{"id":5554,"date":"2020-07-27T09:57:03","date_gmt":"2020-07-27T07:57:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5554"},"modified":"2024-10-31T15:53:59","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T13:53:59","slug":"prej-detit-jugor-te-kines-e-deri-ne-kosove","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/prej-detit-jugor-te-kines-e-deri-ne-kosove\/","title":{"rendered":"Prej Detit Jugor t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs e deri n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Lufta e Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore filloi me nj\u00eb krism\u00eb n\u00eb Sarajev\u00eb. Edhe pse vrasja e Princit Austriak, Arkiduk\u00ebs Ferdinand, n\u00eb vitin 1914 ishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb nxitje q\u00eb solli n\u00eb sip\u00ebrfaqe l\u00ebkundjet e at\u00ebhershme gjeopolitike, nuk mund ta n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsojm\u00eb faktin q\u00eb kjo ngjarje u priu dhe ndikoi n\u00eb nj\u00eb seri keqkalkulimesh t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhura q\u00eb eksploduan n\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjaksh\u00ebm global.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebt\u00eb muaj, SHBA-t\u00eb p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb dol\u00ebn me q\u00ebndrimin e qart\u00eb se nuk i njohin si legjitime shumic\u00ebn e pretendimeve t\u00eb Pekinit mbi Detin Jugor Kinez. Ky deklarim (edhe pse jo i papritur) ka mund\u00ebsi t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb definimin e rendit global se Lufta Tregtare apo edhe Epidemia COVID-19. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, ia vlen q\u00eb t\u00eb eksplorohen m\u00eb tutje efektet e k\u00ebsaj politike Amerikane edhe p\u00ebrtej rajonit e kontinentit aziatik.<\/p>\n

Pretendime konkurrente rreth pjes\u00ebve t\u00eb Detit Jugor t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs kan\u00eb Kina, Vietnami, Filipinet, Malajzia dhe Brunei. M\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmet p\u00ebr nga pesha jan\u00eb ato kineze, t\u00eb cilat nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb qarta p\u00ebrtej n\u00ebnt\u00eb vijave t\u00eb deklaruara n\u00eb vitin 1947 e q\u00eb shkojn\u00eb deri n\u00eb 1200 milje nautike larg territorit kinez, dhe m\u00eb af\u00ebr se 200 milje nautike nga territori i Malajzis\u00eb, Filipineve dhe Vietnamit.<\/p>\n

Sipas ligjit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, secili shtet ka t\u00eb drejta sovrane deri 12 milje nautike larg territorit, dhe t\u00eb drejta ekskluzive ekonomike deri 200 milje nautike.\u00a0 N\u00eb vitin 2016, Tribunali i Gjykat\u00ebs s\u00eb P\u00ebrhershme p\u00ebr Nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsim n\u00eb Hag\u00eb kishte vendosur kund\u00ebr pretendimeve t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs, nd\u00ebrsa Pekini vazhdon t\u00eb mohoj\u00eb vendimin.<\/p>\n

R\u00ebnd\u00ebsia e Detit Jugor t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb e shum\u00ebfisht\u00eb, por t\u2019i p\u00ebrmendim dy arsye ky\u00e7e q\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhen direkt edhe me audienc\u00ebn n\u00eb Ballkan e Kosov\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Konflikti<\/strong><\/p>\n

I pari \u00ebsht\u00eb roli q\u00eb ky det mund t\u00eb luaj\u00eb n\u00eb nxitjen e ndonj\u00eb konflikti t\u00eb izoluar mes ndonj\u00ebrit prej shteteve p\u00ebrreth dhe Kin\u00ebs, si dhe p\u00ebrfshirja e mundshme amerikane. N\u00ebse kemi ekonomin\u00eb e dyt\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb, Kin\u00ebn e cila pretendon t\u00eb drejta mbi detin, lundron flot\u00ebn ushtarake me potencial q\u00eb t\u00eb bllokoj\u00eb lundrimin e flotave tjera ushtarake ose komerciale, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr ekonomia e par\u00eb e cila nuk i njeh si legjitime veprimet kineze dhe do t\u00eb lundroj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar l\u00ebvizjen e lir\u00eb t\u00eb anijeve, kjo paraqet mund\u00ebsin\u00eb m\u00eb reale p\u00ebr nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb mes dy fuqive.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb konflikt i till\u00eb edhe mund t\u00eb evitohet. Por, n\u00ebse ndodh mund\u00ebsit\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb i izoluar ku p.sh. n\u00eb vend se t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihet direkt flota Amerikane ajo ndihmon shtetet sikur Filipinet n\u00eb konfrontimin e armatosur me flot\u00ebn Kineze. Edhe pse, \u00e7far\u00ebdo forme q\u00eb do t\u00eb merrte nj\u00eb luft\u00eb e till\u00eb menj\u00ebher\u00eb do t\u00eb krijonte nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb sken\u00ebn nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. E kemi par\u00eb tani p.sh. se si mosbesimi mes SHBA-ve dhe Kin\u00ebs n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si \u00ebsht\u00eb menaxhuar pandemia, shkaktoi nism\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00ebrheqje t\u00eb Uashingtonit nga Organizata Bot\u00ebrore e Sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsis\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa pak\u00ebnaq\u00ebsia e SHBA-ve ndaj menaxhimit t\u00eb Organizat\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore Tregtare n\u00eb trajtimin e k\u00ebrkesave ndaj keqp\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb rregullave nga ana e Kin\u00ebs shkaktoj rr\u00ebnj\u00eb drastike t\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahjes Amerikane p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb organizat\u00eb. Shum\u00eb kritik\u00eb e cekin qasjen e Presidentit t\u00eb SHBA-ve Donald J. Trump n\u00eb marrjen e k\u00ebtyre vendimeve, mir\u00ebpo po ashtu shumica pajtohen se kriza e sistemit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar \u00ebsht\u00eb strukturale dhe m\u00eb e thell\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Me konflikt t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm n\u00eb Detin Jugor t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs, nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb edhe m\u00eb serioze mund ta kaploj\u00eb\u00a0 organizat\u00ebn e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb kemi mjaft shqet\u00ebsim nga shtetet aleate sikur Gjermania dhe Korea Jugore rreth diskutimeve p\u00ebr zvog\u00eblimin e trupave ushtarake e mund\u00ebsisht t\u00ebrheqjes amerikane (edhe n\u00ebse fillimisht m\u00eb shum\u00eb simbolike.) T\u00eb mos harrohet, nj\u00eb tem\u00eb e till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb diskutuar edhe rreth prezenc\u00ebs ushtarake n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb. T\u00eb gjitha shpresat jan\u00eb se nuk ndodhin disa gj\u00ebra t\u00eb k\u00ebqija n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhur: lufta n\u00eb Azi, zbehja e m\u00ebtutjeshme e OKB-s\u00eb dhe rikonfigurimi i trupave amerikane n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb nd\u00ebr tjera e shoq\u00ebruar me t\u00ebrheqje nga Kosova. Por, ilustrimi i nj\u00eb krisme n\u00eb Sarajev\u00eb flet sa nj\u00eb mij\u00eb fjal\u00eb se si kombinimi i disa ngjarjeve negative thuajse papritur mund ta ekspozoj\u00eb bot\u00ebn e rajonin drejt destabilizimit \u2013 nd\u00ebrsa, padyshim, edhe Kosov\u00ebn ndaj rrezikut ekzistencial si nj\u00eb vend i pambrojtur p\u00ebrball\u00eb Serbis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ka duket si nj\u00eb ngjarje e larg\u00ebt n\u00eb Azi, duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrcillet me kujdes nga Qeveria e Kosov\u00ebs, p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr skenar\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb t\u00eb pad\u00ebshiruar, por t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

Tregtia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rreth 80% e tregtis\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare transportohet p\u00ebrmes ujit, nd\u00ebrsa 60% e saj kalon n\u00ebp\u00ebr Azi. Nj\u00eb e treta e tregtis\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare kalon n\u00ebp\u00ebr Detin Jugor t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs duke sh\u00ebrbyer si kanal kritik p\u00ebr qarkullimin e mallrave t\u00eb shk\u00ebmbyera nga Kina, Japonia dhe Korea Jugore t\u00eb cilat varen n\u00eb ngushtic\u00ebn e Malak\u00ebs, q\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidh Detin Jugor t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs dhe Oqeanin Paq\u00ebsor me Oqeanin Indian. K\u00ebto statistika theksojn\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb Detit Jugor kinez duke shpjeguar gjithashtu arsyen e interesimit kinez e amerikan, por edhe t\u00eb fuqive tjera.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb konflikt n\u00eb Detin Jugor t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb favorin e Kin\u00ebs. Rreth 40% e tregtis\u00eb kineze kalon p\u00ebrmes atyre uj\u00ebrave dhe konflikti do t\u00eb shkaktonte d\u00ebme drastike ekonomike. Mir\u00ebpo mund\u00ebsia e p\u00ebrballjes s\u00eb armatosur nuk mund t\u00eb evitohet ngase siguria \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi gjith\u00e7ka dhe shpeshher\u00eb shohim l\u00ebvizje q\u00eb n\u00eb aspektin ekonomik nuk kan\u00eb kuptim (sikur lufta tarifore e tanishme) mir\u00ebpo par\u00eb nga k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimi i siguris\u00eb komb\u00ebtare interesat tjera jan\u00eb dyt\u00ebsore. N\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm, edhe n\u00ebse nuk do t\u00eb ndikonte n\u00eb krijimin e nj\u00eb krize m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe institucionale sikur zbehja apo zhb\u00ebrja e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara, tregtia mund t\u00eb prekej p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn sa zgjat kriza, e cila do t\u00eb ndikonte n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve p\u00ebr arsye se, nd\u00ebr tjera anijet do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb lundronin p\u00ebrmes kanaleve tjera me rrug\u00ebtime m\u00eb t\u00eb gjata, sigurimet e mallrave do t\u00eb ngriheshin, luft\u00ebrat tarifore do t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzoheshin edhe m\u00eb tej, dhe t\u00eb gjitha rrethanat do t\u00eb shkaktonin r\u00ebnie ekonomike (e cila n\u00eb vetvete historikisht ka ushqyer nacionaliz\u00ebm, luft\u00eb, e r\u00ebnie t\u00eb m\u00ebtutjeshme ekonomike.)<\/p>\n

Edhe pse tani gjendemi n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb e cila shpesh po quhet deglobalizim, njer\u00ebzimi asnj\u00ebher\u00eb nuk ka qen\u00eb m\u00eb i nd\u00ebrlidhur. N\u00eb vitet q\u00eb vijojn\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb rajonalizim t\u00eb m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb prodhimit, rritje t\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebs mes Per\u00ebndimit dhe Kin\u00ebs etj. Por, globalizimi nuk zhb\u00ebhet. Globalizimi vet\u00ebm do t\u00eb zhvillohet me karakteristika tjera.<\/p>\n

Kjo n\u00ebnkupton se nd\u00ebrlidhja nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb edhe n\u00eb periudha konflikti, dhe se shtetet do t\u00eb jen\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb varura n\u00eb nj\u00ebra tjetr\u00ebn se ato n\u00eb vitin 1914, 1945 por edhe 2001 kur Kina ju bashk\u00ebngjit Organizat\u00ebs Tregtare Bot\u00ebrore. Me k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst n\u00eb mendje, \u00e7ka ndodh n\u00eb Detin Jugor t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs padyshim se do t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndikim ekonomik e edhe politik n\u00eb Ballkan dhe Kosov\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrsa, Kosov\u00ebs i mbetet p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsi urgjente t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb shikoj\u00eb p\u00ebrtej betejave t\u00eb brendshme politike e rajonale n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mos befasohet nj\u00eb m\u00ebngjes kur shtyllat e sistemit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb ndryshuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyrat m\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7uditshme.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lufta e Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore filloi me nj\u00eb krism\u00eb n\u00eb Sarajev\u00eb. Edhe pse vrasja e Princit Austriak, Arkiduk\u00ebs Ferdinand, n\u00eb vitin 1914 ishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb nxitje q\u00eb solli n\u00eb sip\u00ebrfaqe l\u00ebkundjet e at\u00ebhershme gjeopolitike, nuk mund ta n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsojm\u00eb faktin q\u00eb kjo ngjarje u priu dhe ndikoi n\u00eb nj\u00eb seri keqkalkulimesh t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhura q\u00eb eksploduan n\u00eb konflikt […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":412,"featured_media":9344,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1531,1291,972],"ppma_author":[769],"class_list":["post-5554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-deti-jugor","tag-kine","tag-kosove"],"authors":[{"term_id":769,"user_id":412,"is_guest":0,"slug":"ard-morina","display_name":"Ard Morina","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1674848345608.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1674848345608.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Morina","first_name":"Ard","description":"Ard Morina \u00ebsht\u00eb magjist\u00ebr n\u00eb Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnje Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nga New School University, New York. Analist i tregtis\u00eb, siguris\u00eb dhe zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb decade."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5554","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/412"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5554"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5554\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9080,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5554\/revisions\/9080"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9344"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5554"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}