{"id":4749,"date":"2021-03-15T14:14:56","date_gmt":"2021-03-15T12:14:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=4749"},"modified":"2025-01-20T14:19:41","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T12:19:41","slug":"pse-be-ja-nuk-duhet-te-prese-godone-e-tatepjetes-ruse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/pse-be-ja-nuk-duhet-te-prese-godone-e-tatepjetes-ruse\/","title":{"rendered":"Pse BE-ja nuk duhet t\u00eb pres\u00eb Godon\u00eb e tat\u00ebpjet\u00ebs ruse"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Shum\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie, por \u00ebsht\u00eb gabim t\u00eb bazohet politika e BE-s\u00eb mbi nj\u00eb mendim t\u00eb till\u00eb determinist. BE-ja duhet t\u00eb merret me Rusin\u00eb e sotme, jo me at\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2050 apo 2070.<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa lider\u00ebt e BE-s\u00eb p\u00ebrgatiten p\u00ebr samitin e 25-26 marsit, ku planifikojn\u00eb t\u00eb diskutojn\u00eb p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb, shum\u00eb prej tyre jan\u00eb t\u00eb bindur se Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb fuqi n\u00eb r\u00ebnie. Q\u00eb prej shembjes s\u00eb Bashkimit Sovjetik, pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e politik\u00ebs amerikane e europiane mbi Rusin\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb iden\u00eb se Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie dhe duhet ve\u00e7se t\u00eb menaxhohet pa probleme, ose t\u00eb lejohet q\u00eb t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb faza aktuale e akivizmit rus t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme, pa marr\u00eb parasysh sa d\u00ebmprur\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb kjo p\u00ebr interesat e Bashkimit Europian dhe Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara. Kjo qasje me raste quhet \u2018durim strategjik\u2019 \u2013 ndon\u00ebse nuk ka asgj\u00eb strategjike n\u00eb t\u00eb bazuarit e politik\u00ebs n\u00eb determiniz\u00ebm. Marr\u00eb parasysh se\u00a0\u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje e hapur<\/a>\u00a0se a do t\u00eb marr\u00eb Rusia tat\u00ebpjet\u00ebn, pritjet e tilla jan\u00eb shkurtpam\u00ebse. \u00cbsht\u00eb koha q\u00eb BE-ja t\u00eb merret me Rusin\u00eb e sotme, jo me at\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2050 apo 2070.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb parashikimin p\u00eb r\u00ebnien e Rusis\u00eb, shum\u00eb mendimtar\u00eb amerikan\u00eb, europian\u00eb, dhe politikb\u00ebr\u00ebs \u2013 q\u00eb nga\u00a0Joseph Nye<\/a>\u00a0te\u00a0Barack Obama<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 p\u00eblqejn\u00eb t\u00eb theksojn\u00eb hisen e zvog\u00ebluar t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale, madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e BPV-s\u00eb [Bruto Produkti Vendor] s\u00eb tyre (e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb e krahasueshme me at\u00eb t\u00eb Spanj\u00ebs dhe Portugalis\u00eb s\u00eb bashku), dhe trendet demografike.<\/p>\n

Ata p\u00ebrmendin gjithashtu var\u00ebsin\u00eb e Rusis\u00eb nga l\u00ebndet e para dhe paaft\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar korrupsionin, sikur edhe shum\u00eb s\u00ebmundje t\u00eb tjera kronike t\u00eb shtetit dhe ekonomis\u00eb. T\u00eb menduarit e till\u00eb \u00e7on te nj\u00eb politik\u00eb q\u00eb pret derisa Moska t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb pashmangshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, moment n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin Per\u00ebndimi mund t\u00eb zhvilloj\u00eb bashk\u00ebbisedim t\u00eb arsyesh\u00ebm me t\u00eb rreth nd\u00ebrveprimeve t\u00eb ardhshme.<\/p>\n

Ka nj\u00eb num\u00ebr arsyesh pse mb\u00ebshtetja e qasjeve t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb dhe BE-s\u00eb ndaj Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb ide t\u00eb r\u00ebnies s\u00eb pashmangshme \u00ebsht\u00eb qorrsokak politik. Sa p\u00ebr fillim, BPV-ja dhe indikator\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb socioekonomik\u00eb jan\u00eb thjesht vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb matje e pushtetit. Lidhja mes BPV-s\u00eb dhe ndikimit gjeopolitik nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb kurr\u00eb lineare. Sigurisht se \u00ebsht\u00eb ndihmes\u00eb t\u00eb kesh ekonomi t\u00eb madhe. Por historia \u00ebsht\u00eb plot me raste ku shtetet \u2013 madje edhe protoshtetet \u2013 me ekonomi jo aq mbres\u00ebl\u00ebn\u00ebse kan\u00eb mbizot\u00ebruar dhe shkat\u00ebrruar fqinjt\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb pasur e m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrparuar teknologjikisht. R\u00ebnia e Per\u00ebnadoris\u00eb Romake p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb shembull t\u00eb till\u00eb. Mongol\u00ebt v\u00ebrshuan Kin\u00ebn disa her\u00eb. Irani nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vendi m\u00eb i pasur n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, por ka rritur me dekada ndikimin gjeopolitik p\u00ebrkitazi me vendet me BPV m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb. Dhe vet\u00eb Rusia ka qen\u00eb m\u00eb e varf\u00ebr se pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e Europ\u00ebs kur trupat e saj kaluan Alpet m\u00eb 1799 dhe kur kosak\u00ebt i m\u00ebsuan kamerier\u00ebve parisien\u00eb fjal\u00ebn \u2018bistro\u2019, pas mposhtjes s\u00eb Napoleonit m\u00eb 1815.<\/p>\n

Sot, Turqia dhe Zvicra kan\u00eb BPV t\u00eb ngjashme, nd\u00ebrsa Irlanda ka BPV m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb se Egjipti. Sidoqoft\u00eb, Irlanda dhe Zvicra nuk jan\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb njejt\u00ebn lig\u00eb me Turqin\u00eb e Egjiptin kur \u00ebsht\u00eb puna te ndikimi i tyre mbi \u00e7\u00ebshtjet globale dhe rajonale. Prandaj, BPV-ja e Rusis\u00eb nuk duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmendet si paralajm\u00ebruese e rr\u00ebnimit t\u00eb saj eventual gjeopolitik.<\/p>\n

Problemi tjet\u00ebr me t\u00eb mb\u00ebshteturit e politik\u00ebs ndaj Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb iden\u00eb se fuqia gjeopolitike ruse do t\u00eb marr\u00eb tat\u00ebpjet\u00ebn, \u00ebsht\u00eb se mund t\u00eb kalojn\u00eb dekada para se kjo t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e jashtme ruse. N\u00eb dhjet\u00ebvje\u00e7arin e fundit, Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb angazhuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb madh aksionesh armiq\u00ebsore kund\u00ebr BE-s\u00eb dhe vendeve fqinje t\u00eb bllokut, Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme, dhe Afrik\u00ebs \u2013 sikurse n\u00eb Serbi, Bosnje, Mal t\u00eb Zi, Libi, Siri, dhe madje Republik\u00ebn e Afrik\u00ebs Qendrore. Rusia ka ndjekur nj\u00eb strategji t\u00eb dizajnuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb maksimizuar fuqin\u00eb gjeopolitike, shpesh duke sfiduar drejtp\u00ebrdrejt pozit\u00ebn, interesat dhe ndikimin e BE-s\u00eb. Do t\u00eb ishte shum\u00eb e pap\u00ebrgjegjshme p\u00ebr \u00e7do fuqi, q\u00eb t\u00eb shikoj\u00eb goj\u00ebhapur shpalosjen e procesit edhe p\u00ebr 20 a 30 vjet\u00eb, me shpres\u00ebn se r\u00ebnia do ta detyroj\u00eb Rusin\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrroj\u00eb kahje.<\/p>\n

Besimi n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e Rusis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu i gabuesh\u00ebm sepse projekton mbi Rusin\u00eb historin\u00eb e shumic\u00ebs s\u00eb perandorive europiane. Shumica e perandorive europiane kan\u00eb pasur nj\u00eb lloj historie lineare t\u00eb ngritjes, r\u00ebnies, dhe shembjes, pasuar nga t\u00eb pranuarit e nj\u00eb ekzistence t\u00eb rehatshme si shtete t\u00eb vogla apo t\u00eb mesme. Austria, Britania, Belgjika, Hungaria, Lituania, Polonia, Portugalia, Spanja, dhe Suedia kan\u00eb kaluar q\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha n\u00ebp\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb histori lineare perandorake t\u00eb prosperitetit t\u00eb madh dhe d\u00ebshtimit. Por nj\u00eb zhvillim i till\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb doemos norm\u00eb. Plot shtete kan\u00eb kaluar n\u00ebp\u00ebr cikle t\u00eb shk\u00eblqimit dhe r\u00ebnies. Fuqit\u00eb kineze, iraniane dhe ruse jan\u00eb zgjeruar, tkurrur, dhe jan\u00eb zgjeruar s\u00ebrish me shekuj \u2013 madje me mij\u00ebvje\u00e7ar\u00eb. N\u00eb mij\u00ebvje\u00e7arin e fundit, fuqia perandorake ruse shp\u00ebrtheu dhe u shemb disa her\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Kujtesa historike ka implikime konkrete t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrveprimet e sotme BE-Rusi. Aty ku BE-ja sheh r\u00ebnie t\u00eb pakthyeshme t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, kjo e fundit sheh nj\u00eb prej disa ngecjeve t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohshme q\u00eb ka p\u00ebrjetuar gjat\u00eb shekujve. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit rus\u00eb besojn\u00eb se mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysin nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb till\u00eb, ashtu si\u00e7 b\u00ebn\u00eb paraardh\u00ebsit e tyre pas tkurrjes s\u00eb shtetit rus pas revolucionit t\u00eb vitit 1917. M\u00eb 1918, Rusia humbi kontrollin e copave t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb territorit (p\u00ebrfshi Finland\u00ebn, Polonin\u00eb, dhe shtetet baltike, si dhe Moldavin\u00eb e sotme). Por, brenda m\u00eb pak se tri dekadave, ajo riktheu pjes\u00eb t\u00eb territoreve t\u00eb humbura dhe zgjeroi kontrollin deri n\u00eb Berlin, Varshav\u00eb, Prag\u00eb, dhe Tiran\u00eb. Historia e Rusis\u00eb e p\u00ebrmbysjes s\u00eb r\u00ebnieve, form\u00ebson politik\u00ebn aktuale t\u00eb jashtme\u00a0 – dhe mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb ta form\u00ebsoj\u00eb edhe p\u00ebr m\u00eb s\u00eb paku dy dekada.<\/p>\n

E v\u00ebrteta \u00ebsht\u00eb se askush s\u2019e di se a do t\u00eb p\u00ebsoj\u00eb r\u00ebnie Rusia, apo do t\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbet. Sido q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb, Rusia mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb ngat\u00ebrres\u00eb p\u00ebr dekada me radh\u00eb, duke shkaktuar gjat\u00eb rrug\u00ebs d\u00ebme serioze interesave t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb. Shum\u00eb prej sfidave q\u00eb paraqet Rusia p\u00ebr BE-n\u00eb \u2013 ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht ato q\u00eb lidhen me ndikimin e bllokut n\u00eb Ballkan, Lindje t\u00eb Mesme, dhe Europ\u00eb lindore \u2013 nuk do t\u00eb zhduken vetvetiu. BE-ja do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb adresoj\u00eb sfidat e tilla p\u00ebrmes veprave q\u00eb rrisin fuqin\u00eb e saj p\u00ebrkitazi me Rusin\u00eb dhe me vet\u00eb fqinj\u00ebt e bllokut \u2013 jo p\u00ebrmes durimit strategjik, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb term i sjellsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr mosveprimin strategjik.<\/p>\n

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Artikulli origjinal i botuar n\u00eb\u00a0European Council on Foreign Relations<\/a>, m\u00eb 5 mars 2021.<\/p>\n

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Ky artikull\u00a0mb\u00ebshtetet nga “Sbunker” p\u00ebrmes projektit t\u00eb financuar nga Ambasada Amerikane. Mendimet e shprehura k\u00ebtu jan\u00eb t\u00eb autorit\u00a0dhe jo medoemos pasqyrojn\u00eb q\u00ebndrimet e Departamentit t\u00eb Shtetit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Shum\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie, por \u00ebsht\u00eb gabim t\u00eb bazohet politika e BE-s\u00eb mbi nj\u00eb mendim t\u00eb till\u00eb determinist. BE-ja duhet t\u00eb merret me Rusin\u00eb e sotme, jo me at\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2050 apo 2070. P\u00ebrderisa lider\u00ebt e BE-s\u00eb p\u00ebrgatiten p\u00ebr samitin e 25-26 marsit, ku planifikojn\u00eb t\u00eb diskutojn\u00eb p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb, […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":640,"featured_media":12309,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1043,1239],"ppma_author":[2429],"class_list":["post-4749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-be","tag-rusia"],"authors":[{"term_id":2429,"user_id":640,"is_guest":0,"slug":"nicu-popescu","display_name":"Nicu Popescu","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/nicu-popsecu-8.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/nicu-popsecu-8.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Popescu","first_name":"Nicu","description":"Nicu Popescu is a distinguished policy fellow of the European Power programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in the Paris office."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/640"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4749"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12311,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4749\/revisions\/12311"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12309"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4749"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=4749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}