{"id":3313,"date":"2016-10-31T16:26:47","date_gmt":"2016-10-31T14:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=3313"},"modified":"2024-12-10T16:28:50","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T14:28:50","slug":"ani-cka-qe-kemi-deficit-te-thelle-tregtar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/ani-cka-qe-kemi-deficit-te-thelle-tregtar\/","title":{"rendered":"Ani \u00e7ka q\u00eb kemi deficit t\u00eb thell\u00eb tregtar?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00cbsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsim i p\u00ebrjetsh\u00ebm i shum\u00eb kosovar\u00ebve q\u00eb deficiti tregtar i Kosov\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb i thell\u00eb. Zakonisht shqet\u00ebsimi q\u00ebndron tek ideja q\u00eb deficiti po tregon se ekonomia e Kosov\u00ebs bazohet kryesisht n\u00eb importe dhe shum\u00eb pak n\u00eb prodhim. Argumenti vazhdon q\u00eb prodhimi \u00ebsht\u00eb shtylla kryesore e nj\u00eb ekonomie. Nd\u00ebrsa, importi \u00ebsht\u00eb shenj\u00eb e dob\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb saj. Gjithashtu \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe shqet\u00ebsimi q\u00eb p\u00ebrmes importeve, ne po i lejojm\u00eb parat\u00eb tona t\u00eb dalin nga vendi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Por edhe ky shqet\u00ebsim, si shum\u00eb e shum\u00eb shqet\u00ebsime tjera, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb unik kosovar. Pothuajse t\u00eb gjitha vendet n\u00eb bot\u00eb ballafaqohen me shqet\u00ebsime t\u00eb tilla. Mjafton nj\u00eb k\u00ebrkim n\u00eb google, dhe e gjitha b\u00ebhet e qart\u00eb. N\u00ebse rast\u00ebsisht nuk je njeri i \u2018teknologjis\u00eb\u2019, mjafton t\u00eb d\u00ebgjosh lajmet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Kandidati republikan p\u00ebr president n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs, Donald Trump, gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb koh\u00ebs luan me kart\u00ebn q\u00eb SHBA po humb shum\u00eb nga deficiti tregtar. Zgjedhja sipas tij? Zvog\u00eblimi i deficitit tregtar duke rinegociuar marr\u00ebveshjet tregtare (lexo: duke penguar importin dhe stimuluar eksportin).<\/p>\n

Por nuk kam \u00e7far\u00eb t\u00eb merrem me Amerik\u00eb. As Donald Trump as amerikan\u00ebt nuk do ta lexojn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb shkrim. Le t\u2019i kthehemi Kosov\u00ebs, me shpres\u00eb q\u00eb dikush k\u00ebtu do t\u00eb jet\u00eb lexues. Pa dyshim, deficiti tregtar n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb i madh, dhe mbi t\u00eb gjitha n\u00eb rritje e sip\u00ebr. Grafika e m\u00ebposhtme e tregon k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb m\u00ebse t\u00eb qart\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Zakonisht edhe k\u00ebtu p\u00ebrfundon diskutimi p\u00ebr deficitin tregtar. Konkluzioni \u00ebsht\u00eb definitiv dhe pa asnj\u00eb dyshim: deficiti po rritet, e bashk\u00eb me t\u00eb edhe ekonomia po zhytet thell\u00eb e m\u00eb thell\u00eb n\u00eb kriz\u00eb. At\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb dua te argumentoj n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb shkrim \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb ky, normalisht, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb fundi i diskutimit. Sa p\u00ebr fillim, po deficiti mund t\u00eb duket i thell\u00eb, por n\u00eb fakt ai nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb duke u rritur. Vet\u00ebm se p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb konkluzion, duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim nivelin e mbulimit t\u00eb importeve nga eksportet. N\u00eb vitin 2005 Kosova kishte importuar pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 20 her\u00eb sesa kishte eksportuar. Kjo shif\u00ebr n\u00eb 2015 \u00ebsht\u00eb \u2018vet\u00ebm\u2019 8. N\u00eb pes\u00eb vitet e fundit, shihet nj\u00eblloj normalizimi i k\u00ebtij raporti. Nd\u00ebrsa si konkluzion t\u00eb par\u00eb mund t\u00eb themi q\u00eb matja e deficitit tregtar n\u00eb vlera absolute \u00ebsht\u00eb definitivisht matje e cila shpie n\u00eb drejtim t\u00eb gabuar. Edhe sikur t\u00eb funksionojm\u00eb me logjiken q\u00eb deficiti tregtar duhet t\u00eb ulet n\u00eb minimum, apo t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb suficit, matja e tij n\u00eb vler\u00eb absolute \u00ebsht\u00eb gabim i cili nuk thot\u00eb gj\u00eb p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb (edhe pse thot\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr p\u00ebrdoruesin). N\u00eb fund t\u00eb fundit, aq sa importojm\u00eb duhet t\u00eb eksportojm\u00eb (n\u00ebse jo m\u00eb shum\u00eb eksport), dhe k\u00ebt\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb na e jep raporti nd\u00ebrmjet k\u00ebtyre dyjave dhe jo vlera absolute.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb paragrafin m\u00eb lart, fjal\u00ebn vet\u00ebm e futa n\u00eb thonj\u00ebza. Arsyeja p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se fjala vet\u00ebm ka kuptim n\u00eb kontekst ku diferenca ka r\u00ebn\u00eb nga 20 n\u00eb 8, por megjithat\u00eb deficiti tregtar i matur edhe si mbulueshm\u00ebri vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb tejet i lart\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb thuhet \u2018vet\u00ebm 8\u2019. Por prap\u00eb, k\u00ebtu nuk p\u00ebrfundon diskutimi. Kur flasim p\u00ebr raport tregtar n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, zakonisht marrim parasysh vet\u00ebm tregtin\u00eb e mallrave por jo edhe t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimeve. Nuk ka arsye pse t\u00eb mos futen edhe sh\u00ebrbimet n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn shif\u00ebr me mallrat. Kur e b\u00ebjm\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb, marrim nj\u00eb pamje tjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr deficitin tregtar.<\/p>\n

Pra, duke llogaritur edhe sh\u00ebrbimet si pjes\u00eb t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb, shohim q\u00eb n\u00eb fakt deficiti \u00ebsht\u00eb pak m\u00eb i vog\u00ebl se \u00e7\u2019shpesh paraqitet. Nd\u00ebrsa n\u00ebse i shohim vet\u00ebm sh\u00ebrbimet n\u00eb pes\u00eb vitet e fundit, at\u00ebher\u00eb shohim se bilanci \u00ebsht\u00eb pozitiv dhe Kosova eksporton prej 1.7 deri ne 2 her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa \u00e7\u2019importon sh\u00ebrbime.<\/p>\n

Mir\u00eb, kjo na jep nj\u00eb pamje m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb balancit tregtar, por ende nuk iu kemi p\u00ebrgjigjur pyetjes n\u00eb titull: ani \u00e7ka q\u00eb deficiti tregtar \u00ebsht\u00eb i thell\u00eb? P\u00ebr t\u2019iu p\u00ebrgjigjur k\u00ebsaj pyetjeje, m\u00eb lejoni t\u00eb marrim nj\u00eb shembull. Supozoni q\u00eb nj\u00eb vend (Kosova) \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb person. Ai person punon dhe n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim p\u00ebr pun\u00ebn merr para, pra \u2018eksporton\u2019 nj\u00eb sh\u00ebrbim dhe \u2018importon\u2019 para. Me ato para, ky person blen mallra \u2013 pra \u2018eksporton\u2019 para dhe \u2018importon\u2019 mallra. Zakonisht, bilanci \u00ebsht\u00eb zero \u2013 pra aq sa merr (importon), aq jep (eksporton). Ka raste q\u00eb nj\u00ebra \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe se tjetra. Rast ideal p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb edukimi. Gjat\u00eb shkollimit, ai person \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb deficit tregtar p\u00ebr shkak se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb duke punuar (eksportuar) por \u00ebsht\u00eb duke konsumuar dhe duke paguar shkollimin. Nga vjen ky financim? Ose nga kursimet (q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa borxhi q\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt t\u00eb i kan\u00eb atij), nga kredit\u00eb, apo vullneti i mir\u00eb i daj\u00ebs nga Gjermania q\u00eb vendos t\u00eb paguaj\u00eb p\u00ebr shkollimin. Sido q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb, n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb disbalanc prap\u00eb bilanci i pagesave \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00eb \u2013 pra zero \u2013 t\u00eb hyrat dhe t\u00eb dalat jan\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjta.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb kthehemi n\u00eb nivel shteti. E nj\u00ebjta q\u00eb u aplikua tek personi m\u00eb lart aplikohet edhe n\u00eb nivel shteti, me nj\u00eb dallim t\u00eb vet\u00ebm q\u00eb terminologjia \u00ebsht\u00eb ndryshe dhe pak m\u00eb komplekse. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb parave, n\u00eb nivel shteti flasim p\u00ebr kapital. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb pagesave nga daja n\u00eb Gjermani, flasim p\u00ebr remitanca apo pjes\u00ebrisht t\u00eb ardhura sekondare (t\u00eb ardhurat primare jan\u00eb nga vet\u00eb qytetar\u00ebt q\u00eb punojn\u00eb jasht\u00eb dhe i kthejn\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb). N\u00eb vend t\u00eb investimit n\u00eb arsim, flasim p\u00ebr investime t\u00eb huaja direkte, investime t\u00eb portfolios, e t\u00eb tjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00ebjt\u00eb si balanci i pagesave i personit fiktiv, edhe p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn balanci i pagesave \u00ebsht\u00eb zero. Duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb zero p\u00ebr \u00e7do vend, n\u00eb fakt. Meq\u00eb balanci tregtar \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr komponent\u00ebt e balancit t\u00eb pagesave, deficiti n\u00eb bilanc tregtar do t\u00eb thot\u00eb suficit n\u00eb komponent\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb. M\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrmendurat\/r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmet e k\u00ebtyre komponent\u00ebve t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb jan\u00eb remitancat dhe investimet e huaja direkte \u2013 dhe n\u00eb t\u00eb dyja k\u00ebto Kosova \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb suficit. Pra, kemi rreth 695 milion euro net remitanca vet\u00ebm n\u00eb vitin 2015 dhe rreth 271 milion euro n\u00eb net investime kapitale.<\/p>\n

E meq\u00eb kemi m\u00eb shum\u00eb para q\u00eb hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb se\u00e7 dalin prej saj, domosdoshm\u00ebrisht do t\u00eb kemi m\u00eb shum\u00eb mallra q\u00eb hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb se\u00e7 dalin prej saj. \u00cbsht\u00eb matematik\u00eb e thjesht\u00eb e kontabilitetit. Dhe kjo shihet m\u00eb s\u00eb miri n\u00ebse shohim deficitin tregtar t\u00eb ndar\u00eb n\u00eb terme tremujor\u00ebsh n\u00eb vend se n\u00eb vite. Nga grafiku m\u00eb posht\u00eb, shihet qart\u00eb q\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb (Korrik \u2013 Shtator) \u00ebsht\u00eb deficiti m\u00eb i lart\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb vizitave t\u00eb shumta t\u00eb diaspor\u00ebs dhe si rrjedhoj\u00eb edhe e remitancave; nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb (Janar \u2013 Mars) deficiti tregtar \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i cekti, p\u00ebr shkak se n\u00eb at\u00eb periudh\u00eb nuk ka shum\u00eb remitanca.<\/p>\n

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T\u00eb kthehemi edhe nj\u00eb her\u00eb tek pyetja e titullit dhe t\u00eb konkludojm\u00eb: ani \u00e7ka q\u00eb kemi deficit t\u00eb thell\u00eb tregtar? Deficiti tregtar na tregon shum\u00eb p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb indikator shum\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm, por n\u00eb vetvete nuk thot\u00eb asgj\u00eb. Pra, deficiti tregtar nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb asgj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u shqet\u00ebsuar. \u00c7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u shqet\u00ebsuar \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo \u00e7far\u00eb ne b\u00ebjm\u00eb me kapitalin q\u00eb hyn n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb apo form\u00ebs s\u00eb tij. Deficiti tregtar nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aspak shqet\u00ebsues; shqet\u00ebsues \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti q\u00eb ne eksportojm\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb jasht\u00eb vendit, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt pastaj kthejn\u00eb n\u00eb Kosove para t\u00eb gatshme apo remitanca. Pra, shqet\u00ebsues \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti q\u00eb Kosova nuk mund t\u2019i ofroj\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb saj: nj\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb dhe vende pune. Kjo nuk ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb asgj\u00eb me deficitin tregtar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Gjithashtu, shqet\u00ebsuese \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti q\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e k\u00ebtyre remitancave p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr konsum n\u00eb vend se t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren si investim. E kjo na redukton neve n\u00eb parazit\u00eb q\u00eb konsumojm\u00eb me para t\u00eb pun\u00ebtoreve tan\u00eb jasht\u00eb vendit p\u00ebrderisa ne nuk mendojm\u00eb t\u00eb investojm\u00eb ato para q\u00eb t\u00eb krijojm\u00eb mund\u00ebsi m\u00eb t\u00eb mira p\u00ebr gjeneratat e ardhshme. Edhe kjo s\u2019ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb asgj\u00eb me deficitin tregtar. Shqet\u00ebsues \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti q\u00eb investimet e huaja direkte nuk jan\u00eb edhe aq shum\u00eb investime produktive. Shqet\u00ebsues \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti q\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2015, 61% e investimeve t\u00eb huaja direkte ishin investuar n\u00eb patundshm\u00ebri, nd\u00ebrsa minus 1% ishin investuar n\u00eb bujq\u00ebsi, miniera, industri dhe energjetik\u00eb s\u00eb bashku. Minus p\u00ebr faktin se jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb nuk ka pasur investime, por ka pasur disinvestime. E kjo pra nuk ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb asgj\u00eb me deficitin tregtar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cbsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsim i p\u00ebrjetsh\u00ebm i shum\u00eb kosovar\u00ebve q\u00eb deficiti tregtar i Kosov\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb i thell\u00eb. Zakonisht shqet\u00ebsimi q\u00ebndron tek ideja q\u00eb deficiti po tregon se ekonomia e Kosov\u00ebs bazohet kryesisht n\u00eb importe dhe shum\u00eb pak n\u00eb prodhim. Argumenti vazhdon q\u00eb prodhimi \u00ebsht\u00eb shtylla kryesore e nj\u00eb ekonomie. Nd\u00ebrsa, importi \u00ebsht\u00eb shenj\u00eb e dob\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":259,"featured_media":10864,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1995,1006,972],"ppma_author":[1983],"class_list":["post-3313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-deficit-tregtar","tag-ekonomi","tag-kosove"],"authors":[{"term_id":1983,"user_id":259,"is_guest":0,"slug":"dren-pozhegu","display_name":"Dren Pozhegu","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/drenp.png","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/drenp.png"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Pozhegu","first_name":"Dren","description":"Dren Pozhegu \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebnkryetari i partis\u00eb DT Global."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/259"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3313"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10865,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313\/revisions\/10865"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3313"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=3313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}