{"id":13236,"date":"2025-03-31T12:53:17","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T10:53:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=13236"},"modified":"2025-10-02T12:54:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T10:54:43","slug":"disinfo-radar-watch-and-warn-issue-4-march-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/disinfo\/disinfo-radar-watch-and-warn-issue-4-march-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"DISINFO RADAR: Watch and Warn, issue #4 (March 2025)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans identified during March 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

Western Balkans Watch and Warn:\u00a0 Demands for accountability in tragic Balkan events are expected to initiate more disinformation campaigns covering dysfunctional corrupt systems
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In the wake of recent\u00a0tragedies the public discourse in Western Balkans is affected by\u00a0information manipulation, exploiting the lack of transparency and accountability. Several tragic events unveiling systemic corruption were hot-points for disinformation campaigns aimed to exonerate the authorities from responsibility. Novi Sad Railway Station canopy collapse in\u00a0Srbija\u00a0<\/a>resulting in 17 dead, Ko\u010dani nightclub fire in North Macedonia resulting in 59 dead,\u00a0Cetinje\u00a0<\/a>shooting in\u00a0Montenegro\u00a0<\/a>resulting in 10 dead, fatal teenage stabbing in Tirana (blamed on TikTok<\/a>\u00a0resulting in\u00a0ban of the social network<\/a>), quarry landslide in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) resulting in 27 dead, all revealed disfunctional or corrupt system that enabled the tragedies, followed by aggressive disinformation campaigns.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the reasons behind these campaigns, their very existence is a clear indication of lack of systemic societal response to disinformation, contrary to the obligations of the countries to build mechanisms to increase the societal resilience which is an obligation within the EU integration process. In the current information environment, this trend is expected to continue, amplified by those local actors that had been serving as FIMI proxies, as a way to increase discord and trust in the democratic institutions and the West. The Serbian government has\u00a0asked the Russian Secret Service for help<\/a>\u00a0against\u00a0the student protests<\/a>, while in North Macedonia a smear campaign to undermine the\u00a0protests for accountability<\/a>\u00a0attempts to\u00a0link them with Serbian movement<\/a>, portraying both as\u00a0orchestrated<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0criminal<\/a>, reiterating rhetoric of Kremlin origin about \u2018color revolutions.\u2019 Macedonian authorities have been\u00a0arresting Serbian citizens<\/a>\u00a0at the border, blaming them as exporters of instability.<\/p>\n

These\u00a0incidents have\u00a0underscored\u00a0widespread\u00a0problems\u00a0such as corruption,\u00a0lax\u00a0safety\u00a0standards, and mismanagement. However, instead of encouraging accountability,\u00a0reform\u00a0and\u00a0transparency, voices emerged\u00a0attempting\u00a0to\u00a0divert\u00a0blame from\u00a0the authorities, instigating various\u00a0manipulations<\/a>.\u00a0Consequently, the application of the same disinformation strategies can be anticipated in upcoming catastrophes to conceal government responsibility. These may include downplaying casualty figures, attributing catastrophes to uncontrollable incidents rather than negligence, or diverting blame to\u00a0extraneous entities<\/a>. Such campaigns impede justice for the victims and hinder necessary institutional reforms by misleading the public and lowering pressure on the government to implement change. Since the region continues to grapple with those challenges, increasing media literacy and support for independent investigative journalism will be crucial in refuting disinformation and not letting government accountability be compromised in the wake of such tragedies.<\/p>\n

Regional media and social media are also affected by more disinformation related to Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine and related negotiations, alongside media manipulations related to statements and acts of the new US administration.<\/p>\n

Albania:\u00a0 Special prosecution`s Veliaj case is expected to create disinformation cross-fire, aimed at delegitimizing the justice system<\/b><\/p>\n

As\u00a0May parliamentary elections<\/a>\u00a0are approaching, divisive and polarizing issues are likely to become more frequent in the Albanian public discourse. One of the most recent examples is the upcoming\u00a0Supreme Court\u00a0decision on the security measures for the Tirana Mayor Erion Veliaj.\u00a0Information manipulation by different\u00a0political actors seeking to\u00a0tilt\u00a0public\u00a0opinion\u00a0against\u00a0the justice system\u00a0is expected. The opposition is expected to continue its narrative about being captured by the government which attacks the opposition to implement George Soros\u2019s agenda. These polarizing contradicting narratives aim to destroy the citizens\u2019 belief in the justice system and specifically in the Special Prosecutors Office (SPAK<\/a>), which according to recent polls is currently the most trusted institution in Albania.<\/p>\n

In\u00a0the\u00a0event\u00a0of\u00a0a confirmation of\u00a0Veliaj\u2018s detention, government-aligned narratives may attempt to delegitimize\u00a0SPAK by\u00a0politicizing\u00a0the prosecution, undermining trust in judicial independence. Alternatively,\u00a0in\u00a0case\u00a0the court\u00a0renders\u00a0a\u00a0verdict\u00a0in\u00a0favor\u00a0of\u00a0house\u00a0arrest,\u00a0this\u00a0would\u00a0encourage the opposition\u2019s narrative\u00a0that\u00a0the\u00a0government\u00a0is\u00a0interfering\u00a0in the judiciary as a tool for\u00a0the\u00a0defense of\u00a0high-level corruption. Both\u00a0would\u00a0risk being\u00a0manipulated\u00a0to\u00a0annihilate\u00a0public\u00a0trust\u00a0in the ongoing\u00a0reform of the\u00a0justice\u00a0system\u00a0and\u00a0in\u00a0Albania\u2018s\u00a0European\u00a0integration.<\/p>\n

Bosnia and Herzegovina:\u00a0 Disinformation campaigns delegitimizing Bosnian judiciary are expected amid arrest warrants for RS leadership
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As\u00a0arrest warrants<\/a>\u00a0for the\u00a0Republika Srpska (RS) leadership<\/a>\u00a0are issued, a\u00a0frenzy\u00a0of disinformation campaigns\u00a0are expected be initiated, primarily\u00a0against the legitimacy of Bosnia and Herzegovina\u2019s judicial\u00a0authorities.\u00a0The\u00a0dominant narratives will attempt to\u00a0delegitimize\u00a0<\/a>the BiH Prosecutor\u2019s Office, the Court of BiH, and the Constitutional Court by\u00a0portraying\u00a0<\/a>them as \u201cunconstitutional\u201d or under\u00a0foreign\u00a0influence.\u00a0These narratives are aimed at\u00a0creating\u00a0doubt\u00a0about BiH\u2018s\u00a0constitutional order<\/a>, eroding public\u00a0confidence in state institutions and promoting\u00a0political\u00a0polarization.<\/p>\n

These claims,\u00a0instigated by RS\u00a0government officials<\/a>,\u00a0coalition parties<\/a>,\u00a0state media<\/a>\u00a0and allied\u00a0pundits, seek to\u00a0characterize\u00a0the legal\u00a0process\u00a0as\u00a0being\u00a0politically\u00a0driven,\u00a0not\u00a0based\u00a0on\u00a0the rule of law.\u00a0Antidemocratic narratives<\/a>\u00a0are expected to be on the rise,\u00a0in order\u00a0to\u00a0delegitimize Western democratic values<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0grant\u00a0legitimacy\u00a0to\u00a0antidemocratic tendencies<\/a>, through\u00a0promoting public discontent these messages aim to demobilize\u00a0institutional accountability and reform\u00a0support.\u00a0Narratives portraying\u00a0legal\u00a0sanctions\u00a0as political\u00a0repression,\u00a0as well as the RS leadership as heroic defenders of Serb interests against a purportedly\u00a0Western-enforced system aiming at\u00a0shielding\u00a0principal figures from accountability can be expected to dominate the public discourse.<\/p>\n

Kosovo:\u00a0 Elections aftermath is likely to surge polarizing disinformation and ethnic tensions over possible government coalitions\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the aftermath of Kosovo\u2018s\u00a0parliamentary elections<\/a>, more disinformation is expected from\u00a0political\u00a0actors\u00a0aiming\u00a0to shape public perception\u00a0regarding\u00a0the coalition-forming\u00a0process. As incumbent Vetevendosje (LVV)\u00a0failed to win full majority, contradicting narratives of the Government and the opposition lead to further polarisation of the public discourse. The opposition`s refusal to join the government coalition is expected to be portrayed as anti-reformist, while the government\u2019s approach to smaller parties with less seats is expected to be portrayed as coercive. Excluding the Serbian List (Srpska Lista) from the negotiations is expected to fuel ethnic tensions on the base of marginalisation of minorities.<\/p>\n

The potential harmful\u00a0narratives\u00a0would\u00a0include portraying coalition negotiations as improper\u00a0political maneuvering or\u00a0as\u00a0a deliberate\u00a0delaying\u00a0of governance. Government-friendly\u00a0voices\u00a0could frame opposition parties\u2019 refusal to negotiate as an anti-reformist blockade, while opposition leaders\u00a0could\u00a0lead\u00a0the\u00a0charge on assertions\u00a0that LVV\u2018s\u00a0overtures\u00a0to minority representatives\u00a0are\u00a0coercive\u00a0or\u00a0undemocratic.\u00a0Further, the\u00a0denial\u00a0of\u00a0a\u00a0seat\u00a0at the negotiating table to the Serbian List\u00a0could be\u00a0distorted as a broader marginalization of Kosovo\u2019s Serbs,\u00a0potentially further inflating ethnic tensions<\/a>. Disinformation\u00a0would also distort procedural aspects, including\u00a0the\u00a0President\u2019s\u00a0involvement\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0formation\u00a0of\u00a0government,\u00a0exaggerating or downplaying their constitutional role\u00a0in\u00a0molding\u00a0the process.\u00a0Under\u00a0conditions of\u00a0political\u00a0instability that is continuously\u00a0fueled by Russian negation of Kosovo independence<\/a>,\u00a0institutional\u00a0legitimacy\u00a0narratives\u00a0crafted\u00a0to\u00a0undermine\u00a0it,\u00a0generate\u00a0instability, and\u00a0intensify\u00a0social\u00a0cleavages are most likely.<\/p>\n

Montenegro:\u00a0 Post election coalitions disinformation campaigns are expected to serve as tools for swaying voters in local elections\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

While\u00a0Montenegro\u2019s\u00a0opposition\u00a0and\u00a0governing\u00a0coalition\u00a0prepare\u00a0for local elections in Nik\u0161i\u0107 on April 13, their shared\u00a0commitment to\u00a0EU\u00a0membership could be undermined\u00a0by\u00a0deeply\u00a0ingrained\u00a0political\u00a0differences.\u00a0\u00a0Although\u00a0all\u00a0of\u00a0them\u00a0make\u00a0public statements supporting\u00a0European integration,\u00a0history\u00a0shows\u00a0that\u00a0the\u00a0agreement\u00a0made could quickly become a battleground for\u00a0point-scoring\u00a0by parties. Disinformation campaigns\u00a0could\u00a0appear\u00a0on\u00a0either\u00a0side\u00a0of\u00a0the conflict,\u00a0pro-government<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0pro-opposition<\/a>\u00a0social media\u00a0voices\u00a0promoting\u00a0stories\u00a0claiming\u00a0the\u00a0other\u00a0camp\u00a0has\u00a0betrayed\u00a0the agreement. Anonymous social media accounts have shared disinformation regarding allegedly agreed post-election coalition with a\u00a0photoshopped picture<\/a>, which is a clear indication that it might re-occur as elections are approaching.<\/p>\n

Their\u00a0strategy\u00a0is likely to be\u00a0a\u00a0promotion of\u00a0a\u00a0distorted view of current events<\/a>,\u00a0simplifying complex political processes into crude\u00a0\u201chero vs. villain\u201d\u00a0confrontations. By\u00a0framing\u00a0their own\u00a0agenda\u00a0as the sole\u00a0guardian\u00a0of Montenegro\u2018s EU path and the opposition as\u00a0holding\u00a0it back, political\u00a0players\u00a0try\u00a0to\u00a0sway\u00a0public\u00a0opinion and consolidate their voter base.<\/p>\n

This strategy\u00a0most\u00a0particularly targets vulnerable\u00a0groups such as elderly citizens and nationally biased voters, who can\u00a0most\u00a0readily\u00a0be\u00a0swayed\u00a0by\u00a0emotional\u00a0appeals. The lack of\u00a0advanced\u00a0political discourse\u00a0has\u00a0the\u00a0capability to mislead citizens,\u00a0and\u00a0it\u00a0becomes\u00a0harder for\u00a0the\u00a0people\u00a0to make\u00a0logical\u00a0choices\u00a0on\u00a0their\u00a0rulers. As\u00a0anger\u00a0at\u00a0the\u00a0slow EU accession\u00a0of Montenegro grows, there is a real danger that popular\u00a0discontent\u00a0will be\u00a0politicized\u00a0and used\u00a0to\u00a0delegitimize democratic processes. If Montenegro does\u00a0not\u00a0advance toward membership, disillusionment\u00a0will spread across the region, further eroding\u00a0confidence in European integration. In such\u00a0an event, disinformation\u00a0is\u00a0used\u00a0as a political tool\u2014not\u00a0for\u00a0citizen\u00a0informing\u00a0and\u00a0mobilization\u00a0but\u00a0for\u00a0employing\u00a0citizens\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0purpose\u00a0of\u00a0perpetuating\u00a0cleavages\u00a0instead\u00a0of\u00a0advancing\u00a0real progress.<\/p>\n

North Macedonia: Aftermath of Ko\u010dani nightclub fire and resulting protests are likely to initiate new witch-hunt disinformation campaigns targeting civil society\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The\u00a0Ko\u010dani\u00a0nightclub fire\u00a0disaster, which claimed 59 lives, has unleashed a wave of public outrage in North Macedonia, with\u00a0demonstrators taking to city center<\/a>s to honor the victims and demand change of the system. Several different\u00a0movements\u00a0mobilized\u00a0a\u00a0large\u00a0number of citizens, expressing grief and outrage, seeking an end to entrenched\u00a0corruption and\u00a0complacency.\u00a0These protests,\u00a0however, have already begun\u00a0to\u00a0be\u00a0manipulated by\u00a0disinformation campaigns<\/a>, with\u00a0different media labeling them as a\u00a0conspiracy to trigger a \u201cnew Colorful Revolution.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0Worrisome targeting of journalists and civil society is expected to continue, in an attempt to deflect from institutional accountability with witch-hunts and scapegoating, and\u00a0suppress professional reporting<\/a>\u00a0via censorship and self-censorship.<\/p>\n

Smear campaign\u00a0targeting student protesters<\/a>\u00a0whose involvement has been questioned based on their\u00a0background or\u00a0their families has been launched in an attempt\u00a0to delegitimize the\u00a0protests. Meanwhile, Serbian students who had\u00a0arrived\u00a0to\u00a0participate\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0protests were\u00a0detained at the border<\/a>, fueling further speculation over\u00a0political interference. In the upcoming period, disinformation will rise to project the demonstrations as a foreign manipulation and not a genuine call for accountability. The NGO sector will likely be portrayed as a mastermind, since stories of foreign-backed destabilization are perpetuated. This approach copies past efforts at deflecting attention from government responsibility by situating civil society as a threat. Such efforts not only seek to discredit the movement but also seek to discourage wider mobilization by branding protesters as radicals, further polarizing society and making effective reforms difficult.<\/p>\n

Serbia:\u00a0 National Students Day \u2013 April 4th should be watched as hotpoint for disinformation flux delegitimizing the ongoing student protest
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As\u00a0the student\u00a0protests in Serbia\u00a0escalate\u00a0and\u00a0become less centralized, disinformation is\u00a0going\u00a0to play a\u00a0leading role in shaping public opinion and justifying government actions. A prevailing\u00a0narrative is expected\u00a0to portray student protesters as violent instigators, exaggerating or fabricating incidents to delegitimize protesters\u2019 demands and justify a more\u00a0violent\u00a0crackdown.\u00a0Simultaneously,\u00a0familiar anti-Western narratives<\/a>\u00a0can\u00a0be\u00a0expected to re-emerge,\u00a0including\u00a0accusations that the protests are foreign-orchestrated<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0a\u00a0bid to stage a \u201ccolor revolution\u201d or destabilize Serbia. These narratives aim to delegitimize the protests,\u00a0demobilize popular engagement<\/a>, and\u00a0reassert\u00a0entrenched\u00a0skepticism\u00a0of\u00a0European institutions.<\/p>\n

Disinformation can\u00a0also\u00a0manipulate\u00a0the\u00a0purpose of the European Public Prosecutor\u2019s Office (EPPO)\u00a0probe\u00a0into EU fund\u00a0abuse, either\u00a0minimizing\u00a0its\u00a0importance\u00a0or\u00a0presenting\u00a0it as\u00a0foreign\u00a0interference.\u00a0Furthermore, attempts\u00a0at\u00a0disconnecting\u00a0the protests from Serbia\u2018s EU integration path may be anticipated, despite the\u00a0fact that the\u00a0students\u2019 demands\u00a0are directly linked to institutional accountability and democratic reforms.<\/p>\n

\u2014<\/p>\n

Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn<\/b>\u00a0is a monthly publication by the\u00a0Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project<\/a>, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.<\/p>\n

The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.<\/p>\n

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