Nj\u00eb nga lajmet kryesore n\u00eb zhvillimet e ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore jan\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsit\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs. Fati i ekonomis\u00eb kineze do t\u00eb duhej t\u2019i interesonte m\u00eb shum\u00eb kosovar\u00ebve, po t\u00eb zhvillonte ky vend nje politik\u00eb ekonomike racionale dhe me synim zhvillimor. Tani do shpjegoj pse.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb nga kok\u00eb\u00e7arjet q\u00eb r\u00ebnia ekonomike n\u00eb Kin\u00eb po shkakton p\u00ebr vendet tjera, sidomos ato q\u00eb orientim kryesor kan\u00eb eksportin e komoditeteve (prodhimeve t\u00eb pap\u00ebrpunuara), \u00ebsht\u00eb se kjo r\u00ebnie po shoq\u00ebrohet me uljen e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr k\u00ebto komoditete. Si vend i varf\u00ebr p\u00ebr nga burimet natyrore (me p\u00ebrjashtim t\u00eb qymyrit), ekonomia e dyt\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe n\u00eb bot\u00eb ka nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr komoditete si minerale, naft\u00eb, madje edhe prodhime bujq\u00ebsore.<\/p>\n
Rritja e madhe e ekonomis\u00eb kineze, sidomos gjat\u00eb dy dekadave \u00eb fundit, ka qen\u00eb boom ekonomik edhe p\u00ebr vendet eksportuese t\u00eb komoditeteve, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Amerik\u00ebn latine e n\u00eb Afrik\u00eb, dy kontinente t\u00eb pasura me pasuri tok\u00ebsore e n\u00ebntok\u00ebsore.\u00a0Firmat kineze tashm\u00eb kan\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb prani t\u00eb thell\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebto vende. Nga boom-i kinez kan\u00eb p\u00ebrfituar edhe prodhuesit e naft\u00ebs si vendet e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme dhe Rusia.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebrkesa e lart\u00eb e Kin\u00ebs p\u00ebr importe t\u00eb komoditeteve po zgjat tashm\u00eb nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb e gjysm\u00eb. Kina importon minerale, metale e produkte tjera si p\u00ebr nevojat e industris\u00eb prodhuese, por edhe p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtimtarin\u00eb, q\u00eb gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit ka p\u00ebrjetuar nj\u00eb rritje galopante me investimet e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb shtetit kinez, i cili fushat e orizit po i transformon komplet n\u00eb qytete t\u00eb reja milion\u00eb-banor\u00ebshe. Nga viti 2000 n\u00eb 2013, importet kineze t\u00eb metaleve u dhjet\u00ebfishuan nga rreth 7 miliard\u00eb USD n\u00eb 78 miliard\u00eb USD (shih grafikun 1). K\u00ebrkesa kineze p\u00ebr komoditete ka qen\u00eb faktori kryesor, gjat\u00eb po k\u00ebsaj periudhe, p\u00ebr rritjen e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb tyre n\u00eb tregun bot\u00ebror (si\u00e7 tregon grafiku 2).<\/p>\n
Kjo nuk do t\u00eb ishte di\u00e7ka q\u00eb ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn ton\u00eb t\u00eb bot\u00ebs sikur vendet e Ballkanit (p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn) t\u00eb mos ishin vende t\u00eb bekuara me pasuri t\u00eb shumta n\u00ebntok\u00ebsore. Teoria klasike e tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb jashtme, modeli neoklasik i Heckscher-Ohlin, na thot\u00eb se shtetet duhet ta mb\u00ebshtesin tregtin\u00eb n\u00eb ata sektor\u00eb ku kan\u00eb ep\u00ebrsi krahasuese bazuar n\u00eb pasurit\u00eb e brendshme (factor endowments).<\/p>\n
Bazuar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb, duket se k\u00ebrkesa kineze p\u00ebr minerale tashm\u00eb ka p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb edhe Ballkanin. N\u00eb vitin 2013, Shqip\u00ebria eksportoi af\u00ebr 75% t\u00eb kromit, kurse Serbia dhe Maqedonia 90% t\u00eb hekurit dhe metaleve t\u00eb tjera, pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Kin\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Madje edhe Kosova, n\u00eb vitin e kaluar, Kin\u00ebn e pati partnerin e tret\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madh tregtar p\u00ebr eksporte (pas Italis\u00eb dhe Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb), ku eksportoi hekur.<\/p>\n
Kjo na kthen t\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtja e oportunitetit t\u00eb humbur tash e 15 vite.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebrkesa e madhe kineze p\u00ebr minerale ka qen\u00eb shans i p\u00ebrkryer p\u00ebr nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb varf\u00ebr si Kosova, q\u00eb t\u00eb investoj\u00eb dhe t\u00eb funksionalizoj\u00eb industrin\u00eb e saj ekstraktuese. Me nj\u00eb treg me k\u00ebrkes\u00eb gati t\u00eb pashuar, Kina do t\u00eb ishte destinacion i p\u00ebrkryer p\u00ebr mineralet e Kosov\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Pas shum\u00eb viteve pune, m\u00eb 2012, qeveria e Kosov\u00ebs m\u00eb n\u00eb fund nxoriStrategjin\u00eb Minerare t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs. Ky studim injoron zhvillimet e tregut bot\u00ebror t\u00eb komoditeteve dhe nuk p\u00ebrmend askund Kin\u00ebn (as ndonj\u00eb vend tjet\u00ebr) si treg t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr mineralet kosovare.<\/p>\n
Ky lloj avashll\u00ebku qeveritar, kombinuar me munges\u00ebn e nj\u00eb orientimi strategjik, i ka kushtuar Kosov\u00ebs me humbjen e shansit zhvillimor q\u00eb nga viti 2008, por edhe m\u00eb her\u00ebt n\u00eb saje t\u00eb politikave ngulfat\u00ebse ekonomike t\u00eb UNMIK-ut.<\/p>\n
Sipas nj\u00eb studimi, vet\u00ebm prodhimi i plumbit n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, p\u00ebrbrenda kapaciteteve ekzistuese, mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb deri n\u00eb 1 milion ton n\u00eb vit. N\u00eb muajin gusht, \u00e7mimi i plumbit n\u00eb tregun bot\u00ebror ishte 1750 USD p\u00ebr ton. Nuk po b\u00ebhemi kaq ambicioz, e po themi se \u00a0Kosova do t\u00eb eksportonte 500 mij\u00eb ton plumb n\u00eb vit. Me \u00e7mimin aktual, t\u00eb ardhurat e realizuara do t\u00eb ishin (matematika \u00ebsht\u00eb e thjesht\u00eb) 875 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb vit. (Sa p\u00ebr krahasim, eksportet minerare t\u00eb fqiut tan\u00eb verior, Serbis\u00eb, n\u00eb vitin 2013 ishin 2 miliard\u00eb USD.)<\/p>\n
Me nj\u00eb llogari shum\u00eb konservatore (sepse \u00e7mimi ka qen\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb gjat\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit), i bie se Kosova ka humbur mund\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 6 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura nga viti 2008, vet\u00ebm nga eksporti i plumbit, pa llogaritur mineralet tjera t\u00eb shumta t\u00eb cilat i posedon Kosova.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb b\u00ebnte Kosova me 500, 600, 800 milion\u00eb ose 1 miliard\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb dollar\u00eb eksporte mineralesh n\u00eb vit? (Sa p\u00ebr p\u00ebrkujtim, e gjith\u00eb GDP-ja e Kosov\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak se 4 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb.) K\u00ebt\u00eb po ua l\u00eb imagjinat\u00ebs suaj.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nj\u00eb nga lajmet kryesore n\u00eb zhvillimet e ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore jan\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsit\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs. Fati i ekonomis\u00eb kineze do t\u00eb duhej t\u2019i interesonte m\u00eb shum\u00eb kosovar\u00ebve, po t\u00eb zhvillonte ky vend nje politik\u00eb ekonomike racionale dhe me synim zhvillimor. Tani do shpjegoj pse. Nj\u00eb nga kok\u00eb\u00e7arjet q\u00eb r\u00ebnia ekonomike n\u00eb Kin\u00eb po shkakton p\u00ebr vendet […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":11082,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[645,691,664],"ppma_author":[59],"class_list":["post-465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-china","tag-economy","tag-kosovo"],"authors":[{"term_id":59,"user_id":49,"is_guest":0,"slug":"besnik-pula","display_name":"Besnik Pula","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1516241920287.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1516241920287.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Pula","first_name":"Besnik","description":"Besnik Pula specializon n\u00eb Ekonomi Politike dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb profesor-asistent n\u00eb Departamentin e Shkenc\u00ebs Politike n\u00eb Universitetin Virginia Tech n\u00eb ShBA. Besniku ka doktoruar n\u00eb Sociologji n\u00eb Universitetin e Mi\u00e7igenit. Shkruan kryesisht p\u00ebr politikat zhvillimore, \u00e7\u00ebshtjet sociale dhe ekonomike."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=465"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":466,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465\/revisions\/466"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=465"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}