{"id":3435,"date":"2018-04-19T09:32:29","date_gmt":"2018-04-19T07:32:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=3435"},"modified":"2024-10-17T15:02:16","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T13:02:16","slug":"si-te-menaxhohet-dialogu-me-serbine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/opinion\/si-te-menaxhohet-dialogu-me-serbine\/","title":{"rendered":"Si t\u00eb menaxhohet dialogu me Serbin\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Si t\u00eb menaxhohet dialogu me Serbin\u00eb<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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Po paralajm\u00ebrohet se negociatat me Serbin\u00eb, pas shtat\u00eb vitesh, po hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb faze t\u00eb re dhe si\u00e7 po thuhet nga t\u00eb dy pal\u00ebt po shkojn\u00eb kah finalja. Pritjet dhe q\u00ebllimet e Kosov\u00ebs dhe Serbis\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme, bile deri n\u00eb antagoniz\u00ebm. Ky antagoniz\u00ebm shp\u00ebrfaqet edhe me rezultatet e deritashme, sidomos n\u00eb zbatimin e marr\u00ebveshjeve t\u00eb arritura.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrdorimi i teknik\u00ebs s\u00eb skenar\u00ebve, p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasqyruar rrjedhat potenciale lidhur me fenomenet politike, ekonomike e biznesore, n\u00eb kushte t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlikuara dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrcjella me pasiguri \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb metod\u00eb dhe teknik\u00eb e rekomanduar p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtimin e strategjis\u00eb politike apo ekonomike. Natyrisht q\u00eb skenar\u00ebt dalin si rezultat i nj\u00eb analize\u00a0t\u00eb gjithanshme t\u00eb faktor\u00ebve relevant\u00eb \u00a0politik\u00eb, ekonomik\u00eb, legjislativ\u00eb, dhe faktor\u00ebve tjer\u00eb q\u00eb shp\u00ebrfaqin ndikimet e mjedisit n\u00eb ngjarje t\u00eb caktuara. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb aspekt skenar\u00ebt p\u00ebrvijohen n\u00eb form\u00eb t\u00eb pasqyrimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb gjendjeje t\u00eb re q\u00eb krijohet si rezultat e veprimit t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhur t\u00eb faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb caktuar. Dhe ajo gjendje mund t\u00eb pasqyrohet dhe p\u00ebrshkruhet edhe si nj\u00eb rr\u00ebfim dhe tregim.<\/p>\n

Skenar\u00ebt e prezantuar, me raportin e publikuar k\u00ebto dit\u00eb nga BPGR dhe RIDEA n\u00eb finale t\u00eb negociatave me Serbin\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshij\u00eb (1) \u201cStatus kuo \u201c me variantin e tij edhe n\u00eb form\u00eb t\u00eb \u201cprit dhe shiko\u201d (nd\u00ebrprerje); (2) N\u00ebnshkrimi i nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebse p\u00ebr normalizim me njohje reciproke dhe me variantin \u201cSerbia e pranon shtet\u00ebsin\u00eb dhe an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimin e Kosov\u00ebs n\u00eb OKB p\u00ebr formalisht nuk e njeh pavar\u00ebsin\u00eb e Kosov\u00ebs\u201d (3). Rirregullimi kufitar (territorial). N\u00eb intervistat q\u00eb kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb autor\u00ebt (rreth 100 respondent\u00eb) kuptohet m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti aderues ka marr\u00eb skenari 2. Por se a do te ndodh\u00eb ai skenar apo t\u00eb tjer\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje q\u00eb do analiz\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebtejme. Natyrisht q\u00eb skenar\u00ebt e prezantuar jan\u00eb potencialisht t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm, por mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb edhe variante t\u00eb tjera dhe kombinime t\u00eb ndryshme nga skenar\u00ebt potencial\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse skenar\u00ebt b\u00ebhen p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb strategji p\u00ebrkat\u00ebse q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshij\u00eb politika p\u00ebr t\u2019ju p\u00ebrgjigjur sfidave q\u00eb mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb secili nga skenar\u00ebt alternativ\u00eb dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr rrjedhat kah skenari i d\u00ebshiruar, at\u00ebher\u00eb nevojitet q\u00eb n\u00eb pun\u00ebn e m\u00ebtejme t\u00eb thellohet analiza se cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb do t\u00eb determinojn\u00eb rrjedh\u00ebn e ngjarjeve, q\u00eb n\u00eb teorin\u00eb dhe praktik\u00ebn e skenar\u00ebve njihen si \u201ckey drivers of change\u201d, pra faktor\u00ebt determinues t\u00eb ndryshimeve. \u00a0T\u00eb till\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb shum\u00eb var\u00ebsisht nga aktor\u00ebt, mjedisi dhe natyra e problemit. Lidhur me rezultatet e dialogut Kosov\u00eb-Serbi padyshim q\u00eb mund t\u00eb identifikohen nj\u00eb ser\u00eb faktor\u00ebsh, por nga ajo seri duket se jan\u00eb dy faktor\u00eb ky\u00e7 determinues, q\u00eb kur vihen n\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhje me nj\u00ebri tjetrin p\u00ebrvijojn\u00eb skenar\u00ebt e mundsh\u00ebm ( \u201cplausible\u201d). P\u00ebr ta thjesht\u00ebsuar situat\u00ebn k\u00ebtu ne po marrim dy faktor\u00eb ky\u00e7\u00eb q\u00eb sipas t\u00eb gjitha gjasave do t\u00eb determinojn\u00eb rrjedhat dhe rezultatet e dialogut.<\/p>\n

I pari \u00ebsht\u00eb i lidhur me situat\u00ebn gjeopolitike, situat\u00ebn globale, tentimet e Rusis\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb rris\u00eb ndikimin e saj n\u00eb rajon dhe loj\u00ebn q\u00eb b\u00ebn Serbia ne relacionet Rusi-BE, ose th\u00ebn\u00eb me thjesht\u00eb rrjedhat do t\u00eb determinohen edhe nga fakti se sa strukturat Euroatlantike dhe faktor\u00ebt pro Veriatlantik n\u00eb rajon do t\u00eb mbajn\u00eb situat\u00ebn n\u00ebn kontroll dhe evitojn\u00eb tendencat e Rusis\u00eb dhe dualitetin e ambiguitetin e politik\u00ebs s\u00eb Serbis\u00eb. Faktori i dyt\u00eb ky\u00e7, determinues, \u00ebsht\u00eb situata jon\u00eb e brendshme \u2013 stabiliteti politik, funksionimi demokratik i institucioneve, zbatimi i ligjit edhe aft\u00ebsia p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar konsensus midis forcave politike n\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjet me interes nacional. Prandaj p\u00ebrtej p\u00ebrvijimit t\u00eb skenar\u00ebve, \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme q\u00eb akter\u00ebt ton\u00eb politik\u00eb t\u00eb vet\u00ebdijesohen p\u00ebr situat\u00ebn delikate dhe q\u00eb me veprime t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegjshme t\u00eb eksploatojn\u00eb mund\u00ebsit\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndikuar n\u00eb zhvillimet q\u00eb lidhen me faktor\u00ebt ky\u00e7\u00eb \u00a0determinues. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb aft\u00ebsi e politik\u00ebb\u00ebrjes q\u00eb maksimalizon rezultatin e dialogut duke p\u00ebrfituar nga zhvillimet pozitive dhe duke minimizuar rrisqet nga zhvillimet negative.<\/p>\n

Si rezultat i nd\u00ebrveprimit t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre dy boshteve mund t\u00eb realizohen skenar\u00eb t\u00eb volitsh\u00ebm, pjes\u00ebrisht t\u00eb volitsh\u00ebm, ose t\u00eb d\u00ebmsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn. K\u00ebshtu p\u00ebr shembull, n\u00ebse t\u00eb dy faktor\u00ebt (situata gjeopolitike e mir\u00eb, Rusia nuk e rrit ndikimin n\u00eb rajon dhe situata politike n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb stabile merr rrug\u00eb stabiliteti dhe n\u00ebse klasa politike e aft\u00eb p\u00ebr konsensus dhe p\u00ebr te servisuar aleanc\u00ebn veriatlantike, at\u00ebher\u00eb skenari m\u00eb i volitsh\u00ebm ka gjasa reale t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb. N\u00ebse gj\u00ebrat l\u00ebviz\u00ebn me situata t\u00eb p\u00ebrziera do t\u00eb ndodhin skenar\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb volitsh\u00ebm dhe n\u00ebse n\u00eb t\u00eb dy boshtet situat\u00eb zhvillohen jo n\u00eb favor t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs, at\u00ebher\u00eb skenar\u00ebt shkojn\u00eb kah drejtimi q\u00eb do Serbia.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse marrim si t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb se ne mund t\u00eb ndikojm\u00eb pak ose hi\u00e7 n\u00eb rrafshin q\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebn boshtin gjeopolitik dhe gjithashtu n\u00ebse kemi parasysh faktin se gjasat jan\u00eb q\u00eb strukturat variatlantike do ta ruajn\u00eb primatin n\u00eb rajon, se ato do t\u00eb kontrollojn\u00eb dhe evitojn\u00eb tendenc\u00ebn e infiltrimit nga Rusia, at\u00ebher\u00eb preokupimi yn\u00eb duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb me shum\u00eb me krijimin e situat\u00ebs m\u00eb t\u00eb volitshme q\u00eb lidhet me boshtin e dyt\u00eb. Ajo q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb ne lidhur me boshtin e par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb ta kultivojn\u00eb e forcojm\u00eb partneritetin veriatlantik t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs, duke mos e d\u00ebmtuar at\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rrjedhave t\u00eb brendshme dhe duke evituar \u00e7far\u00ebdo premisash t\u00eb infiltrimit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb edhe n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb. Nj\u00eb rrezik k\u00ebtu u evitua me ratifikimin e demarkacionit me Malin e Zi.<\/p>\n

E n\u00eb boshtin e dyt\u00eb ka v\u00ebrtet shum\u00eb pun\u00eb, situata e tanishme nuk e volitshme p\u00ebr ne. Si pik\u00eb e par\u00eb \u2013 forcat politike duhet t\u00eb heqin dor\u00eb nga eksploatimi i problemeve tona me Serbin\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e brendshme politike e partiake, pra luft\u00ebn primitive politike p\u00ebr pushtet edhe t\u00eb evitojm\u00eb situata q\u00eb shprehen me destabilizim t\u00eb vendit. N\u00ebse nj\u00eb klas\u00eb politike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e aft\u00eb ose nuk do t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb konsensus nacional \u00a0lidhur me raportet me Serbin\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb ajo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e denj\u00eb ta udh\u00ebheq\u00eb vendin e as partit\u00eb e caktuara politike, pasi q\u00eb ky fakt mund ta b\u00ebj\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn t\u00eb l\u00ebndueshme n\u00eb rrjedhat e dialogut. N\u00eb at\u00eb situat\u00eb, p\u00ebrfitimet nga skenar\u00ebt e volitsh\u00ebm e potencialisht t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikuara seriozisht.<\/p>\n

Po kaq t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme jan\u00eb edhe aspektet e funksionimit t\u00eb institucioneve demokratike dhe gjyq\u00ebsorit p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbatuar ligjin dhe evituar incidentet, dhe krizat q\u00eb po na p\u00ebrcjellin. Demonstrimi i aft\u00ebsive p\u00ebr konsolidim t\u00eb shtetit dhe funksionim t\u00eb tij n\u00eb secil\u00ebn situate ka nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb ngrihet n\u00eb nivel shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb. Avarit\u00eb q\u00eb po i shohim k\u00ebto dit\u00eb duhet t\u00eb riparohen. Pjes\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00ebse e konsolidimit t\u00eb rrjedhave n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb bosht \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe publiciteti dhe marketingu politik, komunikimi me opinion e brendsh\u00ebm dhe t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm. Serbia po i paraqet k\u00ebto biseda si gjoja negociata p\u00ebr zgjidhjen e \u00e7\u00ebshtjes s\u00eb statusit, kurse ne po i paraqesim si negociata p\u00ebr normalizim t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve midis dy vendeve. Por Serbia po ka sukses q\u00eb t\u00eb sfidoj\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn dhe tek njohjet e pavar\u00ebsis\u00eb nga disa vende, pik\u00ebrisht duke eskploatuar edhe negociatat. Pastaj p\u00ebr moszbatim t\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeve t\u00eb arritura n\u00eb Bruksel, dy pal\u00ebt akuzohen nj\u00ebsoj e dihet se ajo q\u00eb b\u00ebn opstrukcion \u00ebsht\u00eb Serbia. Ne e kemi neglizhuar shum\u00eb publicitetin politik, politik\u00ebn e komunikimet aktive me bot\u00ebn dhe nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u2019iu kund\u00ebrv\u00ebn\u00eb propagand\u00ebs serbe. E \u00e7uditshme kur t\u00eb gjitha argumentet jan\u00eb n\u00eb an\u00ebn ton\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb debat i angazhuar p\u00ebr k\u00ebto \u00e7\u00ebshtje \u00ebsht\u00eb i mir\u00ebseardhur dhe i nevojsh\u00ebm. P\u00ebrndryshe mund ta z\u00ebn\u00eb befasit\u00eb dhe at\u00eb: t\u00eb pap\u00ebrgatitur dhe t\u00eb \u00e7uditur nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Si t\u00eb menaxhohet dialogu me Serbin\u00eb Po paralajm\u00ebrohet se negociatat me Serbin\u00eb, pas shtat\u00eb vitesh, po hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb faze t\u00eb re dhe si\u00e7 po thuhet nga t\u00eb dy pal\u00ebt po shkojn\u00eb kah finalja. Pritjet dhe q\u00ebllimet e Kosov\u00ebs dhe Serbis\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme, bile deri n\u00eb antagoniz\u00ebm. Ky antagoniz\u00ebm shp\u00ebrfaqet edhe me rezultatet e […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":321,"featured_media":8392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[669,664,548,12],"ppma_author":[333],"class_list":["post-3435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-dialogue","tag-kosovo","tag-politics","tag-serbia"],"authors":[{"term_id":333,"user_id":321,"is_guest":0,"slug":"muhamet-mustafa","display_name":"Muhamet Mustafa","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/mustafa_bio.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/mustafa_bio.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Mustafa","first_name":"Muhamet","description":"Profesor Mustafa ligj\u00ebron Menaxhimin e Zhvillimit, Strategjit\u00eb dhe Politikat e Zhvillimit Ekonomik dhe ka p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb n\u00eb hartimin dhe menaxhimin e politikave publike. \u00cbsht\u00eb bashk\u00ebthemelues i Institutit Riinvest (1995) dhe sh\u00ebrbeu si kryetar deri n\u00eb vitin 2010. P\u00ebr dy mandate (2010-2017) ishte deputet n\u00eb Kuvendin e Kosov\u00ebs (jo partiak) dhe kryesoi Komisionin p\u00ebr Zhvillim Ekonomik dhe Tregti dhe Industri. Aktualisht an\u00ebtar i lart\u00eb n\u00eb Institutin Riinvest."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3435","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/321"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3435"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3435\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8592,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3435\/revisions\/8592"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3435"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3435"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3435"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=3435"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}