{"id":4686,"date":"2021-04-21T14:12:40","date_gmt":"2021-04-21T12:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=4686"},"modified":"2024-10-17T14:18:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T12:18:00","slug":"inflacioni-qe-nuk-po-raportohet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/inflacioni-qe-nuk-po-raportohet\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflacioni q\u00eb nuk po raportohet"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Parashikimet q\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb rritjen e nivelit t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb pakta. Politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebs e njer\u00ebz t\u00eb akademis\u00eb kan\u00eb ngritur shqet\u00ebsimin se intervenimet fiskale e monetare an\u00eb e mban\u00eb bot\u00ebs do t\u00eb stimulojn\u00eb inflacionin. N\u00eb mesin e tyre, Charles Goodhart nga London School of Economics, dhe Morgan Stanley, kan\u00eb publikuar nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr t\u00eb titulluar \u201c<\/span>P\u00ebrmbysja e Madhe Demografike<\/a>\u201d, ku parashikojn\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2021 do t\u00eb v\u00ebrehet rritja e madhe e \u00e7mimeve, e cila mund t\u00eb shkoj deri n\u00eb 10%. Sipas tyre, vendet me popullsi m\u00eb t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ekspozuara ndaj k\u00ebtij fenomeni. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, edhe bizneset n\u00ebp\u00ebr bot\u00eb i kan\u00eb rritur pritjet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb p\u00ebrballje me inflacionin.\u00a0<\/span>Kompanit\u00eb amerikane<\/a>\u00a0kan\u00eb filluar t\u00eb japin sinjal alarmi p\u00ebr rritjen e ardhshme t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, e cila me gjas\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e ndjeshme sesa normat e rritjes q\u00eb kemi p\u00ebrjetuar n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit.\u00a0 Por, \u00e7ka ndodh\u00eb n\u00ebse vazhdon trendi i rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb dhe a kemi statistika t\u00eb besueshme q\u00eb e shfaqin k\u00ebt\u00eb trend?<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Rritja e vazhdueshme e nivelit t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, apo inflacioni, zvog\u00eblon fuqin\u00eb bler\u00ebse t\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve. Kjo ndodh pasi n\u00eb periudh\u00eb afatshkurt\u00ebr pagat nuk iu p\u00ebrshtaten nivelit t\u00eb inflacionit. N\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb sovranitetit monetar, Kosova mundet q\u00eb vet\u00ebm n\u00ebp\u00ebrmes politik\u00ebs fiskale t\u00eb tentoj ta kontrolloj rritjen e \u00e7mimeve. Megjithat\u00eb, mbajtja e \u00e7mimeve n\u00ebn kontroll\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb e leht\u00eb, pasi si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb shum\u00eb her\u00eb, inflacioni n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i importuar. Kjo pasi shumica e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs agregate p\u00ebr mallra plot\u00ebsohet nga importi. K\u00ebshtu, nj\u00eb rritje e \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb vendet prej nga blejm\u00eb, do ta ndjehet shum\u00eb shpejt\u00eb edhe tek ne.\u00a0N\u00eb raportin<\/a>\u00a0e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb Agjencis\u00eb s\u00eb Statistikave (ASK) p\u00ebr muajin mars 2021, norma e inflacionit ishte 1.2% m\u00eb e lart\u00eb sesa p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb t\u00eb vitit paraprak. Norma e rritjes, n\u00eb vetvete, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuese, por jan\u00eb dy arsye q\u00eb na b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb dyshojm\u00eb mbi sakt\u00ebsin\u00eb e numrave t\u00eb prezantuar: artikujt e shport\u00ebs s\u00eb konsumit dhe peshat e p\u00ebrcaktuara p\u00ebr element\u00ebt agregues.<\/p>\n

Fillimisht duhet th\u00ebn\u00eb tro\u00e7: matja e inflacionit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shkenc\u00eb ekzakte dhe si rezultat, \u00e7do her\u00eb ka hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr debate e mospajtime. Pra, p\u00ebrtej metodave statistikore, \u00e7do her\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i nevojsh\u00ebm gjykimi racional i personave q\u00eb merren me k\u00ebt\u00eb pun\u00eb. Ndon\u00ebse ASK punon duke u bazuar n\u00eb metodat e Eurostatit, n\u00eb matjet e \u00e7mimeve p\u00ebr vitin 2020 dhe 2021 nuk ka arritur t\u00eb fus efektet potenciale t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb. N\u00eb vitet e fundit, ASK-ja kalkulon rritjen e \u00e7mimeve duke u bazuar n\u00eb 91 klasa t\u00eb konsumit, dhe rreth 420 produkte. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb shport\u00eb t\u00eb konsumit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb ndryshimi i preferencave t\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve q\u00eb ka derivuar nga situata me koronavirusin.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Angli, Zyra Komb\u00ebtare e Statistikave e\u00a0ka p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsuar shport\u00ebn e konsumit<\/a>, duke futur dhjet\u00ebra produkte n\u00eb shport\u00eb. E th\u00ebn\u00eb ndryshe, produktet si veshje t\u00eb thjeshta p\u00ebr sht\u00ebpi, dezinfektues p\u00ebr duar, pajisje sht\u00ebpiake p\u00ebr ushtrime sportive, pajisje t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb s\u00eb men\u00e7ur dhe t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb ngjashme, jan\u00eb shtuar n\u00eb shport\u00ebn e konsumit. Ky p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsim ka ardhur si pasoj\u00eb e ndryshimit t\u00eb sjelljes s\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs s\u00eb kriz\u00ebs sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore. Ashtu si n\u00eb Angli, edhe n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ka ndryshuar kultura e konsumit. ASK-ja duhet t\u2019i ket\u00eb parasysh k\u00ebto ndryshime kur b\u00ebn vler\u00ebsimin e nivelit t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, pasi gjat\u00eb mbylljes totale, k\u00ebrkesa s\u00eb bashku me \u00e7mimet p\u00ebr produktet ushqimore ishte m\u00eb e madhe.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrve\u00e7 futjes s\u00eb produkteve t\u00eb reja n\u00eb shport\u00ebn e konsumit, \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme t\u00eb merren parasysh edhe devijimet nga mesatarja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb produkteve dhe sh\u00ebrbimeve. Richard Davies, profesor n\u00eb Universitetin e Bristolit n\u00eb Britani, argumenton q\u00eb nd\u00ebr vite, dallimet e \u00e7mimeve nga mesatarja kan\u00eb vazhduar t\u00eb rriten. P\u00ebr shembull, mediana e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb \u00e7orapeve p\u00ebr meshkuj \u00ebsht\u00eb 2 funta \u2013 e pa ndryshuar q\u00eb nga viti 1988. Ndryshe nga viti 1988, tani n\u00eb dyqane ka llojllojshm\u00ebri m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb \u00e7orapeve, \u00e7mimi i t\u00eb cilave ndryshon nga 1 deri n\u00eb 10 funta. \u00cbsht\u00eb evidente q\u00eb nj\u00eb shtres\u00eb e konsiderueshme e shoq\u00ebris\u00eb blen produkte m\u00eb cil\u00ebsore, gj\u00eb e cila duhet ta merret p\u00ebr baz\u00eb nga analist\u00ebt e statistikave.<\/p>\n

Ngjash\u00ebm ndodh edhe n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb. P\u00ebrderisa nj\u00eb pal\u00eb k\u00ebpuc\u00eb kushtojn\u00eb mesatarisht 25 Euro, nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e shoq\u00ebris\u00eb blen mbathje mbi 50 Euro. Me pak fjal\u00eb, pabarazia n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura ka tendenc\u00eb ta paraqes norm\u00ebn e inflacionit m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl sesa ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb.<\/p>\n

ASK-ja, duke u bazuar n\u00eb Anket\u00ebn e Buxhetit Familjar dhe Llogarive Komb\u00ebtare, vendos peshat brenda kategorive t\u00eb konsumit. Pra, llogaritja e inflacionit bazohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb sistem t\u00eb ponderuar ku nj\u00eb kategorie i vendoset pesha q\u00eb e ka n\u00eb kalkulimin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

Efekti i pandemis\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebrejtur n\u00eb peshat e vendosura nga ASK-ja. Sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsia, p\u00ebr shembull, ka rreth 2% pesh\u00eb n\u00eb shport\u00ebn e konsumit. Me mbi 80 mij\u00eb t\u00eb infektuar e af\u00ebr 2 mij\u00eb t\u00eb vdekur, r\u00ebnd\u00ebsia e sektorit t\u00eb sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb shport\u00ebn e konsumit nuk ka ndryshuar. Natyrisht, nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i madh e kan\u00eb kaluar virusin pa ndonj\u00eb komplikim apo v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi, por nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb numri i vog\u00ebl i atyre q\u00eb kan\u00eb marr\u00eb trajtim mjek\u00ebsor. E ky trajtim, ka prekur thell\u00eb gjepat e tyre. Fatkeq\u00ebsisht, indeksi i \u00e7mimeve nuk i jep pesh\u00eb t\u00eb mjaftueshme k\u00ebtij sektori.<\/p>\n

Ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, gjat\u00eb mbylljes totale t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar, transporti ka pasur\u00a015% t\u00eb pesh\u00ebs<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb vler\u00ebsimit final t\u00eb inflacionit. N\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur l\u00ebvizja ishte e kufizuar, ku transporti nd\u00ebr urban i autobus\u00ebve i ndaluar, r\u00ebnd\u00ebsia n\u00eb shport\u00ebn e konsumit nuk do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb ishte e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, pesha q\u00eb i \u00ebsht\u00eb vendosur k\u00ebsaj komponente do t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndikim t\u00eb madh n\u00eb norm\u00ebn e p\u00ebrgjithshme t\u00eb inflacionit.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb kemi nj\u00eb pasqyr\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb p\u00ebr rritjen e \u00e7mimeve, zyrtar\u00ebt e statistikave duhet t\u2019i p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsojn\u00eb gjykimet e tyre t\u00eb brendshme mbi nivelin e peshave p\u00ebr kategorit\u00eb e konsumit. N\u00ebse jo, at\u00ebher\u00eb do t\u00eb vazhdojm\u00eb t\u00eb mbesim t\u00eb pa informuar p\u00ebr nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb sakt\u00eb t\u00eb inflacionit n\u00eb vend.<\/p>\n

Mosp\u00ebrkthimi i tkurrjes s\u00eb buxhetit t\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve n\u00eb numra, do ta linte edhe Qeverin\u00eb n\u00eb mjegull. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, hapi i par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb kuptohet problemi, e pastaj do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb diskutohet si ta zvog\u00eblojm\u00eb efektin e rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Parashikimet q\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb rritjen e nivelit t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb pakta. Politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebs e njer\u00ebz t\u00eb akademis\u00eb kan\u00eb ngritur shqet\u00ebsimin se intervenimet fiskale e monetare an\u00eb e mban\u00eb bot\u00ebs do t\u00eb stimulojn\u00eb inflacionin. N\u00eb mesin e tyre, Charles Goodhart nga London School of Economics, dhe Morgan Stanley, kan\u00eb publikuar nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr t\u00eb titulluar \u201cP\u00ebrmbysja e […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":441,"featured_media":8576,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1399,1006,1345,1049],"ppma_author":[1012],"class_list":["post-4686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-ask","tag-ekonomi","tag-inflacioni","tag-zhvillimi-ekonomik"],"authors":[{"term_id":1012,"user_id":441,"is_guest":0,"slug":"albian-krasniqi","display_name":"Albian Krasniqi","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/albiani.png","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/albiani.png"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Krasniqi","first_name":"Albian","description":"Albian Krasniqi \u00ebsht\u00eb kandidat p\u00ebr doktoratur\u00eb n\u00eb Universitetin Teknologjik t\u00eb Dublinit, duke u specializuar p\u00ebr tregun e pun\u00ebs. Paraprakisht ka mbaruar studimet master p\u00ebr ekonomi t\u00eb zhvillimit, n\u00eb Universitetin e Sussexit, n\u00eb Angli. Albiani ka p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb pune si ekonomist n\u00eb institucionet vendore dhe organizatat nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/441"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4686"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4686\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8577,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4686\/revisions\/8577"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8576"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4686"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=4686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}