{"id":4996,"date":"2016-01-29T16:49:50","date_gmt":"2016-01-29T14:49:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=4996"},"modified":"2024-11-21T16:09:04","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T14:09:04","slug":"i-vellai-le-te-vellane-pjesa-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/i-vellai-le-te-vellane-pjesa-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"I v\u00ebllai le t\u00eb v\u00ebllan\u00eb (Pjesa II)"},"content":{"rendered":"
Krahasimi i parametrave mes Iranit dhe Arabis\u00eb Saudite<\/strong><\/div>\n
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Por, ku q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb n\u00eb raport me n\u00ebjra-tjetr\u00ebn k\u00ebto dy vende n\u00eb parametra ekonomik, demografik, infrastrukturor dhe ushtarak?<\/p>\n

Arabia Saudite ka mbi 29 milion\u00eb\u00a0banor\u00eb, 1\/3 e t\u00eb cil\u00ebve jan\u00eb emigrant\u00eb. 97% e saudit\u00ebve jan\u00eb mysliman\u00eb, prej tyre 82% sunit\u00eb. Irani ka mbi 83 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb, 99% e tyre mysliman\u00eb, prej tyre 90% shiit\u00eb. Arabia Saudita ka\u00a0territor\u00a0prej 2.149,690 km2, e, Irani i ka 1.648.195 km2. 90% e Arabis\u00eb Saudite jan\u00eb arab\u00eb, kurse vet\u00ebm 61% e Iranit jan\u00eb pers\u00eb (16% azer\u00eb, 10% kurd\u00eb, 6% lur\u00eb e 7% arab\u00eb, balo\u00e7\u00eb, turkmen\u00eb, etj.).\u00a0GDP e Arabis\u00eb Saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb 745.273 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb, e Iranit 366.259 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb.\u00a0GDP\u00a0per capita\u00a0e Arabis\u00eb Saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb 6 her\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe sesa e Iranit e\u00a0shpenzimet ushtarake\u00a0jan\u00eb 4.5 her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha se t\u00eb Iranit.<\/p>\n

Arabia Saudite, pas Venezuel\u00ebs, ka rezervat e dyta m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb bot\u00eb me\u00a0naft\u00eb(268.350 miliard\u00eb barrela), kurse Irani ka rezervat e kat\u00ebrta n\u00eb bot\u00eb me 157.800 miliard\u00eb barrela (pas Venezuel\u00ebs, Arabis\u00eb Saudite dhe Kanadas\u00eb). Sa i p\u00ebrket\u00a0prodhimit ditor t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, Arabia Saudite aktualisht \u00ebsht\u00eb e dyta n\u00eb bot\u00eb (pas Rusis\u00eb), gjersa Irani vjen i shtati (pas Rusis\u00eb, Arabis\u00eb Saudite, ShBA-se, Kin\u00ebs, Kanadas\u00eb e Irakut).<\/p>\n

Irani, n\u00eb dallim prej naft\u00ebs, ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb\u00a0rezerva t\u00eb gazit natyror\u00a0n\u00eb krahasim me Arabin\u00eb Saudite. Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb i dyti n\u00eb bot\u00eb, pas Rusis\u00eb, me 33.6 trilion\u00eb m3, kurse Arabia Saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb e gjashta (pas Rusis\u00eb, Iranit, Katarit, Turkmenistanit e ShBA-s\u00eb) me 8.6 trilion\u00eb m3.<\/p>\n

Edhe Irani edhe Arabia Saudite\u00a0nj\u00ebsin\u00eb monetare\u00a0t\u00eb tyre e quajn\u00eb \u201crial\u201d.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Iran,\u00a0e drejta e vot\u00ebs\u00a0lejohet prej mosh\u00ebs 18 vje\u00e7; n\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite prej 21 vje\u00e7 (vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr zgjedhje lokale, pasiq\u00eb Arabia Saudite nuk lejon mbajtjen e zgjedhjeve qendrore). Dy vendet e ndalojn\u00eb pirjen e\u00a0alkoolit. Irani ka\u00a0demokraci\u00a0shum\u00ebpartiake dhegrat\u00eb\u00a0mund t\u00eb zgjedhin e t\u00eb zgjedhen (q\u00eb nga viti 1963), por jo edhe n\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite (mbreti i ri Selman ka premtuar se prej vitit 2015, n\u00eb zgjedhjet lokale, grave do t\u2019iu njihet e drejta e vot\u00ebs). Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb\u00a0republik\u00eb\u00a0islamike; Arabia Saudite\u00a0monarki\u00a0absolute. Irani i ka 8% t\u00eb\u00a0deputet\u00ebve t\u00eb zgjedhur gra, kurse Arabia Saudite 20% t\u00eb deputet\u00ebve t\u00eb caktuar nga mbreti i ka gra (pasiq\u00eb nuk lejohen zgjedhjet, mbreti e cakton vet t\u00eb gjith\u00eb 150 an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e kuvendit, \u201cmexhlisit\u201d).<\/p>\n

Arabia Saudite e ka\u00a0shkall\u00ebn e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb\u00a0m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt se sa t\u00eb Iranit (10% n\u00eb Iran, 5% n\u00eb Arabi). 18% e iranian\u00ebve dhe 13% e saudit\u00ebve jetojn\u00eb n\u00eb\u00a0varf\u00ebri. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebr Arabin\u00eb Saudite s\u2019kam gjetur t\u00eb dh\u00ebna, n\u00eb Iran\u00a023%\u00a0e familjeve s\u2019e kan\u00eb t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuar asnj\u00eb pjes\u00ebtar t\u00eb familjes.\u00a0Rritja vjetore e GDP-s\u00eb\u00a0n\u00eb Iran sh\u00ebnon +2.8% (+28% mes periudhave 2008-14), gjersa n\u00eb Arabi Saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb +2% (+79% mes viteve 2008-14).\u00a0Tregtia\u00a0mbulon pjes\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb s\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudite sesa t\u00eb Iranit. Irani\u00a0importon\u00a0t\u00eb mira materiale dhe sh\u00ebrbime n\u00eb vler\u00eb 145 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb (n\u00eb 2014-n ka sh\u00ebnuar rritje prej 126%), kurse Arabia Saudite n\u00eb vler\u00eb prej 37 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb (n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 2005-14 ka r\u00ebnie prej 58%). Irani\u00a0eksporton\u00a019.5 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb vit (n\u00eb krahasim me vitin 2005 ka r\u00ebnie prej 82%, shkaktuar sidomos nga sanksionet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare), 82% e t\u00eb cilave \u00ebsht\u00eb naft\u00eb ose gaz natyror. Arabia Saudite eksporton 92 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb (-49% n\u00eb periudhat 2005-14), 87% e t\u00eb cilave \u00ebsht\u00eb naft\u00eb. Arabia Saudite ka\u00a0rritje vjetore t\u00eb prodhimit industrial\u00a0prej 2.5% (n\u00eb vitet 1968-2013, rritja mesatare vjetore \u00ebsht\u00eb +5.4%), kurse Irani ka rritje prej 1.6% (mes viteve 1975-2014, rritja mesatare vjetore ka qen\u00eb 5.7%).\u00a0Industria\u00a0mbulon 44% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb s\u00eb Iranit dhe 60% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb s\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudite.\u00a0Bujq\u00ebsia\u00a0mbulon 10% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb s\u00eb Iranit dhe 1-2% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb s\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudite. Irani ka\u00a0rezerva shtet\u00ebrore\u00a0n\u00eb vler\u00eb prej 80 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh (15% n\u00eb form\u00eb ari), kurse Arabia Saudite ka rezerva n\u00eb vler\u00eb prej 734.5 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh, nga to, 1.8% n\u00eb form\u00eb rezervash ari (Arabia Saudite, me rezervat shtet\u00ebrore, paguan \u00e7do vit shkollimin e rreth 150.000 t\u00eb rinjve saudit\u00eb n\u00eb shkollat m\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta per\u00ebndimore).\u00a0Borxhi i jasht\u00ebm\u00a0i Iranit n\u00eb vitin 2013 ishte 7.2 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb (n\u00eb vitin 2012 ka qen\u00eb 17.3 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb, dmth ka paguar p\u00ebr vet\u00ebm 2 vitet e fundit 76% t\u00eb vler\u00ebs), kurse i Arabis\u00eb Saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb 136 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Irani ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb popullsi dhe\u00a0dend\u00ebsi\u00a0t\u00eb saj, por Arabia Saudite ka popullsi m\u00eb t\u00eb re n\u00eb mosh\u00eb. 60% e popullsis\u00eb saudite \u00ebsht\u00eb\u00a0n\u00ebn mosh\u00ebn 30 vje\u00e7, e n\u00eb Iran 55% (sipas cenzusit t\u00eb vitit 2011). Rreth 3% e saudit\u00ebve dhe 6% e iranian\u00ebve jan\u00eb\u00a0mbi mosh\u00ebn 65 vje\u00e7.\u00a0Jet\u00ebgjat\u00ebsia mesatare\u00a0n\u00eb Iran \u00ebsht\u00eb 73,7 vje\u00e7, gjersa n\u00eb Arabi Saudite 74,8 vje\u00e7. 1 n\u00eb 3 iranian\u00eb, dikund rreth 27 milion\u00eb syresh, jetojn\u00eb n\u00eb\u00a0zona rurale, kurse n\u00eb Arabi Saudite, vet\u00ebm 15% e popullsis\u00eb, dikund af\u00ebr 5 milon\u00eb syresh. Irani i ka 27.1 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb\u00a0fuqi pun\u00ebtore\u00a0(1\/3 e tyre gra) e Arabia Saudite 8 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb fuqi pun\u00ebtore (1\/5 gra).\u00a0Nataliteti\u00a0n\u00eb Iran \u00ebsht\u00eb mes 17 e 18 promilash, gjersa n\u00eb Arabi Saudite mes 18 e 19 promilash.\u00a0Mortaliteti\u00a0n\u00eb Iran \u00ebsht\u00eb 1.86 promila e n\u00eb Arabi Saudite 14.6 promila. Mortaliteti foshnjor: Iran \u2013 5 n\u00eb 1000 lindje; Arabi Saudite \u2013 15 n\u00eb 1000 lindje. 85% e iranian\u00ebve dijn\u00eb\u00a0shkrim-lexim, sikurse 87% e saudit\u00ebve. Irani ka\u00a0t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr luft\u00eb\u00a03 her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb banor\u00eb sesa Arabia Saudite (39.6 milion\u00eb dhe 13 milion\u00eb).<\/p>\n

Irani dhe Arabia Saudite jan\u00eb dy nga pes\u00eb vendet e vetme n\u00eb bot\u00eb ku\u00a0homoseksualiteti d\u00ebnohet me vrasje. N\u00eb Arabi Saudite grat\u00eb nuk lejohen t\u00eb\u00a0vozisin\u00a0vetura. N\u00eb Iran lejohen. Sipas matjeve t\u00eb Forumit Ekonomik Bot\u00ebror, n\u00eb Arabi Saudite\u00a0kostoja mujore e jetes\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb llogaritur t\u00eb jet\u00eb 4 her\u00eb m\u00eb e shtrenjt\u00eb sesa n\u00eb Iran. N\u00eb vitin 2013, n\u00eb Arabi Saudite kan\u00eb ndodhur 265\u00a0vet\u00ebvrasje, kurse n\u00eb Iran 2215. N\u00eb Iran ka 2-fish\u00a0krime\u00a0dhe 3-fish vrasje\u00a0m\u00eb shum\u00eb se n\u00eb Arabi Saudite.<\/p>\n

Irani i ka 319\u00a0aeroporte\u00a0(5 n\u00eb 1 milion banor\u00eb) e Arabia Saudite 214 apo 8 n\u00eb 1 milion banor\u00eb. Irani ka\u00a0porte detare\u00a0q\u00eb pranojn\u00eb tonazh m\u00eb t\u00eb madh mall\u00ebrash n\u00eb vit dhe ka rrjetin hekurudhor\u00a0(8442 km) 6 her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb sesa Arabia Saudite. 1 n\u00eb 5 iranian\u00eb dhe 1 n\u00eb 3 saudit\u00eb ka\u00a0automjet. Arabia Saudite ka\u00a0rrjetin e autostradave\u00a0n\u00eb gjat\u00ebsi totale prej 3.348 km, 4.5 her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb sesa Irani. Por, Irani ka\u00a0rrjetin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm rrugor\u00a0me gjat\u00ebsi 160.366 km, apo 3.5 her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb sesa Arabia Saudite.<\/p>\n

Irani i ka 407\u00a0avion\u00eb luftarak\u00eb, Arabia Saudite 287. Irani i ka 2800-3000\u00a0tanke, gjersa Arabia Saudite 1000-1200. Arabia Saudite i ka mbi 5400\u00a0automjete t\u00eb r\u00ebnda ushtarake, derisa Irani i ka mbi 1300 sosh.\u00a0Mosha minimale p\u00ebr ushtri\u00a0n\u00eb Iran \u00ebsht\u00eb 18 e n\u00eb Arabi Saudite 17 vje\u00e7 (por n\u00eb Arabi sh\u00ebrbimi ushtarak asnj\u00ebher\u00eb s\u2019ka qen\u00eb i detyruesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr popullsin\u00eb). Irani ka\u00a0personel ushtarak\u00a03 her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madh sesa Arabia Saudite, por Irani harxhon vet\u00ebm 62 dollar\u00eb n\u00eb vit\u00a0p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ushtar, kurse Arabia Saudite 824 dollar\u00eb. Arabia Saudite p\u00ebrvjet\u00a0importon arm\u00eb konvencionale\u00a0me vler\u00eb prej 838 milion\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh, gjersa Irani me vler\u00eb prej 283 milion\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n

Irani e ka\u00a0forc\u00ebn ushtarake detare\u00a0m\u00eb t\u00eb zhvilluar sesa Arabia Saudite. Flota Detare Iraniane i ka 3 korveta, 6 fregata, 111 luftanije mbrojt\u00ebse, 32 n\u00ebndet\u00ebse dhe 7 mina detare. Flota Saudite i ka 4 korveta, 7 fregata, 39 luftanije mbrotj\u00ebse, 0 n\u00ebndet\u00ebse dhe 3 mina detare. Por, Arabia Saudite e ka\u00a0forc\u00ebn ajrore\u00a0m\u00eb t\u00eb zhvilluar sesa Irani. Ajo ka 746 avion\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm ushtarak dhe 200 helikopter\u00eb, gjersa Irani i ka 530 avion\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm ushtarak dhe 140 helikopter\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Si p\u00ebrfundim i k\u00ebtij kapitulli, me pak fjal\u00eb mund t\u00eb thuhet se Irani ka parametra makroekonomik m\u00eb t\u00eb arrir\u00eb sesa Arabia Saudite, por qytetar\u00ebt e k\u00ebsaj t\u00eb fundit kan\u00eb mir\u00ebqenie ekonomike m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe. Gjersa n\u00eb aspektin ushtarak, Irani bindsh\u00ebm ka ushtrin\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mobilizuar, m\u00eb profesionale dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb mirarmatosur. Ndon\u00ebse lufta e drejtp\u00ebrdrejt e k\u00ebtyre dy fuqive rajonale nuk duket se do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00eb terma afatshkurt\u00ebr, p\u00ebr \u00e7do eventualitet, duhet th\u00ebn\u00eb se Irani ushtarakisht do ta d\u00ebrmonte Ushtrin\u00eb e dob\u00ebt saudite, por politikisht do t\u00eb diskreditohej dhe do t\u00eb humbiste shum\u00eb. K\u00ebtu q\u00ebndron poenta e\u00a0status quo-s s\u00eb tyre \u2013 Irani nuk guxon ta sulmoj\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite pasiq\u00eb do t\u00eb deklasohej politikisht, gjersa Arabia Saudite nuk guxon ta sulmoj\u00eb Iranin pasiq\u00eb do t\u00eb deklasohej ushtarakisht.<\/p>\n

5. Lufta Civile n\u00eb Jemen<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lufta Civile n\u00eb Jemen nisi m\u00eb 19 mars t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti. Konflikti zhvillohet nd\u00ebrmjet qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb presidentit t\u00eb zgjedhur Abd Rabuh Mansur Hadi, n\u00eb nj\u00eb an\u00eb, dhe forcave rebele t\u00eb fisit Huthi e ish-presidentit Ali Abdullah Saleh, n\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr. Gjithashtu edhe disa nj\u00ebsi t\u00eb deg\u00ebs s\u00eb Al Kaid\u00ebs n\u00eb Gadishullin Arabik kan\u00eb n\u00eb kontroll territore t\u00eb caktuara t\u00eb Jemenit. Situata eskaloi m\u00eb 22 mars, kur huth\u00ebt e nis\u00ebn ofensiv\u00ebn duke sulmuar qytet-portin e Adenit, nj\u00eb bastion t\u00eb presidentit Hadi, i cili m\u00eb 25 mars u detyrua t\u00eb largohet nga vendi dhe t\u00eb ik n\u00eb Riad, prej ku i b\u00ebri thirrje Arabis\u00eb Saudite q\u00eb ta mbroj\u00eb legjitimitetin e presidenc\u00ebs s\u00eb zgjedhur jemenase. Po at\u00eb dit\u00eb, Arabia Saudite formoi koalicionin p\u00ebr t\u00eb nisur sulmet ajrore kund\u00ebr rebel\u00ebve n\u00eb Jemen. Ironike apo jo, Arabia Saudite gjat\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb ekzistenc\u00ebs s\u00eb vet 83 vje\u00e7are asnj\u00ebher\u00eb s\u2019ka mbajtur zgjedhje qendrore e, n\u00eb nivel lokal s\u2019i lejon gjysm\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb \u2013 grat\u00eb \u2013 q\u00eb t\u00eb votojn\u00eb, e, prapseprap e p\u00ebrdor si alibi t\u00eb intervenimit legjitimitetin demokratik. Nj\u00ebjt\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb edhe shumica d\u00ebrrmuese e aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb koalicionit t\u00eb prir\u00eb nga saudit\u00ebt. P.sh., presidenti i Egjiptit, gjeneral al-Sisi, i cili ka pranuar t\u00eb b\u00ebhet pjes\u00eb e koalicionit p\u00ebr ta mbrojtur presidentin e zgjedhur Hadi, \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00eb ai i cili n\u00eb korrik 2013 e rr\u00ebzoi me grusht-shteti presidentin e zgjedhur prej mbi 13.2 milion\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve egjiptian\u00eb, Muhamed Morsin. Por, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb hera e par\u00eb q\u00eb Arabia Saudite sulmon popuj t\u00eb tjer\u00eb \u201cn\u00eb mbrojtje t\u00eb legjitimitetit\u201d t\u00eb marionetave t\u00eb saj fqinje. N\u00eb vitin 2011, gjat\u00eb Pranver\u00ebs Arabe, pati d\u00ebrguar forcat tok\u00ebsore t\u00eb Ushtris\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019i sulmuar t\u00eb rinjt\u00eb q\u00eb po protestonin kund\u00ebr dinastis\u00eb al-Halifa n\u00eb Bahrejn. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb po p\u00ebrkrahte maksimalisht rebel\u00ebt e opozit\u00ebn siriane kund\u00ebr presidentit Asad, n\u00eb Bahrejn po shtypte direkt me ushtrin\u00eb e vet protestuesit p\u00ebr ta mbrojtur monarkin\u00eb aleate.<\/p>\n

Huth\u00ebt jan\u00eb nj\u00eb fis q\u00eb i p\u00ebrkasin sektit shiit Zaidi, q\u00eb kap\u00ebrthen rreth 40% t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb Jemenit. Ata pretendojn\u00eb se presidenti Hadi \u00ebsht\u00eb kthyer n\u00eb marionet\u00eb t\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudite dhe se po p\u00ebrkrah nj\u00ebsit\u00eb e al-Kaid\u00ebs. Kurse, saudit\u00ebt dhe Hadi pretendojn\u00eb se huth\u00ebt jan\u00eb ve\u00e7se klon\u00ebt e milicive shiite t\u00eb Hezbollahut n\u00eb Liban. N\u00eb fakt, Jemeni llogaritet t\u00eb jet\u00eb shteti ku al-Kaida ka rekrutuar m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti t\u00eb rinj. Konflikti sektar n\u00eb vend ka qen\u00eb \u2013 ndon\u00ebse i shushatur \u2013 historikisht prezent. Shp\u00ebrthimi i fundit vet\u00ebm sa e nxorri k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb pah.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebshtu, n\u00eb mbrojtje t\u00eb Hadit, Arabia Saudite dhe aleat\u00ebt e saj m\u00eb 25 mars nis\u00ebn fushat\u00ebn ajrore t\u00eb koduar \u201cStuhia vendimtare\u201d. M\u00eb 21 prill Arabia Saudite deklaroi se do t\u2019i jap fund operacioneve ajrore dhe se do t\u00eb nis hapin e dyt\u00eb, at\u00eb t\u00eb zgjidhjes politike, t\u00eb titulluar \u201cRikthimi i shpres\u00ebs\u201d. Megjithat\u00eb, koalicioni ka vazhduar me sulme sporadike ajrore me pasoj\u00eb dhjet\u00ebra jet\u00eb civil\u00ebsh jemenas.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, vet\u00eb saudit\u00ebt dhe qeveria e Hadit e pranojn\u00eb se p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr fushat\u00ebs nj\u00ebmujore ajrore, praseprap, 1\/3 e territorit \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb duart e rebel\u00ebve Huthi apo t\u00eb p\u00ebrkrah\u00ebsve t\u00eb ish-presidentit Saleh. Madje, ministri i jasht\u00ebm i Bahrejnit, aleatit saudit, Halid bin Ahmed Al-Halifa pranon se akoma ka rrezik nga huth\u00ebt, p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr fushat\u00ebs ajrore. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, dy analist\u00eb t\u00eb \u201cThe New York Times\u201d, Eric Schmitt dhe Michael Gordon theksojn\u00eb se futja e Arabis\u00eb Saudite n\u00eb qorrsokak diplomatik n\u00eb intervenimin ajror ndaj Jemenit, paraqet nj\u00ebherazi d\u00ebshmin\u00eb e limitimit t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm t\u00eb strategjis\u00eb amerikane n\u00eb rajon (http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/04\/23\/world\/middleeast\/yemen-airstrikes.html?_r=0). Nd\u00ebrsa Bill Law, nj\u00eb analist i shquar i BBC-s\u00eb, shkruante se lufta saudite n\u00eb Jemen, e udh\u00ebhequr nga ministri i mbrojtjes, princi Mohamed, i biri 35 vje\u00e7 i mbretit Selman, \u00ebsht\u00eb d\u00ebshtim politik e operativ (http:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/columns\/saudi-war-going-badly-wrong-689564484). P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr k\u00ebsaj, kur huth\u00ebt dhe sidomos ish-presidenti Saleh ofruan gatishm\u00ebrin\u00eb e tyre p\u00ebr negociata, Rijad Jasini, ministri i jasht\u00ebm i qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb Hadit ka kund\u00ebrshtuar arm\u00ebpushimin e negociatat e propozuara nga Salehu, duke shtuar se \u201cs\u2019ka vend p\u00ebr Salehun n\u00eb asnj\u00eb bisedim e proces t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm politik n\u00eb Jemen\u201d. Pakashum\u00eb k\u00ebtu mund t\u2019i gjendet shpjegimi faktit q\u00eb, sikurse n\u00eb rastin e Siris\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, edhe n\u00eb Jemen tash, t\u00eb d\u00ebrguarit e Sekretarit t\u00eb P\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb OKB-s\u00eb, nj\u00eb pas nj\u00eb po japin dor\u00ebheqje nga detyra e negociatorit, duke theksuar pamund\u00ebsin\u00eb e gjetjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb gjuheje t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt mes pal\u00ebve nd\u00ebrluftuese.<\/p>\n

Por historia e problemeve t\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00ebve me Jemenin nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm e dit\u00ebve t\u00eb sotme. Para saudit\u00ebve, edhe egjiptian\u00ebve \u201cu zuri sharra n\u00eb gozhd\u00eb\u201d n\u00eb Jemen. N\u00eb vitet \u201960, gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs Civile Jemenase, Naseri i Egjiptit d\u00ebrgoi n\u00eb Jemen gati 60.000 ushtar\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahje t\u00eb forcave republikane. Shum\u00eb shpejt u detyrua t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet mes humbjesh katastrofike, aq sa sot, n\u00eb Egjipt, nd\u00ebrhyrja n\u00eb Jemen quhet \u201cVietnami i Egjiptit\u201d. Mohamed Hasanien Hejkal, nj\u00eb prej njer\u00ebzve m\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrt t\u00eb presidentit Naser, e quajti Jemenin nj\u00eb \u201cvullkan t\u00eb fjetur n\u00eb jug t\u00eb Gadishullit Arabik, t\u00eb cilin po e ngacmove e u zgjua, llava e tij ka p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb rajonin\u201d. Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr arsye pse Arabia Saudite po ka dhe do t\u00eb ket\u00eb problem t\u2019i mposht\u00eb huth\u00ebt \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe prania e madhe e shiit\u00ebve Zaidi n\u00eb Arabi Saudite, gjegj\u00ebsisht mu n\u00eb kufi me zaidit\u00eb e Jemenit. K\u00ebto provinca zaidi n\u00eb Arabi Saudite n\u00eb fakt kan\u00eb qen\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Jemenit gjer m\u00eb 1934, kur u aneksuan nga Arabia Saudite. Sulmet saudite t\u00eb 2009-s kund\u00ebr huth\u00ebve t\u00eb Jemenit i pat\u00ebn dal\u00eb \u201cdardh\u00eb me bisht\u201d. Madje, huth\u00ebt, jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb zbraps\u00ebn Ushtrin\u00eb e pap\u00ebrgaditur saudite, por edhe p\u00ebr jav\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00ebra mbajt\u00ebn n\u00ebn kontroll fshatra kufitare saudite.<\/p>\n

Por cila \u00ebsht\u00eb historia e Jemenit? Ajo q\u00eb Jemenit i jep nam nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti historik q\u00eb Jemeni ka qen\u00eb vendi i par\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb q\u00eb ka importuar kokrrat e kafes\u00eb nga Etiopia n\u00eb shekullin XV. N\u00eb shekullin XVI e tutje, nga Jemeni filloi transportimi i kafes\u00eb tejendan\u00eb globit. N\u00eb Jemen, mendohet q\u00eb mistik\u00ebt sufist\u00eb vendor\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00ebt n\u00eb bot\u00eb q\u00eb e p\u00ebrdor\u00ebn kafen\u00eb p\u00ebr pije.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb histori, Jemeni ka qen\u00eb pjes\u00eb e Perandoris\u00eb Osmane gjer m\u00eb 1918. Lufta \u00e7lirimtare antiosmane pati nisur p\u00ebrfundimisht m\u00eb 1911, ndon\u00ebse p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb shekujve ka pasur rebelime t\u00eb atyk\u00ebtushme kund\u00ebr Port\u00ebs s\u00eb Lart\u00eb. N\u00eb Perandorin\u00eb Osmane, Jemeni ka qen\u00eb elajet, e m\u00eb pas vilajet m\u00eb vete. Pjesa jugore e lindore e tij, mes viteve 1869 dhe 1963 ka qen\u00eb protektorat britanik, me qend\u00ebr portin e Adenit, i cili g\u00ebzoi prosperitet aq t\u00eb lart\u00eb e bum t\u00eb atill\u00eb, sa q\u00eb gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore ka qen\u00eb porti i dyt\u00eb m\u00eb aktiv n\u00eb bot\u00eb, pas portit detar t\u00eb Nju Jorkut. Veriu, q\u00eb\u00a0de facto\u00a0ishte protektorat saudit, m\u00eb 1962 e fitoi pavar\u00ebsin\u00eb me emrin Republika Arabe e Jemenit. Jugu m\u00eb 1963 nisi luft\u00ebn p\u00ebr pavar\u00ebsi kund\u00ebr proteksionizmit britanik, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt i zbuan m\u00eb 1967 dhe m\u00eb 1970 shpalli veten Republik\u00eb Popullore Demokratike, n\u00ebn sundimin e marksist\u00ebve t\u00eb FN\u00c7-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebsisoj, Jugu mbeti me sistem socialist dhe me lidhje t\u00eb ngushta me sovjetik\u00ebt e Bllokun Lindor, kurse Veriu me sistem kapitalist, me lidhje t\u00eb ngushta me Arabin\u00eb Saudite, ShBA-t\u00eb dhe shtetet e tjera kapitaliste. Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet mes dy Jemen\u00ebve, n\u00eb dallim prej Koreve apo Gjermanive, ishin miq\u00ebsore, ndon\u00ebse m\u00eb 1972 e 1979 pati konflikt t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr ushtarak n\u00eb kufi mes tyre. M\u00eb 1986, n\u00eb jugun socialist plasi nj\u00eb luft\u00eb civile, kurse ardhja e Gorba\u00e7ovit n\u00eb krye t\u00eb BRSS-s\u00eb nxiti dy vendet t\u00eb nisnin negociatat p\u00ebr unifikim, gj\u00eb q\u00eb edhe ngjau m\u00eb 1990, ndon\u00ebse, lufta civile e vitit 1994 shp\u00ebrfaqi se bashkimi n\u00eb realitet akoma s\u2019ish arritur efektivisht. Jemeni verior proamerikan n\u00eb vitet 1978-1990 udh\u00ebheqej nga Ali Abdullah Saleh, i cili vazhdoi t\u00eb jet\u00eb president i Jemenit t\u00eb bashkuar edhe n\u00eb vitet 1990-2011, kur dha dor\u00ebheqje pas demonstratave t\u00eb protestuesve t\u00eb \u201cPranver\u00ebs Arabe\u201d. Salehu \u00ebsht\u00eb shia, kurse presidenti i zgjedhur pas tij, Hadi, \u00ebsht\u00eb suni. (Hadi ka qen\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebspresident gjat\u00eb presidenc\u00ebs s\u00eb Salehut, n\u00eb vitet 1994-2011). Prandaj, Jemeni \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb miniatur\u00eb e konfliktit t\u00eb madh sektar iraniano-saudit dhe shia-sunni. Iraku, Bahrejni, Jemeni e deri diku Siria, Libani e Palestina, jan\u00eb ske\u00e7e t\u00eb vogla t\u00eb teatrit t\u00eb madh t\u00eb p\u00ebrplasjeve e pik\u00ebprerjeve gjeostrategjike, gjeopolitike, gjeoekonomike dhe kulturore mes Iranit dhe Arabis\u00eb Saudite.<\/p>\n

Por cilat qen\u00eb deri m\u00eb tani pasojat e k\u00ebtij intervencionizmi saudit n\u00eb Jemen?<\/p>\n

Z\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebsi i Komitetit Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Kryqit t\u00eb Kuq (ICRC), Claire Feghali, m\u00eb 27 prill, n\u00eb nj\u00eb konferenc\u00eb p\u00ebr shtyp nga Riadi deklaroi se \u201clufta dhe pasojat e saj e kan\u00eb kthyer Jemenin 100 vite mbrapa, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimit t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs, posa\u00e7\u00ebrisht n\u00eb provincat e Adenit, Dhaleas dhe Taizit…\u201d \u201cKryqi i Kyq\u201d ka t\u00ebrhequr v\u00ebrejtjen poashtu duke potencuar se n\u00eb Jemen kemi t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb me nj\u00eb katastrof\u00eb humanitare.<\/p>\n

Sipas raporteve t\u00eb OKB-s\u00eb, sulmet e Arabis\u00eb Saudite i kan\u00eb vrar\u00eb af\u00ebr 1100 persona (prejt tyre, 550 civil\u00eb; nga ta rreth 400 f\u00ebmij\u00eb) dhe kan\u00eb plagosur mbi 4000 jemenas \u2013 prej tyre af\u00ebr 1200 civil\u00eb; nga ta af\u00ebr 200 f\u00ebmij\u00eb. Z\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebs t\u00eb kryengrit\u00ebsve Huthi pretendojn\u00eb se nga fushata ajrore saudite kan\u00eb vdekur 2500 civil\u00eb. Vet\u00ebm m\u00eb 20 mars, kur avion\u00ebt saudit\u00eb bombarduan nj\u00eb xhami, u vran\u00eb 142 civil\u00eb. Sipas raporteve t\u00eb UNICEF-it, 150.000 \u00ebsht\u00eb numri i civil\u00ebve t\u00eb shp\u00ebrngulur si pasoj\u00eb e bombardimeve saudite, kurse af\u00ebr 10 milion\u00eb jemenas, nga gjith\u00eb lufta civile n\u00eb vend, jan\u00eb n\u00eb rrezik dhe kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr ndihma humanitare, pasiq\u00eb kan\u00eb mungesa ushqimi, prej tyre 1 milion\u00eb jan\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb. 2 milion\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb poashtu s\u2019kan\u00eb qasje n\u00eb shkolla, si pasoj\u00eb e bombardimeve. Kurse, \u201cOxfam\u201d-i raporton se rreth 50% e popullsis\u00eb jemenase, dikund af\u00ebr 13 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb, jan\u00eb pa qasje n\u00eb uj\u00eb t\u00eb pijsh\u00ebm. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, qeveria n\u00eb ekzil e Hadit akuzon rebel\u00ebt Huthi se kan\u00eb vrar\u00eb rreth 1000 dhe kan\u00eb plagosur 5000 persona. Organizata \u201cMedia Officer\u201d n\u00eb Jemen ka akuzuar Arabin\u00eb Saudite se po p\u00ebrdor arm\u00eb me efekte radiologjike, t\u00eb ndaluara nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtarisht.<\/p>\n

E, si dhurat\u00eb, princi saudit Al Valid bin Talali i ka premtuar nga nj\u00eb vetur\u00eb \u201cBentley\u201d secilit nga 100 pilot\u00ebve q\u00eb kan\u00eb marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb bombardimin e Jemenit dhe n\u00eb vrasjen e k\u00ebtyre viktimave t\u00eb pafajshme (http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/blogs-trending-32417773). P\u00ebrndryshe, bin Talali \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb prej njer\u00ebzve m\u00eb t\u00eb pasur n\u00eb bot\u00eb, pasuria e t\u00eb cilit llogaritet af\u00ebr 300 milion\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh amerikan\u00eb. N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, n\u00eb shum\u00eb raste, qytetar\u00eb jemenas t\u00eb kryeqytetit Sana dhe p\u00ebrkrah\u00ebs t\u00eb huth\u00ebve opozitar\u00eb kan\u00eb organizuar protesta antisaudite, ku kund\u00ebrshtohej bombardimi saudit i Jemenit dhe monarkia saudite quhej \u201cMbret\u00ebria e ISIS-it\u201d.<\/p>\n

Ritvan Rizk, analist politik nga Libani, deklaroi p\u00ebr \u201cPress TV\u201d se Arabia Saudite ka synime q\u00eb ta fus Jemenin n\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb civile, sikurse t\u00ebr\u00eb bot\u00ebn arabe, e k\u00ebsisoj t\u2019i sh\u00ebrbej\u00eb interesave izraelite. Kurse, ish-kryeministri sunit libanez Saad Hariri deklaroi se mb\u00ebshtet fushat\u00ebn ajrore saudite, si nj\u00eb \u201cfront t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt arab n\u00eb kund\u00ebrv\u00ebnie ndaj influenc\u00ebs iraniane n\u00eb rajon.\u201d N\u00eb nj\u00eb linj\u00eb ka qen\u00eb reagimi edhe i studiuesit sunit libanez, Hajrallah Hajrallah, i cili tha p\u00ebr stacionin televiziv saudit \u201cAl Arabiya News\u201d se Arabia Saudite duhet t\u2019i prish\u00eb planet ekspansioniste iraniane n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, Irak, Liban, Siri e Jemen. Nga Libani reagim ka ardhur edhe nga aleatja e Iranit, l\u00ebvizja shiite \u201cHezbollah\u201d, e cila ka d\u00ebnuar sulmin ajror saudit. Sekretari i p\u00ebrgijthsh\u00ebm i saj, Hasan Nasrallahu ka th\u00ebn\u00eb se \u201c\u00ebsht\u00eb koha q\u00eb mysliman\u00ebt e arab\u00ebt t\u2019i thon\u00eb \u2018mjaft\u2019 Arabis\u00eb Saudite…\u201d Sipas tij, \u201ct\u00eb gjitha ideologjit\u00eb ekstremiste t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndara n\u00ebp\u00ebr bot\u00eb q\u00eb po shkat\u00ebrrojn\u00eb popuj e vende, vijn\u00eb prej Arabis\u00eb Saudite.\u201d Reagimi ka ardhur edhe nga \u201cshefat\u201d e Hezbollahut, Garda Revolucionare e Iranit, nj\u00ebsia elitare ushtarake e vendit. Komandanti i saj, gjeneralmajor Mohamed Ali Xhafari, deklaroi se Arabia Saudite \u00ebshr\u00eb duke dh\u00ebn\u00eb shqelmat e fundit para kolapsit t\u00eb saj edhe e quajti monarkin\u00eb si tradh\u00ebtare dhe agjente t\u00eb sionizmit. Menj\u00ebher\u00eb ka ardhur p\u00ebrgjigjia nga z\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebsi saudit i fushat\u00ebs \u201cStuhia vendimtare\u201d, gjeneralbrigade Ahmed Asiri, i cili deklaroi se koalicioni i rezervon vetes t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb lejuar apo ndaluar avion\u00ebt e huaj n\u00eb Jemen, duke specifikuar rastin kur, dit\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, kishin kthyer mbrapa nj\u00eb avion iranian.<\/p>\n

Kjo d\u00ebshmon p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrhyrjen e qart\u00eb nga jasht\u00eb (dhe jo vet\u00ebm nga Arabia Saudite apo Irani) n\u00eb konfliktin e brendsh\u00ebm jemenas dhe p\u00ebr ndikimin q\u00eb ky konflikt ka p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasur n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb rajonin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Krahasimi i parametrave mes Iranit dhe Arabis\u00eb Saudite Por, ku q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb n\u00eb raport me n\u00ebjra-tjetr\u00ebn k\u00ebto dy vende n\u00eb parametra ekonomik, demografik, infrastrukturor dhe ushtarak? Arabia Saudite ka mbi 29 milion\u00eb\u00a0banor\u00eb, 1\/3 e t\u00eb cil\u00ebve jan\u00eb emigrant\u00eb. 97% e saudit\u00ebve jan\u00eb mysliman\u00eb, prej tyre 82% sunit\u00eb. Irani ka mbi 83 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb, 99% e tyre […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":411,"featured_media":9820,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1717,1716,1000],"ppma_author":[768],"class_list":["post-4996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-arabia-saudite","tag-irani","tag-politike-e-jashtme"],"authors":[{"term_id":768,"user_id":411,"is_guest":0,"slug":"fitim-salihu","display_name":"Fitim Salihu","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Fitim-Salihu-e1701268592693.png","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Fitim-Salihu-e1701268592693.png"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Salihu","first_name":"Fitim","description":"Fitim Salihu \u00ebsht\u00eb politolog dhe merret kryesisht me studime kulturore e me studime t\u00eb Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, me theks t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr Lindjen e Mesme, ShBA-n\u00eb dhe Amerik\u00ebn Latine. P\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb ka punuar si redaktor i kultur\u00ebs n\u00eb gazet\u00ebn \"Z\u00ebri\", shkruan si kolumnist p\u00ebr gazet\u00ebn kroate \"Bilten\" dhe punon si hulumtues shkencor p\u00ebr disa institute vendore e t\u00eb jashtme."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4996","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/411"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4996"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4996\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10568,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4996\/revisions\/10568"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4996"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=4996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}