{"id":5441,"date":"2020-09-16T15:05:19","date_gmt":"2020-09-16T13:05:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5441"},"modified":"2024-10-24T15:07:17","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T13:07:17","slug":"minishengeni-si-mjet-dominues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/minishengeni-si-mjet-dominues\/","title":{"rendered":"Minishengeni si mjet dominues"},"content":{"rendered":"
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N\u00eb shkrimin e m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm<\/a>\u00a0Visar Ymeri paraqiti nj\u00eb argument t\u00eb logjiksh\u00ebm se si jasht\u00eb aspektit politik, ku drejt\u00ebsisht k\u00ebrkohet q\u00eb Kosova t\u00eb pranohet si shtet i barabart\u00eb paraprakisht, minishengeni hap nj\u00eb dinamik\u00eb t\u00eb re q\u00eb, si\u00e7 thot\u00eb ai, krahas qarkullimit t\u00eb lir\u00eb t\u00eb mallit e kapitalit, garanton edhe qarkullimin e lir\u00eb t\u00eb njer\u00ebzve.<\/p>\n

Por, shkrimi n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundim, duke tentuar t\u00eb thyej\u00eb fantazm\u00ebn, t\u00eb l\u00eb t\u00eb besosh n\u00eb t\u00eb pasi t\u00eb kemi pranuar t\u00eb luajm\u00eb barabart\u00eb. N\u00eb at\u00eb shkrim, n\u00eb nj\u00ebr\u00ebn an\u00eb thuhet se integrimi n\u00eb vetvete nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i d\u00ebmsh\u00ebm por se lloji mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa \u00ebsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht lloji i integrimit \u00e7ka na brengos\u00eb dhe q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb tem\u00eb e diskutimit n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e rasteve. Teoritikisht, ka mjaft literatur\u00eb q\u00eb argumenton benefitet e tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb lir\u00eb (shembulli tipik \u00ebsht\u00eb ilustrimi i teoris\u00eb s\u00eb Ricardo-s ku secili vend specializohet n\u00eb avantazhet krahasuese), por edhe praktikisht dihet q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb integrimi n\u00eb rregullin liberal nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar dhe ai rajonal sikur marketi i p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt i BE-s\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb avancuar zhvillimin n\u00eb p\u00ebrmasa t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 p\u00ebrfitimeve, tregtia dhe qarkullimi i mallrave, kapitalit dhe njer\u00ebzve (i njohur si globalizim) nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka q\u00eb mund t\u2019i ikim apo t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitojm\u00eb duke tentuar t\u00eb izolohemi nga ajo. P\u00ebrkundrazi.<\/p>\n

Por, t\u2019i largohemi kontekstit rajonal dhe atij t\u00eb minishengenit specifikisht dhe t\u00eb flasim p\u00ebr minishengenin si reprezentues teorik i tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb lir\u00eb, pa analizuar ndikimin n\u00eb terren\u00a0rrezikon t\u00eb arsyetoj\u00eb nj\u00eb projekt t\u00eb pafavorsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Minishengeni n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb fantazma e tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb lir\u00eb, por doemos \u00ebsht\u00eb fantazma e Serbis\u00eb. E them k\u00ebt\u00eb duke u bazuar ne faktet e paraqitura m\u00eb posht\u00eb analizuar numrat dhe kontekstin, jo n\u00eb frik\u00eb abstrakte. T\u00eb shikojm\u00eb nga lart numrat ky\u00e7: popullata, GDP, dhe kompleksiteti ekonomik p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar se si pozicionohet Kosova dhe vendet tjera karshi Serbis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Popullata<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tregtia nuk zhvillohet pa njer\u00ebz, dhe numri i popullat\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor bazik q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb konsiderohet. N\u00ebse marrim parasysh t\u00eb gjith\u00eb an\u00ebtaret potencial\u00eb t\u00eb projektit minishengen, rreth 40% e popullat\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb Serbi dhe 19% n\u00eb Bosnje dhe Herzegovin\u00eb. T\u00eb dyja bashk\u00eb i afrohen 60%. Deri n\u00eb vitin 2050, sipas parashikimeve t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, thuajse t\u00eb gjitha shtetet (p\u00ebrve\u00e7 Kosov\u00ebs) do t\u00eb ken\u00eb tkurrje n\u00eb popullat\u00eb. Dhe p\u00ebrderisa edhe ne vitin 2050 Serbia mbetet shteti m\u00eb i madh n\u00eb krahasim me tjer\u00ebt, ajo zbret prej 39% t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebrjes s\u00eb popullat\u00ebs totale t\u00eb minishengenit t\u00eb propozuar, n\u00eb 36% duke humbur rreth -1.5 milion banor\u00eb. Shqip\u00ebria pritet t\u00eb humb\u00eb rreth 464 mij\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa Kosova t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb 282 mij\u00eb (q\u00eb s\u00eb bashku mes dyjave humb\u00ebn vet\u00ebm 181 mij\u00eb.) Natyrisht, popullata pa faktor\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb ekonomik\u00eb nuk ka vler\u00eb (shih krahasimin mes Iranit e Izraelit p. sh. 81 milion\u00eb e para, rreth 9 mil. e dyta, nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb ardhurat vjetore 458 miliard\u00eb p\u00ebr Iranin, 387 miliard\u00eb p\u00ebr Izraelin q\u00eb e b\u00ebn t\u00eb dyt\u00ebn shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb pasur p\u00ebr kok\u00eb banori dhe rrit\u00eb kapacitetin p\u00ebr t\u00eb investuar n\u00eb zhvillim t\u00eb m\u00ebtutjesh\u00ebm p\u00ebrmes edukimit, sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsis\u00eb, mbrojtjes etj.) Por se si market konsumues, dhe p\u00ebr kapacitete prodhuese, r\u00ebnia relative n\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb popullat\u00ebs n\u00eb Serbi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb lajm pozitiv. Izraeli p. sh. pritet t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb prej 9 milion\u00eb n\u00eb rreth 13 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb deri m\u00eb 2050. Balanci mes numrit dhe kualitetit t\u00eb numrit \u00ebsht\u00eb tejet i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm, dhe p\u00ebr Serbin\u00eb n\u00ebse nuk ndryshon qasjen p\u00ebr t\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr investime dhe ngritur kualitetin, at\u00ebher\u00eb edhe numri vazhdon t\u00eb bjer\u00eb p\u00ebrmes imigracionit duke dob\u00ebsuar aktivitetin ekonomik edhe m\u00eb tutje dhe me t\u00eb relevancen n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n

E njejta vlen edhe p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb, dhe vendet e tjera p\u00ebrreth, dhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst edhe nevoja p\u00ebr t\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunuar \u00ebsht\u00eb e madhe, por se krahasimisht popullata e Kosov\u00ebs dhe e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, e marr\u00eb s\u00eb bashku, nuk e ka t\u00eb ardhmen demografike n\u00eb r\u00ebnie relative t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00eb sikur Serbia dhe ka m\u00eb pak arsye p\u00ebr t\u2019u ngutur n\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje q\u00eb bashkon popullatat n\u00eb nj\u00eb treg n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin bashk\u00ebngjitet pa ditur qart\u00eb p\u00ebrfitimet e pritura dhe pozit\u00ebn relative me Serbin\u00eb q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb evoluoj\u00eb si rezultat i k\u00ebtij bashk\u00ebpunimi.<\/p>\n

GDP \u2013 Prodhimi i Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00eb b\u00ebsh t\u00eb gjith\u00eb an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e minishengen bashk\u00eb, arrijn\u00eb 110 miliard\u00eb t\u00eb GDP vjetore, nd\u00ebrsa vet\u00ebm Greqia (ekonomia e 16-t\u00eb n\u00eb BE) ka GDP rreth 210 miliard\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa 46% e GDP-s\u00eb s\u00eb minishengenit do t\u00eb ishte vet\u00eb Serbia me 51 miliard\u00eb GDP. \u00cbsht\u00eb ende e paqart\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb kapitali i Kosov\u00ebs dhe i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb qenka i interesuar t\u00eb hyj\u00eb m\u00eb thell\u00eb n\u00eb marketet e Serbis\u00eb. \u00c7far\u00eb po e pengon Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb q\u00eb ta thelloj\u00eb integrimin e m\u00ebtutjesh\u00ebm me ekonomit\u00eb Evropiane sikur Italia dhe vendet e tjera, me t\u00eb cilat lidhet edhe m\u00eb leht\u00eb, por edhe mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb edhe m\u00eb pak barriera p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve m\u00eb t\u00eb mira politike? Duke marr\u00eb parasysh vet\u00ebm krahasimet mes popullat\u00ebs dhe GDP-s\u00eb, nj\u00eb integrim t\u00eb m\u00ebtutjesh\u00ebm ekonomik mes k\u00ebtyre vendeve, natyrisht se ekonomit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla sikur Shqip\u00ebria dhe Kosova vet\u00ebm rrezikojn\u00eb t\u00eb gravitojn\u00eb m\u00eb tutje rreth Beogradit q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shitet si epiqendra e k\u00ebtij marketi si minibllok n\u00eb relacion me blloqet e tjera ekonomike, duke fituar edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb potencial q\u00eb t\u00eb influencoj\u00eb edhe t\u00eb ardhmen ekonomike e me t\u00eb edhe politike t\u00eb vendeve fqinje.<\/p>\n

Kompleksiteti Ekonomik<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le t\u00eb marrim edhe nj\u00eb faktor t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm krahasues, i cili mat se sa komplekse \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ekonomi. Sa m\u00eb komplekse n\u00ebnkupton q\u00eb ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb diversitet q\u00eb e b\u00ebn tregtin\u00eb e asaj ekonomie m\u00eb dinamike. N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb list\u00ebs p\u00ebr nga kompleksiteti ekonomik p. sh. figurojn\u00eb vendet sikur Japonia, Zvicra dhe Gjermania, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb fund vendet sikur Siria, Sierra Leone dhe Niger. N\u00eb radhitjen e ekonomive m\u00eb komplekse, Serbia \u00ebsht\u00eb num\u00ebr 38 nd\u00ebrsa Shqip\u00ebria num\u00ebr 90, Maqedonia Veriore 70, Bosnia Herzegovina 42 (pa statistika p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn dhe Malin e Zi, por se mund te marrim parasysh se Kosova nuk pritet te jet\u00eb shum\u00eb larg Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb.)<\/p>\n

Kjo automatikisht n\u00ebnkupton se \u00e7far\u00ebdo hapjeje dhe integrimi mes vendeve n\u00eb em\u00ebr, konkurrenca e tregtar\u00ebve serb\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe.\u00a0 Sipas statistikave, at\u00ebher\u00eb shohim se Serbia e ka p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsin\u00eb demografike (popullat\u00eb) resurset financiare (GDP) me t\u00eb ardhura shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta, dhe baz\u00ebn ekonomike industriale me rrjete tregtare m\u00eb t\u00eb thella (kompleksiteti ekonomik) dhe q\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha n\u00eb kombinim mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren me shtete relativisht m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla, me politika t\u00eb ndara (p. sh. Shqiperia, Kosova, Mali i Zi, Maqedonia Veriore, Bosnia Herzegovina nuk shohin me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtit sy) q\u00eb e b\u00ebn dominimin jo vet\u00ebm t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm, por krejt\u00ebsisht t\u00eb leht\u00eb. K\u00ebto jan\u00eb krahasime numerike dhe kontekstuale, jo frika nga fantazma.<\/p>\n

Dhe e gjith\u00eb kjo pa hyr\u00eb n\u00eb problemet politike mes pal\u00ebve dhe ambiciet territoriale ose destabilizuese t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb n\u00eb rajon. N\u00eb skenarin m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm, e t\u00ebra mbetet vet\u00ebm edhe nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje tjet\u00ebr n\u00eb em\u00ebr praktikisht jo efektive p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mos adresimit t\u00eb problemeve themelore mes shteteve. Nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb skenarin m\u00eb t\u00eb keq Serbia e shfryt\u00ebzon projektin maksimalisht kund\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebs, sidomos duke pasur n\u00ebn sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr komunat serbe t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb tentoj\u00eb t\u2019i nd\u00ebrlidh\u00eb m\u00eb tutje me q\u00ebllim afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb shk\u00ebputjes s\u00eb tyre, dhe pse jo edhe t\u00eb zgjeroj\u00eb ndikimin n\u00eb qendrat politike t\u00eb Prishtin\u00ebs dhe Tiran\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Prandaj, duke pranuar argumentin e Visarit, si parakusht i par\u00eb p\u00ebr minishengen duhet insistuar jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb t\u00eb ket\u00eb trajtim t\u00eb barabart\u00eb, por njohje reciproke (ngase mund t\u00eb thuhet se ka trajtim t\u00eb barabart\u00eb e respektim t\u00eb rregullave edhe pa njohje reciproke q\u00eb e l\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn t\u00eb kontestueshme politikisht.) Dhe parakusht i dyt\u00eb q\u00eb ky treg t\u00eb mos jet\u00eb mini-shengen por ose drejtp\u00ebrdrejt integrim n\u00eb BE \u2013 ose hap paraprak harmonizimi rreth integrimit n\u00eb BE (pa kapacitete t\u00eb nj\u00eb blloku ekonomik ku hiqen tarifat etj.) Integrimi i m\u00ebtutjesh\u00ebm ekonomik me Serbin\u00eb pa pasur edhe lojtar\u00eb tjer\u00eb, q\u00eb mund ta balancojn\u00eb influenc\u00ebn e saj nuk duhet pranuar edhe po t\u00eb b\u00ebhej njohja reciproke ngase vet\u00ebm at\u00ebher\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb regjim dhe mekaniz\u00ebm m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, i cili kontrollon ambiciet e Beogradit. N\u00ebnshkrimi n\u00eb let\u00ebr nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb mekaniz\u00ebm, nd\u00ebrsa balancimi i fuqive po.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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N\u00eb shkrimin e m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm\u00a0Visar Ymeri paraqiti nj\u00eb argument t\u00eb logjiksh\u00ebm se si jasht\u00eb aspektit politik, ku drejt\u00ebsisht k\u00ebrkohet q\u00eb Kosova t\u00eb pranohet si shtet i barabart\u00eb paraprakisht, minishengeni hap nj\u00eb dinamik\u00eb t\u00eb re q\u00eb, si\u00e7 thot\u00eb ai, krahas qarkullimit t\u00eb lir\u00eb t\u00eb mallit e kapitalit, garanton edhe qarkullimin e lir\u00eb t\u00eb njer\u00ebzve. Por, shkrimi n\u00eb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":412,"featured_media":9139,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[11,1543],"ppma_author":[769],"class_list":["post-5441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-kosova","tag-mini-shengeni"],"authors":[{"term_id":769,"user_id":412,"is_guest":0,"slug":"ard-morina","display_name":"Ard Morina","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1674848345608.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1674848345608.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Morina","first_name":"Ard","description":"Ard Morina \u00ebsht\u00eb magjist\u00ebr n\u00eb Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnje Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nga New School University, New York. Analist i tregtis\u00eb, siguris\u00eb dhe zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb decade."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/412"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5441"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9140,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5441\/revisions\/9140"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5441"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}