{"id":13094,"date":"2025-08-27T13:43:56","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T11:43:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=13094"},"modified":"2025-08-27T13:44:05","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T11:44:05","slug":"rusia-dhe-ukraina-me-pozicione-diametralisht-te-kunderta-a-ka-gjasa-per-marreveshje-paqeje-gjate-vitit-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/opinion\/rusia-dhe-ukraina-me-pozicione-diametralisht-te-kunderta-a-ka-gjasa-per-marreveshje-paqeje-gjate-vitit-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Rusia dhe Ukraina me pozicione diametralisht t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta: a ka gjasa p\u00ebr marr\u00ebveshje paqeje gjat\u00eb vitit 2025?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Takimet e presidentit amerikan Donald Trump me presidentin rus Vladimir Putin n\u00eb Alask\u00eb dhe me presidentin ukrainas Volodymyr Zelensky dhe lider\u00ebt kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs, BE-s\u00eb dhe NATO-s n\u00eb Uashington, kan\u00eb ringjallur shpres\u00ebn se ndoshta ekziston nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr arritjen e nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje <\/span>paqeje<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Por, a ka gjasa reale t\u00eb krijohen kushtet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb till\u00eb p\u00ebrmes p\u00ebrfshirjes s\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb? Cilat jan\u00eb kushtet dhe vijat e kuqe t\u00eb pal\u00ebve t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb konflikt?<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesat ruse<\/b><\/p>\n

Rusia ka <\/span>tri k\u00ebrkesa<\/span><\/a> themelore p\u00ebr p\u00ebrfundimin e luft\u00ebs, q\u00eb i ka shtruar n\u00eb qershor t\u00eb vitit 2024, s\u00eb cilave u q\u00ebndron besnike n\u00eb vazhdim\u00ebsi. K\u00ebrkesa e par\u00eb lidhet me njohjen e territoreve t\u00eb pushtuara. Rusia k\u00ebrkon q\u00eb Per\u00ebndimi t\u00eb njoh\u00eb si pjes\u00eb t\u00eb saj jo vet\u00ebm Krimen\u00eb (e aneksuar n\u00eb vitin 2014), por edhe kat\u00ebr rajonet e pushtuara gjat\u00eb fushat\u00ebs luftarake q\u00eb nisi m\u00eb 2022: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia dhe Kherson.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Presidenti Putin e ka theksuar vazhdimisht k\u00ebt\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00eb, duke e forcuar at\u00eb p\u00ebrmes organizimit t\u00eb <\/span>referendumeve<\/span><\/a> t\u00eb kontestuara n\u00eb territoret e pushtuara dhe m\u00eb pas duke i shpallur ato rajone si pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Federat\u00ebs Ruse. Megjithat\u00eb, k\u00ebto jan\u00eb k\u00ebrkesa maksimaliste sepse vet\u00ebm rajoni i Luhanskut \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht i okupuar nga forcat ruse. Tri rajonet e tjera jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm pjes\u00ebrisht t\u00eb okupuara.<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesa e dyt\u00eb mbetet neutraliteti ushtarak i Ukrain\u00ebs. P\u00ebr Kremlinin, an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimi i Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb NATO p\u00ebrb\u00ebn k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim ekzistencial. Nga k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimi rus, garancit\u00eb e siguris\u00eb t\u00eb ofruara nga vendet europiane, t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetura indirekt edhe nga presidenti Trump, jan\u00eb t\u00eb ngjashme me nj\u00eb angazhim t\u00eb Nenit 5 t\u00eb NATO-s, gj\u00eb q\u00eb garanton mbrojtje kolektive n\u00eb rast sulmi t\u00eb shteteve an\u00ebtare.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb vitin 2022, n\u00eb bisedimet e Stambollit, Rusia k\u00ebrkoi q\u00eb \u00e7do garanci sigurie t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshinte edhe pjes\u00ebmarrjen e saj, duke i dh\u00ebn\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs veto mbi t\u00eb ardhmen e <\/span>Ukrain\u00ebs<\/span><\/a>. E nj\u00ebjta k\u00ebrkes\u00eb u p\u00ebrs\u00ebrit nga Kremlini edhe pas Samitit t\u00eb Alask\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb Uashingtonit. Ministri i Jasht\u00ebm rus, Sergey Lavrov, n\u00eb nj\u00eb <\/span>deklarat\u00eb<\/span><\/a> n\u00ebnvizoi se Moska nuk do t\u00eb pajtohet me garancit\u00eb kolektive t\u00eb siguris\u00eb t\u00eb negociuara pa pjes\u00ebmarrjen e saj.<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesa e tret\u00eb e Kremlinit lidhet me \u00e7armatimin e Ukrain\u00ebs. Rusia k\u00ebrkon reduktim t\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm t\u00eb forcave t\u00eb armatosura ukrainase, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen Ukraina t\u00eb mos paraqes\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim potencial. Kjo k\u00ebrkes\u00eb praktikisht do ta linte Ukrain\u00ebn pa aft\u00ebsi reale p\u00ebr mbrojtje dhe do ta b\u00ebnte t\u00eb varur nga vullneti i Kremlinit. Rusia nuk i konsideron k\u00ebto thjesht pika negociuese, por shtylla t\u00eb strategjis\u00eb nacionale.<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesat e Ukrain\u00ebs dhe vendeve europiane<\/b><\/p>\n

Ukraina dhe partner\u00ebt e saj europian\u00eb mbajn\u00eb nj\u00eb q\u00ebndrim po aq t\u00eb pal\u00ebkundur n\u00eb k\u00ebrkesat e tyre. Presidenti Zelensky n\u00eb disa raste \u00ebsht\u00eb shprehur se Ukraina nuk ka territore p\u00ebr t\u2019i dh\u00ebn\u00eb <\/span>Rusis\u00eb<\/span><\/a>. Kievi zyrtar k\u00ebrkon rikthimin e integritetit territorial brenda kufijve t\u00eb vitit 1991.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, edhe opinioni publik ukrainas \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse unanim kund\u00ebr ndonj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin ndarjen e territorit. Nj\u00eb <\/span>sondazh<\/span><\/a> i realizuar nga Instituti Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar i Sociologjis\u00eb n\u00eb Kiev tregon se mbi gjysma e qytetar\u00ebve ukrainas nuk do t\u00eb pranonin asnj\u00eb zgjidhje q\u00eb i jep territor Rusis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrtej integritetit territorial, Ukraina insiston me k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulje p\u00ebr garanci t\u00eb forta sigurie dhe konkrete, t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb edhe prani t\u00eb trupave europian\u00eb n\u00eb territorin e saj. Sipas Zelenzky-t, garancit\u00eb e siguris\u00eb duhet t\u00eb definohen para ndonj\u00eb takimi eventual q\u00eb ai mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb me presidentin <\/span>Putin<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb reagim racional nga ana e Ukrain\u00ebs dhe vjen si pasoj\u00eb e zhg\u00ebnjimit t\u00eb thell\u00eb q\u00eb ky vend ka nga Memorandumi i Budapestit i vitit 1994, kur Ukraina hoqi dor\u00eb nga arsenali b\u00ebrthamor q\u00eb kishte trash\u00ebguar nga shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrja e ish-Bashkimit Sovjetik n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb garancive t\u00eb siguris\u00eb t\u00eb ofruara nga SHBA-ja, Britania e Madhe dhe Rusia. K\u00ebto garanci m\u00eb pas u shkel\u00ebn nga vet\u00eb <\/span>Rusia<\/span><\/a>, nd\u00ebrsa vendet per\u00ebndimore d\u00ebshtuan t\u2019i vihen n\u00eb ndihm\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesa e tret\u00eb e Kievit lidhet me mb\u00ebshtetjen e m\u00ebtejshme ushtarake nga Per\u00ebndimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb forcuar aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e vet mbrojt\u00ebse n\u00eb rrafshin afatgjat\u00eb. N\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me k\u00ebt\u00eb, Ukraina tashm\u00eb ka marr\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje nga NATO-ja, e cila ka miratuar plane shum\u00ebvje\u00e7are p\u00ebr trajnimin dhe furnizimin e ushtris\u00eb ukrainase. Specifikisht, n\u00eb Samitin e Vilnius, t\u00eb mbajtur n\u00eb vitin 2023, NATO-ja miratoi nj\u00eb program asistence shum\u00ebvje\u00e7are p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn, ku p\u00ebrfshihen ndihma n\u00eb armatime, trajnime dhe koordinim t\u00eb furnizimeve <\/span>afatgjata<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb hendek v\u00ebshtir\u00eb i kap\u00ebrcyesh\u00ebm<\/b><\/p>\n

Nga analiza e k\u00ebrkesave, si t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, ashtu edhe t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, b\u00ebhet e qart\u00eb se n\u00eb tri \u00e7\u00ebshtjet themelore pal\u00ebt jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb jan\u00eb larg nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebs, por mbajn\u00eb pozicione diametralisht t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00ebr\u00ebn an\u00eb, Rusia k\u00ebrkon njohjen e territoreve t\u00eb pushtuara, nj\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb neutrale dhe \u00e7armatosjen e saj. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, Ukraina dhe partner\u00ebt europian\u00eb, p\u00ebrkundrazi, mbeten t\u00eb vendosur p\u00ebr rikthimin e integritetit territorial, insistojn\u00eb me k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulje p\u00ebr garanci t\u00eb forta sigurie, si dhe mb\u00ebshtesin ruajtjen e nj\u00eb ushtrie t\u00eb aft\u00eb q\u00eb garanton mbrojtjen e vendit.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, gjasat jan\u00eb minimale q\u00eb t\u00eb arrihet nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e q\u00ebndrueshme paqeje k\u00ebt\u00eb vit. N\u00eb k\u00ebto rrethana, zhvillimet n\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00eb mbesin determinuese p\u00ebr \u00e7do zhvillim t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm diplomatik. Megjithat\u00eb, nuk duhet m\u00ebnjanuar ndonj\u00eb skenar ekstrem t\u00eb pu\u00e7it politik n\u00eb Rusi, apo trazirave sociale t\u00eb shkaktuara nga nj\u00eb ekonomi fragjile dhe humbjet e m\u00ebdha n\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00eb \u2013 financiare dhe njer\u00ebzore.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Takimet e presidentit amerikan Donald Trump me presidentin rus Vladimir Putin n\u00eb Alask\u00eb dhe me presidentin ukrainas Volodymyr Zelensky dhe lider\u00ebt kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs, BE-s\u00eb dhe NATO-s n\u00eb Uashington, kan\u00eb ringjallur shpres\u00ebn se ndoshta ekziston nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr arritjen e nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje paqeje.\u00a0 Por, a ka gjasa reale t\u00eb krijohen kushtet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":402,"featured_media":13096,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[1043,624,637,999,2535],"ppma_author":[688],"class_list":["post-13094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-be","tag-kryesore","tag-nato","tag-shba","tag-ukraine-rusi"],"authors":[{"term_id":688,"user_id":402,"is_guest":0,"slug":"alfred-marleku","display_name":"Alfred Marleku","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/IMG_0067-min-scaled-1-e1725456797811.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/IMG_0067-min-scaled-1-e1725456797811.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Marleku","first_name":"Alfred","description":"Alfred Marleku ka p\u00ebrfunduar studimet bachelor, master dhe ato t\u00eb doktorat\u00ebs n\u00eb shkenca politike. Aktualisht \u00ebsht\u00eb ligj\u00ebrues n\u00eb Kolegjin \u201cUBT\u201d, Fakultetin e Shkencave Politike.\r\n\r\nP\u00ebr shum\u00eb vjet ka punuar si menaxher i projekteve t\u00eb ndryshme t\u00eb financuara nga Komisioni Evropian, USAID-i, Ambasada Amerikane etj., t\u00eb cilat fokusohen, kryesisht, n\u00eb reformat e arsimit t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim dhe zhvillim (R&D); kthimin e trurit; zhvillimin e plan-programeve n\u00eb harmoni me nevojat e tregut etj. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb ka qen\u00eb i angazhuar edhe n\u00eb sektorin publik si k\u00ebshilltar politik n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e bashk\u00ebpunimit juridik nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/402"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13094"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13094\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13102,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13094\/revisions\/13102"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13094"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=13094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}