{"id":8175,"date":"2021-03-09T09:45:17","date_gmt":"2021-03-09T07:45:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=8175"},"modified":"2024-10-10T09:48:32","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T07:48:32","slug":"putini-dhe-erdogani-kane-formuar-nje-vellazeri-te-fuqise-se-forte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/putini-dhe-erdogani-kane-formuar-nje-vellazeri-te-fuqise-se-forte\/","title":{"rendered":"Putini dhe Erdogani kan\u00eb formuar nj\u00eb v\u00ebllaz\u00ebri t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb s\u00eb fort\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rusia ka akuzuar NATO-n se po p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbys\u00eb Vladimir Putin-in. Ajo e ka portretizuar si agjent t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs Alexei Navalny-n, sfiduesin m\u00eb t\u00eb spikatur t\u00eb Vladimir Putin-it. E ka quajtur \u201cpartner t\u00eb pabes\u00eb\u201d Bashkimin Europian, i cili e d\u00ebnoi helmimin dhe m\u00eb pas burgosjen e Navalny-t. Sidoqoft\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb an\u00ebtare e NATO-s dhe kandidate p\u00ebr hyrje n\u00eb BE, me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn Z. Putin \u00ebsht\u00eb i lumtur: Turqia. Presidenti i Turqis\u00eb, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, nuk ka b\u00ebr\u00eb z\u00eb p\u00ebr keqtrajtimin e Z. Navalny apo arrestimet e mij\u00ebra protestuesve rus\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Heshtja e tij \u00ebsht\u00eb d\u00ebshmi e mir\u00ebkuptimit t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb zhvilluar mes dy lider\u00ebve autoritar\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie e pagjas\u00eb. Rivalitetet e thella historike ndajn\u00eb Rusin\u00eb dhe Turqin\u00eb, nd\u00ebrkaq interesat e tyre p\u00ebrplas\u00ebn n\u00eb shum\u00eb fusha, ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb dhunsh\u00ebm. Prap\u00ebseprap\u00eb, t\u00eb dy burrat lidhen p\u00ebrmes fuqis\u00eb s\u00eb fort\u00eb q\u00eb po riform\u00ebson politik\u00ebn rajonale dhe po paraqet probleme t\u00eb pak\u00ebndshme p\u00ebr aleat\u00ebt per\u00ebndimor\u00eb t\u00eb Turqis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historikisht, Rusia the Turqia kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb luft\u00ebra shum\u00eb her\u00eb, ndon\u00ebse jo q\u00ebkur t\u00eb dy perandorit\u00eb u transformuan nga revolucioni n\u00eb fund t\u00eb luft\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. Kolos\u00ebt me shtrirje kontinentale, jan\u00eb f\u00ebrkuar vazhdimisht me nj\u00ebri tjetrin n\u00eb fushat ku interesat e tyre p\u00ebrplas\u00ebn. P\u00ebr shembull, s\u00eb fundmi ato jan\u00eb grindur rreth luft\u00ebrave civile n\u00eb Libi dhe Siri. N\u00eb shtator u ballafaquan af\u00ebr sht\u00ebpis\u00eb n\u00eb Kaukazin Jugor, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn Rusia e sheh si oborr sht\u00ebpie. P\u00ebrderisa Turqia armatos dhe udh\u00ebzon Azerbajxhanin turqishtfol\u00ebs e mysliman, Rusia mb\u00ebshtet Armenin\u00eb e krishter\u00eb. Pat t\u00eb brengosur se konflikti rreth Nagorno-Karabakut, enklav\u00ebs s\u00eb armen\u00ebve etnik\u00eb p\u00ebrbrenda Azerbajxhanit, do t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndahej n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edhe pse dron\u00ebt e Turqis\u00eb shemb\u00ebn tanket ruse q\u00eb p\u00ebrdoreshin nga armen\u00ebt, Z. Putin lavd\u00ebroi Z. Erdogan si dikush me t\u00eb cilin mund t\u00eb b\u00ebnte biznes. \u201cT\u00eb punosh me k\u00ebso partneri nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm e k\u00ebndshme por gjithashtu e sigurt,\u201d i tha nj\u00eb audience ekspert\u00ebsh t\u00eb huaj n\u00eb Klubin e Diskutimit Valdai n\u00eb tetor. Nga ana e tij, z. Erdogan e p\u00ebrsh\u00ebndeti z. Putin duke testuar sistemin raketor S-400 q\u00eb Turqia e kishte bler\u00eb nga Rusia. N\u00eb n\u00ebntor ndal\u00ebn luftimet, duke r\u00ebn\u00eb dakord q\u00eb Rusia t\u00eb kishte prani ushtarake n\u00eb Nagorno-Karabak dhe Turqia t\u00eb konsolidonte nj\u00eb bastion ekonomik n\u00eb Kaukazin Jugor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Marr\u00ebveshja p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb prej shkundjeve m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha gjeopolitike q\u00eb prej p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs s\u00eb ftoht\u00eb, ku Rusia dhe Turqia ishin n\u00eb an\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta. Kjo gjithashtu p\u00ebrmban nj\u00eb mesazh rreth p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb s\u00eb fort\u00eb dhe realitetit t\u00eb bot\u00ebs shum\u00ebpolare. \u201cT\u00eb dyja e din\u00eb se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ekuilibri i forcave ajo q\u00eb ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi, por gatishm\u00ebria p\u00ebr t\u2019i p\u00ebrdorur,\u201d tha Andrey Kortunov, kryesues i K\u00ebshillit rus t\u00eb pun\u00ebve t\u00eb jashtme. Amerika mund t\u00eb kishte pasur ushtri superiore, por ngurrimi p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb Siri la p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebse Rusin\u00eb dhe Turqin\u00eb p\u00ebr rajonin e shkat\u00ebrruar nga lufta. Dhe gati pas 30 viteve t\u00eb bisedimeve t\u00eb pafrytshme rreth Nagorno-Karabakut, ishte mb\u00ebshtetja ushtarake e Turqis\u00eb dhe pajtimi i Rusis\u00eb q\u00eb ndihmuan Azerbajxhanit t\u00eb rimerrte territor dhe t\u00eb riorganizonte nj\u00eb prej konflikteve m\u00eb t\u00eb pazgjidhshme n\u00eb Kaukaz.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr z. Putin, ky qe demonstrim i nj\u00eb rendi t\u00eb ri shum\u00ebpolar, di\u00e7ka p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ka avokuar q\u00eb m\u00eb 2007, kur n\u00eb Konferenc\u00ebn e Siguris\u00eb n\u00eb Mynih pati tjet\u00ebr mendim prej atij t\u00eb rendit pas luft\u00ebs s\u00eb ftoht\u00eb me \u201cnj\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb vetme t\u00eb autoritetit, nj\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb forc\u00ebs, nj\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb vendimmarrjes.\u201d Misioni i Rusis\u00eb ishte kufizimi i hegjemonis\u00eb s\u00eb re t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb Nagorno-Karabak nuk ishte hera e par\u00eb q\u00eb Rusia kishte bashk\u00ebpunuar me Turqin\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb minimizuar ndikimin e fuqive per\u00ebndimore. Menj\u00ebher\u00eb pas revolucionit Bolshevik dhe shembjes s\u00eb perandoris\u00eb Otomane, Kemal Ataturku e pa Leninin p\u00ebr pak koh\u00eb si aleat kund\u00ebr Per\u00ebndimit imperial dhe bolshevik\u00ebt e shihnin Turqin\u00eb si bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjet e tyre p\u00ebr dominim bot\u00ebror. Ata furnizuan Turqin\u00eb me arm\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar grek\u00ebt dhe britanik\u00ebt, dhe Turqit lejuan bolshevik\u00ebt t\u00eb shtijn\u00eb n\u00eb kontroll fushat e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb Azerbaijxhan dhe t\u00eb vendosin pushtetin e tyre n\u00eb Kaukazin Jugor. Marr\u00ebveshja mes Ataturkut dhe Leninit e vitit 1921, q\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoi kufirin verilindor t\u00eb Turqis\u00eb dhe kufizoi pranin\u00eb e saj n\u00eb Kaukazin Jugor, q\u00ebndron edhe sot.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lufta e vitit t\u00eb fundit p\u00ebr Nagorno-Karabakun ishte figur\u00eb e pasqyruar e asaj marr\u00ebveshjeje. Tash \u00ebsht\u00eb z. Putin ai q\u00eb po i vardiset Turqis\u00eb n\u00eb konfrontimin e tij me Per\u00ebndimin, duke shpresuar ta p\u00ebrdor\u00eb si pyk\u00eb n\u00eb NATO, nd\u00ebrsa z. Erdogan po projekton Turqin\u00eb n\u00eb ish sferat e veta t\u00eb influenc\u00ebs. Ngroht\u00ebsia \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe m\u00eb e jasht\u00ebzakonshme, meq\u00eb Turqia \u00ebsht\u00eb vendi i vet\u00ebm i NATO-s q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrplasur ushtarakisht me Rusin\u00eb n\u00eb vitet e fundit. M\u00eb 2015, Turqia rr\u00ebzoi nj\u00eb aeroplan ushtarak rus q\u00eb nuk kishte respektuar hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn e saj ajrore pas fluturimit mbi Siri.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusia u p\u00ebrgjigj me vendosje t\u00eb sanksioneve ndaj produkteve turke, duke urdh\u00ebruar turist\u00ebt rus\u00eb t\u00eb rrin\u00eb larg plazheve turke dhe duke bombarduar luft\u00ebtar\u00ebt turkmen\u00eb n\u00eb Sirin\u00eb veriore. Turqia e pa t\u00eb pamundshme t\u00eb ndiqte Shtetin Islamik (IS) dhe militant\u00ebt e Partis\u00eb s\u00eb Pun\u00ebs s\u00eb Kurdistanit (PKK) n\u00eb an\u00ebn siriane t\u00eb kufirit. P\u00ebr t\u2019ia p\u00ebrkujtuar, zyrtar\u00ebt rus\u00eb dhe mediat akuzuan an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e familjes s\u00eb Erdoganit se kishin bler\u00eb naft\u00eb nga IS. Si\u00e7 tha m\u00eb von\u00eb nj\u00eb zyrtar turk, \u201cNe luajt\u00ebm ashp\u00ebr, ata edhe m\u00eb ashp\u00ebr.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Shkrirja<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb ndryshoi? Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebina filloi t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsohej n\u00eb ver\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2016, kur z. Putin bashk\u00ebndjeu me presidentin turk pas grushtetit t\u00eb d\u00ebshtuar n\u00eb Turqi ku u vran\u00eb 270 njer\u00ebz. \u201cPutini thirri menj\u00ebher\u00eb,\u201d thot\u00eb zyrtari turk. \u201cJu p\u00eblqeu a jo, duke u solidarizuar, tipi u tregua shum\u00eb i men\u00e7ur.\u201d Shumica e lider\u00ebve per\u00ebndimor\u00eb qen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ngadalsh\u00ebm n\u00eb shprehjen e solidaritetit. Z. Erdogan udh\u00ebtoi p\u00ebr n\u00eb Rusi, ku n\u00ebnshkroi marr\u00ebveshjen p\u00ebr gazsjell\u00ebsin dhe u pajtua t\u00eb rifillonte pun\u00ebn n\u00eb implantin b\u00ebrthamor n\u00eb Turqin\u00eb jugore. T\u00eb dy pilot\u00ebt q\u00eb kishin rr\u00ebzuar aeroplanin rus m\u00eb 2015 p\u00ebrfunduan n\u00eb burg, t\u00eb akuzuar p\u00ebr p\u00ebrfshirje n\u00eb grushtet.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cKriza e aeroplan\u00ebve ushtrak\u00eb qe pik\u00eb kthese n\u00eb raportin e Turqis\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb,\u201d thot\u00eb Emre Ersen, ekspert p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb n\u00eb Universitetin e Marmaras n\u00eb Stamboll. \u201cPasi q\u00eb NATO nuk u ngut t\u00eb ndihmonte Turqin\u00eb, kjo e kuptoi se e vetmja m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb avancuar interesat e saj n\u00eb Siri ishte marr\u00ebveshja me Rusin\u00eb. Kjo marr\u00ebveshje ende q\u00ebndron.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Q\u00eb prej 2016, z. Erdogan ka mbajtur m\u00eb shum\u00eb takime me z. Putin se me ndonj\u00eb lider tjet\u00ebr. Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb kthyer nga kund\u00ebrshtar i Turqis\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn civile n\u00eb Siri, n\u00eb partnerin e saj m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm aty. Turqia ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb kryej\u00eb operacione ushtarake n\u00eb Sirin\u00eb veriore vet\u00ebm me p\u00eblqimin e Rusis\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, mediat ruse kan\u00eb dep\u00ebrtuar te publiku turk. Rrethi i brendsh\u00ebm i z. Erdogan tash p\u00ebrfshin nj\u00eb grup \u201ceuroazianist\u00ebsh\u201d, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb hapur p\u00ebr bashk\u00ebpunim me Rusin\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebn dhe jan\u00eb armiq\u00ebsor ndaj Europ\u00ebs dhe NATO-s. Qeveria e Turqis\u00eb dhe makina e saj e propagand\u00ebs tash zmadhojn\u00eb tensionin me Per\u00ebndimin, po aq sa kan\u00eb prirje t\u00eb minimizojn\u00eb tensionin me Rusin\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Deri m\u00eb tash, vendimi p\u00ebr blerjen e sistemit mbrojt\u00ebs S-400 \u00ebsht\u00eb elementi m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm I marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnies s\u00eb re. Para dy vitesh, z. Erdogan e quajti blerjen \u201cmarr\u00ebveshjen m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme n\u00eb historin\u00eb ton\u00eb.\u201d Sistemi nuk ka kushtuar pak. \u00c7mimi q\u00eb ka paguar Turqia \u00ebsht\u00eb $2.5 miliard\u00eb p\u00ebr pajisje, p\u00ebrjashtim nga programi amerikan F-35 dhe humbjet shoq\u00ebruese prej $9.5 miliard\u00eb n\u00eb kontrata p\u00ebr industrin\u00eb turke t\u00eb armatimit. N\u00eb dhjetor, Amerika vuri sanksione shtes\u00eb ndaj agjencis\u00eb turke t\u00eb prokurimit t\u00eb mbrojtjes.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Erdogan mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb qen\u00eb i d\u00ebshp\u00ebruar t\u00eb blej\u00eb sistem arm\u00ebsh q\u00eb t\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballte k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin q\u00eb u shfaq n\u00eb grushtetin e vitit 2016, kur vet\u00eb F-16-shat e Turqis\u00eb bombarduan pallatin e tij. Shum\u00eb prej p\u00ebrkrah\u00ebsve t\u00eb tij besojn\u00eb, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pabesueshme, se Amerika kishte gisht n\u00eb grushtet. N\u00eb shkurt, ministri i tij i brendsh\u00ebm akuzoi Amerik\u00ebn p\u00ebr orkestrim t\u00eb dhun\u00ebs. Kishte gjithashtu thash\u00ebth\u00ebme se sh\u00ebrbimi ushtarak rus i inteligjenc\u00ebs kishte njoftuar z .Erdogan p\u00ebr kanosjen serioze ndaj jet\u00ebs s\u00eb tij.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    N\u00eb vakumin amerikan<\/b><\/p>\n

    N\u00eb Siri, Turqia pa se nuk kishin zgjidhje tjet\u00ebr pos t\u00eb b\u00ebrit biznes me Rusin\u00eb, p\u00ebrderisa Amerika hezitoi t\u00eb ballafaqohej me regjimin, duke nxjerr\u00eb vija t\u00eb kuqe por duke d\u00ebshtuar t\u00eb vepronte me vendosm\u00ebri. Turqia gjithashtu \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00ebrbuar ndaj vendimit t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb transferuar te kurd\u00ebt luft\u00ebn n\u00eb terren kund\u00ebr IS-s\u00eb. Zyrtar\u00ebt turq thon\u00eb se Amerika jo vet\u00ebm lejoi Rusin\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhej nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsuesi kryesor i pushtetit n\u00eb Siri, por edhe tjet\u00ebrsoi Turqin\u00eb duke u b\u00ebr\u00eb bashk\u00eb me deg\u00ebn lokale t\u00eb PKK-s\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Me raste, p\u00ebrplasjet mes Turqis\u00eb dhe Rusis\u00eb ngjajn\u00eb ende, sikurse para nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb, kur karvani turk u godit nga aeroplan\u00ebt rus\u00eb n\u00eb sh\u00ebrbim t\u00eb ushtris\u00eb siriane. Sulmi la t\u00eb vdekur s\u00eb paku 36 ushtar\u00eb turq. Prap\u00ebseprap\u00eb, Turqia qe e kujdesshme t\u00eb mos ballafaqohej kok\u00eb m\u00eb kok\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb dhe faj\u00ebsoi presidentin sirian Bashar al-Assad p\u00ebr sulmin.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Sa i p\u00ebrket z. Putin, as ai nuk qe qejfprish\u00ebs, dhe lejoi Turqin\u00eb t\u00eb hakmerrej dhe t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrronte pozicionet siriane me dron\u00eb luftarak\u00eb, p\u00ebrderisa aeroplan\u00ebt rus\u00eb q\u00ebndronin n\u00eb tok\u00eb. P\u00ebr z. Putin, p\u00ebrdorimi i Turqis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb d\u00ebmtuar NATO-n nga brenda \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm se sa t\u00eb ndihmuarit e z. Assad n\u00eb Siri. Motivi i njejt\u00eb shpjegon pjes\u00ebrisht pranimin e heshtur t\u00eb luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Azerbajxhanit n\u00eb Nagorno-Karabak, kur Turqia ndihmonte azer\u00ebt. Z. Putin ka arritur t\u00eb konvertoj\u00eb rolin e Rusis\u00eb si nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsuese duke vendosur trupat ushtarake n\u00eb terren, n\u00eb form\u00eb t\u00eb paq\u00ebruajt\u00ebsve, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbik\u00ebqyrur marr\u00ebveshjen e re. Turqia ka fituar edhe prestigj n\u00eb rajon, edhe premtim p\u00ebr nj\u00eb korridor transporti p\u00ebr n\u00eb Baku p\u00ebrmes Armenis\u00eb, e cila mund t\u00eb bashkoj\u00eb forcat me Nism\u00ebn Rrip dhe Rrug\u00eb (BRI) t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs. Per\u00ebndimi nuk fitoi asgj\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tregtia dhe investimet luajt\u00ebn rol gjithashtu n\u00eb lidhjen e Turqis\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb. Meq\u00eb eksportet ruse t\u00eb energjis\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e tregtis\u00eb mes tyre, Turqia ka nj\u00eb deficit prej $13.4 miliard\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb. \u201cMegjithat\u00eb, nuk duhet t\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsojm\u00eb lidhjet e biznesit,\u201d thot\u00eb Behlul Ozkan nga Universiteti i Marmaras\u00eb. \u201cFirmat turke t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmit t\u00eb af\u00ebrta me partin\u00eb e Erdoganit, po fitojn\u00eb tendera t\u00eb majm\u00eb.\u201d Mes viteve 2010-2019, Rusia ishte p\u00ebr s\u00eb largu tregu m\u00eb i madh p\u00ebr kontraktor\u00ebt turq, me projekte n\u00eb vler\u00eb mbi $40 miliard\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

    P\u00ebkrahja e nd\u00ebrsjell\u00eb<\/b><\/p>\n

    Ato lidhje kan\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi posa\u00e7\u00ebrisht ngase t\u00eb dy lider\u00ebt po drejtojn\u00eb ekonomi t\u00eb d\u00ebrrmuara. N\u00eb Turqi, inflacioni dhe papun\u00ebsia kan\u00eb mbetur n\u00eb numra dyshifror\u00eb q\u00eb prej 2018. N\u00eb m\u00eb pak se kat\u00ebr vite, lira turke ka humbur gjysm\u00ebn e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb saj t\u00eb dollarit. Ekonomia stagnante e Rusis\u00eb dhe r\u00ebnia gjasht\u00ebvje\u00e7are n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura, ka ndezur pak\u00ebnaq\u00ebsi t\u00eb gjera ndaj Kremlinit. Ashtu si z. Putin, edhe z. Erdogan kan\u00eb rip\u00ebrqafuar iden\u00eb se vendet e tyre jan\u00eb \u201ck\u00ebshtjella t\u00eb rrethuara\u201d nga armiqt\u00eb, dhe k\u00ebshtu zhvilluan agresion jasht\u00eb vendit n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb shmangin v\u00ebmendjen nga telashet n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u00c7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu te trendet m\u00eb t\u00eb gjera. Turqia dhe Rusia ndajn\u00eb nj\u00eb ndjesi t\u00eb zem\u00ebrimit nga t\u00eb qenit t\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtuar nga Europa. P\u00ebrpjekjet e Turqis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019iu bashkuar BE-s\u00eb jan\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuar p\u00ebr gati 6 dekada. S\u2019do mend se p\u00ebr Turqin\u00eb e sotme luftarake dhe autoritare, nuk ka vend n\u00eb klub. Por, i till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb disponimi n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, dhe aq frika nga nj\u00eb komb mysliman 80 milion\u00ebsh, saq\u00eb Turqia me gjas\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb pranohej, as edhe po t\u00eb lul\u00ebzonte si demokraci.<\/span><\/p>\n

    T\u00eb dy autokrat\u00ebt ndajn\u00eb nostalgjin\u00eb p\u00ebr perandorin\u00eb. Z. Putin paraqitet si patriot i cili po rind\u00ebrton pjes\u00eb t\u00eb perandoris\u00eb sovjetike, dhe i cili ka b\u00ebr\u00eb luft\u00eb kund\u00ebr Gjeorgjis\u00eb dhe Ukrain\u00ebs. Ai p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb n\u00ebn kontroll t\u00eb rrept\u00eb ato q\u00eb i sheh si shtete kliente, m\u00eb s\u00eb fundmi Bellorusin\u00eb dhe Armenin\u00eb. Z. Erdogan e ka v\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn otomane t\u00eb vendit t\u00eb tij n\u00eb sh\u00ebrbim t\u00eb nj\u00eb politike t\u00eb jashtme m\u00eb agresive, duke b\u00ebr\u00eb zhurm\u00eb rreth rivendosj\u00ebs s\u00eb dominimit turk mbi ishujt grek n\u00eb af\u00ebrsi t\u00eb brigjeve t\u00eb Egjeut, dhe duke konfrontuar Greqin\u00eb, Qipron dhe Franc\u00ebn n\u00eb Mesdheun lindor t\u00eb pasur me gaz. Ai e sheh veten si z\u00eb t\u00eb bot\u00ebs myslimane.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cErdogani ka marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie t\u00eb till\u00eb personale me Putin-in, q\u00eb nuk i ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb lider\u00eb per\u00ebndimor\u00eb,\u201d thot\u00eb z. Ersen. \u201cT\u00eb dy jan\u00eb burra t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebt nuk sfidohen n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi, dhe secili e di se tjetri ka fuqin\u00eb t\u00eb zbatoj\u00eb vendimet e arrira.\u201d Z. Erdogan e di q\u00eb ujdit\u00eb me Amerik\u00ebn rrezikojn\u00eb t\u00eb dalin jasht\u00eb binar\u00ebve nga burokracit\u00eb e pavarura, opinioni publik dhe Kongresi. Me z. Putin, ai nuk ka nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb brengos\u00ebt p\u00ebr gj\u00ebra t\u00eb tilla.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Erdogan ka qen\u00eb gjithashtu student i v\u00ebmendsh\u00ebm i p\u00ebrqafimit t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme si fakt t\u00eb kryer nga z. Putin. Rusia i p\u00ebrgjaku hund\u00ebn Turqis\u00eb n\u00eb Siri dhe fitoi territor t\u00eb vlefsh\u00ebm n\u00eb veri t\u00eb saj duke aneksuar Krimen\u00eb. \u201cErdogan kuptoi vler\u00ebn e fuqis\u00eb s\u00eb fort\u00eb,\u201d thot\u00eb Suat Kiniklioglu nga Instituti gjerman p\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtje nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare dhe t\u00eb siguris\u00eb. Pas Krimes\u00eb, lideri turk kuptoi se agresioni jo gjithmon\u00eb nd\u00ebshkohert. \u201cAnkaraja sheh dob\u00ebsi, mosmarr\u00ebveshje, pavendosm\u00ebri dhe konfuzion n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim, dhe k\u00ebt\u00eb e sheh si mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb n\u00eb fqinj\u00ebrin\u00eb e saj,\u201d thot\u00eb z. Kinikliouglu. Z. Erdogan ka filluar t\u00eb kopjoj\u00eb nga fletorja e z. Putin. Rusia d\u00ebrgoi \u201cnjer\u00ebz t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl t\u00eb gjelb\u00ebr\u201d dhe mercenar\u00eb n\u00eb Krime, Donbas dhe Libi. Turqia d\u00ebrgoi qindra mercenar\u00eb sirian\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019iu bashkuar luftimeve n\u00eb Libi, e pastaj n\u00eb Azerbajxhan, me gjas\u00eb p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb kompanie private t\u00eb sigurimeve. Rusia p\u00ebrdor gazin p\u00ebr t\u00eb ushtruar pushtet mbi qeverit\u00eb europiane. Turqia p\u00ebrdor imigrant\u00ebt dhe refugjat\u00ebt.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Natyrisht se ka dallime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha mes dy burrave dhe vendeve t\u00eb tyre. Pas grushtetit kushtetues q\u00eb hoqi qafe kufizimet mbi mandatin e tij presidencial, z. Putin ka l\u00ebvizur m\u00eb af\u00ebr diktatur\u00ebs, edhe pse zem\u00ebrimi p\u00ebr burgosjen e z. Navalny mund t\u2019ia dob\u00ebsoj\u00eb fuqin\u00eb. Pushteti i z. Erdogan \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak i ngulitur. Konglomeratet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb Turqis\u00eb drejtohen nga an\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb klas\u00ebs shekullare, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt e pranojn\u00eb presidentin, por nuk e duan. Z. Erdogan ka mbyllur n\u00eb qeli shum\u00eb prej kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebve, ka kastruar mediat, dhe ka sht\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dor\u00eb gjykatat, por ende duhet t\u00eb merret me zgjedhjet e kontestuara. Mb\u00ebshtetja p\u00ebr partin\u00eb e tij ka r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb sondazhe. N\u00eb zgjedhjet lokale t\u00eb para dy viteve, ajo humbi kontrollin e Stambollit, motorit ekonomik t\u00eb Turqis\u00eb, si dhe kryeqytetit Ankaras\u00eb.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      Rroft\u00eb diferenca<\/b><\/p>\n

      Rusia dhe Turqia jan\u00eb larg s\u00eb q\u00ebni dhe mund t\u00eb mos krijojn\u00eb kurr\u00eb aleanc\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb. \u201cNuk po flasim p\u00ebr partneritet strategjik,\u201d thot\u00eb Onur Isci, drejtues i Qendr\u00ebs p\u00ebr studime ruse n\u00eb Universitetin e Bilkentit. \u201cNuk mendoj se Turqia ka luksin q\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikoj\u00eb shembjen e t\u00ebr\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnies institucionale me Per\u00ebndimin.\u201d Ndon\u00ebse t\u00eb dy vendet kan\u00eb bashk\u00eboperuar n\u00eb Siri, ato mbesin n\u00eb an\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta t\u00eb luft\u00ebs. E njejta vlen p\u00ebr Libin\u00eb dhe konfliktin n\u00eb Nagorno-Karabak.<\/span><\/p>\n

      T\u00eb dy fuqit\u00eb kan\u00eb gjithashtu interesa gjer\u00ebsisht t\u00eb pap\u00ebrputhshme n\u00eb Gjeorgji dhe Ukrain\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat Turqia do t\u00eb donte t\u2019i shihte si an\u00ebtare t\u00eb NATO-s. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb absolutisht e papranueshme p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb, e cila ka b\u00ebr\u00eb luft\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019i mbaj\u00eb t\u00eb dy vendet larg Per\u00ebndimit. P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, edhe Gjeorgjia edhe Ukraina tash e shohin Turqin\u00eb si kund\u00ebrforc\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme kund\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb, rol t\u00eb cilin z. Erdogan ka qen\u00eb i lumtur ta eksploatoj\u00eb. Turqia ka fuqizuar marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnien e saj ekonomike dhe t\u00eb mbrojtjes me Ukrain\u00ebn. M\u00eb 2019, i shiti Ukrain\u00ebs 6 dron\u00eb luftarak\u00eb, q\u00eb ishte nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht blerja e par\u00eb e till\u00eb nga ana e ushtris\u00eb ukrainase. \u201cTurqia nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb Turqi e para 30 vitesh,\u201d thot\u00eb nj\u00eb zyrtar turk. \u201cKapacitetet tona ekonomike dhe t\u00eb mbrojtjes jan\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar. Nuk e shohim veten se po flasim me Rusin\u00eb prej nj\u00eb pozicioni t\u00eb dob\u00ebsis\u00eb.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

      Rusia dhe Turqia do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb pika t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta ku t\u00eb munden, thot\u00eb z. Ersen, por do ta ken\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb pajtojn\u00eb interesat e tyre, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Detin e Zi dhe Kaukaz, ku pozicionet turke vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrta me Per\u00ebndimin se sa me Rusin\u00eb. \u201cProblemet rajonale\u201d, thot\u00eb z. Ersen, \u201cjan\u00eb pik\u00eb e dob\u00ebt e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnies turko-ruse.\u201d Prospektet e tyre afatgjate divergjojn\u00eb, gjithashtu. Demografia e Turqis\u00eb dhe prospektet e saj p\u00ebr rritje ekonomike jan\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ndritshme. Popullata e saj po rritet; ajo e Rusis\u00eb po zvog\u00eblohet.<\/span><\/p>\n

      P\u00ebr momentin, Turqia \u00ebsht\u00eb vend i ndryr\u00eb. Ajo po largohet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb tep\u00ebr nga aleanca Per\u00ebndimore. Por, partneriteti i saj me Rusin\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i ri, i padefinuar qart\u00eb, dhe i kthyesh\u00ebm. Prej shum\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve q\u00eb t\u00ebrheqin v\u00ebmendjen e presidentit Joe Biden, ajo q\u00eb meriton t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb krye t\u00eb list\u00ebs, \u00ebsht\u00eb ndalja e rr\u00ebshqitjes s\u00eb Turqis\u00eb nga Per\u00ebndimi e n\u00eb krah\u00ebt e z. Putin.<\/span><\/p>\n

      ***<\/span><\/p>\n

      Artikulli origjinal n\u00eb <\/span>The Economist<\/span><\/a>, m\u00eb 23 shkurt 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

      ***<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      Ky artikull mb\u00ebshtetet nga “Sbunker” p\u00ebrmes projektit t\u00eb financuar nga Ambasada Amerikane. Mendimet e shprehura k\u00ebtu jan\u00eb t\u00eb autorit dhe jo medoemos pasqyrojn\u00eb q\u00ebndrimet e Departamentit t\u00eb Shtetit.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Rusia ka akuzuar NATO-n se po p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbys\u00eb Vladimir Putin-in. Ajo e ka portretizuar si agjent t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs Alexei Navalny-n, sfiduesin m\u00eb t\u00eb spikatur t\u00eb Vladimir Putin-it. E ka quajtur \u201cpartner t\u00eb pabes\u00eb\u201d Bashkimin Europian, i cili e d\u00ebnoi helmimin dhe m\u00eb pas burgosjen e Navalny-t. Sidoqoft\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb an\u00ebtare e NATO-s dhe kandidate […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":276,"featured_media":8141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1260],"ppma_author":[274],"class_list":["post-8175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-kremlinshah"],"authors":[{"term_id":274,"user_id":276,"is_guest":0,"slug":"kremlin-shah","display_name":"Kremlin Shah","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/kremlin-shah-black-and-white-v21475494795.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/kremlin-shah-black-and-white-v21475494795.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Shah","first_name":"Kremlin","description":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/276"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8175"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8175\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8176,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8175\/revisions\/8176"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8175"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=8175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}