn ku ato do t\u00eb b\u00ebheshin joefektive p\u00ebr t\u00eb vepruar kund\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb synim Putin po i p\u00ebrdor\u00eb me mjesht\u00ebri p\u00ebr\u00e7arjet politike brenda shteteve dhe mes shteteve per\u00ebndimore.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q\u00eb disa vite ai \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb ofensiv\u00eb p\u00ebrmes aparatit t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimeve sekrete dhe fuqis\u00eb financiare t\u00eb oligark\u00ebve t\u00eb tij. Mediat raportojn\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00a0financimet q\u00eb u jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb l\u00ebvizjeve radikale t\u00eb majta e t\u00eb djathta gjithandej Europ\u00ebs<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb cilat shprehen kund\u00ebr BE-s\u00eb apo edhe NATO-s (p\u00ebrfshi, p\u00ebr shembull partin\u00eb e Marie Le Pen n\u00eb Franc\u00eb).<\/span><\/p>\n

Zhvillimet dramatike t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb fundit n\u00eb Europ\u00eb \u2013 si kriza e refugjat\u00ebve sirian\u00eb q\u00eb e forcoi t\u00eb djatht\u00ebn ekstreme n\u00eb BE, dalja e Britanis\u00eb s\u00eb Madhe nga BE dhe p\u00ebrpjekja p\u00ebr pu\u00e7 ushtarak n\u00eb Turqi (e cila i rriti f\u00ebrkimet mes k\u00ebtij vendi tep\u00ebr t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm t\u00eb NATO-s dhe SHBA-ve) \u2013 mendohet ta ken\u00eb lumturuar tej mase liderin rus.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, qershia mbi tort\u00eb n\u00eb strategjin\u00eb e Putinit p\u00ebr destabilizimin e per\u00ebndimit \u00ebsht\u00eb pa dyshim fitorja e mundshme e Donald Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pas nd\u00ebrhyrjes n\u00eb server\u00ebt e Partis\u00eb Demokratike t\u00eb SHBA dhe botimit t\u00eb e-mailave komprometues, nj\u00eb aksion q\u00eb dyshohet t\u00eb jet\u00eb kryer nga sh\u00ebrbimi rus i zbulimit, jav\u00ebt e fundit ka pasur raportime t\u00eb pareshtura p\u00ebr\u00a0lidhjet e dyshimta t\u00eb Trump dhe rrethit t\u00eb tij me regjimin e Putin-it.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb fakt i njohur se Trump ka simpati p\u00ebr stilin autoritar t\u00eb liderit rus, t\u00eb cilin e ka vler\u00ebsuar edhe publikisht.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kulmi i dyshimeve mbi afrin\u00eb ideologjike mes Trump dhe Putin u arrit jav\u00ebn q\u00eb shkoi me dy deklarata t\u00eb Trump t\u00eb cilat pa dyshim se do ta nokautonin nj\u00eb kandidat presidencial t\u00eb SHBA n\u00eb \u00e7far\u00ebdo cikli normal zgjedhor t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump s\u00eb pari i b\u00ebri thirrje Rusis\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019i zbuloj\u00eb e-mailat e Hillary Clinton, duke i b\u00ebr\u00eb shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz t\u00eb pyesin n\u00ebse kishte baz\u00eb t\u00eb mjaftueshme ligjore p\u00ebr t\u00eb ngre aktakuz\u00eb ndaj Trump p\u00ebr tradhti komb\u00ebtare!<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u00eb dyti, Trump p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb vuri n\u00eb dyshim parimin e mbrojtjes s\u00eb nd\u00ebrsjell\u00eb t\u00eb NATO-s, duke th\u00ebn\u00eb se SHBA-t\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb garantonin mbrojtjen e aleat\u00ebve (atyre q\u00eb nuk kontribuojn\u00eb mjaftuesh\u00ebm n\u00eb aleanc\u00eb) nga nj\u00eb sulm i mundsh\u00ebm. Madje nga kampi i tij u tha se SHBA-t\u00eb edhe do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb njihnin okupimin e Krimes\u00eb nga ana e Rusis\u00eb, i cili edhe ishte shkas p\u00ebr sanksionet e sotme t\u00eb per\u00ebndimit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusia nuk shihet nga Trump si armik strategjik (p\u00ebr dallim nga kandidati paraprak republikan Romney, i cili e konsideronte si armikun kryesor gjeostrategjik). Fokusi i politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb Trump (n\u00ebse mund t\u00eb konsiderohet se ka di\u00e7ka t\u00eb till\u00eb) kufizohet te rreziku nga Shteti Islamik, sepse p\u00ebrqendrimi te terrorizmi t\u00ebrheq m\u00eb shum\u00eb vota.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb fitore e Trump pa dyshim do ta krijonte nj\u00eb situat\u00eb krejt t\u00eb paparashikueshme t\u00eb siguris\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00eb Lindore, sidomos n\u00eb Ballkan e n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, ku arkitektura e siguris\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetet mbi mburoj\u00ebn e aleanc\u00ebs s\u00eb NATO-s.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb prej r\u00ebnies s\u00eb komunizmit, do t\u2019i hapeshin dyert Mosk\u00ebs dhe satelit\u00ebve t\u00eb saj, por edhe fuqive t\u00eb tjera rajonale me ambicie hegjemonike, p\u00ebr t\u00eb dominuar agjend\u00ebn e rajonit.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye zgjedhjet n\u00eb SHBA me gjas\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme dhe me pesh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr rajonin ton\u00eb, q\u00eb historikisht ka tendenc\u00eb t\u00eb merret nga dallg\u00ebt tektonike t\u00eb\u00a0fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, sesa vet\u00eb zgjedhjet brenda shteteve tona.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mjafton ta kujtojm\u00eb periudh\u00ebn pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb, kur ballist\u00ebt e partizan\u00ebt ziheshin p\u00ebr dominim, por hartat e rajonit vizatoheshin n\u00eb Jalt\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00ebmendja e mediave bot\u00ebrore dhe e atyre kosovare, me t\u00eb drejt\u00eb k\u00ebto jav\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb kthyer drejt SHBA-ve, ku ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb faz\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb fundit (tre mujore) fushata zgjedhore p\u00ebr president\/e, si dhe p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb kongresit dhe senatit. Zgjedhjet p\u00ebr president\/e pa dyshim se jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr ne, meq\u00eb presidenca […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":438,"featured_media":11547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1043,664,637,656],"ppma_author":[985],"class_list":["post-3248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-be","tag-kosovo","tag-nato","tag-usa"],"authors":[{"term_id":985,"user_id":438,"is_guest":0,"slug":"agon-maliqi","display_name":"Agon Maliqi","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Headshot-copy-3-1-scaled-e1721289936673.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Headshot-copy-3-1-scaled-e1721289936673.jpeg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Maliqi","first_name":"Agon","description":"Agon Maliqi \u00ebsht\u00eb studiues, analist dhe aktivist i shoq\u00ebris\u00eb civile nga Prishtina, me banim n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb. Prej disa vitesh ai punon si k\u00ebshill\u00ebtar dhe studies i pavarur i \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve t\u00eb siguris\u00eb, paqes dhe demokracis\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor p\u00ebr nj\u00eb mori institutesh, organizatash dhe mediash vendase dhe nd\u00ebrkomb\u00eb\u00ebtare. Si aktivist i shoq\u00ebris\u00eb civile t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs p\u00ebr thuajse 20 vite, zt. Maliqi mes tjerash ka qen\u00eb bashk\u00ebthemelues dhe drejtues per disa vite i platform\u00ebs sbunker. N\u00eb vitin 2019 ai q\u00ebndroi p\u00ebr gjysm\u00eb viti n\u00eb Uashington D.C si p\u00ebrfitues i Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fello\u00ebship n\u00eb Fondin Komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Demokracis\u00eb (NED) n\u00eb SHBA. Sot ai \u00ebsht\u00eb pjes\u00eb e Grupit Strategjik p\u00ebr Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor t\u00eb Fondacionit Heinrich B\u00f6ll (HBS) me baz\u00eb n\u00eb Berlin; pjes\u00eb e Task Forc\u00ebs rajonale t\u00eb Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor t\u00eb Institutit Republikan Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar (IRI) dhe an\u00ebtar i Koalicionit Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar p\u00ebr Rip\u00ebrt\u00ebritje Demokratike (ICDR) t\u00eb Forumit 2000 n\u00eb Prag\u00eb. Zt. Maliqi ka mbaruar studimet master p\u00ebr politikat e zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar n\u00eb Duke University (SHBA) dhe ato bachelor p\u00ebr shkenca politike dhe marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb Universitetin Amerikan n\u00eb Bullgari."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/438"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3248"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3248\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11597,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3248\/revisions\/11597"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3248"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=3248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}