{"id":13238,"date":"2025-02-28T12:54:59","date_gmt":"2025-02-28T10:54:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=13238"},"modified":"2025-10-02T12:56:23","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T10:56:23","slug":"disinfo-radar-watch-and-warn-issue-3-february-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/disinfo\/disinfo-radar-watch-and-warn-issue-3-february-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"DISINFO RADAR: Watch and Warn, issue #3 (February 2025)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans<\/em><\/p>\n

Western Balkans Watch and Warn: The \u201cnew normal\u201d wave of disinformation is expected to overflow the region
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During February 2025, the Western Balkans \u0410nti-Disinformation Hub identified possible risks of upcoming disinformation campaigns concerning the region during March. The geopolitical turbulence related to changing US foreign policy (especially vis a vis Ukraine, Europe and the Balkans) and freeze of US foreign aid has significant impact on the regional security and stability, reflecting in the public discourse of the six countries. As communications from the White House and US State Department intensifies within the upcoming period, waves of disinformation on their foreign policy and how they will affect the region are expected to intensify. Such disinformation can be used as an excuse for antidemocratic actions, such as Serbia\u2019s Government using the new USAID policies as an excuse to use state apparatus to pressure civil society organizations, intensifying political witch-hunt framed in heroes vs. villains and traitors vs. patriots narratives.<\/p>\n

As ambiguous information is coming from the US administration on the future of foreign aid, Balkan domestic actors have been very active in spreading\u00a0misinformation in support of conspiracy theories for misuse of the foreign aid<\/a>. These antidemocratic disinformation narratives have been present in all six countries for decades, often weaponized and misused for delegitimization of civil society and basically any type of criticism towards autocratic Governments. With political winds changing directions globally, many of these old disinformation narratives have been recycled and upgraded with \u201cnew normal\u201d prism. This \u201cnew normal\u201d disinformation prism is used for creating tensions and fear for the uncertainties around the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the new policies that will influence the Balkans.<\/p>\n

Albania: Debunked disinformation for 100 000 Palestinian refugees in Albania can be weaponized for further polarization of the society\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Polarising discourse is expected to surge in Albania this spring, particularly due to the parliamentary elections scheduled for May. A recent issue that can continue to be a hot flash for disinformation, is the news coming from an Israeli journalist, claiming that Albania will host 100.000 Palestinian refugees coming from Gaza. Although this information was explicitly debunked from Prime minister Edi Rama, narratives surrounding this claim continue to multiply, as US President Trump continues to comment that he hasn\u2019t ruled out Albania as a potential host country for displaced Palestinians from Gaza. These comments are picked up from the opposition leader Berisha, and are further flooding the information environment, shaping the discourse.<\/p>\n

Having past experience and fresh memories with accepting 1900 ex-Arshaf Iranians in 2016, and Afghan refugees after the Taliban take-over in 2021, Albania has been a target to anti-migrant disinformation, often used for polarization of the citizens. As elections are coming up this spring, disinformation about refugees in Albania is expected to be used for fueling public fear, deepening societal divisions, and undermining trust in institutions. These narratives can influence through manipulation of the public perception and political decision-making, and harm the democratic elections.<\/p>\n

Bosnia and Herzegovina: March 1st \u2013 Independence day of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a kick-starter for polarizing disinformation surges
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Ongoing disinformation campaigns affecting Bosnia and Herzegovina`s information environment fuel polarization, aiming to deepen the divides between its citizens. This environment is weaponized as a strong anti-West and anti-EU tool, exploiting every possible topic of discussion for increasing divisive tension. Disinformation around the Indepence day of Bosnia and Herzegovina (March 1) is such a topic, with high risk of dissemination of claims disputing its constitutionality, especially in the context of the recent verdict of Serb entity president Milorad Dodik. His ongoing statements disputing the constitutionality of the courts trickle down in media and social media, wrapped around strong anti-western and anti-EU narratives.<\/p>\n

Polarizing disinformation campaigns about the Independence Day of Bosnia and Herzegovina have undermined the foundation of trust and cooperation which are essential for democratic governance in the last decades (examples<\/a>\u00a0from\u00a02022<\/a>,\u00a02023<\/a>). When disinformation campaigns spread false or exaggerated narratives about the legitimacy or unity of the state, they create division among citizens, erode public trust in institutions, and fuel political instability. This fragmentation fosters an environment where extremist ideologies can thrive, weakening the ability of democratic processes to function effectively, as well as Euroscepticism is on the rise, affecting citizens\u2019 trust in the EU.<\/p>\n

Kosovo: Untruthful claims for Kosovo`s involvement in Serbian protests will be central for disinformation campaigns in the upcoming period<\/strong><\/p>\n

Recent political developments in Serbia have been accompanied by a wave of disinformation, with both Serbian and Russian officials falsely accusing Kosovo of instigating protests and unrest within Serbia. Although no credible evidence supports these accusations, it is suspected that disinformation narratives including claims of foreign interference will continue as part of broader effort to deflect responsibility from Serbia\u2019s internal governance challenges. Media promotion of unverified statements by Serbian President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 appears to be a continuation of Serbia\u2019s long standing strategy narrative of portraying Kosovo as a constant threat to its stability, further complicating the normalization process and dialogue between the two countries. Disinformation undermines the credibility of independent journalism and fosters mistrust among the Serbian community in Kosovo. These narratives also complicate efforts by the European Union and NATO to promote stability and cooperation in the Western Balkans.<\/p>\n

By portraying Kosovo as a threat to its sovereignty and framing it as bent on destroying Serbia, the disinformation narratives are producing profound negative effects on both Kosovo\u2019s development and regional stability in Western Balkans. This harmful narrative not only hinders Kosovo\u2019s chance to gain international recognition but also fuels internal divisions and polarization within the country. More importantly, this undermines all western efforts for dialogue and peaceful initiatives.<\/p>\n

Read more about this at:<\/p>\n