{"id":5290,"date":"2020-04-16T16:06:21","date_gmt":"2020-04-16T14:06:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5290"},"modified":"2024-12-19T16:13:02","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T14:13:02","slug":"sa-do-te-ndikoje-pandemia-covid-19-ne-remitancat-e-pranuara-nga-diaspora","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/sa-do-te-ndikoje-pandemia-covid-19-ne-remitancat-e-pranuara-nga-diaspora\/","title":{"rendered":"Sa do t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb pandemia COVID-19 n\u00eb remitancat e pranuara nga diaspora?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ndon\u00ebse p\u00ebr momentin e t\u00ebr\u00eb forca dhe fokusi global \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb luftimit dhe parandalimit t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb virusit COVID-19 n\u00eb aspektin sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor, shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb financiar\u00eb dhe ekonomist\u00eb po analizojn\u00eb edhe pasojat e mundshme q\u00eb ky virus mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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R\u00ebnia ekonomike nga efekti i virusit COVID-19 pritet t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb recesion n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, Eurozon\u00eb dhe Japoni. Kina do t\u00eb ket\u00eb rritjen m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb dhe poashtu potencialisht nj\u00eb total prej $2.7 trillion t\u00eb humbur n\u00eb prodhim – q\u00eb i bie sa ekuivalenti i t\u00ebr\u00eb\u00a0Prodhimit t\u00eb Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto (GDP-s\u00eb) t\u00eb Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Pasojat ekonomike t\u00eb COVID-19 pritet t\u00eb ndjehen edhe tek diaspora jon\u00eb. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb evidente n\u00eb shtetet si: Gjermania, Greqia, Italia dhe Zvicra, vende k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat kemi p\u00ebrqendrimin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb Diaspor\u00ebs Shqiptare.<\/p>\n

In the key\u00a0Gjermani,<\/strong>\u00a0Instituti IFO p\u00ebr hulumtime ekonomike, sipas nj\u00eb analize t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb s\u00eb fundmi, vler\u00ebson q\u00eb humbjet ekonomike n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb shtet do t\u00eb variojn\u00eb nga 7.2% n\u00eb rast se kriza do t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb 2 muaj, deri n\u00eb 20.6% n\u00eb skenarin m\u00eb t\u00eb keq n\u00ebse kriza do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb p\u00ebr 3 muaj. P\u00ebrqindjet e tilla, shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb vlera monetare tregojn\u00eb humbje q\u00eb mund t\u00eb variojn\u00eb nga \u20ac255 miliard\u00eb deri n\u00eb \u20ac729 miliard\u00eb n\u00eb skenarin m\u00eb t\u00eb keq. Kriza poashtu do t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb vrim\u00eb prej \u20ac200 miliard\u00eb n\u00eb buxhetin publik, duke l\u00ebn\u00eb anash benefitin p\u00ebr\u00a0pakos ekonomike<\/a>. Poashtu rreth 1.8 milion\u00eb persona mund t\u00eb humbasin vendin e pun\u00ebs, nd\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebt mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb edhe shum\u00eb nga Diaspora jon\u00eb.<\/p>\n

BAK Economics, nj\u00eb think-tank nga Zvicra, ka vler\u00ebsuar se parashikimet p\u00ebr rritjen ekonomike n\u00eb\u00a0Zvic\u00ebr<\/strong>\u00a0do t\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb zvog\u00eblim prej 1.5% n\u00eb 1.3%. N\u00eb periudh\u00ebn mesatare, Sekretariati i shtetit p\u00ebr Pun\u00ebt Ekonomike (SECO) ka brenga p\u00ebr tregun kapital dhe nd\u00ebrprerjen e zinxhirit t\u00eb furnizimit industrial zviceran dhe korporatave nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare me vendndodhje n\u00eb Zvic\u00ebr. M\u00eb 14 mars, qeveria zvicerane ka zotuar\u00a0CHF10 miliard\u00eb ($10.6 miliard\u00eb)<\/a>\u00a0n\u00eb pakon emergjente p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar ekonomin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

In the key\u00a0Itali<\/strong>\u00a0poashtu, sipas Statista Research Department, n\u00eb parashikimet b\u00ebra nga muaji mars 2020, \u00ebsht\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar q\u00eb Prodhimi i Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto (PBB, eng. GDP) e shtetit italian, do t\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet p\u00ebr -3% n\u00eb fund t\u00eb kat\u00ebrmujorit t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb kat\u00ebrmujorin e dyt\u00eb pritet q\u00eb kjo shif\u00ebr t\u00eb bie deri n\u00eb -5% t\u00eb PBB p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb ndikimit t\u00eb virusit COVID-19 n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e vendit. M\u00eb tutje, \u00ebsht\u00eb parashikuar q\u00eb sektor\u00ebt e tekstilit, transportit ajror dhe me tren, hoteleria, restorantet, emisionet televizive dhe ngjarjet sportive do t\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb r\u00ebnien m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe ekonomike. Qeveria Italiane ka zotuar $28bn p\u00ebr t\u00eb leht\u00ebsuar ngarkes\u00ebn ekonomike t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb.\u00a0Kjo pako ekonomike<\/a>\u00a0do t\u00eb ndihmoj\u00eb kompanit\u00eb, pronar\u00ebt e sht\u00ebpive me pagesa t\u00eb kredive, dhe personat q\u00eb rrezikojn\u00eb t\u00eb humbin vendet e tyre t\u00eb pun\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Kriza ekonomike e vitit 2008 dhe ndikimi i saj ne remitanca<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kriza ekonomike n\u00eb vendet evropiane, medoemos do t\u00eb pasqyrohet edhe n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb vendore n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb e Shqip\u00ebri, pasi q\u00eb BPP-t\u00eb e t\u00eb dy k\u00ebtyre vendeve kan\u00eb nj\u00eb varshm\u00ebri relative n\u00eb remitancat q\u00eb vijn\u00eb nga Diaspora. Bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, shtetet n\u00eb zhvillim n\u00eb vitin 2019 kan\u00eb pranuar mbi 500 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb p\u00ebrmes remitancave. N\u00eb shtetet si Kosova dhe Shqip\u00ebria, remitancat p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr komponent\u00ebt kryesor\u00eb n\u00eb Prodhimin e Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto, i cili shkon vazhdimisht n\u00eb rritje, mir\u00ebpo n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb jo shum\u00eb t\u00eb larg\u00ebt, me rastin e kriz\u00ebs globale ekonomike t\u00eb vitit 2008, remitancat filluan t\u00eb bien drastikisht. N\u00eb Kosov\u00eb u desh t\u00eb kalonin 5 vite deri sa vlera monetare e remitancave t\u00eb kthehej n\u00eb shum\u00ebn q\u00eb ishte para vitit 2008, ku r\u00ebnia m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt ishte ajo e vitit 2011 kur shuma e remitancave ishte \u20ac492m (-19% krahasuar me vitin 2008). N\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri kriza ekonomike e vitit 2008 poashtu kishte pasoja t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb aspektin e remitancave q\u00eb u pranuan n\u00eb vend. Pas vitit 2009, impakti i kriz\u00ebs ekonomike bot\u00ebrore filloi t\u00eb shfaqej edhe n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, p\u00ebr faktin se shumica e Diaspor\u00ebs punojn\u00eb n\u00eb shtetet evropiane, ekonomia e vendit p\u00ebsoi nj\u00eb shok negativ t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm kryesisht nga eksportet, remitancat dhe rrjedha e investimeve kapitale t\u00eb huaja. Faktikisht, q\u00eb nga ajo koh\u00eb, Shqip\u00ebria asnj\u00ebher\u00eb nuk ka arritur q\u00eb t\u00eb rikthehet prap\u00eb n\u00eb pik\u00ebn ku ishte para vitit 2008, duke sh\u00ebnuar n\u00eb vitin 2013 pik\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb aspektin e remitancave t\u00eb pranuara. Prej vitit 2014 n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ka pasur\u00a0nj\u00eb rritje graduale t\u00eb remitancave<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb pranuara megjithat\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje e till\u00eb ishte me margjina shum\u00eb t\u00eb vogla.<\/p>\n

Kriza e fundit e pandemis\u00eb COVID-19, efektin par\u00ebsor n\u00eb aspektin e remitancave do ta ket\u00eb tek burimi i remitancave, pra pjes\u00ebtar\u00ebt e Diaspor\u00ebs. Ata n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb, jan\u00eb detyruar t\u00eb punojn\u00eb nga sht\u00ebpia; pronar\u00ebt e bizneseve jan\u00eb detyruar t\u2019i mbyllin bizneset e tyre p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht; t\u00eb tjer\u00eb jan\u00eb detyruar t\u00eb marrin pushim t\u00eb detyruar me pages\u00eb jo t\u00eb plot\u00eb; nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb keq, disa edhe kan\u00eb humbur vendet e tyre t\u00eb pun\u00ebs. Rrjedhimisht, aft\u00ebsia e k\u00ebtyre personave p\u00ebr t\u00eb d\u00ebrguar para n\u00eb atdhe tek familjet e tyre, zvog\u00eblohet duksh\u00ebm, dhe padyshim q\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb keqi do t\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb ato familje t\u00eb cilat burim t\u00eb vet\u00ebm t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave i kan\u00eb remitancat q\u00eb ata i pranojn\u00eb nga familjar\u00ebt e tyre nga jasht\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Kufizimi i koh\u00ebs s\u00eb l\u00ebvizjes, e n\u00eb raste ekstreme edhe kufizimi i t\u00ebr\u00ebsish\u00ebm i l\u00ebvizjes b\u00ebn q\u00eb disa nga familjet ta ken\u00eb t\u00eb pamundur fare q\u00eb t\u00eb realizojn\u00eb transaksionet e tyre monetare p\u00ebrmes bankave dhe nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb financiar\u00eb. N\u00eb Kosov\u00eb dhe Shqip\u00ebri, ende zhvillimi teknologjik\/online i sh\u00ebrbimeve financiare \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb hapa fillestar, krahasuar me vendet e zhvilluara, andaj transaksionet me para t\u00eb gatshme n\u00eb situata t\u00eb tilla si pandemia n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ne gjendemi, b\u00ebhet shum\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos th\u00ebn\u00eb e pamundur fare. K\u00ebsaj fatkeq\u00ebsie duhet t\u2019i shihet edhe ana e m\u00ebsimit q\u00eb mund t\u00eb nxjerrim nga kjo situat\u00eb, p.sh. n\u00eb vet\u00ebdijesimin e popullit n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb e Shqip\u00ebri rreth sh\u00ebrbimeve financiare t\u00eb form\u00ebs elektronike, e nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht n\u00eb motivimin e institucioneve financiare q\u00eb t\u00eb zhvillojn\u00eb e avancojn\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimet e tilla, duke marr\u00eb parasysh faktin q\u00eb mbulueshm\u00ebria e rrjetit t\u00eb internetit n\u00ebp\u00ebr sht\u00ebpit\u00eb e k\u00ebtyre dy vendeve \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebr m\u00eb t\u00eb lartat n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Banka Bot\u00ebrore vler\u00ebson q\u00eb nd\u00ebr hapat e par\u00eb q\u00eb autoritetet publike duhet t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrin jan\u00eb:
\n–\u00a0Remitancat duhet t\u00eb trajtojn\u00eb institucionet financiare si\u00e7 jan\u00eb agjencit\u00eb e transferave, bankat etj. si sh\u00ebrbyes themelor\u00eb dhe q\u00eb t\u2019u zbusin \u00e7far\u00ebdo ndikimi negativ n\u00eb funksionalitetin operacional t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre sh\u00ebrbyesve.
\n–\u00a0T\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin\u00a0industrin\u00eb e remitancave<\/a>\u00a0me instrumente t\u00eb duhura q\u00eb menaxhojn\u00eb kredibilitetin dhe riskun e likuidetit.<\/p>\n

Me dat\u00eb 12 prill, Qeveria n\u00eb detyr\u00eb e Kosov\u00ebs, ka nisur poashtu nj\u00eb iniciativ\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00ebsimit t\u00eb gjendjes aktuale t\u00eb krijuar n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cil\u00ebs ka hapur nj\u00eb xhirollogari zyrtare n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn Qendrore t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs, ku pjes\u00ebtar\u00ebt nga Diaspora, mund t\u00eb kontribuojn\u00eb financiarisht sipas mund\u00ebsive t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n

Pandemia COVID-19 ka filluar t\u00eb shfaq\u00eb efektet e kriz\u00ebs ekonomike, e cila manifestohet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb ndryshme tek vendet e ndryshme, var\u00ebsisht nga p\u00ebrb\u00ebrja e PBB-s\u00eb (m\u00eb sakt\u00ebsisht var\u00ebsia e vendeve respektive nga eksportet apo importet e mallrave). Shtetet e varura nga eksporti dhe investimet, jan\u00eb ato q\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti nga kriza t\u00eb tilla, kurse vendet si Kosova dhe Shqip\u00ebria q\u00eb jan\u00eb vende t\u00eb varura nga importet dhe remitancat, kan\u00eb pasoja t\u00eb nj\u00eb krize globale t\u00eb natyr\u00ebs sekondare, ku me k\u00ebt\u00eb rast rriten \u00e7mimet ushqimore. Shum\u00eb familje n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb kan\u00eb si burim t\u00eb vet\u00ebm financiar d\u00ebrgesat nga diaspora. Zvog\u00eblimi apo edhe nd\u00ebrprerja e k\u00ebtij burimi do t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb direkt n\u00eb fuqin\u00eb bler\u00ebse dhe mir\u00ebqenien e qytetar\u00ebve. Prandaj, r\u00ebnia e remitancave n\u00eb muajt dhe vitet e ardhshme duhet t\u00eb trajtohet me seriozitet nga institucionet relevante, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ruhet stabiliteti social dhe ekonomik i vendit.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Fig: World Bank, Remitencat persionale, te pranuara (US$)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ndon\u00ebse p\u00ebr momentin e t\u00ebr\u00eb forca dhe fokusi global \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb luftimit dhe parandalimit t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb virusit COVID-19 n\u00eb aspektin sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor, shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb financiar\u00eb dhe ekonomist\u00eb po analizojn\u00eb edhe pasojat e mundshme q\u00eb ky virus mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. R\u00ebnia ekonomike nga efekti i virusit COVID-19 pritet t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb recesion […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":554,"featured_media":11439,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[646,2146,1006],"ppma_author":[2145],"class_list":["post-5290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-covid-19","tag-diaspora","tag-ekonomi"],"authors":[{"term_id":2145,"user_id":554,"is_guest":0,"slug":"shpetim-shujaku","display_name":"Shp\u00ebtim Shujaku","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/306456308_10224778178734238_4475462085484626546_n-e1734617510999.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/306456308_10224778178734238_4475462085484626546_n-e1734617510999.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Shujaku","first_name":"Shp\u00ebtim","description":"Shp\u00ebtim \u00ebsht\u00eb Menaxher i Lart\u00eb i Projektit - Municipal Action for Reintegration and Diaspora (MARDI) Project n\u00eb Caritas Schweiz."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/554"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5290"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5290\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11440,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5290\/revisions\/11440"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11439"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5290"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}