{"id":6029,"date":"2022-01-12T13:04:57","date_gmt":"2022-01-12T11:04:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=6029"},"modified":"2024-10-17T13:06:33","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T11:06:33","slug":"kurthi-i-tukididit-dhe-marredheniet-shba-kine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/opinion\/kurthi-i-tukididit-dhe-marredheniet-shba-kine\/","title":{"rendered":"Kurthi i Tukididit dhe marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet ShBA-Kin\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kuadri i marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve Amerik\u00eb-Kin\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb padyshim p\u00ebrcaktues i s\u00eb ardhmes s\u00eb rendit e paqes bot\u00ebrore. Viteve t\u00eb fundit, rivaliteti nd\u00ebrmjet Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs dhe Kin\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb intensifikuar duksh\u00ebm. Nj\u00eb mori tensionesh strategjike, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb mosmarr\u00ebveshjet tregtare, e ardhmja e Tajvanit, vizionet e ndryshme p\u00ebr detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore e deri tek gara p\u00ebr inteligjenc\u00eb artificiale do t\u00eb jen\u00eb fushat n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat do t\u00eb thellohet p\u00ebrplasja sino-amerikane. Sikurse shum\u00eb her\u00eb t\u00eb tjera p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb dekadave, pyetja thelb\u00ebsore, e shtruar jo rrall\u00ebher\u00eb edhe si frik\u00eb ekzistenciale, \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje e till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e paevitueshme?<\/p>\n

Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie t\u00eb trazuara<\/strong><\/p>\n

50 vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb, nj\u00eb udh\u00ebtim i fsheht\u00eb i Henry Kissinger n\u00eb Pekin, at\u00ebbot\u00eb k\u00ebshilltar i siguris\u00eb komb\u00ebtare i Presidentit Richard Nixon, do ta fillonte p\u00ebrfshirjen e Kin\u00ebs n\u00eb rendin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar. Marr\u00eb parasysh marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb, nj\u00eb hap i till\u00eb kishte nj\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi t\u00eb madhe strategjike p\u00ebr SHBA-n\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar Bashkimin Sovjetik dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb nga brenda bot\u00ebn komuniste.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa po hartonin komunikat\u00ebn e vizit\u00ebs s\u00eb fsheht\u00eb, Kissinger shpjegon n\u00eb librin e tij \u201cOn China\u201d se kryeministri kinez kishte deklaruar se \u201ckjo do ta trondiste bot\u00ebn\u201d. N\u00eb fakt, si ShBA-ja, ashtu edhe Kina, po b\u00ebnin kap\u00ebrcime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha ideologjike. ShBA-ja po bashk\u00ebpunonte me nj\u00eb vend komunist q\u00eb vazhdimisht shfryt\u00ebzonte retorike anti-imperialiste karshi Washingtonit, nd\u00ebrsa Kina p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb po hynte n\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie nd\u00ebrmjet t\u00eb barabart\u00ebve. Deri m\u00eb 1971, Kina nuk kishte marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie normale me bot\u00ebn \u2013 ndon\u00ebse e kolonializuar n\u00eb shekullin XIX, ajo vazhdimisht i shihte vendet e tjera si t\u00eb n\u00ebnshtruara ndaj Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Mesit.<\/p>\n

Q\u00eb nga at\u00ebher\u00eb, historia e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrmjet dy superfuqive \u00ebsht\u00eb e mbushur plot m\u00eb paqart\u00ebsi, vizione t\u00eb ndryshme p\u00ebr bot\u00ebn e pik\u00ebpamje strategjike t\u00eb dallueshme. Me gjith\u00eb ulje-ngritjet n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet e nd\u00ebrsjella, t\u00eb dy vendet gjat\u00eb projektimit t\u00eb interesave komb\u00ebtar\u00eb kan\u00eb p\u00ebrllogaritur edhe pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb e nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebs. Gjersa gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb nuk kishte aleanc\u00eb formale, pas r\u00ebnies s\u00eb Murit t\u00eb Berlinit ShBA-ja dhe Kina zhvilluan marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet bileterale n\u00ebn iden\u00eb e bashk\u00ebjetes\u00ebs paq\u00ebsore. P\u00ebr dallim nga vitet \u201890 dhe 2000, kur bashk\u00ebpunimi ishte kryesisht rreth liberalizimit ekonomik, tashm\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnia nd\u00ebrmjet dy vendeve \u00ebsht\u00eb rikthyer n\u00eb rivalitet.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb bot\u00ebkuptimin e ShBA-s\u00eb, Kina paraqet nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb t\u00eb paprecedent\u00eb, e cila duhet t\u00eb menaxhohet. P\u00ebr Kin\u00ebn, q\u00eb vuan nga sindroma e rikthimit t\u00eb \u2018shekullit t\u00eb posht\u00ebrimit\u2019, ekziston frika se ShBA-ja po tenton ta frenoj\u00eb ngritjen paq\u00ebsore t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs. Analiza t\u00eb shumta ofrojn\u00eb pik\u00ebpamje t\u00eb ndryshme p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb ato m\u00eb apokaliptiket q\u00eb proklamojn\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje t\u00eb paevitueshme nd\u00ebrmjet dy fuqive b\u00ebrthamore e deri te t\u00eb tilla q\u00eb sh\u00ebnjojn\u00eb fillesat e nj\u00eb Lufte t\u00eb Re t\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Pengje t\u00eb historis\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nuk ka dilem\u00eb se historia \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb fush\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00ebsis\u00eb dhe sfond vendimtar n\u00eb studimin e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, \u2018Historia e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Peloponezit\u2019 e Tukididit, e shkruar 2400 vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb, ofron nj\u00eb burim t\u00eb pashtersh\u00ebm t\u00eb interpretimeve p\u00ebr bot\u00ebn aktuale. I konsideruar si themeluesi i teoris\u00eb s\u00eb realizmit n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, Tukididi theksonte se frika e Spart\u00ebs nga rritja e fuqis\u00eb s\u00eb Athin\u00ebs e b\u00ebri t\u00eb paevitueshme luft\u00ebn e Peloponezit. Pra, dallimet n\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjen e fuqis\u00eb dhe perceptimet e ndryshme mbi nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebn ishin shkaqet themelore t\u00eb luft\u00ebs nd\u00ebrmjet qytet-shteteve greke.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb interpretim i till\u00eb i Tukididit ka fituar popullaritet t\u00eb konsideruesh\u00ebm viteve t\u00eb fundit fal\u00eb nj\u00eb autori t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm amerikan. Graham T. Allison, profesor i shkenc\u00ebs politike n\u00eb Harvard, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00ebri nd\u00ebr mendjet e m\u00ebdha q\u00eb ka shfryt\u00ebzuar k\u00ebt\u00eb ide t\u00eb Tukididit p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb korniz\u00eb teorike shpjeguese p\u00ebr rivalitetin ShBA-Kin\u00eb, q\u00eb gjer\u00ebsisht njihet si \u2018kurthi i Tukididit\u2019. Sipas Allisonit, kurdo q\u00eb nj\u00eb fuqi n\u00eb ngritje konfrontoi nj\u00eb fuqi sunduese t\u00eb etabluar, rezultati shumic\u00ebn e her\u00ebve ishte lufta. N\u00eb 500 vjet\u00ebt e fundit \u2013 sqaronte tutje Allison \u2013 nga 16 rastet kur nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e till\u00eb ndodhi, 12 nga to p\u00ebrfunduan n\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje t\u00eb dhunshme. Prandaj \u2013 shkruante Allison n\u00eb librin e tij \u201cDestined for War\u201d \u2013 nj\u00eb Kin\u00eb me rritje t\u00eb pandalshme \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb rrug\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrplasur me Amerik\u00ebn. Dhe bazuar n\u00eb trajektoren e tanishme, lufta nd\u00ebrmjet ShBA-s\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebs n\u00eb dekadat e ardhshme \u2013 argumenton Allison \u2013 nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm e mundshme, por ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb.<\/p>\n

50 vjet pas udh\u00ebtimit t\u00eb fsheht\u00eb, e ardhmja e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve ShBA-Kin\u00eb duket e zymt\u00eb. P\u00ebrderisa retorika anti-Kin\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar paksa, Administrata Biden ka zgjeruar sanksionet ekonomike dhe ka paralajm\u00ebruar bojkotimin n\u00eb nivel politik t\u00eb Loj\u00ebrave Olimpike q\u00eb mbahen k\u00ebt\u00eb vit n\u00eb Kin\u00eb. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, kinez\u00ebt besojn\u00eb se politika e p\u00ebrmbajtjes s\u00eb Kin\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb derivat i \u2018ankthit\u2019 amerikan t\u00eb r\u00ebnies relative dhe si e till\u00eb duhet t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtohet. Edhe pse republikan\u00ebt e demokrat\u00ebt n\u00eb ShBA nuk pajtohen pothuajse p\u00ebr asgj\u00eb, t\u00eb dy kampet politike theksojn\u00eb nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb \u2018maturuar\u2019 dragoin kinez. E nomenklatura aktuale n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, me nj\u00eb perceptim nacionalist e vet\u00ebbesim t\u00eb shtuar, ka brend\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb strategji p\u00ebr ngritjen e kapaciteteve ushtarake e zgjerimit t\u00eb ndikimit gjeopolitik n\u00eb rajone t\u00eb caktuara.<\/p>\n

Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet nd\u00ebrmjet ShBA-s\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebs n\u00eb nj\u00eb mas\u00eb jan\u00eb peng i pik\u00ebpamjes s\u00eb t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebve p\u00ebr jasht\u00ebzakonshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e tyre. Si ShBA-ja, nj\u00ebjt\u00eb edhe Kina, vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb se jan\u00eb trup\u00ebzim i nj\u00eb qytet\u00ebrimi unik n\u00eb histori dhe me ideale t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsis\u00eb universale. Nd\u00ebrsa ShBA-ja \u00ebsht\u00eb \u2018qyteti i ndritur mbi kod\u00ebr\u2019 q\u00eb ng\u00ebrthen n\u00eb vete vlera universalisht t\u00eb aplikueshme, Kina e percepton veten si Mbret\u00ebria e Mesit, nj\u00eb trash\u00ebgimi mij\u00ebravje\u00e7are perandorake. P\u00ebrderisa ShBA-ja mendon se Kina ka nj\u00eb agjend\u00eb t\u00eb fshehur p\u00ebr zhvendosjen e tyre jasht\u00eb Azis\u00eb dhe Kina shqet\u00ebsohet p\u00ebr politik\u00ebn e frenimit t\u00eb Washingtonit, tensioni strategjik do t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzohet. Ky tension leht\u00ebsisht mund t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb duel t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb kur mungon elasticiteti diplomatik apo kur marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnia kthehet n\u00eb nj\u00eb loj\u00eb me shumatore zero.<\/p>\n

Por, kurthi i Tukididit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb profeci vet\u00ebp\u00ebrmbush\u00ebse dhe natyrisht nuk mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb zbatim mekanik t\u00eb paraleleve historike. Kurthi i Tukididit mund t\u00eb shmanget me nd\u00ebrtimin e nj\u00eb sistemi gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebs t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt sino-amerikan q\u00eb synon zgjidhjen e sfidave me interes global. E gjinia njer\u00ebzore s\u2019\u00ebsht\u00eb se l\u00ebngon nga mungesa e problemeve globale.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Kuadri i marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve Amerik\u00eb-Kin\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb padyshim p\u00ebrcaktues i s\u00eb ardhmes s\u00eb rendit e paqes bot\u00ebrore. Viteve t\u00eb fundit, rivaliteti nd\u00ebrmjet Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs dhe Kin\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb intensifikuar duksh\u00ebm. Nj\u00eb mori tensionesh strategjike, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb mosmarr\u00ebveshjet tregtare, e ardhmja e Tajvanit, vizionet e ndryshme p\u00ebr detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore e deri tek gara […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":317,"featured_media":8392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[999,1381],"ppma_author":[329],"class_list":["post-6029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-shba","tag-tukididi"],"authors":[{"term_id":329,"user_id":317,"is_guest":0,"slug":"mirlind-behluli","display_name":"Mirlind Behluli","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/mirlindi-339x215-1.png","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/mirlindi-339x215-1.png"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Behluli","first_name":"Mirlind","description":"Mirlind Behluli \u00ebsht\u00eb studiues i marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnies nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare dhe shkencave politike. Q\u00eb disa vite \u00ebsht\u00eb pjes\u00eb e Institutit EdGuard si hulumtues n\u00eb politikat e arsimit e s\u00eb fundmi edhe ligj\u00ebrues n\u00eb Kolegjin Universum n\u00eb Departamentin e Shkenc\u00ebs Politike dhe Juridikut. Momentalisht \u00ebsht\u00eb kandidat p\u00ebr doktoratur\u00eb p\u00ebr marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb Universitetin Istanbul Medeniyet n\u00eb Turqi."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/317"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6029"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6029\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8525,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6029\/revisions\/8525"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6029"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=6029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}