{"id":5029,"date":"2016-02-07T16:49:48","date_gmt":"2016-02-07T14:49:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5029"},"modified":"2024-11-21T16:08:37","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T14:08:37","slug":"i-vellai-le-te-vellane-pjesa-iii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/i-vellai-le-te-vellane-pjesa-iii\/","title":{"rendered":"I v\u00ebllai le t\u00eb v\u00ebllan\u00eb (Pjesa III)"},"content":{"rendered":"
6. Ndikimi i Fuqive t\u00eb M\u00ebdha n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet Iran-Arabi Saudite, konkretisht n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn Civile n\u00eb Jemen<\/strong><\/div>\n
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Lufta civile n\u00eb Jemen dhe nga nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb m\u00eb e gjer\u00eb, p\u00ebrplasja e ftoht\u00eb Iran-Arabi Saudite, nuk pati se si t\u00eb kalonte e palagur prej interferimeve t\u00eb Fuqive t\u00eb M\u00ebdha, posa\u00e7\u00ebrisht ShBA-s\u00eb e Rusis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Mediat izraelite pretendojn\u00eb se disa luftanije ruse po manovrojn\u00eb brigjeve t\u00eb Gjirit t\u00eb Adenit p\u00ebr t\u2019ua leht\u00ebsuar luftanijeve iraniane furnizimin me arm\u00eb t\u00eb rebel\u00ebve Huthi. Vet\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsministri i jasht\u00ebm rus Genadji Gatillovi deklaroi se Rusia kund\u00ebrshton \u00e7do nd\u00ebrhyrje tok\u00ebsore n\u00eb Jemen t\u00eb koalicionit t\u00eb prir\u00eb prej saudit\u00ebve. S\u00eb fundi, Rusia ka pranuar pas pes\u00eb vite hezitimesh t\u2019i shes\u00eb Iranit sistemin mbrojt\u00ebs raketor rus S-330. Ndon\u00ebse m\u00eb 20 prill Obama pati th\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebr MSNBC-n\u00eb se ShBA-t\u00eb mund t\u2019i penetrojn\u00eb S-330 iranian\u00eb n\u00ebse ka nevoj\u00eb, dy dit\u00eb m\u00eb pas, ministri i jasht\u00ebm rus Sergei Lavrov ka deklaruar se \u201csecili shtet do t\u00eb mendohet dy her\u00eb para se ta sulmoj\u00eb Iranin\u201d, duke aluduar n\u00eb sistemin e ri mbrojt\u00ebs S-300 q\u00eb Irani do ta blej\u00eb nga rus\u00ebt. Kjo padyshim q\u00eb do ta shqet\u00ebsoj\u00eb para s\u00eb gjithash Izraelin. Kryeministri Netanjahu s\u00eb fundi ka k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar rus\u00ebt se n\u00ebse ia shesin iranian\u00ebve sistemin raketor mbrojt\u00ebs S-300, Izraeli do t\u2019iu shes\u00eb arm\u00eb ukrainasve. Po aq t\u00eb alarmuar jan\u00eb edhe saudit\u00ebt. P\u00ebr t\u2019i qet\u00ebsuar gjak\u00ebrat dhe p\u00ebr t\u2019u sqaruar rreth situat\u00ebs n\u00eb Jemen, m\u00eb 20 prill, presidenti rus Putin ftoi publikisht mbretin e ri saudit, Selmanin, q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhet mbreti i par\u00eb saudit q\u00eb e viziton Mosk\u00ebn. Pos Iranit e Jemenit, tem\u00eb diskutimi mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb edhe ngritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. M\u00eb 22 prill, agjencia ruse e lajmeve \u201cSputnik\u201d raportonte <\/a>se \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs po biejn\u00eb pas raportimeve se koalicioni kishte p\u00ebrmbyllur fushat\u00ebn e tij ajrore n\u00eb Jemen.<\/p>\n

Por, kjo gj\u00eb duket q\u00eb fare pak e shqet\u00ebson Iranin, i cili me k\u00ebt\u00eb sistem t\u00eb ri raketor do t\u00eb ndjehet shum\u00eb komod. M\u00eb 21 prill, Hossein Deghdan, ministri iranian i mbrotjes tha se \u201cdo ta p\u00ebrkrahim iden\u00eb e nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunimi t\u00eb shum\u00ebansh\u00ebm mes Kin\u00ebs, Iranit, Rusis\u00eb e Indis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuar zgjerimin e NATO-s drejt lindjes.\u201d N\u00eb fakt, pos Rusis\u00eb, edhe Kina po shton interesimin n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, ndon\u00ebse vazhdon ta ndjek politik\u00ebn e saj tradicionale t\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb mosnd\u00ebrhyrjes dhe mosanimit. E nxitur kryek\u00ebput nga interesa kat\u00ebrcip\u00ebrisht gjeoekonomike, Kina ka refuzuar t\u00eb marr\u00eb pal\u00eb politikisht. Kina po mundohet q\u00eb edhe n\u00eb konfliktin iraniano-saudit t\u00eb q\u00ebndroj\u00eb neutrale dhe ta ket\u00eb mir\u00eb me t\u00eb dy shtetet. P.sh., p\u00ebr fillim t\u00eb muajit prill ishte paralajm\u00ebruar se presidenti kinez Xi Jimping do ta vizitonte Arabin\u00eb Saudite dhe Egjiptin, por pas nisjes s\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Jemen vendos\u00ebn ta anulojn\u00eb vizit\u00ebn. Revista e njohur \u201cForeign Policy\u201d e quajti <\/a>k\u00ebt\u00eb veprim dhe qasjen neutrale kineze n\u00eb rajon \u201cm\u00eb mir\u00eb krejt jasht\u00eb kuzhin\u00ebs, sesa t\u00eb hash n\u00eb nxeht\u00ebsin\u00eb e saj\u201d \/. Kin\u00ebs nuk i konvenon q\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb an\u00eb n\u00eb kund\u00ebrv\u00ebnien iraniano-saudite, pasiq\u00eb Arabia Saudite e ka Kin\u00ebn importuesen kryesore t\u00eb naft\u00ebs s\u00eb saj, gjersa Irani e ka Kin\u00ebn partnerin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh tregtar. K\u00ebshtuq\u00eb, Kina synon t\u00eb realizoj\u00eb n\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme nj\u00eb diplomaci t\u00eb stilit \u201cwin-win cooperation\u201d, ndon\u00ebse presidenti Xi Jimping ka th\u00ebn\u00eb se n\u00eb mandatin e tij, Kina do t\u00eb ket\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht politik\u00eb t\u00eb jashtme m\u00eb proaktive sesa m\u00eb par\u00eb. Presidenti amerikan Obama e quajti Kin\u00ebn koh\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb si nj\u00eb \u201ckalor\u00ebs t\u00eb lir\u00eb\u201d (\u201cfree rider\u201d) q\u00eb p\u00ebr 30 vite ka pasur qasje t\u00eb lir\u00eb ndaj Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme. Por, ajo nga \u00e7far\u00eb Kina frik\u00ebsohet m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti n\u00eb rajon jan\u00eb rrymat e ekstremizmit fetar, t\u00eb cilat pask\u00ebtaj po arrijn\u00eb gjer n\u00eb Kin\u00eb dhe po ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb rritjen e seperatizmit n\u00eb radh\u00ebt e minoriteteve myslimane n\u00eb Kin\u00ebn per\u00ebndimore.<\/p>\n

Por, fal\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb saj ekonomike, Kina po t\u00ebrheq gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb tep\u00ebr aleat\u00eb n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme. Irani, Arabia Saudite, Egjipti, E.B.A, Katari, Pakistani, Azerbajxhani, Jordania, Kuvajti dhe Omani jan\u00eb vendet e rajonit q\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb shtete themeluese t\u00eb AIIB-s\u00eb (Bank\u00ebs Aziatike p\u00ebr Infrastruktur\u00eb dhe Investime), bank\u00eb e propozuar nga qeveria kineze dhe q\u00eb do t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb operoj\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti. AIIB-i konceptohet si konkurrente dhe barazpesh\u00eb e FMN-s\u00eb dhe BB-s\u00eb s\u00eb kontrolluar prej amerikan\u00ebve dhe deri m\u00eb tash 57 shtete kan\u00eb konfirmuar pjes\u00ebmarrjen e tyre si shtete themeluese, nd\u00ebr t\u00eb tjera Gjermania, Rusia, Britania e Madhe, Franca, Turqia, Suedia, Italia, India, Indonezia, Malajzia, Australia, Spanja, Korea Jugore, Singapori, Zvicra, Portugalia, Norvegjia, Danimarka, Finlanda, etj. Kjo flet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb vazhdueshme t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs, jo vet\u00ebm ekonomikisht, por edhe politikisht. N\u00eb raportin e saj gjeopolitik edhe ekonomiko-politik me ShBA-t\u00eb, mjafton t\u00eb japin k\u00ebto t\u00eb dh\u00ebna t\u00eb FMN-s\u00eb: gjersa vet\u00ebm dhjet\u00eb vite m\u00eb par\u00eb, m\u00eb 2005, ShBA-ja i jepte ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore 139% m\u00eb shum\u00eb se Kina, sot, vet\u00ebm dhjet\u00eb vit\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb, Kina i jep ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore 39% m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa ShBA-ja. Gjersa m\u00eb 1945 ShBA-ja kishte 50% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb globale, sot, m\u00eb 2015, ka vet\u00ebm 20% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb globale. Rritja mesatare vjetore m\u00eb 2015 e ShBA-s\u00eb<\/a> ka qen\u00eb vet\u00ebm 2.4%, gjersa e Kin\u00ebs 7.4%. Pos k\u00ebsaj, Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb kthyer n\u00eb partnerin tregtar m\u00eb t\u00eb madh n\u00eb bot\u00eb dhe importuesin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh bot\u00ebror. N\u00eb aspektin gjeostrategjik, ajo q\u00eb e ka ndihmuar jasht\u00ebzakonisht shum\u00eb Kin\u00ebn, \u00ebsht\u00eb themelimi i BRICS-it, s\u00eb bashku me Rusin\u00eb, Brazilin, Indin\u00eb dhe Afrik\u00ebn Jugore. T\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebto, flasin se p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr hamend\u00ebsimeve kineze, prap\u00ebseprap\u00eb ajo po fiton rol t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, sikurse edhe gjetiu.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, edhe ShBA-ja vazhdon ta ket\u00eb rolin primar n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme. M\u00eb 2013, presidenti Obama pati deklaruar se nj\u00eb \u201cdekade luft\u00ebrash po i vinte fundi\u201d, e, megjithat\u00eb, dy vite m\u00eb pas, administrata e tij involvoi ShBA-t\u00eb n\u00eb pes\u00eb konflikte t\u00eb tjera. Presidenti Obama i ka ofruar Arabis\u00eb Saudite dhe aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb saj ndihm\u00eb logjistike p\u00ebr fushat\u00ebn ajrore n\u00eb Jemen. Madje, m\u00eb 20 prill nisi aeroplanmbajt\u00ebsen \u201cTeodor Ruzvelt\u201d dhe nj\u00eb kryq\u00ebzor raketor n\u00eb uj\u00ebrat pran\u00eb Jemenit (t\u00eb cilat i largoi m\u00eb pas m\u00eb 25 prill). Sipas z\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebses s\u00eb Stejt Departamentit, Mari Harf, kjo ndodhi nga frika se luftanijet iraniane do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshiheshin n\u00eb luft\u00eb. K\u00ebsisoj, gjersa Arabia Saudite po bombardon Jemenin, ShBA-ja po luan rolin e gardianit t\u00eb saj. ShBA-ja koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit ka hasur n\u00eb mosp\u00eblqime t\u00eb hapura prej vendeve e popullsive lokale t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb lidhje me fushat\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb bombardimeve nga ajri p\u00ebrmes dron\u00ebve. P.sh., sipas \u201cLong War Journal\u201d, mes viteve 2010 dhe 2015, vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Jemen, ShBA-ja ka zhvilluar 109 sulme <\/a>me\u00a0drons, n\u00eb em\u00ebr t\u00eb luftimit t\u00eb celulave t\u00eb al-Kaid\u00ebs, por q\u00eb shum\u00ebher\u00eb ka pasur pasoja fatale edhe p\u00ebr popullat\u00ebn civile, me \u00e7\u2019rast kemi 105 civil\u00eb t\u00eb vrar\u00eb \u201cpaq\u00ebllimsh\u00ebm\u201d.<\/p>\n

Sa i p\u00ebrket n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti fushat\u00ebs n\u00eb Jemen, pos ShBA-s\u00eb, edhe Britania e Madhe af\u00ebrisht aty ka deklaruar se nuk do t\u00eb marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt n\u00eb t\u00eb, por se do t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb ndihm\u00eb n\u00eb logjistik\u00eb dhe intelegjenc\u00eb. Izraeli, poashtu, haptazi e ka p\u00ebrkrahur fushat\u00ebn ajrore \u201cStuhia vedimtare\u201d. BE-ja, edhepse ka d\u00ebnuar avancimin e shiit\u00ebve Huthi, nj\u00ebherit ka deklaruar se fushata ajrore vet\u00ebm sa e ka p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar dramatikisht situat\u00ebn politike, k\u00ebshtuseashtu fragjile, n\u00eb Jemen.<\/p>\n

Kryeministri irakien, Hajder al-Abadi, gjat\u00eb takimit t\u00eb jav\u00ebs s\u00eb kaluar me presidentin Obama, e paralajm\u00ebroi k\u00ebt\u00eb t\u00eb fundit se intervenimi saudit n\u00eb Jemen mund t\u00eb provokoj\u00eb nj\u00eb kataklizm\u00eb rajonale sektare. Por, n\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, edhe vet\u00eb intervenimi saudit duhet par\u00eb me thjerr\u00ebzat e frik\u00ebs saudite prej nj\u00eb \u201csirianizimi\u201d t\u00eb fqinjit t\u00eb saj jugor, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb kishte pasoja t\u00eb llahtarshme p\u00ebr vet\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite, sidomos po morr\u00ebm parasysh faktin q\u00eb n\u00eb lindje t\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudite, mu aty ku shtrihen shumica d\u00ebrmuese e fushave saudite t\u00eb pasura me naft\u00eb, jeton nj\u00eb minoritet i madh shiit, me lidhje shpirt\u00ebrore me Republik\u00ebn e Iranit, q\u00eb sikurse n\u00eb Irak, Liban apo Siri, edhe n\u00eb Jemen e Arabi Saudite mund t\u00eb nxis luft\u00eb civile sektare. Nj\u00eb raport i \u201cThe Middle East Media Reasearch Institute\u201d (MEMRI) akuzonte Iranin<\/a>se po p\u00ebrkrah rebel\u00ebt shiit Huthi. Raporti bazon pretendimet e veta n\u00eb fakte, p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr q\u00eb Tehrani zyrtar vazhdimisht ka mohur se po ndihmon ushtarakisht huth\u00ebt.<\/p>\n

Pas negociatave t\u00eb Lozan\u00ebs, ku ShBA-ja e Irani ran\u00eb dakord rreth programit b\u00ebrthamor iranian, Arabia Saudite, sikurse edhe Izraeli, gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb tep\u00ebr po e sheh me sy dyshues e me frik\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e nj\u00eb aleance t\u00eb mundshme, apo qoft\u00eb edhe mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e shtensionimit t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve ShBA-Iran. K\u00ebt\u00eb frik\u00eb mund ta ket\u00eb ushqyer edhe qasja izolacioniste e Obam\u00ebs, i cili, n\u00eb dallim prej Xhorxh Bushit, shqyrton problemet globale p\u00ebrmes organizatave nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr,sipas \u201cNju Jork Tajmsit\u201d<\/a>, zyrtar\u00ebt e Stejt Departamentit amerikan po i b\u00ebjn\u00eb presion Arabis\u00eb Saudite q\u00eb t\u2019i ndaloj\u00eb bombardimet e h\u00ebr\u00ebpas\u2019hershme n\u00eb Jemen dhe t\u2019i jap fund embargos mbi Jemenin, pasiq\u00eb ndihmat nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare humanitare nuk po arrijn\u00eb t\u00eb dep\u00ebrtojn\u00eb tek popullsia civile n\u00eb nevoj\u00eb.<\/p>\n

ShBA-ja p\u00ebr mbi 33 vite ka p\u00ebrkrahu n\u00eb Jemen Ali Abdullah Salehun, pastaj p\u00ebrkrah\u00ebn Hadin, m\u00eb von\u00eb shiit\u00ebt Huthi (n\u00eb luft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr celulave t\u00eb al-Kaid\u00ebs) dhe tani po p\u00ebrkrahin fushat\u00ebn ajrore saudite kund\u00ebr huth\u00ebve. ShBA-t\u00eb, q\u00eb me p\u00ebrfundimin e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, kan\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahur forcat politike reaksionare t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme dhe i kan\u00eb fryr\u00eb divergjencave sektare dhe fundamentalizmit fetar. Tani, q\u00eb roli hegjemon i ShBA-s\u00eb po zbehet (si\u00e7 e pam\u00eb nga shifrat e lartsh\u00ebnuara t\u00eb FMN-s\u00eb), e bashk\u00eb me t\u00eb edhe rendi global unipolar, edhe vet\u00ebbesimi i marionetave t\u00eb saj n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme po zbehet. Tjet\u00ebr faktor: n\u00eb dallim prej viteve \u201880, m\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ShBA-ja, por Kina, bler\u00ebsi kryesor i naft\u00ebs saudite, nj\u00ebjt\u00eb si\u00e7 nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb Arabia Saudite, por Kanadaja, shit\u00ebsja m\u00eb e madhe e naft\u00ebs p\u00ebr ShBA-t\u00eb. Por, edhepse lidhjet amerikano-saudite po dob\u00ebsohen, prapseprap Arabia Saudite ngelet partneri ky\u00e7 i amerikan\u00ebve n\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme.<\/p>\n

Por, afria amerikane me iranian\u00ebt, nuk po i bind leht\u00eb saudit\u00ebt. Madje, p\u00ebr shum\u00ebk\u00ebnd, sulmi ajror saudit duhet lexuar si ekspozim muskujsh nga ana e saudit\u00ebve p\u00ebrball\u00eb ShBA-s\u00eb dhe si shenj\u00eb mosbesimi ndaj saj. (\u00c7udit\u00ebrisht, saudit\u00ebt k\u00ebsaj radhe nuk i kishin paralajm\u00ebruar fare zyrtar\u00ebt amerikan rreth planit p\u00ebr sulme ajrore n\u00eb Jemen). E ky mosbesim po shihet jo vet\u00ebm nga ana saudite, por edhe prej aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb tradicionial\u00eb n\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme \u2013 Egjiptit, Pakistanit, Izraelit dhe petromonarkive t\u00eb Gjirit. (Kryeministri Netanjahu ka deklaruar se \u201cduhet t\u2019i jepet fund boshtit Iran-Lozan\u00eb-Jemen\u201d \u2013 ku me \u201cLozan\u00eb\u201d n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb implicite n\u00ebnkupton afrimi e ShBA-ve me Iranin.) Mosbesimi i thell\u00eb ndaj ShBA-s\u00eb prej aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb saj ka nisur q\u00eb me Luft\u00ebn n\u00eb Irak m\u00eb 2003, me akuzat ndaj ShBA-s\u00eb se po i p\u00ebrkdhel dhe po flirton me komunitetin shiit dhe se po e toleron ekspansionizmin iranian. Ky mosbesim \u00ebsht\u00eb thelluar me marr\u00ebveshjen e para pak jav\u00ebve n\u00eb Lozan\u00eb, ku sekretari amerikan i Shtetit Xhon Kerri dhe ministri i jasht\u00ebm iranian Mohamed Xhavad Zarifi arrit\u00ebn marr\u00ebveshje p\u00ebr programin b\u00ebrthamor iranian.<\/p>\n

Tjet\u00ebr indikator n\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe t\u00ebhollimi i lidhjes tradicionale ShBA-Izrael. Kan\u00eb kaluar koh\u00ebt kur ndihmat amerikane mbushnin gjer n\u00eb 30% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb s\u00eb Izraelit (sot mezi arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb 2%). Asnj\u00ebher\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet amerikano-izraelite nuk kan\u00eb qen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb zbehta sesa sot. Izraeli n\u00eb shum\u00eb l\u00ebmi po saboton politik\u00ebn e jashtme amerikane. Lidhja dhe p\u00ebrkrahja \u2013 her\u00eb e hapur, her\u00eb e fsheht\u00eb \u2013 p\u00ebr al-Kaid\u00ebn, sabotimi (p\u00ebrmes Kongresit amerikan t\u00eb kontrolluar prej republikan\u00ebve) i negociatave t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs s\u00eb Obam\u00ebs me Iranin, intensifikimi i marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve me Rusin\u00eb e Putinit, etj., jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm disa raste kur \u2013 si\u00e7 nuk ka ndodhur m\u00eb par\u00eb \u2013 Izraeli \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb diskrepanc\u00eb me politik\u00ebn e jashtme amerikane.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebsisoj, ShBA-ja, pa\u00e7ka q\u00eb nuk e ka nd\u00ebrmend t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpres marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet me aleat\u00ebt e saj tradicional, sidoqoft\u00eb ka nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr Iranin si aleat stabilizues n\u00eb rajon. Shum\u00eb strateg\u00eb e quajn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb qasje si \u201cparadigm\u00eb e re\u201d n\u00eb nj\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb multipolare.<\/p>\n

7. P\u00ebrmbyllje<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tani q\u00eb pam\u00eb q\u00ebndrimet e akter\u00ebve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb, fqinj\u00ebve, e posa\u00e7\u00ebrisht Fuqive t\u00eb M\u00ebdha kundruall Luft\u00ebs Civile n\u00eb Jemen, e p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht raporteve t\u00eb nd\u00ebrsjella Iran-Arabi Saudite, mund t\u2019i japim nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmbyllje p\u00ebrmbledh\u00ebse t\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebsaj analize.<\/p>\n

Arabia Saudite, pos pasiguris\u00eb rajonale, po p\u00ebrballet edhe me destabilitet t\u00eb heshtur s\u00eb brendshmi. 15.000 pjes\u00ebtar\u00ebt e familjes mbret\u00ebrore, \u201crojtar\u00ebt e dy vendeve t\u00eb shenjta\u201d, t\u00eb zhytur p\u00ebr vete n\u00eb llumin e ekstravaganc\u00ebs, dekadenc\u00ebs, imoralitetit, korrupsionit e lluksit, p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb popullit ushtrojn\u00eb restriksione t\u00eb rrepta ekonomike, sociale, fetare, morale, etj. Rinia dhe klasa pun\u00ebtore nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb se ka besnik\u00ebri ndaj familjes mbret\u00ebrore dhe ideve e klerit vehabi nj\u00ebjt\u00eb sikurse brezat paraardh\u00ebs. K\u00ebtu shpjegohet fakti p\u00ebrse Ushtria Saudite asnj\u00ebher\u00eb s\u2019ka guxuar t\u00eb d\u00ebrgoj t\u00eb rinjt\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb jasht\u00eb vendit. Dy intervenimet e vetme n\u00eb histori t\u00eb Armat\u00ebs saudite \u2013 n\u00eb Bahrejn m\u00eb 2011 dhe n\u00eb Jemen m\u00eb 2015 \u2013 jan\u00eb bazuar kryek\u00ebput n\u00eb mercenar\u00eb t\u00eb huaj, kresisht pakistanez\u00eb (s\u00eb fundi, Arabia Saudite ka ftuar Armat\u00ebn Pakistaneze p\u00ebr t\u2019ia ruajtur edhe kufirin me Irakun).<\/p>\n

Arabia Saudite dhe familja mbret\u00ebrore \u00ebsht\u00eb rrezikuar duksh\u00ebm nga vala e Pranver\u00ebs Arabe, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb si hak\u00ebrrim p\u00ebr vet\u00eb rendin monarkik saudit. Heqja dor\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7astet e fundme e ShBA-ve prej aleatit t\u00eb saj, Mubarakut n\u00eb Egjipt, vet\u00ebm sa e ka shtuar frik\u00ebn dhe paranoj\u00ebn e familjes mbret\u00ebrore. Nj\u00eb situat\u00eb e till\u00eb d\u00ebshp\u00ebruese \u2013 s\u00eb brendshmi e s\u00eb jashtmi \u2013 patjet\u00ebr q\u00eb shpien n\u00eb masa d\u00ebshp\u00ebruese t\u00eb monarkis\u00eb. T\u00ebr\u00eb despot\u00ebt e sheik\u00ebt e \u201carit t\u00eb zi\u201d t\u00eb Gjirit Persik jan\u00eb n\u00eb lemeri nga humba eventuale e privilegjeve e salltaneteve. Kjo paranoj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrbashkuesi i tyre dhe motori i l\u00ebvizjeve shkeleshko t\u00eb koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit.<\/p>\n

M\u00eb mir\u00eb situata nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb as brenda Iranit. Tek gjeneratat e reja dhe klasa pu\u00ebntore nuk po flen m\u00eb miti dhe trash\u00ebgimia \u201ce lavdishme\u201d e \u201cmadh\u00ebshtis\u00eb\u201d s\u00eb revolucionit islamik t\u00eb 1979-s. Nj\u00eb rini e papun\u00eb, nj\u00eb varf\u00ebri q\u00eb po thellohet, monopoli financiar n\u00eb duart e pushtetar\u00ebve, izolimi nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar dhe shum\u00eb faktor\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb l\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb shpresuar.<\/p>\n

Por, s\u00eb paku n\u00eb raport me Lindjen e Mesme, aktualisht Irani ka reputacion politik m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb. P.sh., u mir\u00ebprit nga rinia e \u201cPranver\u00ebs Arabe\u201d thirrja e Liderit Suprem t\u00eb Iranit, Ali Hamenejt, i cili m\u00eb 2011 thoshte se popujt arab\u00eb duhet q\u00eb t\u00eb dalin rrug\u00ebve e t\u2019i rr\u00ebzojn\u00eb qeverit\u00eb e korruptuara e represive. N\u00eb rritjen e simpatis\u00eb ndaj Iranit t\u00eb t\u00eb rinjve arab\u00eb ka ndikuar edhe paraqitja e Iranit si mbrojt\u00ebse e Islamit, empatia dhe p\u00ebrkrahja e madhe q\u00eb i b\u00ebn palestinez\u00ebve, zhvillimi makroekonomik apo edhe fakti q\u00eb Tehrani zyrtar paraqitet si flamurtare e luft\u00ebs antiimperialiste. Sipas t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshmes \u201cThe Guardian\u201d, 75% e respodent\u00ebve t\u00eb nj\u00eb ankete t\u00eb vitit 2006 n\u00eb shtetet arabe kan\u00eb shprehur simpati me politikat iraniane. Madje, p\u00ebr befasi, n\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite, simpati karshi Iranit kan\u00eb shprehur 85% e t\u00eb anketuarve (http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2015\/mar\/29\/iran-saudi-arabia-yemen-conflict). Por, s\u2019mund t\u00eb flasim p\u00ebr t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn simpati t\u00eb monarkis\u00eb saudite. Madje, kjo e fundit, me shum\u00eb veprime t\u00eb saj, vet\u00ebm sa ndjell antipatin\u00eb e popujve fqinj. P.sh., n\u00eb raport me Jemenin, jo vet\u00ebm me fushat\u00ebn e fundit ajrore, por edhe ngritjen e nj\u00eb barriere n\u00eb vitin 2003. Barriera Arabi Saudite-Jemen \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb barrier\u00eb fizike e konstruktuar nga saudit\u00ebt, n\u00eb an\u00ebn e tyre t\u00eb kufirit. Barriera \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nga gypat e gazit t\u00eb larta 3 metra dhe t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtjellura me pajisje me energji elektrike. Konstruksionin e barrier\u00ebs saudit\u00ebt e kan\u00eb arsyetuar me shkarkin\u00eb e mbrojtjes prej terrorist\u00ebve q\u00eb po e kalojn\u00eb kufirin me Jemenin dhe ka mohuar \u00e7far\u00ebdo analogjie me murin izraelit n\u00eb Rripin e Gaz\u00ebs. Por, kjo barrier\u00eb me fqinjin e saj jugor, nuk shihet me sy t\u00eb mir\u00eb prej masave t\u00eb thjeshta popullore arabe.<\/p>\n

Edhe sa i p\u00ebrket momentumit aktual t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Jemen, p\u00ebrderisa Arabia Saudite mobilizon 150.000 ushtar\u00eb e d\u00ebrgon 100 avion\u00eb kund\u00ebr Jemenit, Irani ka nj\u00eb qasje m\u00eb bashk\u00ebkohore e tolerante, duke b\u00ebr\u00eb thirrje p\u00ebr negociata e konsultime t\u00eb gjera.<\/p>\n

Sa i p\u00ebrket gjendjes ekonomike-shoq\u00ebrore, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm ShBA-ja q\u00eb ka nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb q\u00eb po p\u00ebrballet me humbje t\u00eb nj\u00ebpasnj\u00ebshme ushtarake, demoralizim t\u00eb Armat\u00ebs, kriz\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb brendshme, recension financiar, thellim t\u00eb pabarazis\u00eb sociale, rritje t\u00eb konflikteve racore, etj. Edhe Lindja e Mesme, me t\u00ebr\u00eb at\u00eb varf\u00ebri, papun\u00ebsi, pabarazi sociale, var\u00ebsi imperiale dhe ndarje fetare, sektare e shtet\u00ebrore, v\u00ebshtir\u00eb se do ta ket\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb koh\u00ebn e shp\u00ebrthimeve shoq\u00ebrore, sikur t\u00eb \u201cPranver\u00ebs Arabe\u201d, apo edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme.<\/p>\n

Pranvera Arabe ia ka pamund\u00ebsuar amerikan\u00ebve intervenimet direkte ushtarake n\u00eb rajon dhe me gjas\u00eb, Irani do ta luaj rolin e m\u00ebk\u00ebmb\u00ebsit amerikan n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb drejtim. Shenj\u00eb e k\u00ebsaj aleance t\u00eb heshtur e t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptuar \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe detanti i koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit mes ShBA-s\u00eb dhe Iranit. Poashtu, lufta e shiit\u00ebve kund\u00ebr ISIS-it n\u00eb Irak, lufta e Hezbollahut kund\u00ebr fundamentalist\u00ebve sunit\u00eb n\u00eb Liban, roli i Iranit n\u00eb Siri, e nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht, anaprapthi, p\u00ebrkrahja nga Turqia, Jordania, Izraeli e petromonarkit\u00eb e Gjirit p\u00ebr an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr (dmth organizatat ekstremiste), ka p\u00ebrforcuar afrin\u00eb amerikano-iraniane. P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr sloganeve antiimperialiste e antiamerikane t\u00eb rebel\u00ebve shiit\u00eb Huthi, prapseprap ShBA-ja e ka t\u00eb qart\u00eb se huth\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb vetmit q\u00eb mund t\u2019i b\u00ebjn\u00eb ball\u00eb n\u00eb Jemen e Gadishullin Arabik kampit t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm t\u00eb al-Kaid\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Si p\u00ebrfundim mund t\u00eb thuhet se kjo luft\u00eb thuajse nuk ka fare gjasa t\u00eb fitohet nga Arabia Saudite. N\u00eb fakt, sulmet ajrore vet\u00ebm sa e kan\u00eb \u00e7elnikosur pozicionin e huth\u00ebve shiit\u00eb brenda e jasht\u00eb Jemenit dhe e ka izoluar diplomatikisht familjen mbret\u00ebrore saudite. Lufta e hapur ndaj shiave t\u00eb rajonit, duke marr\u00eb parasysh prezenc\u00ebn shiite n\u00eb lindjen e pasur me naft\u00eb t\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudit\u00ebve, vet\u00ebm sa mund ta shenjoj\u00eb fillimin e fundit t\u00eb unitarizmit dhe monarkis\u00eb n\u00eb vend.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb krizat ciklike ekonomike e shoq\u00ebrore t\u00eb kapitalizmit n\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme po shpiejn\u00eb n\u00eb kriza politike diplomatike e ushtarake, tensionet komb\u00ebtare e fetare njashtu po i nxjerrin n\u00eb shesh kontradiktat klasore p\u00ebrbrenda secilit shtet ve\u00e7eve\u00e7 dhe t\u00ebr\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme si t\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb. Teksa tensionet sektare e nacionale sh\u00ebnojn\u00eb rritje, n\u00eb dukje, lufta klasore po ndrydhet p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm e po i n\u00ebnshtrohet atyre tensioneve. Por, n\u00eb fakt, Turqia, Egjipti apo Irani jan\u00eb shembuj se si ndarjet e thella klasore \u00e7ojn\u00eb krye her\u00eb pas here, me pasoja t\u00eb rrezikshme p\u00ebr rendin n\u00eb fuqi. Sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb pushteti e pasuria mbesin t\u00eb akumuluara n\u00eb duart e vet\u00ebm disa parazit\u00ebve dhe forcave regresive e retrograde, \u00e7do stabilizim n\u00eb rajon do t\u00eb jet\u00eb ve\u00e7 afatshkurt\u00ebr e i p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm dhe ve\u00e7 sa do ta shtyj\u00eb p\u00ebr ca katrahur\u00ebn, kataklizm\u00ebn e p\u00ebrmbysjen e madhe revolucionare sociale. E vetmja zgjidhje afatgjat\u00eb p\u00ebr Lindjen e Mesme \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb ngjarit e krejt t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt\u00ebs s\u00eb asaj q\u00eb e thot\u00eb titulli i k\u00ebsaj analizeje e krejt e kund\u00ebrta e asaj q\u00eb ka ndodhur n\u00eb histori t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre popujve \u2013 bashkimi i klas\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore dhe klasave t\u00eb shtypura t\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonit, lufta e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt kund\u00ebr despotizmit feudal t\u00eb sheik\u00ebve, diktator\u00ebve e autokrat\u00ebve n\u00eb pushtet, nacionalizimi i burimeve e pasurive natyrore, rishp\u00ebrndarja e pasuris\u00eb dhe tekembramja, krijimi i nj\u00eb Federate apo Konfederate t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme, e cila do t\u2019i b\u00ebnte ball\u00eb \u00e7far\u00ebdo imperializmi t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm n\u00eb rajon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

6. Ndikimi i Fuqive t\u00eb M\u00ebdha n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet Iran-Arabi Saudite, konkretisht n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn Civile n\u00eb Jemen Lufta civile n\u00eb Jemen dhe nga nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb m\u00eb e gjer\u00eb, p\u00ebrplasja e ftoht\u00eb Iran-Arabi Saudite, nuk pati se si t\u00eb kalonte e palagur prej interferimeve t\u00eb Fuqive t\u00eb M\u00ebdha, posa\u00e7\u00ebrisht ShBA-s\u00eb e Rusis\u00eb. Mediat izraelite pretendojn\u00eb se disa […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":411,"featured_media":9820,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1948,1716,1000],"ppma_author":[768],"class_list":["post-5029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-arabi-saudite","tag-irani","tag-politike-e-jashtme"],"authors":[{"term_id":768,"user_id":411,"is_guest":0,"slug":"fitim-salihu","display_name":"Fitim Salihu","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Fitim-Salihu-e1701268592693.png","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Fitim-Salihu-e1701268592693.png"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Salihu","first_name":"Fitim","description":"Fitim Salihu \u00ebsht\u00eb politolog dhe merret kryesisht me studime kulturore e me studime t\u00eb Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, me theks t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr Lindjen e Mesme, ShBA-n\u00eb dhe Amerik\u00ebn Latine. P\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb ka punuar si redaktor i kultur\u00ebs n\u00eb gazet\u00ebn \"Z\u00ebri\", shkruan si kolumnist p\u00ebr gazet\u00ebn kroate \"Bilten\" dhe punon si hulumtues shkencor p\u00ebr disa institute vendore e t\u00eb jashtme."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/411"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5029"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5029\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10566,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5029\/revisions\/10566"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5029"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}