{"id":5963,"date":"2022-02-15T15:50:13","date_gmt":"2022-02-15T13:50:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5963"},"modified":"2024-10-15T15:51:22","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T13:51:22","slug":"gabimi-gjeo-strategjik-i-perendimit-ne-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/opinion\/gabimi-gjeo-strategjik-i-perendimit-ne-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Gabimi gjeo-strategjik i Per\u00ebndimit n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Kriza n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb vazhdon t\u00eb mbetet nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr lajmet kryesore n\u00eb Europ\u00eb dhe bot\u00eb. M\u00eb 18 mars b\u00ebhen tet\u00eb vite q\u00eb nga aneksimi i Krimes\u00eb nga Rusia. Q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb,\u00a0Ukraina \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebn frik\u00ebn konstante t\u00eb\u00a0agresionit rus<\/a>\u00a0dhe rrezikut t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit n\u00eb luft\u00eb totale.<\/p>\n

Situata n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb u tensionua si rezultat i disa vendimeve nga Per\u00ebndimi t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequra nga lidershipi i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs. P\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar thelbin e problemit dhe si erdhi situata deri k\u00ebtu, dekonstruktimi i ngjarjeve dhe dallimet mes interesave gjeo-strategjike Per\u00ebndimore dhe ruse jan\u00eb t\u00eb domosdoshme.<\/p>\n

Ky shkrim argumenton mbi arsyet se pse Per\u00ebndimi tentoi ta largoj\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn nga influenca ruse. Gjithashtu, analizon arsyet se pse Rusia, si kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigje, vendosi t\u00eb pushtoj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb territorit ukrainas. P\u00ebrfundimisht, ky shkrim ka p\u00ebr q\u00ebllim t\u00eb identifikoj\u00eb se kush \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsi kryesor i kriz\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Gjith\u00e7ka filloi me Samitin e NATO-s n\u00eb Bukuresht n\u00eb 2008<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gjeneza e problemit n\u00eb\u00a0Ukrain\u00eb lindi n\u00eb vitin 2008 kur NATO mbajti samitin e saj n\u00eb Bukuresht t\u00eb Rumanis\u00eb. Nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr pikat ky\u00e7e t\u00eb samitit ishte\u00a0pika 23<\/a>\u00a0e cila thot\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb ekskluzive se Ukraina dhe Gjeorgjia do t\u00eb b\u00ebhen an\u00ebtare t\u00eb NATO-s.<\/p>\n

\u201cNATO mir\u00ebpret aspiratat euro-atlantike t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe Gjeorgjis\u00eb p\u00ebr an\u00ebtar\u00ebsim n\u00eb NATO. Ne ram\u00eb dakord sot q\u00eb k\u00ebto vende t\u00eb b\u00ebhen an\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb NATO-s,\u201d shkruan n\u00eb deklarat\u00ebn p\u00ebrfundimtare t\u00eb samitit.<\/p>\n

Presidenti rus Vladimir Putin i vler\u00ebsoi k\u00ebto plane si k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim direkt ndaj Rusis\u00eb dhe u deklarua publikisht se nuk do ta toleronte nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, Per\u00ebndimi vazhdoi me planin e saj. P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, n\u00eb gusht 2008, Rusia pushtoi pjes\u00eb t\u00eb territorit t\u00eb Gjeorgjis\u00eb, Abkhazin\u00eb dhe Osetin\u00eb Jugore.<\/p>\n

Gjasht\u00eb vite m\u00eb von\u00eb, protestat masive gjithpopullore (t\u00eb cilat g\u00ebzuan mb\u00ebshtetjen e Per\u00ebndimit) p\u00ebr muaj me rradh\u00eb n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb kulminuan me rr\u00ebzimin e Presidentit Viktor Yanukovych dhe qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb tij. L\u00ebvizja gjithpopullore e cila njihet edhe si \u201cRevolucioni i Dinjitetit\u201d u pa si nj\u00eb fillim im i ri p\u00ebr vendin drejt reformave demokratike dhe integrimit euro-atlantik.<\/p>\n

Kremlini zyrtar e vler\u00ebsoi k\u00ebt\u00eb moment si kritik ndaj siguris\u00eb s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb dhe po n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb moment, forcat ruse filluan zbarkimin n\u00eb pikat ky\u00e7e t\u00eb Krimes\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb filluar zbatimin e planit t\u00eb aneksimit. Nj\u00eb muaj m\u00eb von\u00eb, konflikti p\u00ebrhapet edhe n\u00eb rajonin e Donbas. Si rezultat, pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs lindore bien n\u00ebn okupimin rus, duke krijuar nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb serioze n\u00eb vend dhe bllokuar \u00e7do mund\u00ebsi reale t\u00eb integrimit euro-atlantik.<\/p>\n

Per\u00ebndimi u befasua nga k\u00ebto zhvillime. Per\u00ebndimi anashkaloi nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr m\u00ebsimet baz\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, kur shtetet ndihen t\u00eb rrezikuara ato reagojn\u00eb me forc\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Interesat ruse kundrejt Per\u00ebndimit n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Putin nuk do ta lejoj\u00eb asnj\u00ebher\u00eb NATO-n para dyerve t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb. N\u00eb rrethanat aktuale, Krimea nuk do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet baz\u00eb ushtarake e NATO-s. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin drejtim, vlerat demokratike dhe integrimi europian p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb rrezik serioz ndaj regjimit t\u00eb Putin. Prandaj, integrimi i Ukrain\u00ebs drejt strukturave euro-atlantike duket mision i pamundur.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrtej interesave politike dhe ushtarake, Ukraina ka nj\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr historin\u00eb dhe trash\u00ebgimin\u00eb kulturore ruse. Gjeneza e themelimit t\u00eb shtetit modern rus daton nga shekulli i n\u00ebnt\u00eb, n\u00eb koh\u00ebn kur u themeluan shtetet e para sllave t\u00eb Lindjes n\u00eb eopk\u00ebn e \u201cRusit Kievian\u201d. Shteti m\u00eb i fuqish\u00ebm qe u ngrit pas r\u00ebnies s\u00eb Rusit Kievian ishte \u201cDuka i Madh i Mosk\u00ebs\u201d q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshinte territorin veri-per\u00ebndimor t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb s\u00eb sotme.<\/p>\n

Rusia nuk e ka p\u00ebr q\u00ebllim pushtimin total t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs apo krijimin e \u201cRusis\u00eb s\u00eb Madhe\u201d si\u00e7 argumentohet nga disa opinionist\u00eb. Me vendimet e tij, Putin po tregon se Per\u00ebndimi i ka vet\u00ebm dy mund\u00ebsi: Garanci p\u00ebr largimin e aspiratave euro-atlantike p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn dhe kthimin n\u00eb status-quo si\u00e7 ishte para vitit 2008, apo vazhdimin e politik\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00eb dhe konfliktit n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr dallim nga Rusia, Ukraina nuk konsiderohet interes vital i Per\u00ebndimit. Shtetet an\u00ebtare t\u00eb NATO-s nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb gatshme t\u00eb futen n\u00eb konflikt me Rusin\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Konfrontimi me Rusin\u00eb nuk i sh\u00ebrben aspak Per\u00ebndimit. Bashkimi Europian \u00ebsht\u00eb i varur nga gasi natyror rus dhe kriza n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb ka ngritur \u00e7mimet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb enorme duke ndikuar direkt n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e BE-s\u00eb. Gjithashtu, n\u00eb koh\u00ebn kur interesi ky\u00e7 i politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme amerikane \u00ebsht\u00eb Kina, ShBA-t\u00eb do ta kalibronin nj\u00eb qasje m\u00eb efektive n\u00eb raport me Kin\u00ebn me Rusin\u00eb n\u00eb ekuacion.<\/p>\n

Si p\u00ebrfundim, edhe pse n\u00eb shikim t\u00eb par\u00eb Rusia shihet si p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsi kryesor n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, mungesa e gjykimit t\u00eb duhur dhe keqkalkulimi n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb krijuan nj\u00eb klim\u00eb t\u00eb tensionuar p\u00ebr superfuqin\u00eb ushtarake t\u00eb dyt\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb, e cila nuk do ta duronte n\u00eb asnj\u00eb rrethan\u00eb pranin\u00eb e NATO-s para sht\u00ebpis\u00eb s\u00eb saj. Prandaj, p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsi kryesor i rr\u00ebmuj\u00ebs s\u00eb krijuar n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00eb Per\u00ebndimi.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kriza n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb vazhdon t\u00eb mbetet nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr lajmet kryesore n\u00eb Europ\u00eb dhe bot\u00eb. M\u00eb 18 mars b\u00ebhen tet\u00eb vite q\u00eb nga aneksimi i Krimes\u00eb nga Rusia. Q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb,\u00a0Ukraina \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebn frik\u00ebn konstante t\u00eb\u00a0agresionit rus\u00a0dhe rrezikut t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit n\u00eb luft\u00eb totale. Situata n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb u tensionua si rezultat i disa vendimeve nga Per\u00ebndimi t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequra […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":7972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[1306,637,1000,1117,671],"ppma_author":[20],"class_list":["post-5963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-gjeorgjia","tag-nato","tag-politike-e-jashtme","tag-rusi","tag-ukraine"],"authors":[{"term_id":20,"user_id":4,"is_guest":0,"slug":"visar","display_name":"Visar Xhambazi","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Visar-Xhambazi_Headshot-scaled-1-e1778848717235.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Visar-Xhambazi_Headshot-scaled-1-e1778848717235.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Xhambazi","first_name":"Visar","description":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5963"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5963\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8366,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5963\/revisions\/8366"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5963"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}