Ndon\u00ebse pritet q\u00eb marr\u00ebveshja p\u00ebr programin b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit do t\u2019i hapte rrug\u00ebn nj\u00eb epoke balancimi m\u00eb paq\u00ebsor t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, fitorja e Trumpit n\u00eb ShBA mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb paqart\u00ebsi. Marr\u00ebveshja p\u00ebrb\u00ebn triumf t\u00eb doktrin\u00ebs s\u00eb internacionalizmit liberal t\u00eb rendit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, t\u00eb mish\u00ebruar konceptualisht n\u00eb sistemin e OKB-s\u00eb. P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr frik\u00ebs se populizmi \u2018anti-elit\u00eb\u2019 n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim mund ta minoj\u00eb, ky rend edhe m\u00eb tej do t\u00eb determinoj\u00eb institucionalizimin e rendit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar dhe t\u00eb raportit t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb mes shteteve n\u00eb rajon dhe me fuqi t\u00eb tjera. S\u00eb k\u00ebndejmi, i qeverisur nga nj\u00eb regjim joliberal, Irani vepron n\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis m\u00eb kompleks n\u00eb synimet e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb thyer izolimin dhe p\u00ebr ta shfryt\u00ebzuar fuqin\u00eb e tij p\u00ebr t\u2019u kthyer n\u00eb hegjemon rajonal. Sipas konceptimit t\u00eb Saul Bernard Cohen, koheziviteti politik si burim fuqie k\u00ebrkon qeverisje kohezive, e cila t\u00eb shihet si model i suksessh\u00ebm q\u00eb ia vlen t\u00eb ndiqet. Bazuar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb p\u00ebrkufizim dhe n\u00eb historin\u00eb politike t\u00eb Iranit, ku q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb dob\u00ebsit\u00eb e ambicieve t\u00eb tij hegjemoniste?<\/p>\n
N\u00eb nivel global t\u00eb analiz\u00ebs, doktrina e internacionalizimit liberal ka n\u00eb thelb t\u00eb saj nd\u00ebrhyrjen n\u00eb sovranitetin e nj\u00eb shteti. Q\u00eb nga r\u00ebnia e Perandoris\u00eb Osmane, rendi nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme karakterizohet me nd\u00ebrhyrje nga fuqi liberale e joliberale, me objektiva p\u00ebrfundimtare t\u00eb ngjashme. Liberal\u00ebt, t\u00eb motivuar kryesisht nga vlera, synojn\u00eb liberalizimin politik dhe ekonomik. Joliberal\u00ebt, t\u00eb motivuar ekskluzivisht nga interesa, ndjekin objektiva liberal\u00eb vet\u00ebm ekonomik\u00eb, t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb lir\u00eb. Irani vepron n\u00eb rajon kryesisht n\u00eb shp\u00ebrputhje me t\u00eb dyja k\u00ebto. Revolucioni Islamik, si reaksion i dhunsh\u00ebm antiPer\u00ebndimor, ka z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb regjim autoritar laik q\u00eb synonte modernizimin e shpejt\u00eb me nj\u00eb regjim teokratik, t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr nga nj\u00eb elit\u00eb fetare radikale, thell\u00ebsisht konservatore, q\u00eb ndjek objektiva ekskluzivisht ideologjik\u00eb: dominimin shiit, p\u00ebrjet\u00ebsimin dhe p\u00ebrhapjen e sundimit sipas sheriatit, t\u00eb portretizuar si \u2018demokraci islame\u2019. Megjithat\u00eb, Irani ka krijuar aleanca politike kund\u00ebrth\u00ebn\u00ebse \u2013 me shtete shiite dhe sunite, Sirin\u00eb dhe Irakun, t\u00eb dy shtete t\u00eb dob\u00ebt; dhe me joshtete t\u00eb dhunsh\u00ebm, Hezbollahun n\u00eb Liban, Hamasin n\u00eb territoret palestineze dhe Huthit n\u00eb Jemen \u2013 por gjithashtu marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie t\u00eb mira me shtetet arabe p\u00ebrve\u00e7 Arabis\u00eb Saudite dhe Bahrejnit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb rrug\u00ebn e daljes nga izolimi, Irani ka dy opsione. N\u00ebse zgjedh ambiguitetin n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet me fuqi globale t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb rajon, pra afrimin politik e ekonomik me ShBA-n\u00eb duke ruajtur marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet e ngushta politike e ekonomike me fuqit\u00eb autoritare si Rusia e Kina, fuqia potenciale q\u00eb i ka sjell\u00eb marr\u00ebveshja mbi programin b\u00ebrthamor mund t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb dob\u00ebsi. Kjo pasi q\u00eb ambiguiteti do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb sillte p\u00ebrplasje modelesh t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt konceptual\u00eb t\u00eb rivendosjes s\u00eb rendit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar n\u00eb rajon dhe ashp\u00ebrsimin e konkurrenc\u00ebs mes vendeve t\u00eb tij dhe mes fuqive globale liberale e joliberale rreth tij.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, n\u00ebse ruan status quo-n\u00eb n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet me vendet e rajonit, fuqia potenciale e Iranit do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb kthehej n\u00eb dob\u00ebsi, pasi q\u00eb qasja e deritanishme utopike drejt hegjemonis\u00eb, n\u00eb nj\u00eb rajon t\u00eb dominuar nga teokraci sunite, p\u00ebrmes konfrontimit t\u00eb dhunsh\u00ebm me to dhe me superfuqin\u00eb globale, e ka izoluar politikisht e ekonomikisht. M\u00eb tej, thjesht si nj\u00eb teokraci m\u00eb shum\u00eb q\u00eb ndjek objektiva antiliberal\u00eb \u2013 sundim autoritar brenda vendit dhe politik\u00eb t\u00eb jashtme konfrontuese \u2013 Irani do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb mos shihet si model i suksessh\u00ebm q\u00eb ia vlen t\u00eb ndiqet. Ndjekja e objektivave antiliberale \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb si dob\u00ebsi drejt arritjes s\u00eb hegjemonis\u00eb, kurse marr\u00ebveshja, e bazuar n\u00eb objektiva liberale (me pjes\u00ebmarrjen e dy fuqive q\u00eb mbeten kategorikisht p\u00ebr mosnd\u00ebrhyrje n\u00eb sovranitet) t\u00eb parandalimit paq\u00ebsor t\u00eb konfliktit dhe liberalizimit ekonomik, do t\u2019i mund\u00ebsonte Iranit rrug\u00ebdalje nga izolimi politik, investime t\u00eb jashtme n\u00eb resurset natyrore e transferim teknologjie p\u00ebr zhvillim, dhe rrjedhimisht m\u00eb tep\u00ebr ndikim n\u00eb rajon.<\/p>\n
Politikisht, t\u00eb qenit shoq\u00ebri kulturalisht m\u00eb e emancipuar se t\u00eb tjerat n\u00eb rajon, p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb fuqi t\u00eb pashfryt\u00ebzuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb, por nj\u00eb Iran i ardhsh\u00ebm m\u00eb demokratik dhe m\u00eb liberal mbase do t\u00eb kthehej n\u00eb nj\u00eb \u2018hegjemon emancipues\u2019 atje. Por, regjimi islamik mund ta shoh\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb lloj evoluimi si dob\u00ebsi, pasi q\u00eb mund t\u00eb rrezikoj\u00eb sundimin e tij. Kjo na sjell te tensioni mes shoq\u00ebris\u00eb dhe regjimit iranian: sa m\u00eb e hapur shoq\u00ebria, aq m\u00eb pak i garantuar do t\u00eb jet\u00eb sundimi i elit\u00ebs islamike. Ky evoluim gjithashtu mund t\u00eb rrezikoj\u00eb, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb, kohezionin ekzistues politik, t\u00eb mbajtur me forc\u00eb nga regjimi, n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb kohezionit afatgjat\u00eb. Ekonomikisht, liberalizimi do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi p\u00ebr p\u00ebrpjekjet e Iranit p\u00ebr hegjemoni n\u00eb rajon, por mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb dob\u00ebsi n\u00eb nj\u00eb ekonomi t\u00eb dominuar nga sektori publik, n\u00ebn kontrollin e elit\u00ebs sunduese islamike.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrcaktuese n\u00eb nivelin rajonal t\u00eb analiz\u00ebs jan\u00eb siguria, kalimi nga kaosi aktual n\u00eb nj\u00ebfar\u00eb rendi nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar dhe shtetnd\u00ebrtimi, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb parandalimin dhe zgjidhjen paq\u00ebsore t\u00eb konflikteve, demokratizmin, shtetin e s\u00eb drejt\u00ebs, t\u00eb drejtat e njeriut dhe ekonomin\u00eb e tregut t\u00eb lir\u00eb. Duke qen\u00eb t\u00eb pashk\u00ebputshme nga nj\u00ebra-tjetra, asnj\u00ebra nga k\u00ebto tri objektiva nuk arrihen dot jasht\u00eb kornizave t\u00eb doktrin\u00ebs s\u00eb internacionalizmit liberal dhe sistemit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar mbi t\u00eb, pasi q\u00eb shtetet e dob\u00ebt, akter\u00ebt joshtet\u00ebror\u00eb t\u00eb dhunsh\u00ebm dhe rendi nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar anarkik atje e b\u00ebjn\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjen t\u00eb domosdoshme. T\u00eb qenit fuqi rajonale politikisht m\u00eb kohezive se Arabia Saudite rivale p\u00ebrb\u00ebn p\u00ebr Iranin nj\u00eb element fuqie, por natyra teokratike e regjimit dhe qasja e konfrontimit t\u00eb dhunsh\u00ebm ka rezultuar n\u00eb dob\u00ebsi q\u00eb as e ka b\u00ebr\u00eb hegjemon rajonal e as ka ndikuar n\u00eb dob\u00ebsimin e regjimeve rivale sunite. Ajo ka sjell\u00eb fragmentimin e m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb disa shteteve p\u00ebrreth, gara armatimi, nj\u00eb luft\u00eb q\u00eb ka vrar\u00eb rreth nj\u00eb milion iranian\u00eb, dhe dy organizata rajonale (Liga Arabe dhe K\u00ebshilli i Gjirit p\u00ebr Bashk\u00ebpunim) q\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren m\u00eb tep\u00ebr si lev\u00eb rivaliteti dhe izolimi n\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb tij sesa p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb arkitektur\u00eb sigurie dhe nj\u00eb rend nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar.<\/p>\n
Brenda vendit koheziviteti politik varet nga ndjenja e p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb iranian\u00ebve ndaj shtetit t\u00eb qeverisur nga regjimi islamik, stabiliteti politik dhe sa p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuese jan\u00eb institucionet: sa m\u00eb t\u00eb avancuara k\u00ebto, aq m\u00eb koheziv mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb Irani. Vet\u00ebm rreth 61% e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb tij jan\u00eb persian\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa pjesa tjet\u00ebr kryesisht azer\u00eb, kurd\u00eb dhe arab\u00eb. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, 89% jan\u00eb shiit\u00eb, e pjesa tjet\u00ebr kryesisht sunit\u00eb. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 synimeve ideologjike p\u00ebr \u2018revolucion bot\u00ebror panislamik\u2019, sa m\u00eb tep\u00ebr q\u00eb del Irani nga izolimi, aq m\u00eb tep\u00ebr mund t\u00eb dal\u00eb n\u00eb pah mungesa e kohezionit politik q\u00eb lidhet me ndjenj\u00ebn e p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsis\u00eb. Kjo pasi q\u00eb shiizmi \u00ebsht\u00eb fe zyrtare e shtetit, si dhe p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mosnjohjes s\u00eb plot\u00eb t\u00eb pakicave etnike e fetare dhe konflikteve t\u00eb armatosura me kurd\u00ebt. Dob\u00ebsit\u00eb e k\u00ebsaj kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb me stabilitetin politik dhe funksionimin e institucioneve. P\u00ebrtej ndarjeve etnike, nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr dob\u00ebsi \u00ebsht\u00eb se regjimi islamik nuk p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson vullnetin e shprehur nga populli, por \u00ebsht\u00eb rezultati i nj\u00eb revolucioni ku elitat radikale islamike kishin shfryt\u00ebzuar pak\u00ebnaq\u00ebsit\u00eb e nj\u00eb mase t\u00eb gjer\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb ndaj regjimit t\u00eb Shahut, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb k\u00ebtu t\u00eb tregtar\u00ebve dhe klas\u00ebs s\u00eb mesme q\u00eb k\u00ebrkonin m\u00eb shum\u00eb liri politike dhe ekonomike, p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb pushtetin.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, sa m\u00eb t\u00eb paqart\u00eb ta ket\u00eb Irani si fuqi rajonale se si t\u00eb adresoj\u00eb dob\u00ebsit\u00eb e tij \u2013 n\u00eb nivel t\u00eb p\u00ebrputhshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb vlerave t\u00eb shoq\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb tij me ato t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrive mbi t\u00eb cilat synon t\u00eb shtrij\u00eb hegjemonin\u00eb; t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve politike e ekonomike, t\u00eb bazuara n\u00eb interesa, me shtetet e rajonit; t\u00eb nd\u00ebrthurjes m\u00eb t\u00eb gjera t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve t\u00eb veta dhe rivalit kryesor, Arabis\u00eb Saudite, me fuqi globale t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, dhe t\u00eb kohezionit t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm politik \u2013 aq m\u00eb tep\u00ebr ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb q\u00eb dy objektivat \u2013 dalja nga izolimi dhe arritja e hegjemonis\u00eb n\u00eb rajon \u2013 t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohen n\u00eb nj\u00eb dilem\u00eb ku k\u00ebto dy objektiva b\u00ebhen reciprokisht p\u00ebrjashtuese.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ndon\u00ebse pritet q\u00eb marr\u00ebveshja p\u00ebr programin b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit do t\u2019i hapte rrug\u00ebn nj\u00eb epoke balancimi m\u00eb paq\u00ebsor t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, fitorja e Trumpit n\u00eb ShBA mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb paqart\u00ebsi. Marr\u00ebveshja p\u00ebrb\u00ebn triumf t\u00eb doktrin\u00ebs s\u00eb internacionalizmit liberal t\u00eb rendit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, t\u00eb mish\u00ebruar konceptualisht n\u00eb sistemin e OKB-s\u00eb. P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr frik\u00ebs se populizmi […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":469,"featured_media":8100,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1247],"ppma_author":[1190],"class_list":["post-2870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-multipolaritike"],"authors":[{"term_id":1190,"user_id":469,"is_guest":0,"slug":"artan-qollaku","display_name":"Artan \u00c7ollaku","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8a4d7e153604cf729156e6520a24eaee4813927d60bdc6e30ab63747b36f274e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","user_url":"","last_name":"\u00c7ollaku","first_name":"Artan","description":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/469"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2870"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2870\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2871,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2870\/revisions\/2871"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8100"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2870"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=2870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}