{"id":5829,"date":"2020-05-18T13:16:04","date_gmt":"2020-05-18T11:16:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5829"},"modified":"2024-10-18T13:18:29","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T11:18:29","slug":"mundesite-dhe-sfidat-e-krijuara-nga-pandemia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/mundesite-dhe-sfidat-e-krijuara-nga-pandemia\/","title":{"rendered":"Mund\u00ebsit\u00eb dhe sfidat e krijuara nga pandemia"},"content":{"rendered":"
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N\u00eb shum\u00eb aspekte bota mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb pauz\u00eb (shtyr\u00eb nga pandemia), por efekti n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb i kund\u00ebrt. L\u00ebkundjet globale, t\u00eb cilat kam ilustruar n\u00eb shkrimet e m\u00ebparshme vet\u00ebm po intensifikohen n\u00eb mesin e kriz\u00ebs globale. Si rezultat kemi nj\u00eb ndeshje t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar kryesisht mes SHBA-ve dhe Kin\u00ebs, me rikonfigurim t\u00eb shteteve tjera si pasoj\u00eb. N\u00eb kombinim me k\u00ebt\u00eb koktej ngjarjesh, r\u00ebnia ekonomike mund t\u00eb \u00e7imentoj\u00eb ndryshimet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb edhe m\u00eb drastike se\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb pritur m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Ndeshja e p\u00ebrshpejtuar\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb nivelet shtet\u00ebrore t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs, jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb filloi t\u00eb qarkulloj\u00eb lajmi i rrejsh\u00ebm se ushtar\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb kan\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur virusin. Si reagim, SHBA-t\u00eb paralajm\u00ebruan Kin\u00ebn se lajme t\u00eb tilla do t\u00eb ken\u00eb konsekuenc\u00eb. Gj\u00eb q\u00eb pasoi me Presidentin Trump duke e quajtur COVID-19 ,Virusi Kinez. Rrjedhimisht u b\u00eb edhe m\u00eb e madhe k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr investigim se virusi mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb filluar n\u00eb laborator t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa bashk\u00ebpunimi n\u00eb shum\u00eb sfera vazhdon, dhe n\u00eb luft\u00ebn tregtare kemi par\u00eb disa vendime nga Kina si shenj\u00eb se duan marr\u00ebveshje q\u00eb k\u00ebrkohet nga Amerika, (p. sh. anulimi i p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm i shum\u00eb tarifave si shenj\u00eb armpushimi) e gjith\u00eb marr\u00ebveshja prap q\u00ebndron fragjile p\u00ebr shkak se pikat ky\u00e7e si vjedhja e pron\u00ebs intelektuale, brengosja e SHBA-ve ndaj investimeve e kompanive kineze n\u00eb sektor\u00eb strategjik\u00eb sikur 5G, dhe tani k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet e reja nga Trump se Amerika mund t\u00eb marr\u00eb masa te reja – t\u00eb gjitha sinjalizojn\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7arje t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb afat t\u00eb shkurt\u00eb, sa m\u00eb af\u00ebr zgjedhjeve n\u00eb SHBA-t\u00eb aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb do t\u00eb rriten mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e intensifikimit t\u00eb tensioneve, ngase ballafaqimi me Kin\u00ebn dhe korrektimi i marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnies ishte edhe nj\u00eb prej premisave t\u00eb garimit t\u00eb Presidentit Trump. N\u00eb \u00e7do rast, edhe po t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb Biden, administrata e re gjithashtu pritet t\u00eb karakterizohet me tensionet e ngjashme (edhe n\u00ebse me qasje m\u00eb sistematike) ngase dilemat nd\u00ebrshtet\u00ebrore jan\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb vend se kriza globale t\u00eb v\u00ebr\u00eb tensionet n\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj pauze, ajo vet\u00ebm sa po ushqen mosbesimin mes dy shteteve.<\/p>\n

Rikonfigurimi<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb koh\u00ebn e pandemis\u00eb, Kina ka p\u00ebrshpejtuar iniciativat p\u00ebr t\u00eb projektuar interesat e veta. Deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb Janarit 2020 ajo kishte n\u00ebnshkruar 200 dokumente p\u00ebr bashk\u00ebpunim n\u00eb projektin e Rrug\u00ebs s\u00eb M\u00ebndafshit, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb 137 shtete. Vet\u00ebm n\u00eb dit\u00ebt e kaluara Presidenti Xi kishte kontaktuar lider\u00ebt e shum\u00eb shteteve me mesazhin e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb: N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb koh\u00eb pandemie, duhet m\u00eb shum\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunim e solidaritet.<\/p>\n

Bashk\u00ebpunimi ka nj\u00eb kuptim tjet\u00ebr kur merr parasysh rivalitetin gjeopolitik n\u00eb kombinim me gjendjen e r\u00ebnd\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb krijuar n\u00eb bot\u00eb. Shum\u00eb kompani n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim kan\u00eb deklaruar dhe do t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb deklarojn\u00eb bankroptim. Dit\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb edhe NATO doli me deklarata paralajm\u00ebruese se p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb gjendjes s\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb ekonomike disa shtete mund t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzojn\u00eb rastin t\u00eb blejn\u00eb kompani dhe asete t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsis\u00eb strategjike n\u00eb vendet an\u00ebtare. Ky komunikim qartas l\u00eb t\u00eb kuptohet si k\u00ebrkes\u00eb p\u00ebr ruajtje nga influenca ekonomike Kineze.<\/p>\n

Diplomacia kineze n\u00eb e koh\u00ebn e pandemis\u00eb po quhet Diplomaci e Mask\u00ebs duke gjykuar nga aktivitetet e Pekinit p\u00ebr t\u00eb dhuruar maska e ndihma tjera n\u00ebp\u00ebr bot\u00eb. Duhet t\u00eb sigurohemi q\u00eb ky term nuk keqkuptohet si akt i izoluar rreth pandemis\u00eb, dhe ia vlen t\u00eb observohet edhe si fushat\u00eb oportuniste shtes\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn p\u00ebr influenc\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb gar\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar aleat\u00eb, nj\u00eb tentim i orkestruar mund t\u00eb v\u00ebrehet nga Kina m\u00eb shum\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebr SHBA-t\u00eb ende shohim p\u00ebrqendrim n\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrime e m\u00eb pak strategji t\u00eb qart\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar ose mir\u00ebmbajtur aleat\u00ebt n\u00eb an\u00ebn e saj. P. sh. ato haptas po k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb nga shtetet tjera q\u00eb t\u00eb refuzojn\u00eb investimet kineze n\u00eb teknologjin\u00eb 5G – por shpesh pa iu ofruar nj\u00eb alternativ\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lir\u00eb. Gjithashtu, shtetet jan\u00eb paralajm\u00ebruar se investimet kineze shkaktojn\u00eb kurthin e borxhit (debt trap), ku Kina investon me p\u00ebrmasa t\u00eb m\u00ebdha duke ditur q\u00eb ai shtet nuk mund t\u00eb kthej\u00eb borxhet me koh\u00eb e ndoshta as investimi nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb profit, por se kur d\u00ebshton partneri q\u00eb ka marr\u00eb borxh detyrohet t\u2019i jap\u00eb autoritet Kin\u00ebs drejt aseteve (e mund\u00ebsisht edhe ndikim n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e brendshme.) Kemi disa raste te tilla, e sa p\u00ebr ilustrim po p\u00ebrmendim investimet n\u00eb port\u00ebn e Hambantota n\u00eb Sri Lanka, ku Kina ka financuar nd\u00ebrtimin me rreth 1.1 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Porta filloi pun\u00ebn n\u00eb humbje dhe duke mos pasur mund\u00ebsi t\u00eb paguaj\u00eb borxhet, u detyrua q\u00eb t\u2019i jepet Kin\u00ebs p\u00ebr 99 vite.<\/p>\n

Xi n\u00eb billbordet e Beogradit<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mbase nuk jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm Amerikan\u00ebt t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar me k\u00ebt\u00eb fushat\u00eb, por edhe Evropian\u00ebt dhe vendet tjera si Japonia, e cila po paguan kompanit\u00eb japoneze q\u00eb t\u00eb zhvendosen nga Kina, na intereson t\u00eb shqyrtojm\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton kjo ndeshje dhe ky rikonfigurim n\u00eb kombinim me pandemin\u00eb edhe p\u00ebrtej vendeve n\u00eb rajon.<\/p>\n

Para se t\u00eb hynim n\u00eb vitin 2020 pritej nj\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsim i zhvillimit ekonomik kryesisht n\u00eb vendet e zhvilluara, por globalisht me tempo pozitive me rritje rreth 3.3%. Me p\u00ebrhapjen e virusit dhe shokun n\u00eb dy an\u00ebt e zinxhirit ekonomik (supply and demand) tani projektohet tkurrje globale rreth -3% sipas Fondit Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar.<\/p>\n

Rritja ekonomike e Serbis\u00eb p\u00ebr 2020 pritej t\u00eb ishte 4% n\u00eb raportin e Tetorit. Kosova gjithashtu figuronte me rritje 4%. Raporti i Prillit 2020 i sjell pritjet n\u00eb negativ -3% p\u00ebr Serbin\u00eb dhe -5% p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Kjo tkurrje drastike paralajm\u00ebron dy gj\u00ebra. T\u00eb dy vendet (p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb tjerat n\u00eb rajon) do t\u00eb ken\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr stimulim ekonomik n\u00eb form\u00ebn e ndihmave \/ kredive nga jasht\u00eb. K\u00ebtu nd\u00ebrlidhet edhe paralajm\u00ebrimi nga NATO. Dhe sa me keq ekonomia, m\u00eb e lart\u00eb mund\u00ebsia e rritjes s\u00eb nacionalizmit e destabilizimit, q\u00eb s\u00eb bashku me politizimin e m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb sistemit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, e b\u00ebn gjendjen edhe m\u00eb sensitive e t\u00eb papredikueshme.<\/p>\n

Ky p\u00ebrshpejtim i ndryshimeve dhe r\u00ebnia drastike ekonomike do e v\u00ebn\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn n\u00eb pozit\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb, por gjithashtu edhe Serbin\u00eb, e cila po t\u00ebrheq\u00eb investime kineze krahasimisht m\u00eb shum\u00eb se \u00e7do vend tjet\u00ebr n\u00eb Ballkan. Beogradi, p\u00ebr \u00e7do kredi, investim apo ndihm\u00eb q\u00eb do ta marr\u00eb nga nj\u00eb fuqi apo institucion do t\u2019i rriten obligimet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Tempo e \u201cneutralitetit\u201d apo \u201cbalancimit\u201d mes fuqive globale nuk mund t\u00eb zgjat\u00eb p\u00ebrjet\u00ebsisht ose t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn imazhi i neutralitetit rrezikohet. Ambicia p\u00ebr integrim n\u00eb BE gjithashtu ose duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbushet ose t\u00eb ndryshohet, me koh\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Me k\u00ebt\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb lir\u00eb t\u00eb sistemit global, \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb favor t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs t\u00eb duroj\u00eb e mos t\u00eb l\u00ebshoj\u00eb pe, t\u00eb l\u00ebr\u00eb Serbin\u00eb t\u00eb vendos\u00eb n\u00ebn rrethanat e reja se \u00e7far\u00eb t\u00eb ardhme e do pa negociuar hise n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb. T\u00eb hiqet mjegulla e Koronavirusit bashk\u00eb me konsekuencat ekonomike e politike para se t\u00eb kthehen pal\u00ebt n\u00eb tavolin\u00eb sepse n\u00ebn depresion ekonomik vet\u00ebm sa rriten mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e destabilizimit.<\/p>\n

Me koh\u00ebn e bler\u00eb, e kan\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi t\u00eb konsolidohen q\u00ebndrimet e t\u00eb gjitha partive n\u00eb pika t\u00eb nj\u00ebjta kund\u00ebr ndarjes apo bosnjezimit n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn q\u00eb t\u00eb rikthehet ekipi negociues n\u00eb pozit\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme. Mbase disa mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb \u201cpremtime\u201d ndaj aleat\u00ebve p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje – tani kemi nj\u00eb realitet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar krejt\u00ebsisht ndryshe e m\u00eb fragjil, i cili doemos duhet t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb rishqyrtim t\u00eb asaj se \u00e7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb diskutuar.<\/p>\n

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N\u00eb shum\u00eb aspekte bota mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb pauz\u00eb (shtyr\u00eb nga pandemia), por efekti n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb i kund\u00ebrt. L\u00ebkundjet globale, t\u00eb cilat kam ilustruar n\u00eb shkrimet e m\u00ebparshme vet\u00ebm po intensifikohen n\u00eb mesin e kriz\u00ebs globale. Si rezultat kemi nj\u00eb ndeshje t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar kryesisht mes SHBA-ve dhe Kin\u00ebs, me rikonfigurim t\u00eb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":412,"featured_media":8709,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1366,1186],"ppma_author":[769],"class_list":["post-5829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-ekonomia","tag-pandemia"],"authors":[{"term_id":769,"user_id":412,"is_guest":0,"slug":"ard-morina","display_name":"Ard Morina","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1674848345608.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1674848345608.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Morina","first_name":"Ard","description":"Ard Morina \u00ebsht\u00eb magjist\u00ebr n\u00eb Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnje Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nga New School University, New York. Analist i tregtis\u00eb, siguris\u00eb dhe zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb decade."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5829","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/412"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5829"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5829\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8710,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5829\/revisions\/8710"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8709"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5829"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5829"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5829"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5829"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}