{"id":5048,"date":"2016-06-21T12:06:14","date_gmt":"2016-06-21T10:06:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5048"},"modified":"2024-11-05T12:08:05","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T10:08:05","slug":"ribalancimi-i-fuqise-dhe-shtetndertimi-ne-lindjen-e-mesme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/ribalancimi-i-fuqise-dhe-shtetndertimi-ne-lindjen-e-mesme\/","title":{"rendered":"Ribalancimi i fuqis\u00eb dhe shtetnd\u00ebrtimi n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme"},"content":{"rendered":"
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N\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb politike gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb multipolare, Lindja e Mesme, q\u00eb nga \u2018Pranvera Arabe\u2019, \u00ebsht\u00eb ngujuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb rreth vicioz jostabiliteti. N\u00eb thelb t\u00eb politik\u00ebs nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare aty q\u00ebndron konkurrenca e rivaliteti mes fuqish rajonale, superfuqish dhe joshtetesh p\u00ebr dominim. Disa shtete rrezikojn\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrjen, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb konflikteve e luft\u00ebrave civile ku nd\u00ebrluftojn\u00eb edhe shtete e joshtete t\u00eb tjer\u00eb. Brenda shoq\u00ebrive t\u00eb fragmentuara, t\u00eb katapultuara arbitrarisht n\u00eb shtete t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta, ka komb-shtete n\u00eb form\u00ebsim e sip\u00ebr, simbolikisht e strukturalisht.<\/p>\n

Shikuar sociopolitikisht, n\u00eb k\u00ebto shoq\u00ebri ideohen e marrin jet\u00eb ideologji utopike e pragmatike nga m\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshmet; ka etni t\u00eb dallueshme n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb afirmimit politik, dhe sisteme politike m\u00eb rr\u00ebshqitje v\u00ebrdall\u00eb demokracis\u00eb (populiste, larg liberales) politike e t\u00eb qeverisjes. Shumica jan\u00eb ekonomi dinamike n\u00eb zhvillim, me baz\u00eb n\u00eb resurse natyrore, por q\u00eb qeverisen sipas modeleve nga m\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshmet t\u00eb balancit mes tregut e shtetit.<\/p>\n

Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet Turqi-BE u nd\u00ebrlikuan edhe m\u00eb pasi Bundestagu miratoi rezolut\u00ebn q\u00eb njeh vrasjet sistematike t\u00eb armen\u00ebve nga Perandoria Osmane, m\u00eb 1916-1917, si gjenocid. P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr insistimit t\u00eb pal\u00ebs gjermane se miratimi i saj nuk e b\u00ebn qeverin\u00eb aktuale turke p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebse p\u00ebr vrasjet, udh\u00ebheqja turke reagoi ashp\u00ebr. Presidenti Erdogan i quajti k\u00ebto \u2018akuza t\u00eb papranueshme\u2019, \u2018shantazh\u2019 dhe \u2018hipokrizi\u2019 t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa mospajtime shtes\u00eb \u00e7uan edhe n\u00eb dor\u00ebheqjen e kryediplomatit evropian n\u00eb Ankara. Kjo vjen pas rezistenc\u00ebs s\u00eb tij t\u00eb hapur ndaj reformave t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuara nga BE p\u00ebr heqjen e vizave Schengen (duke keqperceptuar k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr si karot\u00eb politike t\u00eb lidhur me kriz\u00ebn humanitare n\u00eb Siri sesa reforma shtetnd\u00ebrtimi demokratik), dhe p\u00ebr\u00e7arjeve t\u00eb udh\u00ebheqjes politike q\u00eb \u00e7uan n\u00eb dor\u00ebheqjen e Kryeministrit (m\u00eb proevropian se ai) Davutoglu. Turqia gjithashtu po p\u00ebrballet me k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb siguris\u00eb: sulme terroriste n\u00eb zona urbane, t\u00eb kryera nga \u2018Shteti Islamik\u2019 (ISIS) dhe grupe kurde q\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb krijimin e nj\u00eb shteti tyrin, kan\u00eb marr\u00eb rreth treqind jet\u00eb brenda nj\u00eb viti.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Siri lufta civile ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb vitin e pest\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa fushata sistematike ushtarake kund\u00ebr ISIS-it n\u00eb t\u00eb dytin, pa arritur t\u00eb eliminoj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb grup terrorist q\u00eb kontrollon goxha territor dhe k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon ekzistenc\u00ebn e k\u00ebtyre shteteve. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 fuqive globale (ShBA-s\u00eb e aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb saj Per\u00ebndimor\u00eb, dhe Rusis\u00eb, shpesh n\u00eb an\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta, p\u00ebrmes luft\u00ebs ajrore dhe aleat\u00ebve n\u00eb terren) dhe forcave qeveritare siriane e irakiane, aty nd\u00ebrluftojn\u00eb shum\u00eb fraksione ushtarake e paramilitare. N\u00eb Siri ka kat\u00ebr pal\u00eb kryesore nd\u00ebrluftuese: Federata e Siris\u00eb Veriore (p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb peshmerg\u00ebt kurd\u00eb e shiit\u00ebt), forcat opozitare, forcat qeveritare t\u00eb Assadit, dhe ISIS. N\u00eb Irak jan\u00eb tri: qeveria (mb\u00ebshtetur nga ShBA dhe aleat\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb Per\u00ebndimor\u00eb), ba\u2019athist\u00ebt e xhihadist\u00ebt, dhe shiit\u00ebt. Siria 17-milion\u00ebshe ka p\u00ebsuar katastrofalisht: rreth gjysm\u00eb milioni t\u00eb vrar\u00eb dhe t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 11.5 milion\u00eb t\u00eb zhvendosur (7,5 milion\u00eb brenda vendit dhe 4 milion\u00eb refugjat\u00eb jasht\u00eb tij). Zhvillimet gjetk\u00eb n\u00eb rajon (n\u00eb Egjipt, Libi, Jemen, Izrael, territoret palestineze) shkojn\u00eb nga kufizimi i m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm i liris\u00eb s\u00eb shprehjes e shkelja e t\u00eb drejtave t\u00eb tjera njer\u00ebzore, e deri te fragmentimet deri n\u00eb kolaps t\u00eb qeverisjes dhe konflikte t\u00eb armatosura e sulme terroriste.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb kontekstin e islamizimit politik t\u00eb Turqis\u00eb n\u00ebn Erdoganin, retorika shpesh e p\u00ebrflakur e t\u00eb cilit mbart mesazh t\u00eb vagullt ndaj ekstremizmit islamik, dhe krizat politike e t\u00eb siguris\u00eb p\u00ebrbrenda dhe n\u00eb rajon, k\u00ebto f\u00ebrkime diplomatike shtojn\u00eb paparashikueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e drejtimit t\u00eb zhvillimeve politike e t\u00eb siguris\u00eb dhe t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve t\u00eb saj politike, ekonomike e t\u00eb siguris\u00eb me BE-n\u00eb dhe ShBA-n\u00eb (sidomos p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mospajtimeve rreth konfliktit izraelito-palestinez dhe G\u00fclenit, i cili gjendet n\u00eb ekzil n\u00eb ShBA). M\u00eb tej, marr parasysh pretendimin e Turqis\u00eb si fuqi \u2018multirajonale\u2019 p\u00ebr ndikim gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb madh politik n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, Azin\u00eb Qendrore, Kaukaz dhe Ballkan, dhe interesat ekonomike gjithandej, kjo do t\u00eb ket\u00eb reperkusione. Shikuar nga nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb analitike \u2018turkocentrike\u2019, kjo dinamik\u00eb e re ngre pyetjen n\u00ebse politika e jashtme turke e \u2018zero problemeve\u2019 me fqinj\u00ebt, me baz\u00eb n\u00eb doktrin\u00ebn \u2018neoosmane\u2019 t\u00eb ideuar nga Davutoglu, po b\u00ebhet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb pak kredibile. Pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse \u2018neoosmanizmi\u2019 \u2013 si \u2018perandori simbolike\u2019, e perceptuar si ideologji me vlera, parime e stimuj koherent\u00eb politik\u00eb, ekonomik\u00eb dhe kulturor\u00eb, por e ekzekutuar me nj\u00eb doz\u00eb t\u00eb theksuar autoritarizmi \u2013 ka nisur s\u00eb venituri. Pra, a gjendet \u2018modeli turk\u2019 \u2013 shoq\u00ebri myslimane relativisht e hapur dhe e demokratizueshme dhe me influenc\u00eb kulturore p\u00ebrreth, ekonomi n\u00eb zhvillim t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb, qeverisje laike formalisht demokratik (ndon\u00ebse me nj\u00eb elit\u00eb autoritare-populiste n\u00eb pushtet q\u00eb vazhdimisht e konteston dhe e g\u00ebrryen at\u00eb nga brenda), dhe shtet i fuqish\u00ebm n\u00eb sken\u00ebn nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare \u2013 si simbol ndikimi para nj\u00eb rreziku serioz shk\u00ebrmoqjeje?<\/p>\n

Brenda Turqis\u00eb vazhdon rr\u00ebnimi i kapitalit politik t\u00eb elit\u00ebs udh\u00ebheq\u00ebse, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rezistenc\u00ebs qytetare ndaj synimit t\u00eb Erdoganit p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur pushtetin me \u00e7do kusht, autoritarizmit t\u00eb tij politikisht islamizues, dhe presionit t\u00eb tyre p\u00ebr demokratizim. S\u00eb dyti, largimin e Davotuglut, qasjen \u2018zero probleme me fqinj\u00ebt\u2019 (nj\u00eb lloj kuazi-internacionalizmi liberal, ekonomik) shpejt po e z\u00ebvend\u00ebson qasja (Realiste, ekskluzivisht politike) konkurruese e rivalizuese, edhe me fuqit\u00eb globale aleate, p\u00ebr dominim politik, si \u2018fuqi e fort\u00eb\u2019, n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme. S\u00eb treti, vet\u00ebperceptimi edhe si \u2018fuqi e but\u00eb\u2019 n\u00eb rajonet p\u00ebrreth tregon tendenc\u00ebn e saj p\u00ebr tejshtrirje, edhe n\u00eb shoq\u00ebri e shtete me vlera jokompatibile \u2013 kulturalisht, politikisht, ekonomikisht e n\u00eb aspektin e qeverisjes \u2013 me t\u00eb sajat.<\/p>\n

Sidoqoft\u00eb, politika e fuqis\u00eb mbetet p\u00ebrcaktuese e dinamik\u00ebs s\u00eb shtetnd\u00ebrtimit dhe politik\u00ebs nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme. Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet Turqi-ShBA karakterizohen nga mospajtime rreth riaranzhimit t\u00eb balanc\u00ebs s\u00eb fuqis\u00eb n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, ato Turqi-Rusi me konkurrenc\u00eb t\u00eb tensionuar p\u00ebr ndikim n\u00eb Siri, Azin\u00eb Qendrore e Kaukaz. N\u00eb rajon, marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet Turqi-Izrael karakterizohen nga mosbesimi, nd\u00ebrsa ato Turqi-Iran dhe Turqi-Arabi Saudite nga konkurrenca p\u00ebr dominim n\u00eb rajon. P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr marr\u00ebveshjes p\u00ebr programin b\u00ebrthamor, marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet Iran-ShBA akoma jan\u00eb mosbesuese, e ato Iran-Rusi t\u00eb mira. N\u00eb rajon, marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet Iran-Izrael mbeten t\u00eb ngrira, nd\u00ebrsa ato Iran-Arabi Saudite dhe Iran-Turqi t\u00eb tensionuara (n\u00eb Siri Irani zhvillon \u2018luft\u00eb pion\u00ebsh\u2019 kund\u00ebr t\u00eb dyjave). Aleanca amerikano-saudite duket se po rikonceptohet (n\u00eb kontekstin e frik\u00ebs saudite nga fuqizimi i Iranit dhe armatosjes s\u00eb saj si politik\u00eb kund\u00ebrbalancimi, vahabizmit si burim i radikalizmit islamik, dhe r\u00ebnd\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb naft\u00ebs saudite p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb amerikane), nd\u00ebrsa rivaliteti i tensionuar saudito-iranian dhe saudito-turk mund t\u00eb rriten. Roli i Arabis\u00eb Saudite n\u00eb rajon do t\u00eb varet shum\u00eb nga realizimi i \u2018Vizionit 2030\u2019 p\u00ebr diversifikimin e ekonomis\u00eb, n\u00eb \u00e7\u2019drejtim do t\u00eb ket\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb dob\u00ebsive n\u00eb qeverisje dhe tregun e pun\u00ebs. N\u00eb fund t\u00eb fundit, marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare politike p\u00ebr, n\u00eb dhe rreth Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme po b\u00ebhen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb multipolare.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb implikim i k\u00ebsaj \u00ebsht\u00eb se politika nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb me n\u00eb qend\u00ebr Per\u00ebndimin dhe e bazuar vet\u00ebm n\u00eb premisa Per\u00ebndimore, gj\u00eb q\u00eb shtron nevoj\u00ebn e rikonceptimit t\u00eb saj duke marr\u00eb p\u00ebr baz\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr dinamika e paradigma. Implikimi i dyt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se shuarja e dallimit mes politik\u00ebs s\u00eb brendshme dhe asaj nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare ndodh edhe n\u00eb mjedise regjimesh jodemokratike, jo vet\u00ebm n\u00eb ato me demokraci liberale. Por, dallimi q\u00ebndron te \u2018finaliteti\u2019: zhvillimet n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme jan\u00eb t\u00eb paparashikueshme dhe pakontrollueshme, me implikime t\u00eb rrezikshme p\u00ebr shtetnd\u00ebrtimin dhe demokratizimin e shoq\u00ebrive t\u00eb saj.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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  N\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb politike gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb multipolare, Lindja e Mesme, q\u00eb nga \u2018Pranvera Arabe\u2019, \u00ebsht\u00eb ngujuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb rreth vicioz jostabiliteti. N\u00eb thelb t\u00eb politik\u00ebs nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare aty q\u00ebndron konkurrenca e rivaliteti mes fuqish rajonale, superfuqish dhe joshtetesh p\u00ebr dominim. Disa shtete rrezikojn\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrjen, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb konflikteve e luft\u00ebrave civile ku nd\u00ebrluftojn\u00eb edhe […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":469,"featured_media":9600,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1247],"ppma_author":[1190],"class_list":["post-5048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-multipolaritike"],"authors":[{"term_id":1190,"user_id":469,"is_guest":0,"slug":"artan-qollaku","display_name":"Artan \u00c7ollaku","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8a4d7e153604cf729156e6520a24eaee4813927d60bdc6e30ab63747b36f274e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","user_url":"","last_name":"\u00c7ollaku","first_name":"Artan","description":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/469"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5048"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5048\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9601,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5048\/revisions\/9601"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9600"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5048"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}