{"id":1578,"date":"2020-08-13T14:57:44","date_gmt":"2020-08-13T13:57:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=1578"},"modified":"2023-12-18T15:11:16","modified_gmt":"2023-12-18T14:11:16","slug":"ndikimi-i-mundshem-i-covid-19-ne-papunesi-ne-kosove-nje-analize-permes-skenareve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/ndikimi-i-mundshem-i-covid-19-ne-papunesi-ne-kosove-nje-analize-permes-skenareve\/","title":{"rendered":"Ndikimi i mundsh\u00ebm i COVID-19 n\u00eb papun\u00ebsi n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb: nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb p\u00ebrmes skenar\u00ebve"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kosova ka problem kronik me papun\u00ebsin\u00eb strukturore meq\u00eb ekziston nj\u00eb hendek mes shkatht\u00ebsive t\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve dhe k\u00ebrkesave n\u00eb tregun e pun\u00ebs. Por, si pasoj\u00eb e kriz\u00ebs ekonomike, t\u00eb nxitur nga pandemia COVID-19, do t\u00eb kemi problem edhe me papun\u00ebsin\u00eb ciklike \u2013 meq\u00eb do t\u00eb kemi r\u00ebnie ekonomike. Gjithashtu, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 vendeve aktuale t\u00eb pun\u00ebs q\u00eb do t\u00eb humbin, do t\u00eb ket\u00eb humbje t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs q\u00eb do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb krijoheshin n\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Deri tani nuk kemi treguar pothuajse asgj\u00eb t\u00eb re. \u00c7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb se sa do t\u00eb jet\u00eb ndikimi i kriz\u00ebs n\u00eb vendet e pun\u00ebs dhe, rrjedhimisht, n\u00eb papun\u00ebsi? K\u00ebt\u00eb aktualisht nuk mund ta thot\u00eb askush me siguri. Sepse p\u00ebr t\u00eb duhen matje si ato q\u00eb b\u00ebhen p\u00ebrmes\u00a0Anket\u00ebs s\u00eb Fuqis\u00eb Pun\u00ebtore<\/a>\u00a0nga Agjencia e Statistikave t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs (ASK), t\u00eb cilat ende nuk jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Ligji i Okunit n\u00eb rastin e Kosov\u00ebs nuk q\u00ebndron<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb tyre pastaj lindin shum\u00eb spekulime e llogari kuturu q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb kuptim. Ta z\u00ebm\u00eb, v\u00ebrehet nj\u00eb tendenc\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoret\u00a0Ligji i Okunit<\/a>\u00a0si metod\u00eb p\u00ebr ta parashikuar ndikimin e pandemis\u00eb n\u00eb papun\u00ebsi. Ligji i Okunit, i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb si nj\u00eblloj rregulli empirik sesa si ligj n\u00eb kuptimin e mir\u00ebfillt\u00eb t\u00eb fjal\u00ebs, sot interpretohet si raporti n\u00eb mes t\u00eb prodhimit dhe papun\u00ebsis\u00eb, ku rritja prej 1% e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb rezulton n\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej 2% t\u00eb Bruto Produktit Vendor potencial.<\/p>\n

In the latest\u00a0punimin origjinal<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb Arthur Melvin Okun-it, q\u00eb ishte ekonomist amerikan, ai konkludon se rritja e prodhimit p\u00ebr 2% rezulton n\u00eb zvog\u00eblimin e shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb ciklike p\u00ebr 1%, rritjen e pjes\u00ebmarrjes n\u00eb fuqin\u00eb pun\u00ebtore p\u00ebr 0.5%, rritjen prej 0.5% n\u00eb or\u00ebt e pun\u00ebs p\u00ebr pun\u00ebtor\u00eb, dhe rritje prej 1% e prodhimit p\u00ebr or\u00eb pune, q\u00eb ndryshe njihet si produktiviteti i pun\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Por, si\u00e7 shihet n\u00eb Figur\u00ebn 1 m\u00eb posht\u00eb, ky \u201cligj\u201d nuk q\u00ebndron n\u00eb rastin e Kosov\u00ebs. Sepse, po t\u00eb q\u00ebndronte, at\u00ebher\u00eb raporti mes rritjes reale ekonomike dhe ndryshimit t\u00eb norm\u00ebs s\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb ishte 2 (n\u00eb vler\u00eb absolute).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

Figura 1.<\/strong>\u00a0V\u00ebrtetimi se Ligji i Okunit n\u00eb rastin e Kosov\u00ebs nuk q\u00ebndron<\/p>\n

Gjithashtu, ndon\u00ebse me m\u00eb pak observime se numri minimal i k\u00ebrkuar, p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb analize t\u00eb thjesht\u00eb t\u00eb regresionit linear, mund t\u00eb v\u00ebrtetohet fare leht\u00eb se raporti mes k\u00ebtyre dy variablave, n\u00eb rastin e Kosov\u00ebs, nuk ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi statistikore.<\/p>\n

Rrjedhimisht, \u00e7far\u00ebdo parashikimi p\u00ebrhumbjen e vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs dhe papun\u00ebsin\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, i cili bazohet n\u00eb Ligjin e Okunit, \u00ebsht\u00eb empirikisht i pasakt\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Skenar\u00ebt e nd\u00ebrtuar nga masat e Qeveris\u00eb dhe pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb e bizneseve<\/strong><\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, duhet njohur se sfidat jan\u00eb n\u00eb parashikime. Kujtojm\u00eb se t\u00eb gjitha matjet\u00a0ex ante\u00a0<\/em>p\u00ebr humbjen e vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs si pasoj\u00eb e kriz\u00ebs ekonomike duhet lexuar n\u00eb drit\u00ebn e munges\u00ebs s\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave dhe pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb koh\u00ebzgjatjes s\u00eb pandemis\u00eb. Duke e pasur k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb mendje, me gjith\u00eb rrezikun e ndryshimeve t\u00eb mundshme, aktualisht vler\u00ebsimi m\u00eb i mir\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet \u00ebsht\u00eb ai n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb ndikimit t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb pasur masat, q\u00eb ka marr\u00eb Qeveria p\u00ebr mbylljen e veprimtarive ekonomike (t\u00eb cilat ishin t\u00eb gjitha t\u00eb b\u00ebra\u00a0publike<\/a>) dhe t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave nga vet\u00eb bizneset p\u00ebr kapacitetet e tyre p\u00ebr ruajtjen e vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Kjo metod\u00eb, si gjith\u00eb t\u00eb tjerat, n\u00ebnkupton disa thjesht\u00ebzime. Ta z\u00ebm\u00eb, ne po e konsiderojm\u00eb q\u00eb vet\u00ebm ata q\u00eb jan\u00eb prekur drejtp\u00ebrdrejt nga masat mund ta humbin vendin e pun\u00ebs. Gjithashtu, po i marrim si t\u00eb sakta p\u00ebrgjigjet q\u00eb bizneset i kan\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb rreth ndikimit q\u00eb presin ta ket\u00eb pandemia n\u00eb vendet e pun\u00ebs. Sidoqoft\u00eb, duhet kuptuar se nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb e till\u00eb nuk synon q\u00eb t\u00eb tregoj\u00eb me siguri se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb me papun\u00ebsin\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, por se \u00e7far\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00ebse k\u00ebta skenar\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Masat m\u00eb rigoroze t\u00eb Qeveris\u00eb q\u00eb jan\u00eb marr\u00eb kah mesi i muajit prill, t\u00eb cilat kan\u00eb zgjatur rreth tre jav\u00eb, kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb q\u00eb 64.3 mij\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb t\u00eb ndikohen drejtp\u00ebrdrejt (e. g. t\u00eb mos dalin n\u00eb pun\u00eb, t\u2019u thuhet q\u00eb t\u00eb punojn\u00eb nga sht\u00ebpia, etj.). Ky num\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb llogaritur n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave p\u00ebr pun\u00ebsim nga Administrata Tatimore e Kosov\u00ebs (ATK) p\u00ebr muajin janar 2020. Nd\u00ebrsa, n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb ASK-s\u00eb, numri i t\u00eb ndikuarve drejtp\u00ebrdrejt del t\u00eb jet\u00eb rreth 144.1 mij\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Jan\u00eb dy arsye kryesore se pse numri i t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuarve q\u00eb raporton ASK dhe ATK dallon. Fillimisht, p\u00ebr shkak se t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e ASK-s\u00eb p\u00ebr tregun e pun\u00ebs b\u00ebhen p\u00ebrmes pyet\u00ebsor\u00ebve (i.e.\u00a0survey data<\/em>), nd\u00ebrsa ATK e b\u00ebn p\u00ebrmes pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve t\u00eb regjistruar (i.e.\u00a0administrative data<\/em>). Pra, p\u00ebrderisa n\u00eb ATK pun\u00ebtori \u00ebsht\u00eb em\u00ebr i p\u00ebrve\u00e7\u00ebm, n\u00eb ASK \u00ebsht\u00eb most\u00ebr p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuese e nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb. Dhe, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb metodologjis\u00eb, i bie q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e ASK-s\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihet edhe informaliteti, gj\u00eb q\u00eb duhet marr\u00eb parasysh. Dhe, meq\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e ASK-s\u00eb dhe jo ATK-s\u00eb ato q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb papun\u00ebsin\u00eb, n\u00eb vijim do t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren vet\u00ebm t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat nga ASK.<\/p>\n

Gjithashtu, n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb\u00a0pyet\u00ebsori<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb realizuar mes 1-15 prill, nga Business Support Center Kosovo (BSCK), 12% e bizneseve kan\u00eb deklaruar se ve\u00e7se kan\u00eb larguar pun\u00ebtor\u00eb nga puna, 20% do t\u00eb largonin n\u00ebse masat zgjasin deri n\u00eb 1 muaj, dhe 40% do t\u00eb largonin n\u00ebse masat zgjasin 1-3 muaj.<\/p>\n

Duhet theksuar se ky pyet\u00ebsor ka mang\u00ebsi metodologjike, duke marr\u00eb parasysh madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e mostr\u00ebs (i.e. vet\u00ebm 250 biznese), m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn e p\u00ebrzgjedhjes s\u00eb bizneseve (i.e. p\u00ebrmes rast\u00ebsis\u00eb duke d\u00ebrguar nj\u00eb link, pa stratifikim q\u00eb do ta paraqiste m\u00eb sakt\u00eb demografin\u00eb e popullsis\u00eb), dhe koh\u00ebn kur \u00ebsht\u00eb realizuar.<\/p>\n

Por, meq\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebr pyet\u00ebsor\u00ebt e rrall\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebrmban pyetje rreth pritshm\u00ebrive p\u00ebr ndikimin n\u00eb vendet e pun\u00ebs, dhe duke e ditur q\u00eb disa masa ende po vazhdojn\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb mund ta p\u00ebrdorim gjithnj\u00eb duke i pasur parasysh t\u00eb metat e tij. K\u00ebshtu, mund t\u2019i ri-interpretojm\u00eb k\u00ebto p\u00ebrqindje dhe t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtojm\u00eb tre skenar\u00eb (i.e.\u00a0optimist, realist, pesimist<\/em>) ku e llogaritim se sa mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb ndikimi i pandemis\u00eb n\u00eb papun\u00ebsi n\u00ebse 12%, 20%, dhe 40% e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve, t\u00eb ndikuar drejtp\u00ebrdrejt nga masat, do ta humbnin vendin e pun\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb skenarin optimist, n\u00ebse 12% e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve t\u00eb ndikuar drejtp\u00ebrdrejt do t\u00eb largoheshin nga puna, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte rreth 17.3 mij\u00eb sosh. N\u00eb skenarin realist, n\u00ebse 20% e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve t\u00eb ndikuar drejtp\u00ebrdrejt do t\u00eb largoheshin nga puna, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte rreth 28.8 mij\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb skenarin pesimist, n\u00ebse 40% e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve t\u00eb ndikuar drejtp\u00ebrdrejt do t\u00eb largoheshin nga puna, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte rreth 57.6 mij\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, duhet t\u2019i kemi parasysh vendet e pun\u00ebs q\u00eb do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb krijoheshin po mos t\u2019ishte pandemia. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb kostoja oportune nga perspektiva e tregut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs. N\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb trendit t\u00eb pun\u00ebsimit neto gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 2013-2019, mund ta parashikojm\u00eb se, n\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb, gjat\u00eb vitit 2020 do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb ishin pun\u00ebsuar 10.9 mij\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz se n\u00eb vitin 2019.<\/p>\n

Ndikimi i mundsh\u00ebm n\u00eb papun\u00ebsi<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thon\u00eb k\u00ebta skenar\u00eb p\u00ebr papun\u00ebsin\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb? N\u00ebse nuk e komplikojm\u00eb analiz\u00ebn edhe me vendet e pun\u00ebs q\u00eb do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb krijoheshin, dhe merremi vet\u00ebm me tre skenar\u00ebt e nd\u00ebrtuar, at\u00ebher\u00eb Tabela 1 m\u00eb posht\u00eb tregon se si do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb dukej papun\u00ebsia n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2020.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/div>\n

Tabela 1.<\/strong>\u00a0Skenar\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm t\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2020<\/p>\n

Si\u00e7 shihet nga Tabela 1, papun\u00ebsia e p\u00ebrgjithshme, krahasuar me vitin 2019, do t\u2019mund t\u00eb rritej p\u00ebr 13.8%, 23% apo 46% – var\u00ebsisht prej skenar\u00ebve. Kjo do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte se papun\u00ebsia n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit do t\u2019mund t\u00eb ishte, 29%, 31.3% apo 37.2%. Duhet shtuar se n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb analiz\u00eb merret p\u00ebr baz\u00eb gjendja n\u00eb vitin 2019 dhe, p\u00ebr ta thjesht\u00ebzuar, nuk merren parasysh ndryshimet e tjera n\u00eb tregun e pun\u00ebs, gj\u00eb q\u00eb natyrisht p\u00ebrb\u00ebn mang\u00ebsi.<\/p>\n

Nga nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb gjinore mund ta shohim se ndryshimi n\u00eb papun\u00ebsi mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i madh t\u00eb burrat p\u00ebr shkak se baza e t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuarve n\u00eb vitin 2019 ishte m\u00eb e madhe. Nd\u00ebrsa, p\u00ebrqindja e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb secilin skenar del se mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe te grat\u00eb se t\u00eb burrat. S\u00ebrish, kjo ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me faktin se papun\u00ebsia n\u00eb vitin 2019 ishte m\u00eb e madhe t\u00eb grat\u00eb se te burrat. Dhe, sepse n\u00eb t\u00eb tri skenar\u00ebt proporcionet e ndikimit (i.e. 12%, 20%, dhe 40%) nuk dallojn\u00eb mes burrave dhe grave.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00ebmend k\u00ebto shifra jan\u00eb shum\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuese n\u00eb vete, e edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb kur kihet parasysh se k\u00ebto mund t\u2019i shtohen problemeve ekzistuese me papun\u00ebsin\u00eb strukturore. Por, natyrisht se duhet kuptuar se k\u00ebto p\u00ebrqindje derivojn\u00eb nga nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb\u00a0ex ante<\/em>, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb po aq e mir\u00eb sa supozimet mbi t\u00eb cilat \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar. Si e till\u00eb, kjo na tregon vet\u00ebm se \u00e7far\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb. Se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb, duhet pritur p\u00ebr matjet nga terreni e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat zyrtare.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kosova ka problem kronik me papun\u00ebsin\u00eb strukturore meq\u00eb ekziston nj\u00eb hendek mes shkatht\u00ebsive t\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve dhe k\u00ebrkesave n\u00eb tregun e pun\u00ebs. Por, si pasoj\u00eb e kriz\u00ebs ekonomike, t\u00eb nxitur nga pandemia COVID-19, do t\u00eb kemi problem edhe me papun\u00ebsin\u00eb ciklike \u2013 meq\u00eb do t\u00eb kemi r\u00ebnie ekonomike. Gjithashtu, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 vendeve aktuale t\u00eb pun\u00ebs q\u00eb do […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1581,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[646,664,776],"ppma_author":[97],"class_list":["post-1578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-covid-19","tag-kosovo","tag-unemployment"],"authors":[{"term_id":97,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"edison-jakurti","display_name":"Edison Jakurti","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Edison-Jakurti.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Edison-Jakurti.jpeg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","description":"Edison Jakurti \u00ebsht\u00eb doktorant i shkencave ekonomike n\u00eb Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin. M\u00eb her\u00ebt ai i ka p\u00ebrfunduar studimet e nivelit master p\u00ebr politikat e zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, me fokus n\u00eb ekonomiksin aplikativ, n\u00eb Duke University, dhe studimet themelore n\u00eb drejtimin ekonomiks dhe statistik\u00eb n\u00eb R.I.T. Ka punuar si asistent hulumtues dhe asistent ligj\u00ebrues n\u00eb Duke University, si dhe k\u00ebshilltar n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn Bot\u00ebrore."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1578"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1582,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1578\/revisions\/1582"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1578"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=1578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}