{"id":4784,"date":"2021-04-15T13:17:18","date_gmt":"2021-04-15T11:17:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=4784"},"modified":"2024-11-06T13:19:42","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T11:19:42","slug":"triumfi-i-se-majtes-ne-shba-dhe-rikthimi-i-kercenimit-te-inflacionit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/triumfi-i-se-majtes-ne-shba-dhe-rikthimi-i-kercenimit-te-inflacionit\/","title":{"rendered":"Triumfi i s\u00eb majt\u00ebs n\u00eb ShBA dhe rikthimi i k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimit t\u00eb inflacionit"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u00ebr pothuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb, zgjedhja e Joe Biden-it si President i ShBA-ve n\u00ebnkuptonte vazhdim\u00ebsi t\u00eb Presidenc\u00ebs Obama. P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr faktit se ishin produkt i flak\u00ebs progresive p\u00ebr ndryshim, Obama dhe Biden do t\u00eb qeverisnin si t\u00eb moderuar n\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje kulturore dhe si konzervativ fiskal n\u00eb ekonomi. N\u00eb frym\u00eb t\u00eb njejt\u00eb, kandidati Biden do t\u00eb b\u00ebnte s\u00ebrish kampanj\u00eb – suksessh\u00ebm, ashtu si\u00e7 edhe doli. Mes nj\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00ebsi me gjuh\u00eb inflamatore n\u00eb Presidentin Trump, dhe radikal\u00ebve t\u00eb majt\u00eb n\u00eb figurat Sanders apo Warren, Biden kishte dal\u00eb si nj\u00eb zgjidhje e p\u00ebrshtatshme – ndon\u00ebse jo ngaz\u00ebllyese – p\u00ebr popullin Amerikan.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, Presidenti Biden muajin e kaluar i habiti t\u00eb gjith\u00eb duke kaluar n\u00eb Senat nj\u00eb pako stimuluese t\u00eb paprecedent e cila kap shifr\u00ebn marramend\u00ebse prej 1.9 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00ebve, duke treguar k\u00ebshtu se ai \u00ebsht\u00eb gjith\u00e7ka \u00e7far\u00eb krahu i majt\u00eb ekonomik kishte \u00ebnd\u00ebrruar tek nj\u00eb president.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrmbajtja e pakos fiskale \u00ebsht\u00eb natyrisht e admirueshme. Nga ndihmat p\u00ebr qytetar\u00eb, p\u00ebr ata q\u00eb humb\u00ebn pun\u00ebn n\u00eb pandemi, shtesat p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00eb, etj., kjo pako ofron leht\u00ebsim tejet t\u00eb nevojsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr shtresat e prekura nga pandemia dhe kriza ekonomike.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrtej p\u00ebrmbajtjes, megjithat\u00eb, magnituda e k\u00ebsaj pakoje – e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb dhe tema qendrore e k\u00ebtij artikulli – p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb transformim rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsor t\u00eb ortodoksis\u00eb mbizot\u00ebruese n\u00eb mendimin ekonomik.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr dekada t\u00eb t\u00ebra, prej stagflacionit t\u00eb 1970-t\u00ebs, mendimi dominues ekonomik i reflektuar n\u00eb pajtim bipartizan nga establishmenti i t\u00eb dy partive kryesore n\u00eb ShBA, ka qen\u00eb i preokupuar kryesisht me minimizimin e rrezikut t\u00eb inflacionit para uljes s\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb dhe q\u00ebllimeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb shtetit.<\/p>\n

Me kalimin e k\u00ebsaj pakoje, e cila vjen pas shpenzimit t\u00eb mbi 3 trilion dollar\u00ebve p\u00ebr ta luftuar r\u00ebnien ekonomike, dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur planifikohet t\u00eb shpenzohen trilion\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb n\u00eb infrastruktur\u00eb dhe fusha t\u00eb tjera, shqet\u00ebsimi tradicional rreth borxhit publik dhe inflacionit i ka l\u00ebshuar rrug\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimit se nd\u00ebrhyrja e shtetit do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e pamjaftueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb rikthyer ekonomin\u00eb n\u00eb shina.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

Problemi te qasja e Presidentit Biden \u00ebsht\u00eb se ajo shkon p\u00ebrtej metodave konvencionale p\u00ebr ballafaqim me kriz\u00eb ekonomike. P\u00ebrtej luftimit t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs, magnituda e k\u00ebsaj pakoje n\u00ebnkupton transformim rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsor t\u00eb rolit t\u00eb shtetit n\u00eb ekonomi. S\u00eb pari, situata ekonomike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb as p\u00ebr s\u00eb af\u00ebrmi e zymt\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb justifikuar k\u00ebto shpenzime masive. S\u00eb dyti, ekziston nj\u00eb nivel i lart\u00eb i k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb bllokuar (pent-up demand<\/em>) q\u00eb do ta fuqizoj k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn ndjesh\u00ebm. S\u00eb treti, k\u00ebto shpenzime e tejkalojn\u00eb shum\u00ebfish hendekun e prodhimit.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa n\u00eb vitin 2009 ShBA-ja ishte e zhytur thell\u00eb n\u00eb kriz\u00eb ekonomike, tani ekonomia \u00ebsht\u00eb e sh\u00ebndosh\u00eb dhe pritjet p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen jan\u00eb tejet pozitive. N\u00eb vitin 2009, shkalla e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb ShBA ishte 8.1%, sistemi financiar bot\u00ebror kishte kolapsuar, dhe me borxh publik prej 9 trilion\u00ebve Senati kishte vendosur t\u00eb kalonte nj\u00eb pako stimuluese prej 787 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebve. P\u00ebr dallim, sot, kur t\u00eb gjith\u00eb indikator\u00ebt kryesor jan\u00eb pozitiv – nga shkalla e ul\u00ebt e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb, gjendja financiare e konsumator\u00ebve, \u00e7mimet e aksioneve, etj – dhe kur borxhi publik \u00ebsht\u00eb 28 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb, Senati ka vendosur t\u00eb kaloj nj\u00eb pako stimuluese prej 1.9 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00ebve (mbi trilion\u00ebt tjer\u00eb q\u00eb ve\u00e7 jan\u00eb shpenzuar dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb shpenzohen).<\/p>\n

Sipas disa parashikimeve, Amerikan\u00ebt k\u00ebt\u00eb vit kan\u00eb kursyer mbi 1.6 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb krahasim me \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb kursenin zakonisht. Kur masat t\u00eb relaksohen, ata do t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb shpenzojn\u00eb k\u00ebto kursime, duke e fuqizuar ndjesh\u00ebm k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn dhe duke e kthyer ekonomin\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb shina. Rrjedhimisht, ky nivel i lart\u00eb i k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb bllokuar i b\u00ebn shpenzimet e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs Biden t\u00eb panevojshme dhe potencialisht me pasoja t\u00eb d\u00ebmshme p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nga pik\u00ebpamja e past\u00ebrt makroekonomike, n\u00eb kriza ekonomike nd\u00ebrhyrja qeveritare \u00ebsht\u00eb e domosdoshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar hendekun e prodhimit dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb rikthyer besimin e konsumator\u00ebve. Mir\u00ebpo, si\u00e7 v\u00ebren me t\u00eb drejt\u00eb Lawrence D. Summers, ish-Sekretar i Thesarit n\u00eb Administrat\u00ebn Klinton dhe ish-Drejtor i K\u00ebshillit Ekonomik Komb\u00ebtar n\u00eb Administrat\u00ebn Obama, shpenzimet e administrat\u00ebs Biden e tejkalojn\u00eb shum\u00ebfish hendekun e prodhimit. N\u00eb kriz\u00ebn financiare t\u00eb vitit 2009, hap\u00ebsira mes prodhimit dhe potencialit t\u00eb prodhimit ishte rreth 80 milard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb muaj. P\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur k\u00ebt\u00eb boshll\u00ebk, pakoja stimuluese at\u00ebher\u00eb do t\u00eb injektonte deri n\u00eb 40 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb muaj gjat\u00eb vitit 2009 – pra, gjysm\u00ebn e shum\u00ebs s\u00eb prodhimit t\u00eb munguar. Sipas Zyr\u00ebs s\u00eb Buxhetit t\u00eb Kongresit, vet\u00ebm me pakon 900 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebshe, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb miratuar n\u00eb dhjetor t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar, hap\u00ebsira mes prodhimit dhe potencialit t\u00eb prodhimit do t\u00eb ulet nga 50 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb muaj, n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit, n\u00eb 20 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb muaj n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit. Me pakon e re do t\u00eb injektohen 150 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb muaj – pra, s\u00eb paku trefish m\u00eb shum\u00eb se sa shuma e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb prodhimit. Pra, p\u00ebrderisa n\u00eb vitin 2009 stimuluesi ishte sa gjysma e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb prodhimit, tash stimuluesi do t\u00eb jet\u00eb trefish m\u00eb i madh se sa r\u00ebnia e prodhimit. N\u00eb raport me madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e hendekut q\u00eb adresohet, tash stimuluesi \u00ebsht\u00eb gjasht\u00ebfish m\u00eb i madh.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebto argumente tregojn\u00eb se pakoja leht\u00ebsuese e Presidentit Biden, e destinuar si p\u00ebrgjigje konvencionale ndaj kriz\u00ebs ekonomike, n\u00eb fakt \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb Kal\u00eb i Troj\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsisht paradigm\u00ebn ekonomike n\u00eb ShBA, duke e fuqizuar rolin e shtetit n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

Se \u00e7far\u00eb efekti do t\u00eb ket\u00eb ky intervenim qeveritar n\u00eb ekonomi mbetet t\u00eb shihet, mir\u00ebpo disa ekonomist\u00eb kan\u00eb fillur ta ngrejn\u00eb alarmin p\u00ebr k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin e inflacionit q\u00eb mund t\u2019i kanoset ekonomis\u00eb Amerikane.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr Wendy Edelbert nga Brooking Institutions, rreziku i k\u00ebtyre shpenzimeve \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse njer\u00ebzit do t\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se rritja e \u00e7mimeve do t\u00eb jet\u00eb permanente. N\u00eb nj\u00eb rast t\u00eb till\u00eb, do t\u00eb kemi nj\u00eb profeci vet\u00ebp\u00ebrmbush\u00ebse, ku bizneset do t\u00eb rrisin \u00e7mimet dhe pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb rritje t\u00eb pagave, duke e l\u00ebshuar nj\u00eb spirale inflacionare me trend rrit\u00ebs n\u00eb ekonomi e cila v\u00ebshtir\u00eb se do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb kontrollohet pastaj.<\/p>\n

Lawrence D. Summers, ish-Sekretar i Thesarit n\u00eb administrat\u00ebn Klinton, parashikon q\u00eb kjo qasje ka gjasa nj\u00eb-n\u00eb-tre t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb inflacion m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, gjasa nj\u00eb-n\u00eb-tre t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb q\u00eb Banka Qendrore (FED) t\u00eb rris\u00eb normat e interesit p\u00ebr t\u00eb parandaluar mbinxehjen e ekonomis\u00eb dhe k\u00ebshtu t\u00eb d\u00ebrgoj\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb drejt recesionit, dhe gjasa nj\u00eb-n\u00eb-tre q\u00eb gjith\u00e7ka t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb sipas planeve t\u00eb zyrtar\u00ebve t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs dhe administrat\u00ebs Biden.<\/p>\n

Zyrtar\u00ebt e Bank\u00ebs Qendrore, n\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, i kan\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsuar shqet\u00ebsimet e mbinxehjes s\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb dhe inflacionit. Z\u00ebvend\u00ebs-drejtori i Bank\u00ebs, Richard H. Clarida, ka potencuar se ende jan\u00eb 9.5 milion\u00eb vende t\u00eb humbura t\u00eb pun\u00ebs nga pandemia, dhe rrjedhimisht, sipas tij, ekonomia ka ende shum\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u sh\u00ebruar para se dikush t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb brengoset p\u00ebr mbinxehje t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr administrat\u00ebn Biden, shpenzimet e k\u00ebtij viti do t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb duke u zvog\u00ebluar pasiq\u00eb s\u2019jan\u00eb permanente, dhe k\u00ebsisoj rritja e \u00e7mimeve do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb ngjarje e nj\u00ebher\u00ebshme. Ata parashikojn\u00eb se \u00e7mimet do t\u2019i kthehen normalitetit dhe q\u00eb papun\u00ebsia do t\u00eb ulet. Rrjedhimisht, sipas parashikimeve t\u00eb tyre, vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm ekonomia do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e stabilizuar nd\u00ebrsa inflacioni n\u00eb nivel stabil.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

Me k\u00ebt\u00eb nivel t\u00eb paprecedent t\u00eb shpenzimeve qeveritare, \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se tanim\u00eb ShBA-t\u00eb jan\u00eb duke ecur n\u00eb territor t\u00eb pashkelur. Megjithat\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb her\u00ebt t\u00eb konkludojm\u00eb se shqet\u00ebsimet rreth inflacionit do t\u00eb materializohen. Sido q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb, n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb \u00e7do rezultat do t\u00eb jet\u00eb suboptimal p\u00ebr p\u00ebrkrah\u00ebsit e s\u00eb djatht\u00ebs ekonomike. N\u00eb rast se inflacioni del jasht\u00eb kontrollit, nj\u00eb ngjarje e till\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb pasoja serioze p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb Amerikane dhe globale. N\u00eb rast se Banka Qendrore arrin ta menaxhoj\u00eb at\u00eb – pa e d\u00ebrguar ekonomin\u00eb n\u00eb recesion – e majta do ta konsideroj\u00eb pakon fiskale t\u00eb Presidentit Biden si fitore ideologjike, dhe do t\u00eb trim\u00ebrohet p\u00ebr ta vazhduar kryq\u00ebzat\u00ebn e saj p\u00ebr fuqizim gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb rolit t\u00eb shtetit n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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P\u00ebr pothuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb, zgjedhja e Joe Biden-it si President i ShBA-ve n\u00ebnkuptonte vazhdim\u00ebsi t\u00eb Presidenc\u00ebs Obama. P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr faktit se ishin produkt i flak\u00ebs progresive p\u00ebr ndryshim, Obama dhe Biden do t\u00eb qeverisnin si t\u00eb moderuar n\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje kulturore dhe si konzervativ fiskal n\u00eb ekonomi. N\u00eb frym\u00eb t\u00eb njejt\u00eb, kandidati Biden do t\u00eb b\u00ebnte s\u00ebrish […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":170,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1345,999],"ppma_author":[199],"class_list":["post-4784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analize","tag-inflacioni","tag-shba"],"authors":[{"term_id":199,"user_id":170,"is_guest":0,"slug":"rinor-kastrati","display_name":"Rinor Kastrati","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/download-6-7.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/download-6-7.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Kastrati","first_name":"Rinor","description":"Rinor Kastrati \u00ebsht\u00eb ligj\u00ebrues, konsulent dhe nd\u00ebrmarr\u00ebs i angazhuar n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e ekonomis\u00eb dhe biznesit. Ai ka vijuar studimet universitare n\u00eb RIT Kosovo dhe ato pasuniversitare n\u00eb Syracuse University, Nju Jork, ShBA. Rinori s\u00eb fundmi ka punuar n\u00eb kabinetin e kryetares s\u00eb Kuvendit t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs, ku ka mbuluar fush\u00ebn e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare dhe t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb. Ai tani \u00ebsht\u00eb i angazhuar si asistent ligjerues n\u00eb Kolegjin Riinvest dhe si partner menaxhues n\u00eb kompanin\u00eb Growth Lab Solutions."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/170"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4784"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4784\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9729,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4784\/revisions\/9729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4784"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=4784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}