{"id":5944,"date":"2022-04-05T10:46:41","date_gmt":"2022-04-05T08:46:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5944"},"modified":"2024-10-07T14:24:13","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T12:24:13","slug":"inflacioni-i-importuar-e-shpjegon-tere-inflacionin-ne-kosove-jo-bash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/opinion\/inflacioni-i-importuar-e-shpjegon-tere-inflacionin-ne-kosove-jo-bash\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflacioni i importuar e shpjegon t\u00ebr\u00eb inflacionin n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb? Jo bash"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Trendi i rritjes s\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ka filluar n\u00eb ver\u00ebn e vitit t\u00eb kaluar. Me t\u00eb jan\u00eb rritur edhe brengat e pyetjet rreth shkaktar\u00ebve t\u00eb tij. P\u00ebrgjigjja e par\u00eb dhe m\u00eb e shpesht\u00eb, q\u00eb ka ardhur pothuajse n\u00eb kor, ka qen\u00eb se rritja e \u00e7mimeve \u00ebsht\u00eb e importuar. Pik\u00eb.<\/p>\n

A \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb kjo? Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb rast kur e v\u00ebrteta nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb binare. P\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrgjigjur, duhet ta kujtojm\u00eb betimin q\u00eb shpesh b\u00ebhet n\u00eb raste t\u00eb d\u00ebshmive n\u00eb gjykata ku thuhet se duhet treguar t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebn, t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebn\u00a0e plot\u00eb<\/em>, dhe vet\u00ebm t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebn. Me parametrat e k\u00ebtij formulimi, mund t\u00eb themi se ndikimi i inflacionit t\u00eb importuar \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrteta, por jo e v\u00ebrteta\u00a0e plot\u00eb<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrteta sepse mund t\u2019i num\u00ebrojm\u00eb s\u00eb paku pes\u00eb faktor\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm q\u00eb e shpjegojn\u00eb rritjen e \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb bot\u00eb. Hapja e shpejt\u00eb e ekonomive pas nj\u00eb mbylljeje t\u00eb paprecedent\u00eb ka shkaktuar rritje t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs (psh. akumulim i blerjeve q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb ndodhur gjat\u00eb izolimit) q\u00eb nuk ka mundur t\u00eb mbulohet me ofert\u00eb (psh. \u00e7rregullime n\u00eb zinxhirin furnizues). Nj\u00eb faktor tjet\u00ebr i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb rritja e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe gazit si pasoj\u00eb e nj\u00eb shum\u00ebsie faktor\u00ebsh para luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb (psh. rritja e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs gjat\u00eb dimrit me \u00e7\u2019rast jan\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar rezervat e gazit, implikimet gjeopolitike mes Bashkimit Evropian dhe Rusis\u00eb, etj.). Nj\u00eb faktor zakonisht i neglizhuar \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe ndikimi i kriz\u00ebs klimatike, qoft\u00eb n\u00eb prodhimin bujq\u00ebsor qoft\u00eb n\u00eb prodhimin e energjis\u00eb s\u00eb rip\u00ebrt\u00ebritshme. M\u00eb pas, \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb n\u00eb statistik\u00eb quhet \u201cefekti i baz\u00ebs.\u201d N\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn inflacioni ka qen\u00eb shum\u00eb i ul\u00ebt n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e vendeve t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs dhe rritja e tanishme \u00ebsht\u00eb relative ndaj nj\u00eb baze t\u00eb vog\u00ebl. Dhe, faktori m\u00eb i ri \u00ebsht\u00eb natyrisht lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb (psh. zvog\u00eblimi dhe rreziku p\u00ebr mos furnizim adekuat me grur\u00eb, naft\u00eb, gaz, etj.).<\/p>\n

Por, le t\u00eb kthehemi tek pjesa q\u00eb i mungon t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebs q\u00eb po thuhet. K\u00ebt\u00eb mund ta kuptojm\u00eb p\u00ebrmes krahasimit t\u00eb inflacionit n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, Eurozon\u00eb (meq\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim euron dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb rajoni prej nga importojm\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti), dhe n\u00eb vendet e rajonit (Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb, Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut, Malin e Zi, Serbin\u00eb, Bosnj\u00ebn dhe Hercegovin\u00ebn, dhe Kroacin\u00eb).<\/p>\n

N\u00eb muajin gusht t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar Kosova kishte norm\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb vjetore t\u00eb inflacionit krahasuar me Eurozon\u00ebn dhe vendet e rajonit. N\u00ebrsa n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn shtator-dhjetor, vet\u00ebm Serbia kishte norm\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb se Kosova.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb muajt janar dhe shkurt, respektivisht, t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, inflacioni n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ka qen\u00eb p\u00ebr rreth 39% dhe 27% m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se n\u00eb Eurozon\u00eb, rreth 87% dhe 92% m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, rreth 31% dhe 17% m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se n\u00eb Mal t\u00eb Zi, rreth 29% dhe 19% m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se n\u00eb Kroaci. N\u00eb janar, inflacioni n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ka qen\u00eb rreth 6% m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se n\u00eb Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut dhe rreth 1% m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se n\u00eb Bosnj\u00eb dhe Hercegovin\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb shkurt rreth 3% dhe 7% m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt, respektivisht. Vet\u00ebm n\u00eb krahasim me Serbin\u00eb del se inflacioni n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ka qen\u00eb m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt p\u00ebr rreth 14% dhe 15% – pra n\u00eb t\u00eb dy muajt.<\/p>\n

Kund\u00ebr argumenti i par\u00eb k\u00ebtu mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb se Kosova \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e varur nga importi \u2013 mbase m\u00eb shum\u00eb se vendet e rajonit, dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye ndikimi \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i madh. P\u00ebr ta vler\u00ebsuar k\u00ebt\u00eb, mund ta p\u00ebrdorim raportin e importit t\u00eb mallrave dhe sh\u00ebrbimeve me Bruto Produktin Vendor (BPV). P\u00ebr vitin 2021 ende nuk jan\u00eb publikuar t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat nga t\u00eb gjitha shtetet, por n\u00ebse marrim pes\u00eb vitet paraprake, pra periudh\u00ebn 2016-2020, mesatarja e raportit t\u00eb importit me BPV n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ka qen\u00eb rreth 54%. Vet\u00ebm Shqip\u00ebria dhe Kroacia kan\u00eb pasur nj\u00eb raport m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt \u2013 46% secila. Bosnja dhe Hercevogina e ka pasur nj\u00ebjt\u00eb sa Kosova, nd\u00ebrsa Serbia (57%), Mali i Zi (64%), dhe Maqedonia e Veriut (71%) m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb se Kosova. Pra, as ky kund\u00ebrargument nuk q\u00ebndron.<\/p>\n

A mund t\u00eb shpjegohet ky dallim p\u00ebrmes politikave fiskale e tregtare p\u00ebr importe q\u00eb kan\u00eb shtetet e ndryshme? P\u00ebr shembull, dallimet n\u00eb tatimin mbi vler\u00ebn e shtuar (TVSH), akciz\u00ebn dhe detyrimet doganore? N\u00ebse shohim\u00a0norm\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb TVSH-s\u00eb<\/a>, vet\u00ebm Bosnja dhe Hercegovina (17%) e ka m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt se Kosova (18%). Nd\u00ebrsa norma e reduktuara n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb 8% e n\u00eb vendet e rajonit varion nga 6% n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri deri n\u00eb 13% n\u00eb Kroaci. N\u00ebse e krahasojm\u00eb akciz\u00ebn n\u00eb naft\u00eb, e shohim se vet\u00ebm Mali i Zi (0.44 euro) dhe Serbia (0.48 euro) e kan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb se Kosova (0.36 euro). Mir\u00ebpo,\u00a0barra totale tatimore<\/a>\u00a0n\u00eb \u00e7mimin e naft\u00ebs vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt se n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa detyrimet doganore nuk mund ta ken\u00eb nj\u00eb ndikim shum\u00eb t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr shkak se ato n\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb madhe duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb zero p\u00ebr vendet e rajonit, p\u00ebrmes Marr\u00ebveshjes p\u00ebr Tregti t\u00eb Lir\u00eb n\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn Qendrore (CEFTA), dhe p\u00ebr vendet e Bashkimit Evropian, p\u00ebrmes Marr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb Stabilizim Asociimit. Pra, as politikat fiskale nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr ta shpjeguar k\u00ebt\u00eb dallim.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb q\u00eb raporti i inflacionit mes Kosov\u00ebs dhe Eurozon\u00ebs apo vendeve tjera nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb me nj\u00eb. Tek mallrat e importuara duhet t\u00eb kemi parasysh edhe shpezimet tjera si transporti, apo edhe marzha e fitimit q\u00eb e kan\u00eb tregtar\u00ebt. Sidomos kjo e fundit duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb vendi ku duhet ta k\u00ebrkojm\u00eb shpjegimin e dallimit. Sepse kjo e fundit \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e ndikueshmja nga dinamika e rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve.<\/p>\n

E dinamika e rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00ebfar\u00eb profecie vet\u00ebp\u00ebrmbush\u00ebse. Sa m\u00eb shum\u00eb q\u00eb ka pritje p\u00ebr rritje t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb do t\u00eb rriten ato. Prandaj \u00ebsht\u00eb koh\u00eb e art\u00eb p\u00ebr spekuluesit e tregtar\u00ebt q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb manipulim t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve.<\/p>\n

U desh t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb 10 marsi i k\u00ebtij viti, ku pati nj\u00eb ngritje enorme t\u00eb \u00e7mimit t\u00eb vajit ushqimor, q\u00eb ta kuptojn\u00eb institucionet se \u00e7mimet n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb po rriten jo vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rritjes globale por p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb lakmis\u00eb s\u00eb disa tregtar\u00ebve. Sepse vet\u00eb Dogana e Kosov\u00ebs\u00a0tregoi<\/a>\u00a0se \u00e7mimi p\u00ebr lit\u00ebr vaji t\u00eb importuar n\u00eb vitin 2022 ishte 1.22 deri n\u00eb 1.45 euro, nd\u00ebrsa at\u00eb dit\u00eb ai u shit p\u00ebr 3.49 euro. N\u00ebse e marrim \u00e7mimin m\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjt\u00eb dhe e shtojm\u00eb edhe TVSH-n\u00eb, \u00e7mimi b\u00ebhet 1.57 euro. Pra, s\u00eb paku p\u00ebr nj\u00eb dit\u00eb, tregtar\u00ebt realizuan nj\u00eb fitim bruto prej 122% t\u00eb \u00e7mimit p\u00ebr lit\u00ebr vaji.<\/p>\n

10 marsi \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm rasti m\u00eb eklatant ku rritja e \u00e7mimit nuk po ndikohet nga \u00e7mimi i importit por nga lakmia p\u00ebr ta rritur marzh\u00ebn e fitimit t\u00eb tregtar\u00ebve. Sepse rritja, n\u00eb mas\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb moderuar, \u00ebsht\u00eb duke ndodhur q\u00eb nga vera e vitit t\u00eb kaluar.<\/p>\n

#KOSOVO<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Trendi i rritjes s\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ka filluar n\u00eb ver\u00ebn e vitit t\u00eb kaluar. Me t\u00eb jan\u00eb rritur edhe brengat e pyetjet rreth shkaktar\u00ebve t\u00eb tij. P\u00ebrgjigjja e par\u00eb dhe m\u00eb e shpesht\u00eb, q\u00eb ka ardhur pothuajse n\u00eb kor, ka qen\u00eb se rritja e \u00e7mimeve \u00ebsht\u00eb e importuar. Pik\u00eb. A \u00ebsht\u00eb e […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7966,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[691],"ppma_author":[97],"class_list":["post-5944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-economy"],"authors":[{"term_id":97,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"edison-jakurti","display_name":"Edison Jakurti","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Edison-Jakurti.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Edison-Jakurti.jpeg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","description":"Edison Jakurti \u00ebsht\u00eb doktorant i shkencave ekonomike n\u00eb Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin. M\u00eb her\u00ebt ai i ka p\u00ebrfunduar studimet e nivelit master p\u00ebr politikat e zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, me fokus n\u00eb ekonomiksin aplikativ, n\u00eb Duke University, dhe studimet themelore n\u00eb drejtimin ekonomiks dhe statistik\u00eb n\u00eb R.I.T. Ka punuar si asistent hulumtues dhe asistent ligj\u00ebrues n\u00eb Duke University, si dhe k\u00ebshilltar n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn Bot\u00ebrore."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5944"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5944\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7996,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5944\/revisions\/7996"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5944"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}