N\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrvarur, luft\u00ebrat nd\u00ebrshtet\u00ebrore me arm\u00eb konvencionale duket se jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb kushtueshme, si n\u00eb aspektin ekonomik, ashtu edhe n\u00eb at\u00eb politik e diplomatik. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, ka koh\u00eb q\u00eb shtetet po p\u00ebrdorin nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb mjetesh dhe metodash atipike dhe hibride \u2013 t\u00eb cilat leht\u00ebsisht mund t\u00eb konvertohen n\u00eb arm\u00eb \u2013 duke filluar nga sanksionet, sulmet kibernetike, shp\u00ebrndarja e lajmeve t\u00eb rreme e deri te \u00e7rregullimi i tregjeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb. Nd\u00ebr k\u00ebto metoda kreative, k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi p\u00ebrmes manipulimit t\u00eb fluksit t\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht atraktiv p\u00ebr shtetet dhe lider\u00ebt autoritar\u00eb. Kriza e emigrant\u00ebve n\u00eb kufi me Polonin\u00eb, Letonin\u00eb dhe Lituanin\u00eb \u2013 e fabrikuar nga Bjellorusia, e q\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetet edhe nga Rusia \u2013 konsiderohet form\u00eb e luft\u00ebs hibride q\u00eb ka si synim strategjik, duke shfryt\u00ebzuar munges\u00ebn e nj\u00eb politike koherente t\u00eb migracionit, t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb presion mbi shtetet e Bashkimit Evropian p\u00ebr ta stimuluar rritjen e sentimentit ksenofobik, t\u00eb populizmit politik dhe krijimin e paqart\u00ebsive e mosmarr\u00ebveshjeve brenda vet\u00eb bllokut.<\/p>\n
Sfondi i nj\u00eb \u201ckrize hibride\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Shk\u00ebndijat e para t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj krize nis\u00ebn t\u00eb shp\u00ebrfaqen n\u00eb maj t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti. Gjith\u00e7ka filloi t\u00eb kristalizohej n\u00eb momentin kur presidenti i Bjellorusis\u00eb, Aleksand\u00ebr Lukashenko, u konsiderua nga shum\u00eb vende demokratike dhe organizata nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare si p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsi kryesor p\u00ebr manipulimin e zgjedhjeve dhe aplikimin e masave represive kundrejt forcave opozitare dhe kritik\u00ebve t\u00eb regjimit t\u00eb tij politik. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, Minsku u akuzua edhe si organizator dhe ekzekutues i rr\u00ebmbimit shtet\u00ebror t\u00eb aeroplanit dhe arrestimit t\u00eb kund\u00ebrligjsh\u00ebm t\u00eb redaktorit dhe aktivistit politik,\u00a0Roman Protasevi\u00e7<\/a>. Andaj, n\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtim t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre veprimeve, Bashkimi Evropian kishte vendosur sanksione ndaj Bjellorusis\u00eb, duke marr\u00eb si kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigje nga Lukashenko paralajm\u00ebrimin k\u00ebrc\u00ebnues se kjo e fundit nuk do t\u00eb angazhohej m\u00eb n\u00eb parandalimin e kontraband\u00ebs s\u00eb drog\u00ebs dhe emigrant\u00ebve ilegal\u00eb q\u00eb do ta kalojn\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet kufirit bjellorus e q\u00eb si destinacion kryesor kan\u00eb Bashkimin Evropian. \u201cNe ndaluam drog\u00ebn dhe emigrant\u00ebt. Tash e tutje do e konsumoni dhe do t\u2019i kapni vet\u00eb\u201d,\u00a0shprehej<\/a>\u00a0ai.<\/p>\n Nuk ishte e nevojshme t\u00eb kalonte shum\u00eb koh\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb kuptohej se n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb planet e Minskut ishin shum\u00eb m\u00eb perfide sesa thjesht mbyllja pasive e nj\u00ebrit sy dhe injorimi i asaj q\u00eb po ndodhte n\u00eb kufi. N\u00eb muajt vijues, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb\u00a0organizuar<\/a>\u00a0dhe n\u00ebn p\u00ebrkujdesjen e drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb t\u00eb institucioneve shtet\u00ebrore t\u00eb Bjellorusis\u00eb, me mij\u00ebra \u201cturist\u00eb\u201d filluan t\u00eb marrin rrug\u00ebn nga vende t\u00eb ndryshme t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb mesme \u2013 Iraku, Afganistani, Siria etj. \u2013 p\u00ebr n\u00eb Bjellorusi, p\u00ebr t\u2019u shoq\u00ebruar pastaj drejt kufirit me shtetet fqinje q\u00eb jan\u00eb an\u00ebtare e Bashkimit Evropian. N\u00eb qershor, sh\u00ebrbimet kufitare t\u00eb Lituanis\u00eb kishin pranuar sinjalet e para duke regjistruar nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb theksuar dhe rapide t\u00eb numrit t\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve t\u00eb paautorizuar t\u00eb cil\u00ebt vinin kryesisht nga Iraku dhe q\u00eb kishin p\u00ebr synim t\u00eb kalonin kufirin Lituani-Bjellorusi. N\u00eb gusht t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, ky shtet raportoi mbi\u00a04000 persona<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb arrestuar n\u00eb kufi. Sipas statistikave zyrtare, krahasuar me vitin 2020, kjo shif\u00ebr konsiderohej t\u00eb ishte rreth 50 her\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb.<\/p>\n T\u00eb ballafaquar me k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb re, nuk kaloi shum\u00eb koh\u00eb q\u00eb lider\u00ebt e vendeve fqinje me Bjellorusin\u00eb \u2013 por edhe ata t\u00eb shteteve tjera t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb \u2013 k\u00ebto veprime t\u00eb Minskut t\u2019i klasifikonin si t\u00eb q\u00ebllimshme dhe si nj\u00eb form\u00eb e ve\u00e7ant\u00eb e k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimit kundrejt siguris\u00eb s\u00eb tyre. S\u00eb k\u00ebndejmi, n\u00eb fund t\u00eb qershorit, ministrat e Brendsh\u00ebm t\u00eb Lituanis\u00eb, Letonis\u00eb dhe Estonis\u00eb \u2013 pas nj\u00eb takimin t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt \u2013 deklaronin se rritja rapide dhe drastike e numrit t\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve nuk ishte thjesht proces rast\u00ebsor i nj\u00eb grupi personash q\u00eb, p\u00ebrmes emigrimit n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb tret\u00eb, d\u00ebshp\u00ebrimisht synonin t\u00eb realizonin \u00ebndrr\u00ebn e tyre p\u00ebr nj\u00eb jet\u00eb me kushte m\u00eb t\u00eb mira materiale, siguri m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe liri e t\u00eb drejta t\u00eb avancuara. Sipas\u00a0tyre<\/a>, kjo ishte form\u00eb e \u201ck\u00ebrc\u00ebnimit hibrid e regjimit bjellorus kund\u00ebr vendeve baltike, BE-s\u00eb dhe NATO-s\u201d.<\/p>\n Bjellorusia u akuzua edhe nga Bashkimi Evropian se po prodhonte nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb n\u00eb shenj\u00eb hakmarrjeje p\u00ebr sanksionet e vendosura kund\u00ebr saj. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst,\u00a0kryeministri polak<\/a>, Mateus Moraviecki, akuzoi drejtp\u00ebrdrejt presidentin Lukashenko p\u00ebr \u201cp\u00ebrdorimin e civil\u00ebve si arm\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb moderne hibride\u201d. Kurse,\u00a0\u00c7arls Mi\u00e7el<\/a>, presidenti i K\u00ebshillit Evropian, e quajti kriz\u00ebn nj\u00eb \u201csulm brutal e hibrid n\u00eb kufijt\u00eb e BE-s\u00eb\u201d. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, zyrtar\u00ebt e\u00a0NATO<\/a>-s gjithashtu e d\u00ebnuan fuqish\u00ebm \u201cinstrumentalizimin e vazhduesh\u00ebm t\u00eb migracionit t\u00eb parregullt t\u00eb krijuar artificialisht nga Bjellorusia si pjes\u00eb e veprimeve hibride p\u00ebr q\u00ebllime politike\u201d. Ministri i Jasht\u00ebm gjerman,\u00a0Heiko Mas<\/a>, i quajti taktikat e Bjellorusis\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cloj\u00eb cinike pushteti\u201d dhe tha se nuk duhet t\u00eb lejohet q\u00eb \u201cshantazhi si metod\u00eb politike t\u00eb ket\u00eb sukses\u201d. Kurse, presidentja e Komisionit Evropian,\u00a0Ursula von der Leyen<\/a>, pas nj\u00eb takimi me presidentin e ShBA-s\u00eb, nga Uashingtoni n\u00ebnvizoi faktin se ajo q\u00eb po ndodhte n\u00eb kufirin e Bjellorusis\u00eb ishte \u201cnj\u00eb sulm hibrid, e jo nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb migrimi\u201d. Duke vazhduar tutje, ajo konstatoi se ky veprim \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201cp\u00ebrpjekje e nj\u00eb regjimi autoritar q\u00eb t\u2019i destabilizoj\u00eb fqinj\u00ebt e tij demokratik\u00eb\u2026 por ne duhet t\u2019i mbrojm\u00eb demokracit\u00eb tona nga kjo lloj loje cinike e gjeopolitik\u00ebs s\u00eb pushtetit\u201d.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb taktik\u00eb e vjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb re<\/strong><\/p>\n Edhe pse n\u00eb dukje t\u00eb par\u00eb kjo form\u00eb e k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimit mund t\u00eb perceptohet si di\u00e7ka e re dhe mjaft inovative, \u00ebsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb n\u00ebnvizohet fakti se shtetet, sidomos regjimet politike autoritare, edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn i kan\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur emigrant\u00ebt si arm\u00eb politike. N\u00eb vitin\u00a01971<\/a>, kur autoritetet e Bashkimit Sovjetik ua mund\u00ebsuan rreth 1300 hebrenjve q\u00eb t\u00eb migronin p\u00ebr n\u00eb Izrael, zyrtar\u00ebt sovjetik\u00eb me q\u00ebllim lejuan q\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontingjent t\u00eb infiltroheshin edhe persona t\u00eb tjer\u00eb me dosje dhe t\u00eb kaluar kriminale, q\u00eb kishin arritur t\u00eb falsifikonin dokumentacionin, me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb t\u00eb paraqiteshin si hebrenj dhe t\u00eb udh\u00ebtonin bashk\u00eb me ta.<\/p>\n Af\u00ebrsisht t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn taktik\u00eb kishte zbatuar edhe lideri kuban Fidel Kastro. N\u00eb vitin 1980 ai i hapi portet e vendit duke ua mund\u00ebsuar k\u00ebshtu rreth\u00a0125.000<\/a>\u00a0kuban\u00ebve q\u00eb t\u00eb migronin n\u00eb Florida t\u00eb ShBA-s\u00eb. Kjo val\u00eb emigrant\u00ebsh shkaktoi at\u00eb q\u00eb njihet si \u201cEgzodi i Marielit\u201d (El \u00e9xodo del Mariel<\/a>). Pjesa d\u00ebrrmuese e k\u00ebsaj mase njer\u00ebzish q\u00eb po braktisnin Kub\u00ebn nuk do mend se ishin n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb kushteve m\u00eb t\u00eb mira ekonomike, apo synonin t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitonin nga respektimi i lirive dhe t\u00eb drejtave politike q\u00eb mund\u00ebsoheshin n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb lir\u00eb e demokratik si ShBA-ja, larg mjerimit socio-ekonomik q\u00eb mbizot\u00ebronte at\u00ebbot\u00eb n\u00eb Kub\u00ebn e Kastros. Mir\u00ebpo, regjimi i k\u00ebtij t\u00eb fundit e shfryt\u00ebzoi k\u00ebt\u00eb val\u00eb emigrant\u00ebsh dhe n\u00eb mesin e tyre \u2013 n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb dinake, por t\u00eb mir\u00ebplanifikuar \u2013 arriti t\u00eb infiltroj\u00eb persona t\u00eb dhunsh\u00ebm me\u00a0t\u00eb kaluar kriminale<\/a>, t\u00eb burgosur apo edhe pacient\u00eb me probleme mendore q\u00eb ishin nxjerr\u00eb direkt nga spitalet psikiatrike t\u00eb Kub\u00ebs.<\/p>\n Mir\u00ebpo, m\u00eb q\u00ebllim q\u00eb t\u2019i merrte si modele zbatimi, presidenti Lukashenko nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb se e kishte shum\u00eb t\u00eb nevojshme q\u00eb t\u00eb zhytej n\u00eb analiza t\u00eb thelluara literature p\u00ebr t\u00eb identifikuar raste nga historia t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve si arm\u00eb politike. Shembuj t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm \u2013 madje shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb fresk\u00ebt \u2013 dhe udh\u00ebzime konkrete mund t\u00eb gjente fare leht\u00eb edhe nga fqinji i tij, presidenti rus Putin, apo edhe homologu i tij turk, Erdogan.<\/p>\n K\u00ebshtu, n\u00eb vitin 2016, Bashkimi Evropian e akuzoi Rusin\u00eb me pretekstin se po organizonte dhe mb\u00ebshteste aktivisht fluksin n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve q\u00eb p\u00ebrmes \u201crrug\u00ebve arktike<\/a>\u201d synonin t\u00eb dep\u00ebrtonin n\u00eb Finland\u00eb. Ky veprim dukej se b\u00ebhej si hakmarrje e Mosk\u00ebs p\u00ebr sanksionet ekonomike q\u00eb Bashkimi Evropian i kishte v\u00ebn\u00eb\u00a0Rusis\u00eb<\/a>\u00a0p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb veprimeve t\u00eb saj t\u00eb paligjshme ushtarake n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Dihej fare mir\u00eb se e vetmja form\u00eb q\u00eb emigrant\u00ebt t\u00eb mund t\u00eb arrinin n\u00eb kufirin finlandez ishte vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse Sh\u00ebrbimi Federal i Siguris\u00eb s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb do t\u2019ua mund\u00ebsonte atyre t\u00eb dep\u00ebrtonin p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb rajoni t\u00eb rreziksh\u00ebm dhe tejet t\u00eb\u00a0militarizuar<\/a>, e q\u00eb praktikisht ishte i pamundur t\u00eb penetrohej nga persona civil\u00eb. Kjo n\u00ebnkupton se Rusia ishte drejtp\u00ebrdrejt e p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb leht\u00ebsimin e dep\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb fluksit t\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve p\u00ebr n\u00eb Finland\u00eb. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, gjat\u00eb kriz\u00ebs m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb migracionit t\u00eb vitit 2015-2016, presidenti turk Rexhep Erdogan i b\u00ebri presion BE-s\u00eb q\u00eb ta mb\u00ebshtes\u00eb Ankaran\u00eb me rreth\u00a0gjasht\u00eb miliard\u00eb<\/a>\u00a0euro ndihm\u00eb, n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb bllokimit t\u00eb korridorit t\u00eb migracionit nga Lindja e Mesme p\u00ebr n\u00eb Ballkan.<\/p>\n Gjithashtu, duhet rikujtuar se presidenti Putin, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb migrimit si k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim hibrid, \u00ebsht\u00eb i njohur n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn e tij p\u00ebr aplikimin e mjeteve t\u00eb nduarndurta t\u00eb\u00a0luft\u00ebs hibride<\/a>\u00a0q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb kombinimin e sulmeve kibernetike, fushatave dezinformuese p\u00ebrmes p\u00ebrhapjes t\u00eb q\u00ebllimshme t\u00eb lajmeve t\u00eb rreme dhe infiltrimit n\u00eb vende si Ukraina, respektivisht n\u00eb Krime, t\u00eb ushtar\u00ebve rus\u00eb t\u00eb armatosur, por t\u00eb kamufluar me uniforma civile dhe q\u00eb hiqen si fshatar\u00eb vendas. Ka dyshime t\u00eb bazuara se edhe\u00a0n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast<\/a>, p\u00ebrmes Bjellorusis\u00eb, n\u00eb grupin e emigranteve Moska po kontrabandon agjent\u00eb sekret\u00eb t\u00eb tyre, apo edhe terrorist\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb si synim destabilizimin e vendeve t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" N\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrvarur, luft\u00ebrat nd\u00ebrshtet\u00ebrore me arm\u00eb konvencionale duket se jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb kushtueshme, si n\u00eb aspektin ekonomik, ashtu edhe n\u00eb at\u00eb politik e diplomatik. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, ka koh\u00eb q\u00eb shtetet po p\u00ebrdorin nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb mjetesh dhe metodash atipike dhe hibride \u2013 t\u00eb cilat leht\u00ebsisht mund t\u00eb konvertohen n\u00eb arm\u00eb \u2013 duke […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":402,"featured_media":1428,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[735,672,687],"ppma_author":[688],"class_list":["post-1431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-emigration","tag-eu","tag-foreign-policy"],"authors":[{"term_id":688,"user_id":402,"is_guest":0,"slug":"alfred-marleku","display_name":"Alfred Marleku","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/IMG_0067-min-scaled-1-e1725456797811.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/IMG_0067-min-scaled-1-e1725456797811.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Marleku","first_name":"Alfred","description":"Alfred Marleku ka p\u00ebrfunduar studimet bachelor, master dhe ato t\u00eb doktorat\u00ebs n\u00eb shkenca politike. Aktualisht \u00ebsht\u00eb ligj\u00ebrues n\u00eb Kolegjin \u201cUBT\u201d, Fakultetin e Shkencave Politike.\r\n\r\nP\u00ebr shum\u00eb vjet ka punuar si menaxher i projekteve t\u00eb ndryshme t\u00eb financuara nga Komisioni Evropian, USAID-i, Ambasada Amerikane etj., t\u00eb cilat fokusohen, kryesisht, n\u00eb reformat e arsimit t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim dhe zhvillim (R&D); kthimin e trurit; zhvillimin e plan-programeve n\u00eb harmoni me nevojat e tregut etj. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb ka qen\u00eb i angazhuar edhe n\u00eb sektorin publik si k\u00ebshilltar politik n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e bashk\u00ebpunimit juridik nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/402"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1431"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1431\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1432,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1431\/revisions\/1432"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1428"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1431"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=1431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}