{"id":1507,"date":"2020-12-02T17:02:30","date_gmt":"2020-12-02T16:02:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=1507"},"modified":"2023-12-11T15:07:14","modified_gmt":"2023-12-11T14:07:14","slug":"dhe-si-ne-cdo-krize-tjeter-ka-edhe-fitues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/dhe-si-ne-cdo-krize-tjeter-ka-edhe-fitues\/","title":{"rendered":"Dhe si n\u00eb \u00e7do kriz\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, ka edhe fitues"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00cbsht\u00eb mjaft e qart\u00eb se pse bankat n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb ken\u00eb fitim t\u00eb madh vit pas viti, e edhe n\u00eb koh\u00eb kur sektor\u00ebt tjer\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb. Ndon\u00ebse kemi norm\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb kredive t\u00eb k\u00ebqija n\u00eb rajon, depozitat kan\u00eb kaluar vler\u00ebn e 4 miliard\u00eb eurove duke sh\u00ebnuar rekord k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, bankat kan\u00eb rreth 47% m\u00eb shum\u00eb rezerva se q\u00eb i obligon BQK-ja, normat e interesit n\u00eb kredi vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb mbesin m\u00eb t\u00eb lartat n\u00eb rajon. Teksa fetishizohet konkurrenca si virtyti kryesor i tregut t\u00eb lir\u00eb, 3 bankat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha posedojn\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjen m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb aseteve, krahasuar me vendet e rajonit (me p\u00ebrjashtim Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb). Por nj\u00eb gj\u00eb s\u2019\u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb: \u00e7far\u00eb b\u00ebn BQK-ja?<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa n\u00eb Recesionin e Madh 2007-09 ekonomia reale ishte goditur nga kriza financiare p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn, n\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb madhe, fajtore ishin bankat, n\u00eb kriz\u00ebn e shkaktuar nga pandemia Covid-19, barra nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb bartur anasjelltas. Ose, s\u00eb paku jo n\u00eb intensitetin q\u00eb kishte ndodhur at\u00ebher\u00eb. N\u00eb vazhdim\u00ebsi i kemi d\u00ebgjuar ankesat nga sektori i hoteleris\u00eb, restoranteve, dhe kafeneve. N\u00eb vazhdim\u00ebsi i kemi d\u00ebgjuar ankesat nga sektori i nd\u00ebrtimit. Nga tregtia me shumic\u00eb e pakic\u00eb. Po nga sektori financiar, konkretisht bankat?<\/p>\n

Ndon\u00ebse edhe aty ankesat mund t\u00eb mos mungojn\u00eb, statistikat e tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb narrativ\u00eb tjet\u00ebr.\u00a0Deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb tetorit 2020<\/a>, profiti neto i bankave ishte 65.5 milion\u00eb euro, nd\u00ebrsa ai i institucioneve mikrofinanciare 7.3 milion\u00eb euro. Natyrisht se n\u00eb t\u00eb dy rastet profiti neto ishte m\u00eb i vog\u00ebl se n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar, ku bankat kishin nj\u00eb profit neto prej 75 milion\u00eb euro, nd\u00ebrsa institucionet mikrofinanciare 9.9 milion\u00eb euro. Por, larg humbjeve q\u00eb kan\u00eb ndodhur apo pritet t\u00eb ndodhin n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Ta z\u00ebm\u00eb, n\u00eb sektorin real, nga marsi deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb shtatorit,\u00a0ATK-ja kishte vler\u00ebsuar<\/a>\u00a0r\u00ebnie t\u00eb qarkullimit t\u00eb bizneseve prej rreth 1 miliard euro. Apo, t\u2019i z\u00ebm\u00eb\u00a0p\u00ebrllogaritjet<\/a>\u00a0p\u00ebr humbjen e vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs t\u00eb cilat, n\u00eb skenar\u00eb real, vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb rreth 29 mij\u00eb vende pune t\u00eb humbura.<\/p>\n

Me siguri se n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb dikush do t\u00eb mendoj\u00eb se problemi i shtruar deri k\u00ebtu \u00ebsht\u00eb problem i smir\u00ebs dhe i xhelozis\u00eb: pse edhe bankat nuk jan\u00eb duke humbur si pjesa tjet\u00ebr e ekonomis\u00eb sepse edhe ato duhet t\u00eb humbin? Kjo natyrisht se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtja e as pyetja q\u00eb synon ky shkrim. N\u00eb fakt, pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb kjo: si u b\u00eb q\u00eb edhe n\u00eb koh\u00eb krize po fitojn\u00eb k\u00ebshtu bankat? P\u00ebrgjigjen p\u00ebr profitin e lart\u00eb n\u00eb sektorin bankar p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr humbjeve p\u00ebrreth e gjejm\u00eb kryesisht tek kushtet paraekzistuese. Kriza ekonomike, si me shum\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje tjera, ve\u00e7 po i nxjerr n\u00eb pah problemet sistemike q\u00eb kan\u00eb ekzistuar edhe para saj.<\/p>\n

Sfidat e kthimit t\u00eb k\u00ebsteve t\u00eb kredive jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshme p\u00ebr shumic\u00ebn e qytetar\u00ebve t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs. Sipas\u00a0anket\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit mbi t\u00eb ardhurat dhe kushtet e jetes\u00ebs<\/a>, t\u00eb realizuar nga ASK p\u00ebr vitin 2018, 91% e ekonomive familjare e konsiderojn\u00eb barr\u00eb kthimin e kredive. Konkretisht, p\u00ebr 29.7% kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb deri diku barr\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebr 61.3% \u00ebsht\u00eb barr\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00eb. Kujtojm\u00eb se k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb 2018 norma efektive e interesit n\u00eb kredit\u00eb e ekonomive familjare ishte 7.2%. Megjithat\u00eb n\u00eb po k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, p\u00ebrqindja e kredive joperformuese apo kredive t\u00eb k\u00ebqija ishte vet\u00ebm 2.7%. Kredi t\u00eb k\u00ebqija cil\u00ebsohen ato kredi p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat kthimi \u00ebsht\u00eb a) vonuar p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 90 dit\u00eb dhe\/ose b) vler\u00ebsuar si i pamundur. Pra, ndon\u00ebse p\u00ebr 91% t\u00eb ekonomive familjare kthimi i kredis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb barr\u00eb, n\u00eb 2018, 97.3% e kredive iu ishin kthyer bankave me rregull.<\/p>\n

In the latest\u00a02019<\/a>\u00a0situata \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb. Norma e kredive joperformuese ka qen\u00eb vet\u00ebm 2%, pra p\u00ebr 0.7 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt se vitin paraprak. Madje n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb, bankat nga Kosova e z\u00ebn\u00eb vendin e par\u00eb mes 6 vendeve t\u00eb Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor. Qytetar\u00ebt e Kosov\u00ebs jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb disiplinuarit n\u00eb kthimin e kredive.<\/p>\n

Por, bankat n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb e z\u00ebn\u00eb vendin e par\u00eb edhe p\u00ebr nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje tjet\u00ebr. Ato kan\u00eb normat m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb kredi. N\u00eb vitin 2019, norma efektive e interesit, p\u00ebr ekonomit\u00eb familjare dhe nd\u00ebrmarrjet, ishte 6.5%. N\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha 5 vendet tjera t\u00eb Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor, normat efektive t\u00eb interesit ishin m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta se n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb. Detajet krahasuese jan\u00eb paraqitur n\u00eb figur\u00ebn posht\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

Por, mbase kriza do t\u2019duhej t\u00eb kishte efekte t\u00eb ndryshme n\u00eb k\u00ebta dy indikator\u00eb? P\u00ebr shembull, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs, qytetar\u00ebt e kan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb kthimin e kredive dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye norma e kredive joperformuese do t\u2019duhej rritur. Kjo do ta rriste rrezikun p\u00ebr kthimin e kredive, me rast me t\u00eb cilin bankat do t\u2019i rrisnin normat e interesit. Por, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb r\u00ebnies s\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave si pasoj\u00eb e kriz\u00ebs, ata do t\u2019kishin m\u00eb pak k\u00ebrkes\u00eb p\u00ebr kredi t\u00eb reja. T\u00eb ardhurat q\u00eb i kan\u00eb do t\u2019i kursenin, me \u00e7\u2019rast depozitat do t\u00eb rriteshin. Me m\u00eb pak k\u00ebrkes\u00eb p\u00ebr kredi dhe me m\u00eb shum\u00eb depozita n\u00eb banka, pastaj bankat do t\u2019duhej t\u2019i ulnin normat e interesit n\u00eb kredi, apo jo? Jo bash. Kjo analiz\u00eb q\u00eb mund ta hasim n\u00eb kapitujt mbi skenar\u00ebt q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodhin gjat\u00eb krizave ekonomike n\u00eb librat e ekonomiksit \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse e sakt\u00eb\u2026por vet\u00ebm pothuajse.<\/p>\n

Po, norma e kredive joperformuese \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur gjat\u00eb vitit 2020, por shum\u00eb pak. Deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb tetorit 2020, ajo ka arritur n\u00eb 2.7% \u2013 sa ishte n\u00eb vitin 2018 kur nuk kishte kriz\u00eb ekonomike. P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsive financiare, s\u00ebrish 97.3% e kredive kan\u00eb performuar konform rregullave. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb tetorit 2020 vlera e kredive t\u00eb reja ishte p\u00ebr 7% m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb t\u00eb vitit paraprak. Pra, k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr kredi nuk ka r\u00ebn\u00eb por \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur; me k\u00ebt\u00eb rast fitimi i bankave ka vazhduar p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr kriz\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr r\u00ebnies s\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave t\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve, depozitat kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar nj\u00eb rritje vjetore prej 8.7%, duke sh\u00ebnuar vler\u00ebn rekord prej mbi 4 miliard\u00eb euro. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb norma e rezerv\u00ebs s\u00eb obliguar \u00a0ishte 14.7%. \u00c7ka n\u00ebnkupton kjo? N\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb\u00a0ligjit p\u00ebr BQK-n\u00eb<\/a>, bankat n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb duhet t\u00eb posedojn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb rezervave t\u00eb obliguara n\u00eb raport m\u00eb depozitat. Rezerva e obliguar tek ne \u00ebsht\u00eb 10%, por deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb tetorit 2020 bankat kan\u00eb pasur 14.7% rezerva n\u00eb raport me depozitat. Pra ato kishin rreth 47% m\u00eb shum\u00eb rezerva se norma minimale e k\u00ebrkuar, q\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton tepric\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb jepet si kredi. Meq\u00eb ka tepric\u00eb, bankat do t\u2019duhej t\u2019i ulnin normat e interesit n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb kredit\u00eb t\u00eb ishin m\u00eb t\u00eb leverdishme. Por, ato nuk e kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb mas\u00ebn q\u00eb do t\u2019duhej b\u00ebr\u00eb. Norma efektive e interesit deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb tetorit 2020 ka qen\u00eb mesatarisht 6.3% – vet\u00ebm 0.2 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje apo rreth 3.1% m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl se n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar (apo gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb vitit 2019).<\/p>\n

Ajo q\u00eb ka ndodhur n\u00eb sektorin bankar gjat\u00eb k\u00ebsaj krize \u00ebsht\u00eb kjo: rreziku p\u00ebr moskthimin e kredive nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur si\u00e7 mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00eb krizash, k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr kredi ka sh\u00ebnuar rritje, qytetar\u00ebt kan\u00eb kursyer m\u00eb shum\u00eb duke sh\u00ebnuar rekord t\u00eb depozitave bankare, bankat kan\u00eb tepric\u00eb t\u00eb mjeteve q\u00eb do t\u2019mund t\u2019jepeshin si kredi, nd\u00ebrsa normat efektive t\u00eb interesit jan\u00eb ulur shum\u00eb pak. Rrjedhimisht, deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb tetorit, fitimi i tyre neto ishte 65.5 milion\u00eb euro.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa mosndikimin p\u00ebr uljen e normave t\u00eb interesit dikush mund ta arsyetoj\u00eb duke th\u00ebn\u00eb se ato i p\u00ebrcakton tregu, e v\u00ebrejm\u00eb se virtyti kryesor q\u00eb i atribuohet tregut, i.e. konkurrenca, \u00ebsht\u00eb i kontestuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

Si\u00e7 mund ta shohim nga figura lart, n\u00eb vitin 2019, Kosova kishte numrin m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb bankave n\u00eb treg krahasuar me vendet e rajonit. Nd\u00ebrsa, pas Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, koncentrimi i kapitalit n\u00eb 3 bankat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha ishte m\u00eb i larti. Tri bankat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb zot\u00ebronin 56.9% t\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha aseteve n\u00eb sektorin bankar. T\u00eb gjitha vendet e tjera n\u00eb rajon, kishin num\u00ebr m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb bankave dhe koncentrim m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb aseteve nga 3 bankat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha (me p\u00ebrjashtim Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb).<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb mjaft e qart\u00eb se pse bankat n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb ken\u00eb fitim t\u00eb madh vit pas viti, e edhe n\u00eb koh\u00eb kur sektor\u00ebt tjer\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb. Ndon\u00ebse kemi norm\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb kredive t\u00eb k\u00ebqija n\u00eb rajon, depozitat kan\u00eb kaluar vler\u00ebn e 4 miliard\u00eb eurove duke sh\u00ebnuar rekord k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, bankat kan\u00eb rreth 47% m\u00eb shum\u00eb rezerva se q\u00eb i obligon BQK-ja, normat e interesit n\u00eb kredi vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb mbesin m\u00eb t\u00eb lartat n\u00eb rajon. Teksa fetishizohet konkurrenca si virtyti kryesor i tregut t\u00eb lir\u00eb, 3 bankat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha posedojn\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjen m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb aseteve, krahasuar me vendet e rajonit (me p\u00ebrjashtim Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb). Por nj\u00eb gj\u00eb s\u2019\u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb: \u00e7far\u00eb b\u00ebn BQK-ja?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cbsht\u00eb mjaft e qart\u00eb se pse bankat n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb ken\u00eb fitim t\u00eb madh vit pas viti, e edhe n\u00eb koh\u00eb kur sektor\u00ebt tjer\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb. Ndon\u00ebse kemi norm\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb kredive t\u00eb k\u00ebqija n\u00eb rajon, depozitat kan\u00eb kaluar vler\u00ebn e 4 miliard\u00eb eurove duke sh\u00ebnuar rekord k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1510,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[691,664],"ppma_author":[97],"class_list":["post-1507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-economy","tag-kosovo"],"authors":[{"term_id":97,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"edison-jakurti","display_name":"Edison Jakurti","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Edison-Jakurti.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Edison-Jakurti.jpeg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","description":"Edison Jakurti \u00ebsht\u00eb doktorant i shkencave ekonomike n\u00eb Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin. M\u00eb her\u00ebt ai i ka p\u00ebrfunduar studimet e nivelit master p\u00ebr politikat e zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, me fokus n\u00eb ekonomiksin aplikativ, n\u00eb Duke University, dhe studimet themelore n\u00eb drejtimin ekonomiks dhe statistik\u00eb n\u00eb R.I.T. Ka punuar si asistent hulumtues dhe asistent ligj\u00ebrues n\u00eb Duke University, si dhe k\u00ebshilltar n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn Bot\u00ebrore."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1507"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1511,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1507\/revisions\/1511"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1507"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=1507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}