{"id":8185,"date":"2021-04-23T10:37:43","date_gmt":"2021-04-23T08:37:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=8185"},"modified":"2024-10-10T10:39:48","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T08:39:48","slug":"rusia-ukraina-dhe-perendimi-si-te-zgjidhet-nje-problem-si-vladimiri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/analize\/rusia-ukraina-dhe-perendimi-si-te-zgjidhet-nje-problem-si-vladimiri\/","title":{"rendered":"Rusia, Ukraina dhe Per\u00ebndimi: si t\u00eb zgjidhet nj\u00eb problem si Vladimiri?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vladimir Putin-i po k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon s\u00ebrish Ukrain\u00ebn. Deri m\u00eb tash, Per\u00ebndimi nuk ka gjetur nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb bashkuar dhe t\u00eb efektshme p\u00ebr t\u2019u marr\u00eb me k\u00ebt\u00eb dhe sfidat tjera q\u00eb paraqet Rusia.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

N\u00eb jav\u00ebt e fundit luftimet jan\u00eb intensifikuar n\u00eb rajonin e Donbasit n\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn lindore. Humbjet n\u00eb njer\u00ebz nga ana e Ukrain\u00ebs jan\u00eb shtuar p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb vij\u00ebs s\u00eb kontaktit mes territorit t\u00eb kontrolluar nga qeveria e Ukrain\u00ebs dhe pjes\u00ebve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb rajonit n\u00ebn kontrollin e regjimit kukull rus. Ashtu si para pushtimit m\u00eb 2014, forcat e rregullta ruse jan\u00eb n\u00eb gatishm\u00ebri af\u00ebr kufirit ukrainas. <\/span>Inteligjenca e burimeve t\u00eb hapura<\/span><\/a> tregon se disa nj\u00ebsi jan\u00eb ripozicionuar n\u00eb kufirin verilindor t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs nga bazat m\u00eb n\u00eb lindje. S\u00eb paku nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e Divizionit 76 t\u00eb Sulmeve Ajrore, q\u00eb mori pjes\u00eb n\u00eb pushtimin e Ukrain\u00ebs lindore m\u00eb 2014, ka l\u00ebvizur nga kufiri i Rusis\u00eb me shtetet Baltike n\u00eb Krime. Ministria e Mbrojtjes e Rusis\u00eb ka njoftuar gjithashtu se do t\u00eb zhvendos\u00eb anijet amfibe nga Deti Kaspik n\u00eb Detin e Zi, gjoja p\u00ebr st\u00ebrvitje. \u00c7far\u00eb po planifikon presidenti rus Vladimir Putin dhe \u00e7far\u00eb duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb BE-ja dhe NATO p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje?<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusia do t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb zgjedhjet parlamentare n\u00eb shtator. Nuk do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb lira apo t\u00eb drejta, por presidenti Vladimir Putin ka nevoj\u00eb q\u00eb rezultatet t\u00eb ken\u00eb nj\u00eb shk\u00eblqim besueshm\u00ebrie, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb shmang\u00eb protestat si ato pas zgjedhjeve parlamentare t\u00eb vitit 2011 t\u00eb manipuluara haptaz. Megjithat\u00eb, gj\u00ebrat nuk kan\u00eb rrjedhur aq mir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb, q\u00eb prej amendamentimit t\u00eb kushtetut\u00ebs ruse vitin e kaluar, q\u00eb do t\u2019i mund\u00ebsoj\u00eb t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb pushtetin deri m\u00eb 2036. Shkalla e vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb Rusi gjat\u00eb pandemis\u00eb COVID-19 ka qen\u00eb nd\u00ebr m\u00eb t\u00eb lartat n\u00eb bot\u00eb. Sipas FMN-s\u00eb, <\/span>parashikimet p\u00ebr rritje<\/span><\/a> n\u00eb disa vitet e ardhshme jan\u00eb anemike. Sondazhet tregojn\u00eb se m\u00eb shum\u00eb rus\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se Putin-i ka qen\u00eb i pasuksessh\u00ebm se sa i suksessh\u00ebm n\u00eb promovimin e zhvillimit ekonomik, rritjen e standardit t\u00eb jetes\u00ebs dhe luftimin e korrupsionit. Protestat kund\u00ebr mbajtjes s\u00eb liderit t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs dhe aktivistit kund\u00ebr korrupsionit, Alexei Navalny, ishin m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhat\u00eb q\u00eb prej nj\u00eb dhjet\u00ebvje\u00e7ari, dhe u mbajt\u00ebn gati n\u00eb 200 qytete gjithandej Rusis\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb Bellorusin\u00eb fqinje, presidenti Alyaksandr Lukashenka q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb pushtet q\u00eb prej vitit 1994, ka pasur telashe n\u00eb rivendosjen e kontrollit pas zgjedhjeve t\u00eb manipuluara n\u00eb gusht 2020 \u2013 nj\u00eb precendent i pad\u00ebshiruar p\u00ebr Putin-in. Mbase kjo shpjegon pse po i kthehet manovrave t\u00eb vjetra, duke shtypur opozit\u00ebn n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi dhe duke pjell\u00eb shp\u00ebrnqendrime jasht\u00eb vendit: ai shpreson t\u2019u mbyll\u00eb goj\u00ebn kritik\u00ebve, t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb nj\u00eb hov t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjes patriotike dhe t\u00eb siguroj\u00eb rezultatin e d\u00ebshiruar t\u00eb zgjedhjeve.<\/span><\/p>\n

Manovrat p\u00ebrreth Ukrain\u00ebs mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb p\u00ebr q\u00ebllim presionin psikologjik mbi presidentin Volodymyr Zelenskyy dhe n\u00ebnvizimin e brisht\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb vendit t\u00eb tij. Nj\u00eb analist ushtarak i pavarur rus <\/span>thot\u00eb<\/span><\/a> se deri n\u00eb mesin e majit toka n\u00eb Donbas do t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb e lag\u00ebsht p\u00ebr p\u00ebrparime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha ushtarake. Gjithashtu, ai sugjeron se helikopter\u00ebt dhe aeorplan\u00ebt e nevojsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr nj\u00eb sulm ajror ende nuk jan\u00eb shfaqur n\u00eb Krime \u2013 shenj\u00eb q\u00eb nuk do ket\u00eb sulm s\u00eb shpejti.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb rrethan\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, aksionet ushtarake t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb p\u00ebr q\u00ebllim par\u00ebsor turbullimin e vendeve per\u00ebndimore. Putin mund t\u00eb mendoj\u00eb se bisedimet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb re q\u00eb do t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb te shkat\u00ebrrimi i Ukrain\u00ebs (fraz\u00eb e p\u00ebrdorur si nga ministri i jasht\u00ebm rus, Sergei Lavrov dhe negociatori p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn i Putinit, Dmitri Kozak) do t\u00eb bindin Franc\u00ebn dhe Gjermanin\u00eb, nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsuesit e marr\u00ebveshjeve t\u00eb Minskut q\u00eb soll\u00ebn fundin e luftimeve t\u00eb ashp\u00ebra m\u00eb 2014 dhe 2015, q\u00eb ta nxisin Zelenskyy-n q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb l\u00ebshime. Zbatimi i marr\u00ebveshjeve ka ngecur, q\u00eb prej <\/span>p\u00ebrparimeve<\/span><\/a> t\u00eb b\u00ebra pas zgjedhjes s\u00eb Zelenskyy-t m\u00eb 2019. L\u00ebshimet mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb dh\u00ebnien e vetos lidhur me politik\u00ebn e jashtme ukrainase veglave t\u00eb Kremlinit n\u00eb Donbas, ose lejimin e forcave \u2018paq\u00ebruajt\u00ebse\u2019 ruse p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb vij\u00ebs s\u00eb kontaktik\u2013 si\u00e7 ka ngjar\u00eb s\u00eb fundmi mes forcave armene dhe azere p\u00ebrreth Nagorno-Karabakut. P\u00ebrvoja nga vendet tjera t\u00eb ish-Bashkimit Sovjetik tregon se paq\u00ebruajt\u00ebsit rus\u00eb rrall\u00ebher\u00eb jan\u00eb neutral\u00eb dhe v\u00ebshir\u00eb se shp\u00ebrngulen.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ndoshta k\u00ebt\u00eb ver\u00eb, Kremlini n\u00eb fakt po p\u00ebrgatitet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pushtim t\u00eb ri. Nj\u00eb tregues brengos\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb propaganda e shtuar ruse q\u00eb akuzon Ukrain\u00ebn se po p\u00ebrgatitet t\u00eb sulmoj\u00eb zonat \u2018separatiste\u2019 dhe se po planifikon \u2018gjenocid\u2019 ndaj rus\u00ebve etnik\u00eb. Dezinformimi i till\u00eb, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb gj\u00ebr\u00ebsisht m\u00eb 2014 kur Rusia sulmoi Ukrain\u00ebn, ka sa nj\u00eb q\u00ebllim t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm ashtu edhe t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm: shton mb\u00ebshtetjen popullore p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur \u2018bashkatdhetar\u00ebt\u2019 rus\u00eb; dhe i lejon qeverit\u00eb e huaja q\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb arsye p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos u prishur me Mosk\u00ebn, q\u00eb t\u00eb shtiren sikur vet\u00eb Ukraina i ka fajet p\u00ebr fatkeq\u00ebsit\u00eb e veta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pa marr\u00eb parasysh se cila tez\u00eb qendron, ShBA-t\u00eb dhe vendet tjera per\u00ebndimore duhet t\u00eb ken\u00eb dy q\u00ebllime: t\u00eb sigurojn\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mos ndihet e detyruar q\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb aksione t\u00eb pamatura parandaluese (duke r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb kurthin n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin ra Gjeorgjia m\u00eb 2008, kur u neutralizua shum\u00eb shpejt pas kund\u00ebrsulmit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb), dhe t\u00eb frenoj\u00eb Rusin\u00eb duke ndryshuar p\u00ebrllogaritjen e kostos dhe p\u00ebrfitimit n\u00eb favor t\u00eb mosp\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit. Shum\u00eb lider\u00eb per\u00ebndimor\u00eb kan\u00eb biseduar me Zelenskyy-n dhe lider\u00ebt tjer\u00eb ukrainas p\u00ebr t\u00eb ritheksuar p\u00ebrkrahjen e tyre p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn. Megjithat\u00eb, deri m\u00eb tash, nuk ka qart\u00ebsi t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr pasojat negative p\u00ebr regjimin e Putinit, n\u00eb rast t\u00eb hyrjes n\u00eb territorin ukrainas, as rreth asaj se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebnte Per\u00ebndimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar Ukrain\u00ebn q\u00eb t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb sovranitetin dhe integritetin e saj territorial.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka pak gjasa q\u00eb n\u00eb pritje t\u00eb sulmit rus Ukraina t\u00eb godas\u00eb e para n\u00ebse ndihet e sigurt se mund t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb pozicionet p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb vij\u00ebs s\u00eb kontaktit. Forcat e Ukrain\u00ebs jan\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb afta se sa ishin m\u00eb 2014, por vendet per\u00ebndimore duhet t\u00eb punojn\u00eb me to p\u00ebr t\u00eb identifikuar dhe mbushur zbraz\u00ebtirat n\u00eb kapacitetin e tyre mbrojt\u00ebs dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb ofruar trajnime ku \u00ebsht\u00eb nevoja. Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuar ka njoftuar se do t\u00eb formoj\u00eb nj\u00eb \u2018regjiment rojtar\u00ebsh\u2019 gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti p\u00ebr t\u00eb st\u00ebrvitur, k\u00ebshilluar dhe shoq\u00ebruar partner\u00ebt n\u00eb ambientet me rrezikshm\u00ebri t\u00eb lart\u00eb. <\/span>\u00cbsht\u00eb raportuar<\/span><\/a> se qeveria \u00ebsht\u00eb duke konsideruar q\u00eb ta d\u00ebrgoj\u00eb regjimentin s\u00eb pari n\u00eb Mozambik ose Somali; do t\u00eb kontribuonte m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb e zon\u00ebs euroatlantike sikur t\u00eb d\u00ebrgoheshin n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vendet per\u00ebndimore duhet t\u00eb tregojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahje politike p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn, pa inkurajuar pritje jorealiste. Qeverit\u00eb e NATO-s jan\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb ndara lidhur me p\u00ebrparimin e Ukrain\u00ebs drejt an\u00ebtar\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb NATO, pa korniz\u00eb kohore ose rrug\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb p\u00ebr ta arritur. N\u00eb vend se t\u00eb theksoj\u00eb pamund\u00ebsin\u00eb e vazhdueshme t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs q\u00eb t\u2019i bashkohet klubeve per\u00ebndimore, Zelenskyy duhet t\u00eb inkurajoj\u00eb sa m\u00eb shum\u00eb vende t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb dhe NATO-s q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur, q\u00eb n\u00eb muajt n\u00eb vazhdim t\u00eb mbajn\u00eb kontakte fizike ose virtuale t\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb lart\u00eb me autoritetet ukrainase dhe shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb civile, p\u00ebr t\u00eb shprehur brengat e tyre lidhur me gjendjen e krijuar.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin-i e di se Per\u00ebndimi nuk d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb futet n\u00eb luft\u00eb p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn; Per\u00ebndimi duhet q\u00eb t\u00eb tregoj\u00eb se do t\u00eb rris\u00eb koston e agresionit n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb tjera gjithashtu. BE-ja, MB-ja, ShBA-t\u00eb dhe p\u00ebrkah\u00ebsit e tjer\u00eb per\u00ebndimor\u00eb t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, duhet ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb n\u00eb kontaktet e tyre me autoritetet ruse se po punojn\u00eb n\u00eb paketa t\u00eb koordinuara t\u00eb sanksioneve q\u00eb mund t\u00eb vendosen menj\u00ebher\u00eb, n\u00eb rast t\u00eb kalimit t\u00eb s\u00ebrish\u00ebm t\u00eb kufirit nga forcat ruse. Sanksionet e reja duhet t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb p\u00ebrtej atyre t\u00eb vendosura m\u00eb 2014; ato e shkurajuan Putin-in nga <\/span>q\u00ebllimi i tij i pushtimit<\/span><\/a> t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs jugore dhe shnd\u00ebrrimit t\u00eb saj n\u00eb \u2018Novorossiya\u2019, por nuk mjaftuan p\u00ebr ta bindur q\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet nga lindja ose Krimea. K\u00ebt\u00eb her\u00eb, sanksionet duhet t\u00eb dizajnohen p\u00ebr t\u2019i shkaktuar d\u00ebme serioze sektor\u00ebve t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat mb\u00ebshtetet regjimi i Putin-it, posa\u00e7\u00ebrisht industris\u00eb s\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb gazit, dhe qasjes s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb sistemin financiar nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, si dhe mbi nj\u00eb mori figurash elitare ruse q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb cak deri m\u00eb tash.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gjat\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitjes dhe avokimit p\u00ebr sanksione, ShBA-t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb ndjeshme ndaj faktit se partner\u00ebt e tyre evropian\u00eb rrezikojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb ekonomikisht sesa ajo \u2013 m\u00eb 2019, tregtia e BE-s\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb ishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb se n\u00ebnt\u00eb her\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe se tregtia e ShBA-ve me Rusin\u00eb. Evropian\u00ebt jan\u00eb gjithashtu t\u00eb varur nga Rusia p\u00ebr gati nj\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebn e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit t\u00eb tyre. Sanksionet duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb ashpra p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasur efekt frenues, por gjithashtu t\u00eb shitshme p\u00ebr politikan\u00ebt n\u00eb vendet me ekonomi t\u00eb d\u00ebmtuara nga efektet e pandemis\u00eb; ShBA-t\u00eb dhe vendet tjera do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb gjejn\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb tjera p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar vendet e goditura m\u00eb s\u00eb r\u00ebndi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gazsjell\u00ebsi Nord Stream 2 q\u00eb vjen nga Rusia n\u00eb Gjermani p\u00ebrmes Detit Baltik, duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb krye t\u00eb list\u00ebs s\u00eb sanksioneve. \u00cbsht\u00eb gati n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundim, por n\u00ebse b\u00ebhet funksional, p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr sanksioneve t\u00eb m\u00ebhershme amerikane ndaj firmave t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb nd\u00ebrtim, do t\u00eb jet\u00eb fitore e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr Putin-in. Kjo do t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ante Gjermanin\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00ebr\u00ebn an\u00eb dhe ShBA-t\u00eb, Polonin\u00eb dhe shtetet baltike n\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, dhe do t\u2019i mund\u00ebsonte Rusis\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mbyll\u00eb gazsjell\u00ebsit e tanish\u00ebm q\u00eb kalojn\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr Ukrain\u00eb. Gjithashtu, do ta zgjaste pafund\u00ebsisht var\u00ebsin\u00eb e tep\u00ebrt energjetike t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs n\u00eb Rusin\u00eb. Koordinatori i Bashk\u00ebpunimit Transatlantik n\u00eb Ministrin\u00eb e Jashtme t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb dhe ish-deputeti i Bundestagut, Peter Beyer, k\u00ebrkoi nj\u00eb moratorium p\u00ebr vazhdimin e nd\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb Nord Stream 2 \u2013 nj\u00eb hap i mir\u00eb, megjith\u00ebse prapakthim i dhimbsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr qeverin\u00eb gjermane.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr Per\u00ebndimin, siguria e Ukrain\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb urgjentja por assesi e vetmja sfid\u00eb q\u00eb lidhet me Rusin\u00eb. Pas 20 vitesh me Putin-in, vendet per\u00ebndimore ende nuk kan\u00eb sajuar nj\u00eb strategji gjithp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebse p\u00ebr t\u2019i b\u00ebr\u00eb ball\u00eb aft\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb ata q\u00eb i sheh si kund\u00ebrshtar\u00eb. Po aq e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme sa mb\u00ebshtetja e Ukrain\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigjja ndaj p\u00ebrpjekjeve ruse p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrzier n\u00eb sistemet demokratike liberale. M\u00eb 2016 dhe 2020 n\u00eb SHBA, dhe m\u00eb 2017 n\u00eb Franc\u00eb, Kremlini tregoi se \u00ebsht\u00eb i aft\u00eb dhe i gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyj\u00eb n\u00eb zgjedhje. Do t\u00eb ishte naive t\u00eb mendohet se k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi ka ikur. Gjermania do t\u00eb organizoj\u00eb zgjedhjet parlamentare n\u00eb shtator 2021; raundi i par\u00eb i zgjedhjeve presidenciale n\u00eb Franc\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb prill 2022. Fuqit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore duhet t\u00eb ndajn\u00eb informacione dhe praktika t\u00eb mira p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar dezinformimin dhe manipulimin e votuesve dhe t\u00eb identifikojn\u00eb, ekspozojn\u00eb, dhe ku \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur, t\u00eb ndjekin penalisht agjent\u00ebt rus\u00eb me ndikim n\u00eb sistemet e tyre politike.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vendet per\u00ebndimore duhet gjithashtu t\u00eb sigurohen q\u00eb forcat e tyre t\u00eb armatosura t\u00eb jen\u00eb adekuate p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar \u00e7far\u00ebdo p\u00ebrpjekje ruse p\u00ebr t\u2019i frik\u00ebsuar dhe shtr\u00ebnguar. Programi p\u00ebr modernizimin ushtarak i Putin-it ka arritur kulmin e tij dhe buxheti p\u00ebr mbrojtje i Rusis\u00eb m\u00eb 2019 ishte rreth 10 p\u00ebrqind m\u00eb pak se m\u00eb 2016, por ende p\u00ebrb\u00ebn gati 4 p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb BPV-s\u00eb, krahasuar me mesataren e NATO-s (p\u00ebrjashto ShBA-t\u00eb) prej 1.7 p\u00ebrqind. Forcat e armatosura t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb jan\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb pajisura dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb afta se n\u00eb koh\u00ebn kur mposht\u00ebn Gjeorgjin\u00eb m\u00eb 2008. \u2018Rishikimi i integruar i siguris\u00eb, mbrojtjes, zhvillimit dhe politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme\u2019 i MB-s\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruan Rusin\u00eb si \u201ck\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin m\u00eb serioz ndaj siguris\u00eb ton\u00eb\u201d \u2013 v\u00ebshtrim mbase i p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt me shum\u00eb vende t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Qendrore dhe Veriore. N\u00eb vitet e fundit, Putin-i ka v\u00ebn\u00eb theks t\u00eb posa\u00e7\u00ebm mbi arm\u00ebt e reja b\u00ebrthamore (p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb raketat e telekomunduara b\u00ebrthamore) q\u00eb po zhvillon Rusia \u2013 arm\u00eb t\u00eb cilat nuk b\u00ebjn\u00eb shum\u00eb pun\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb, por q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr t\u00eb frik\u00ebsuar kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebt e mundsh\u00ebm. P\u00ebr ta mbajtur n\u00eb distanc\u00eb, NATO-s i duhen kund\u00ebrsulme t\u00eb besueshme konvencionale dhe b\u00ebrthamore. Gjithashtu, i duhet nj\u00eb dialog me Rusin\u00eb q\u00eb siguron se \u00e7donj\u00ebra pal\u00eb kupton synimet dhe vijat e kuqe t\u00eb tjetr\u00ebs \u2013 edhe pse deri m\u00eb tash, Rusia <\/span>nuk ka pranuar t\u00eb angazhohet<\/span><\/a> n\u00eb mekanizmat ekzistues nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb qart\u00ebsuar q\u00ebllimet ushtarake.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ndon\u00ebse gjendja e t\u00eb drejtave t\u00eb njeriut n\u00eb Rusi po p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet, ajo nuk paraqet k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb p\u00ebr interesat per\u00ebndimore, ashtu si pushtimi rus i Ukrain\u00ebs, manipulimi i suksessh\u00ebm i zgjedhjeve per\u00ebndimore, apo shtr\u00ebngimi ushtarak i nj\u00eb vendi evropian. Sido q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb, kjo nuk duhet t\u2019i ndaloj\u00eb lider\u00ebt dhe zyrtar\u00ebt evropian\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ngren\u00eb raste individuale sa her\u00eb q\u00eb takohen me homolog\u00ebt rus\u00eb, ose q\u00eb t\u00eb sanksionojn\u00eb individ\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar n\u00eb raste t\u00eb r\u00ebnda. Megjithat\u00eb, t\u00eb drejtat e njeriut nuk duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb shtys\u00eb p\u00ebr politikb\u00ebrje- madje edhe n\u00eb rastin e nj\u00eb figure t\u00eb spikatur si Navalny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb qasje m\u00eb koherente per\u00ebndimore ndaj Rusis\u00eb duhet t\u00eb bazohet n\u00eb kufizimin e d\u00ebmit q\u00eb mund t\u2019i shkaktoj\u00eb interesave t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb dhe NATO-s dhe fqinjve t\u00eb tyre t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Lindore, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht Ukrain\u00ebs dhe Bjellorusis\u00eb \u2013 ende cak i mundsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr inkorporim n\u00eb Rusi. Putin-i mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb pushtet edhe p\u00ebr nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb; nuk ka gjas\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb tejkaloj\u00eb mosbesimin p\u00ebr NATO-n dhe BE-n\u00eb, apo t\u00eb ndaloj\u00eb s\u00eb k\u00ebrkuari sfera t\u00eb influenc\u00ebs n\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn ish-sovjetike. Disa politikan\u00eb evropian\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Emmanueal Macron-in, vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb <\/span>argumentojn\u00eb<\/span><\/a> se Evropa duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsoj\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet e saj me Rusin\u00eb p\u00ebrmes dialogut. Patjet\u00ebr q\u00eb Evropa duhet t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb bisedimet me Kremlinin dhe shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb ruse, por pa iluzione se marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet do t\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb ndryshime thelb\u00ebsore. Bot\u00ebkuptimi i shum\u00ebs zero i Putin-it, q\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht i takon edhe establishmentit politik rus, do t\u00eb udh\u00ebzoj\u00eb sjelljen e jashtme t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen e af\u00ebrt. E gjitha \u00e7far\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb vendet per\u00ebndimore,\u00a0 \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb sigurohen se ato dhe partner\u00ebt e tyre mos t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb n\u00eb an\u00ebn e humb\u00ebsve.<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

Artikulli origjinal n\u00eb <\/span>Center for European Reform<\/span><\/a>, m\u00eb 13 prill 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ky artikull mb\u00ebshtetet nga “Sbunker” p\u00ebrmes projektit t\u00eb financuar nga Ambasada Amerikane. Mendimet e shprehura k\u00ebtu jan\u00eb t\u00eb autorit dhe jo medoemos pasqyrojn\u00eb q\u00ebndrimet e Departamentit t\u00eb Shtetit.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vladimir Putin-i po k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon s\u00ebrish Ukrain\u00ebn. Deri m\u00eb tash, Per\u00ebndimi nuk ka gjetur nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb bashkuar dhe t\u00eb efektshme p\u00ebr t\u2019u marr\u00eb me k\u00ebt\u00eb dhe sfidat tjera q\u00eb paraqet Rusia. N\u00eb jav\u00ebt e fundit luftimet jan\u00eb intensifikuar n\u00eb rajonin e Donbasit n\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn lindore. Humbjet n\u00eb njer\u00ebz nga ana e Ukrain\u00ebs jan\u00eb shtuar p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":232,"featured_media":8141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1260],"ppma_author":[236],"class_list":["post-8185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-kremlinshah"],"authors":[{"term_id":236,"user_id":232,"is_guest":0,"slug":"ian-bond","display_name":"Ian Bond","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/download-20-3.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/download-20-3.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Bond","first_name":"Ian","description":"Ian Bond \u00ebsht\u00eb Drejtor i Politik\u00ebs s\u00eb Jashtme n\u00eb Qendr\u00ebn p\u00ebr Reform\u00eb Evropiane."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/232"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8185"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8186,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8185\/revisions\/8186"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8185"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=8185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}