{"id":5056,"date":"2016-06-16T12:01:06","date_gmt":"2016-06-16T10:01:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5056"},"modified":"2024-11-05T12:02:58","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T10:02:58","slug":"rusia-dhe-ekonomia-pas-naftes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/rusia-dhe-ekonomia-pas-naftes\/","title":{"rendered":"Rusia dhe ekonomia pas naft\u00ebs"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u00eb v\u00ebsh n\u00eb dukje m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se q\u00eb duhet r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb e industris\u00eb s\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb ruse. N\u00eb shkall\u00eb globale, Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb konkurruese n\u00eb produktet e mbrojtjes, ato t\u00eb lansimit n\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb, energjin\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore, burimet minerale, dhe teknologjin\u00eb e informacionit. Por asnj\u00ebra nga k\u00ebto industri nuk krahasohet me eksportin e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit. P\u00ebr rus\u00ebt e zakonsh\u00ebm, ekonomia e vendit duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb strukturuar rreth shk\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb fu\u00e7ive t\u00eb naft\u00ebs me makina dhe telefona t\u00eb zgjuar. Problemi, natyrisht, \u00ebsht\u00eb se pasi q\u00eb \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb pingul, k\u00ebto fu\u00e7i blejn\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb pak importe.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb ardhurat nga nafta, sikur t\u00eb ardhurat nga shumica e mallrave, jan\u00eb ciklike, dhe r\u00ebniet e papritura nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb pazakonta. Por, do t\u00eb ishte gabim p\u00ebr vende si Rusia q\u00eb t\u00eb supozojn\u00eb se \u00e7mimet do t\u00eb rriten p\u00ebrs\u00ebri. R\u00ebnia e fundit e \u00e7mimeve \u00ebsht\u00eb tregues i nj\u00eb ndryshim t\u00eb papar\u00eb strukturor n\u00eb sektorin e energjis\u00eb \u2013 ndryshim ky q\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb implikime t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme politike p\u00ebr vendet prodhuese t\u00eb naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Gjat\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb nj\u00ebzet\u00eb nafta ishte burim i kufizuar; \u00e7mimi i saj, dukej, vet\u00ebm mund t\u00eb shkonte p\u00ebrpjet\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa nafta leht\u00eb e qasshme \u00ebsht\u00eb shtjerr\u00eb, nxjerrja e saj nga burime t\u00eb reja, gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb margjinale, \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e shtrenjt\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa \u00e7mimet jan\u00eb ngritur, pronar\u00ebt me fat t\u00eb fushave t\u00eb gazit e naft\u00ebs me kosto t\u00eb ul\u00ebt \u2013 sidomos Rusia dhe prodhuesit n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme \u2013 kan\u00eb arritur t\u00eb kapin margjina gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha.<\/p>\n

Por, si\u00e7 ndodh shpesh, \u00e7mimet e larta dhe kreativiteti njer\u00ebzor jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb bashk\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ofruar alternativa p\u00ebr nj\u00eb mall t\u00eb kufizuar. N\u00eb industrin\u00eb e energjis\u00eb kemi par\u00eb p\u00ebrparime teknologjike q\u00eb kan\u00eb buruar si nga brenda industris\u00eb (revolucioni i naft\u00ebs nga shisti i argjil\u00ebs n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara), ashtu edhe jasht\u00eb saj (energjia e lir\u00eb e rip\u00ebrt\u00ebrishme).<\/p>\n

N\u00eb dit\u00ebt e sotme, n\u00eb lokacionet m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatshme,\u00a0energjia e er\u00ebs\u00a0dhe\u00a0energjia diellore\u00a0mund t\u00eb kushtojn\u00eb aq lir\u00eb sa 0,03 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr kilovat-or\u00eb. Dhe mallrat \u2018e gjelbra\u2019 t\u00eb konsumit po b\u00ebhen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb konkurruese. P\u00ebr shembull, n\u00eb mars 2016 u lansua zyrtarisht n\u00eb treg makina krejt\u00ebsisht elektrike Tesla Model 3, dhe at\u00eb me \u00e7mim relativisht t\u00eb arsyesh\u00ebm prej 35,000 dollar\u00ebsh. Brenda nj\u00eb muaji, numri i porosivetejkaloi\u00a0shum\u00ebn prej 14 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebve, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb at\u00eb lansimin m\u00eb t\u00eb suksessh\u00ebm t\u00eb nj\u00eb produkti n\u00eb histori.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrsa burime t\u00eb reja t\u00eb energjis\u00eb gjithashtu po b\u00ebhen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb konkurruese, dinamika e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb industris\u00eb s\u00eb naft\u00ebs ka marr\u00eb udh\u00eb kah nj\u00eb ndryshim fundamental. Prodhimi i energjis\u00eb m\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i lidhur p\u00ebr burime t\u00eb pamjaftueshme e gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta; n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt\u00ebn, ashtu sikur n\u00eb industrit\u00eb e tjera t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb, \u00e7mimet ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb ulen.<\/p>\n

Ky revolucion teknologjik do t\u00eb ket\u00eb implikime serioze politike. N\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb nj\u00ebzet\u00eb, vendet n\u00eb zhvillim kan\u00eb ndjekur dy rrug\u00eb t\u00eb suksesit ekonomik. Nj\u00ebra \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrvet\u00ebsimi i parimeve t\u00eb kapitalizmit Per\u00ebndimor, lejimi i rrjedhjes s\u00eb kapitalit t\u00eb huaj brenda tregut, dhe shfryt\u00ebzimi i p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsis\u00eb krahasuese t\u00eb burimeve t\u00eb lira t\u00eb pun\u00ebs brenda vendit p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjetur vend n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e globalizuar n\u00eb zhvillim. Rruga tjet\u00ebr ishte zbulimi dhe zhvillimi i burimeve t\u00eb bollshme t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, t\u00eb gjendeshe n\u00eb kap\u00ebrcyell t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike globale n\u00eb lul\u00ebzim e sip\u00ebr, si dhe nxjerrja e rent\u00ebs n\u00eb dispozicion.<\/p>\n

Karakteristikat ekonomike t\u00eb industris\u00eb s\u00eb naft\u00ebs kan\u00eb form\u00ebsuar peizazhin politik n\u00eb vendet prodhuese t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. Qeverit\u00eb n\u00eb rajone t\u00eb bekuara me naft\u00eb t\u00eb lir\u00eb nganj\u00ebher\u00eb i kan\u00eb konsideruar t\u00eb ardhurat q\u00eb rrjedhin nga ajo si shenj\u00eb bekimi hyjnor dhe kan\u00eb shpenzuar t\u00eb holla sikur ajo kurr\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb shpenzohej.<\/p>\n

Disa, si Ahmed Zaki Yamani, ish-minist\u00ebr saudit i naft\u00ebs, kan\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr v\u00ebrejtjen se kjo qasje nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e q\u00ebndrueshme. \u201cTridhjet\u00eb vjet m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb sasi t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb naft\u00ebs \u2013 dhe asnj\u00eb bler\u00ebs\u201d, ka\u00a0th\u00ebn\u00eb\u00a0ai n\u00eb vitin 2000. \u201cKoh\u00ebs s\u00eb Gurit i ka ardhur fundi jo p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb munges\u00ebs s\u00eb gurit, dhe Koh\u00ebs s\u00eb Naft\u00ebs do t\u2019i vij\u00eb fundi shum\u00eb koh\u00eb para se t\u00eb na shpenzohet nafta.\u201d Por, deri koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit paralajm\u00ebrime t\u00eb tilla jan\u00eb injoruar pothuajse pa dallim.<\/p>\n

Vet\u00ebm me shfaqjen e fundit t\u00eb lul\u00ebzimit ka filluar t\u00eb pranohet gjer\u00ebsisht r\u00ebnd\u00ebsia e nevoj\u00ebs p\u00ebr ndryshime. N\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite, detyra p\u00ebr t\u00ebrealizuar \u2018\u00ebndrrat e ndryshme\u2019 t\u00eb k\u00ebtij brezi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhme pas karbonit\u00a0i ka r\u00ebn\u00eb mbi supe Z\u00ebvend\u00ebsit t\u00eb Princit t\u00eb Kuror\u00ebs, Mohammed bin Salman. N\u00eb Rusi, Presidenti Vladimir Putin koh\u00ebt e fundit\u00a0em\u00ebroi\u00a0ish-Z\u00ebvend\u00ebskryeministrin Aleksei Kudrin p\u00ebr t\u00eb hartuar nj\u00eb program t\u00eb ri, liberal, ekonomik p\u00ebr vendin.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb dizajnimin e reformave t\u00eb tyre, qeverit\u00eb e t\u00eb dyja vendeve do t\u00eb tregoheshin t\u00eb zgjuara n\u00ebse do t\u00eb kishin parasysh se industria e energjis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb prej shum\u00eb shembujve se si teknologjia po i b\u00ebn burimet e rralluara \u2013 qoft\u00eb kapitalin, pun\u00ebn ose nj\u00eb mall t\u00eb caktuar \u2013 gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb jorelevante. Ekonomia e shekullit t\u00eb nj\u00ebzetenj\u00ebt\u00eb po p\u00ebrcaktohet nga trajektorja eksponenciale q\u00eb karakterizon rritjen e njohurive dhe zhvillimin e teknologjis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Rruga q\u00eb kan\u00eb marr\u00eb vende si Kina drejt rritjes ekonomike dal\u00ebngadal\u00eb po mbyllet nd\u00ebrsa puna e lir\u00eb po b\u00ebhet m\u00eb pak p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi n\u00eb nj\u00eb ekonomi globale t\u00eb dijes. Rritja e re ekonomike e form\u00ebs s\u00eb barazimit me vende m\u00eb t\u00eb zhvilluara do t\u00eb bazohet n\u00eb replikimin e korniz\u00ebs institucionale t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs dhe investime n\u00eb arsim e qendra teknologjike t\u00eb stilit t\u00eb Lugin\u00ebs s\u00eb Silikonit.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse ekonomia e nj\u00eb vendi do q\u00eb t\u00eb lul\u00ebzoj\u00eb, ajo do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb dije dhe mjedisin m\u00eb t\u00eb favorsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr shnd\u00ebrrimin e asaj dijeje n\u00eb rritje ekonomike. N\u00eb aspektin e politikave, kjo n\u00ebnkupton v\u00ebnien e theksit n\u00eb arsim dhe zbatimin e reformave institucionale. Prioritetet m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb vendosjen e shtetit t\u00eb s\u00eb drejt\u00ebs, n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti krijimin e nj\u00eb sistemi t\u00eb fort\u00eb e t\u00eb pavarur gjyq\u00ebsor q\u00eb mund t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb t\u00eb drejtat e pron\u00ebs n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb duhur.<\/p>\n

Fatkeq\u00ebsisht, t\u00eb dish rrug\u00ebn p\u00ebrpara nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb si t\u00eb marr\u00ebsh rrug\u00ebn e duhur. Gjat\u00eb viteve nga fundi i industrializimit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb vitet 1960 e deri n\u00eb lansimin e Perestrojk\u00ebs, dy dekada m\u00eb von\u00eb, vendi kishte p\u00ebrjetuar nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb amullie. Ngurrimi i gjer\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb kryer reformat e nevojshme p\u00ebr nj\u00eb bot\u00eb pas naft\u00ebs mund t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb rraskapitje t\u00eb ngjashme n\u00eb vitet n\u00eb vijim.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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T\u00eb v\u00ebsh n\u00eb dukje m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se q\u00eb duhet r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb e industris\u00eb s\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb ruse. N\u00eb shkall\u00eb globale, Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb konkurruese n\u00eb produktet e mbrojtjes, ato t\u00eb lansimit n\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb, energjin\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore, burimet minerale, dhe teknologjin\u00eb e informacionit. Por asnj\u00ebra nga k\u00ebto industri nuk krahasohet me eksportin e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit. P\u00ebr rus\u00ebt […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":339,"featured_media":9594,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1366,1643,1239],"ppma_author":[351],"class_list":["post-5056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-ekonomia","tag-nafta","tag-rusia"],"authors":[{"term_id":351,"user_id":339,"is_guest":0,"slug":"vitaly-kazakov","display_name":"Vitaly Kazakov","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1517230122343.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1517230122343.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Kazakov","first_name":"Vitaly","description":"Vitaly Kazakov \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb investitor profesionist i kapitalit me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se dhjet\u00eb vjet p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb n\u00eb menaxhimin e portofolit dhe hulumtimin e investimeve."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5056","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/339"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5056"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5056\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9595,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5056\/revisions\/9595"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5056"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5056"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5056"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5056"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}