{"id":5995,"date":"2020-04-09T15:24:25","date_gmt":"2020-04-09T13:24:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5995"},"modified":"2024-10-15T15:39:32","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T13:39:32","slug":"kurba-pandemike-dhe-kurba-politike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/kurba-pandemike-dhe-kurba-politike\/","title":{"rendered":"Kurba pandemike dhe kurba politike"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Kur mediat raportojn\u00eb p\u00ebr aq apo kaq t\u00eb infektuar t\u00eb tjer\u00eb me koronavirus, ato nuk thon\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebn, por meq\u00eb ndoshta k\u00ebt\u00eb informacion t\u00eb gabuar e japin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pafajshme, nuk po i akuzoj p\u00ebr \u201cfake news.\u201d N\u00eb fakt, ata persona q\u00eb raportohen nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb infektuar t\u00eb rinj por thjesht t\u00eb infektuar simptomatik\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebt paraqiten n\u00eb institucionet sh\u00ebndetsore p\u00ebr ndihm\u00eb. Sipas t\u00eb gjitha gjasave, pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e t\u00eb infektuarve me koronavirus nuk kan\u00eb asnj\u00eb simptom\u00eb dhe mijra nga ne ose jemi tashm\u00eb t\u00eb infektuar dhe nuk e dijm\u00eb, ose kemi qen\u00eb t\u00eb infektuar m\u00eb par\u00eb dhe jemi sh\u00ebruar dhe imunizuar tashm\u00eb. Raporte t\u00eb reja tregojn\u00eb se t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb emigrant kinez 35 vje\u00e7ar (pacienti 0), i kthyer n\u00eb mes t\u00eb Janarit n\u00eb shtetin e Uashingtonit n\u00eb ShBA pas nj\u00eb vizite te familjar\u00ebt e tij n\u00eb Uhan t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs, u shtrua n\u00eb spital n\u00eb periferi t\u00eb Siatllit me simptoma q\u00eb sot identifikohen me s\u00ebmundjen Covid-19 t\u00eb shkaktuar nga koronavirusi.\u00a0Ka gjasa q\u00eb virusi t\u00eb ket\u00eb qen\u00eb mes nesh shum\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb nga sa e kemi ditur. K\u00ebtu do gjejm\u00eb thelbin e arsyetimit se pse karantinat e shteteve t\u00eb t\u00ebra jan\u00eb politika t\u00eb d\u00ebshtuara dhe se rrezikojm\u00eb q\u00eb \u201ckura\u201d e izolimit t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb vrastare se sa vet\u00eb virusi.<\/p>\n

Q\u00eb karantinat kan\u00eb d\u00ebshtuar, k\u00ebt\u00eb na e tha vet\u00eb dje Drejtori Ekzekutiv i Programit t\u00eb Emergjencave t\u00eb\u00a0Organizat\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb Sh\u00ebndetsis\u00eb<\/a>\u00a0Majk\u00ebll Rajan [Michael Ryan] kur deklaroi se pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e infektimeve t\u00eb reja t\u00eb zbuluara jan\u00eb mes njer\u00ebzve q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb n\u00eb izolim prej shum\u00eb koh\u00ebsh.. M\u00eb pas ai nuk harroi t\u00eb shtoj\u00eb se tashm\u00eb virusi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb n\u00eb rrug\u00eb por ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi.\u00a0Nj\u00eb raportim nga Hong Kongu\u00a0<\/a>sugjeron se nj\u00eb grua e infektuar mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb infektuar edhe njer\u00ebz t\u00eb tjer\u00eb n\u00eb bllokun e apartamenteve ku banon deri 10 kate posht\u00eb banes\u00ebs s\u00eb saj nga nj\u00eb rrjedhje n\u00eb tubacionin e ujrave t\u00eb zeza.\u00a0Me sa duket, nj\u00eb nga m\u00ebnyrat e p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb koronavirusit jan\u00eb ujrat e zeza. Ky nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundim spekulativ;\u00a0n\u00eb vitin 2002 OBSh raportoi\u00a0<\/a>nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundim i ngjash\u00ebm p\u00ebr p\u00ebrhapjen e SARS-it.\u00a0Pa dashur t\u00eb ndalem tek masat skizofrenike\u00a0q\u00eb propozoi zyrtari i lart\u00eb i OBSh-s\u00eb<\/a>, si p\u00ebr shembull q\u00eb qeverit\u00eb t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb kontrollet n\u00ebp\u00ebr sht\u00ebpit\u00eb e njer\u00ebzve dhe t\u00eb nxjerrin prej andej njer\u00ebzit e s\u00ebmur\u00eb (e tha edhe k\u00ebt\u00eb, verifikojeni vet\u00eb po desh\u00ebt), dua vet\u00ebm t\u00eb n\u00ebnvizoj nj\u00eb induksion nga deklarata e tij: n\u00ebse virusi tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi, \u00e7\u2019kuptim ka t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojm\u00eb t\u00eb mbyllur?<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb ese t\u00eb m\u00ebher\u00ebshme\u00a0t\u00eb botuar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb media<\/a>\u00a0pata theksuar se askush nuk po di se \u00e7\u2019b\u00ebn, por tashm\u00eb m\u00eb duhet t\u00eb shtoj se ata q\u00eb po dijn\u00eb m\u00eb pak jan\u00eb politikan\u00ebt. Dhe, kam luftuar shum\u00eb me veten q\u00eb t\u00eb nxirrja k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00eb po them por, p\u00ebrtej kujdesit intensiv ndaj pacientit, duket qart\u00eb se edhe mjek\u00ebt nuk po dijn\u00eb asgj\u00eb p\u00ebr at\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb po ndodh. Dhe ja pse. Epidemiolog\u00ebt parashikojn\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen dhe pastaj tkurrjen e epidemis\u00eb bazuar n\u00eb modele matematikore t\u00eb infektimit t\u00eb cilat p\u00ebrb\u00ebhen nga sisteme ekuacionesh diferenciale. Prirja e k\u00ebtyre modeleve \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb ta parathon\u00eb dinamik\u00ebn e epidemis\u00eb n\u00eb form\u00ebn e nj\u00eb kurbe e cila ngrihet gjat\u00eb periudh\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb epidemis\u00eb, mb\u00ebrrin pikun dhe pastaj fillon r\u00ebnien dhe rrafshohet n\u00eb nivele t\u00eb kontrollueshme. N\u00eb kushtet kur tashm\u00eb kemi modele elegante dhe efi\u00e7iente, ajo \u00e7ka na mbetet t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb vendosim vlera t\u00eb v\u00ebrteta n\u00eb parametrat matematikor\u00eb dhe t\u00eb simulojm\u00eb kompjuterikisht parashikime se kur kurba do mb\u00ebrrij\u00eb pikun. Nd\u00ebr variablet e p\u00ebrdorur jan\u00eb aft\u00ebsia infektuese e virusit (tashm\u00eb p\u00ebr koronavirusin \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrllogaritur 2.5), koha e fillimit t\u00eb infeksionit n\u00eb popullsi, p\u00ebrqindja e infektuar e popullsis\u00eb, p\u00ebrqindja e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb sh\u00ebruar dhe imunizuar, p\u00ebrqindja e vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb mes atyre q\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb infektuar e t\u00eb tjera. P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mbartjes asimptomatike t\u00eb virusit nga shum\u00eb individ\u00eb dhe munges\u00ebs s\u00eb depistimeve t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, nuk ka informacion t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr shumic\u00ebn e k\u00ebtyre variableve dhe k\u00ebsisoj nuk mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhen parashikime t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr form\u00ebn apo dinamikat e kurb\u00ebs s\u00eb infektimit. Islanda \u00ebsht\u00eb shteti q\u00eb, me 5 p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb depistuar ka mostr\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe. Rezultatet tregojn\u00eb se gjysma e personave q\u00eb kan\u00eb rezultuar pozitiv ndaj Covid-19-\u00ebs nuk kan\u00eb treguar asnj\u00eb simptom\u00eb, por shkenctar\u00ebt t\u00ebrheqin v\u00ebrejtjen se kjo mund t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb sipas\u00a0kontekstit socioekonomik e kulturor t\u00eb seicilit vend.<\/a><\/p>\n

Mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebsit mes nesh t\u00eb karantin\u00ebs (atyre t\u00eb cil\u00ebve u p\u00eblqen t\u00eb na bezdisin me mesazhin pseudokujdesor \u201cQ\u00ebndro i sigurt n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi!\u201d) na kujtojn\u00eb se qenkan shp\u00ebtuar shum\u00eb jet\u00eb njer\u00ebzish dhe se karantina ka funksionuar. Por ata nuk mund ta dijn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb. N\u00eb fakt, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb slogan q\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti p\u00ebrhapet nga qeverit\u00eb dhe institucionet q\u00eb ato kontrollojn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb maskuar konfuzionin ku ato ndodhen dhe justifikuar masat absurde t\u00eb karantinimit t\u00eb shteteve t\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb (e para her\u00eb q\u00eb ndodh n\u00eb historin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore). Ja edhe nj\u00eb fakt m\u00eb shum\u00eb se qeverit\u00eb nuk dijn\u00eb se \u00e7\u2019b\u00ebjn\u00eb: teksa ato detyrojn\u00eb njer\u00ebzit q\u00eb t\u00eb vendosin maska goje n\u00eb publik, zyrtar\u00ebt e lart\u00eb t\u00eb OBSh-s\u00eb-s\u00eb thon\u00eb se, jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb nuk ka asnj\u00eb arsye pse nj\u00eb person jo i s\u00ebmur\u00eb t\u00eb vendos\u00eb mask\u00eb n\u00eb publik, por edhe se vendosja e mask\u00ebs n\u00eb publik mund t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrohet me keqp\u00ebrdorim t\u00eb saj dhe k\u00ebsisoj edhe\u00a0rritjen e rrezikut t\u00eb infektimit.<\/a><\/p>\n

Mbasi fol\u00ebm deri tani p\u00ebr gjerat q\u00eb askush nuk i di, le t\u00eb themi tani disa gj\u00ebra q\u00eb dihen faktikisht dhe shkenc\u00ebrisht. Dhjetra mijra vet\u00eb mes nesh (dhe miliona anemban\u00eb bot\u00ebs) kan\u00eb humbur ose do t\u00eb humbin pun\u00ebn prej kriz\u00ebs ekonomike q\u00eb konsensualisht pritet q\u00eb do pasoj\u00eb. Papun\u00ebsia, individuale apo masive krijon trauma t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme individuale dhe sociale. Nj\u00eb studim i kryer n\u00eb vitin 1967 nga dy psikiat\u00ebr amerikan\u00eb, Tomas Holms [Thomas Holmes] dhe Ri\u00e7ard Rejh [Richard Rahe], t\u00eb cil\u00ebt po studionin ndikimin e stresit nga p\u00ebrvojat traumatike jet\u00ebsore mbi s\u00ebmundjet, konstatoi se p\u00ebr shum\u00eb vet\u00eb humbja e vendit t\u00eb pun\u00ebs konsiderohej m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00eb se vdekja e nj\u00eb njeriu shum\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrt (shok i ngusht\u00eb apo an\u00ebtar i familjes).Nj\u00eb raport nga Shtetet e Bashkuara n\u00eb vitin 2010<\/a>\u00a0tregonte se mbyllja e nj\u00eb fabrike u shoq\u00ebrua me nj\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb pazakont\u00eb goditjesh n\u00eb zem\u00ebr mes ish-puntor\u00ebve t\u00eb saj.\u00a0Nj\u00eb jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, nj\u00eb sherif amerikan nga Karolina e Veriut raportonte se, vet\u00ebm n\u00eb dy dit\u00ebt e para t\u00eb karantinimit t\u00eb kontes\u00eb s\u00eb tij, p\u00ebrqindja e vet\u00ebvrasjeve apo p\u00ebrpjekjeve p\u00ebr vet\u00ebvrasje ishte sa\u00a010 p\u00ebrqind e gjith\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar.<\/a><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr gj\u00eb po ashtu e dijm\u00eb. Papun\u00ebsin\u00eb e shkaktuar artificialisht nga politika p\u00ebr llogaritje t\u00eb vogla politike nuk do ta vuajn\u00eb politikan\u00ebt (lexo shkrimin tim t\u00eb m\u00ebhersh\u00ebm n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb media \u201cKriza pandemike dhe kriza politike\u201d). T\u00eb gjith\u00eb e dijm\u00eb se nj\u00eb grusht i caktuar njer\u00ebzish n\u00eb politik\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb papun\u00eb asnj\u00eb dit\u00eb k\u00ebto dekadat e fundit dhe nuk do mbeten t\u00eb papun\u00eb edhe n\u00eb dit\u00ebt e kriz\u00ebs sociekonomike q\u00eb po thurin. P\u00ebrvojat e dekadave t\u00eb fundit tregojn\u00eb se kur votuesit e nxjerrin nj\u00eb politikan jasht\u00eb zyre nga dera me vota, ai\/ajo rikthehet n\u00eb zyr\u00eb nga dritarja me parti. Viktimat e kriz\u00ebs q\u00eb po thuret nuk do jen\u00eb m\u00eb as t\u00eb vjetrit apo t\u00eb s\u00ebmur\u00ebt q\u00eb po bien p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht pre e Covid-19-\u00ebs. Viktimat e t\u00eb nes\u00ebrmes do jen\u00eb mes shtres\u00ebs m\u00eb aktive t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb. At\u00ebhere do jet\u00eb tep\u00ebr von\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb pyetur n\u00ebse i b\u00ebm\u00eb pun\u00ebt si duhet.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kur mediat raportojn\u00eb p\u00ebr aq apo kaq t\u00eb infektuar t\u00eb tjer\u00eb me koronavirus, ato nuk thon\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebn, por meq\u00eb ndoshta k\u00ebt\u00eb informacion t\u00eb gabuar e japin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pafajshme, nuk po i akuzoj p\u00ebr \u201cfake news.\u201d N\u00eb fakt, ata persona q\u00eb raportohen nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb infektuar t\u00eb rinj por thjesht t\u00eb infektuar simptomatik\u00eb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":168,"featured_media":8353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[972,1186,998],"ppma_author":[197],"class_list":["post-5995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-kosove","tag-pandemia","tag-politike"],"authors":[{"term_id":197,"user_id":168,"is_guest":0,"slug":"ridvan-peshkopia","display_name":"Ridvan Peshkopia","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/download-4-8.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/download-4-8.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Peshkopia","first_name":"Ridvan","description":"Ridvan Peshkopia \u00ebsht\u00eb Lektor i Metodave K\u00ebrkimore n\u00eb Universitetin p\u00ebr Biznes dhe Teknologji Kosov\u00eb. Ai e ka\r\nmar\u00eb doktoratur\u00ebn n\u00eb shkenca politike nga Universiteti i Kentakit n\u00eb ShBA dhe ka qen\u00eb studiues post-doktoral n\u00eb\r\nUniversitetin Xhorxh Uashington. Fusha e tij e hulumtimit shtrihet gj\u00ebr\u00ebsisht n\u00eb modelimet matematikore dhe\r\nstatistikore t\u00eb sjelljes politike."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/168"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5995"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8354,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5995\/revisions\/8354"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5995"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}