{"id":5296,"date":"2020-03-31T15:29:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T13:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=5296"},"modified":"2024-11-12T16:58:33","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T14:58:33","slug":"sa-kushton-nje-set-pakosh-stimuluese-fiskale-per-krizen-ekonomike-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/sa-kushton-nje-set-pakosh-stimuluese-fiskale-per-krizen-ekonomike-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Sa kushton nj\u00eb set pakosh stimuluese fiskale p\u00ebr kriz\u00ebn ekonomike 2020?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u20ac460 milion\u00eb p\u00ebr mbi 633 mij\u00eb qytetar\u00eb e rreth 48 mij\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrje<\/em><\/p>\n

Ndon\u00ebse jemi vet\u00ebm n\u00eb fund t\u00eb muajit t\u00eb tret\u00eb t\u00eb 2020-\u00ebs, tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb q\u00eb bota \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb recesion (i.e. r\u00ebnie e Bruto Produktit Vendor (BPV) n\u00eb s\u00eb paku dy tremujor\u00ebsh t\u00eb nj\u00ebpasnj\u00ebsh\u00ebm). \u00c7\u00ebshtja n\u00eb pyetje tash \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse nga recesioni do t\u00eb kalojm\u00eb n\u00eb depresion (ekonomik). Mes ekonomist\u00ebve, nuk ka pajtueshm\u00ebri p\u00ebr definimin e depresionit, ndon\u00ebse shpesh p\u00ebrdoren indikator\u00ebt si r\u00ebnia vjetore prej m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 10% e BPV-s\u00eb apo nj\u00eb recesion q\u00eb zgjat\u00eb p\u00ebr dy e m\u00eb shum\u00eb vite. Megjithat\u00eb, karakteristikat socio-ekonomike t\u00eb depresionit jan\u00eb t\u00eb qarta: r\u00ebnie e BPV-s\u00eb, rritje e \u00e7mimeve, shuarje e nd\u00ebrmarrjeve, rritje e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb, e rritje e varf\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb ende her\u00ebt dhe ka shum\u00eb t\u00eb panjohura p\u00ebr ta vler\u00ebsuar sakt\u00eb ndikimin ekonomik t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb shkaktuar nga COVID-19. Nj\u00eb\u00a0vler\u00ebsim i hersh\u00ebm<\/a>\u00a0i Organizat\u00ebs p\u00ebr Bashk\u00ebpunim e Zhvillim Ekonomik ishte se efekti i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm n\u00eb vendet e zhvilluara do t\u00eb jet\u00eb r\u00ebnie e prodhimit prej 20-25%. Sipas saj, p\u00ebr \u00e7do muaj t\u00eb kontrollit strikt t\u00eb qarkullimit (q\u00eb natyrisht se \u00ebsht\u00eb i domosdosh\u00ebm), BPV do t\u00eb jet\u00eb p\u00ebr 2 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt se q\u00eb do t\u2019mund t\u00eb ishte. N\u00ebse kontrolli strikt vazhdon p\u00ebr 3 muaj, BPV-ja pritet t\u00eb jet\u00eb 4-6 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt se q\u00eb do t\u2019mund t\u00eb ishte. \u00c7ka do t\u00eb thot\u00eb kjo p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn?<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr 2020-\u00ebn, Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar (FMN) ka parashikuar rritje reale t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs prej 4%. Supozojm\u00eb q\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb ishte e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb n\u00ebse nuk do t\u00eb kishte pandemi. N\u00eb skenarin m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb, ku vet\u00ebm 1 muaj do t\u00eb zgjaste kontrolli i qarkullimit, rritja vjetore reale do t\u2019ishte 2.6% apo rreth \u20ac186 milion\u00eb. N\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb keq, t\u00eb nj\u00eb izolimi 6 mujor, do t\u2019kishim tkurrje t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb prej 8% apo rreth \u20ac560 milion\u00eb m\u00eb pak se vitin paraprak. Natyrisht se k\u00ebto jan\u00eb llogari t\u00eb hershme, por mjaftuesh\u00ebm orientuese p\u00ebr ta kuptuar seriozitetin e kriz\u00ebs dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb masa serioze.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u2019ju p\u00ebrgjigjur kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb 2020-\u00ebs, propozoj nj\u00eb set pakosh stimuluese fiskale n\u00eb vler\u00eb prej rreth \u20ac460 milion\u00eb, nga t\u00eb cilat do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitonin mbi 633 mij\u00eb qytetar\u00eb e rreth 48 mij\u00eb biznese. Ky set \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar me synim targetimin e pasojave ky\u00e7e t\u00eb depresionit. Natyrisht se mbeten edhe sektor\u00eb e kategori tjera q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb k\u00ebtu e q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr ndihm\u00eb var\u00ebsisht nga ecuria e kriz\u00ebs. Megjithat\u00eb, ato duhet vler\u00ebsuar gjat\u00eb rrug\u00ebs. Nd\u00ebrsa, konkretisht, 12.5% e k\u00ebtij seti synon luftimin e varf\u00ebris\u00eb, 55.6% synon luftimin e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb, 29.5% synon ruajtjen dhe rigjall\u00ebrimin e nd\u00ebrmarrjeve, dhe 2.4% synon stimulimin e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor dhe atyre t\u00eb rendit e siguris\u00eb publike, q\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb ball\u00eb t\u00eb betej\u00ebs. Ndon\u00ebse koh\u00ebzgjatja e pandemis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e panjohur, k\u00ebto pako jan\u00eb synuar si masa afatmesme p\u00ebr nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb 3 mujore. T\u00eb gjitha llogaritjet jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb vet\u00ebm n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave q\u00eb aktualisht jan\u00eb publike, e t\u00eb cilat n\u00eb disa raste nuk jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rejat dhe mund t\u00eb mos jen\u00eb m\u00eb te detajuarat apo m\u00eb t\u00eb saktat.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr ta financuar k\u00ebt\u00eb set, jan\u00eb gjetur 10 burime potenciale t\u00eb t\u00eb hyrave (4 t\u00eb brendshme e 6 t\u00eb jashtme) q\u00eb kapin vler\u00ebn prej mbi \u20ac782.5 milion\u00eb. Pra, n\u00ebse duam ta vler\u00ebsojm\u00eb fizibilitetin financiar t\u00eb pakove t\u00eb propozuara, at\u00ebher\u00eb e shohim se seti kushton sa 58.8% e potencialit financiar q\u00eb ka Kosova n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb koh\u00eb krize.\u00a0 N\u00eb vijim jan\u00eb paraqitur detajet e pakove dhe burimet potenciale p\u00ebr financimin e tyre.<\/p>\n

a.<\/em>\u00a0Pako p\u00ebr mbrojtje sociale\u00a0 –\u00a0<\/strong>\u20ac56.7 milion\u00eb p\u00ebr mbi 355 mij\u00eb qytetar\u00eb<\/em><\/p>\n

Rritja e varf\u00ebris\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb karakteristik\u00eb ky\u00e7e e depresioneve. Ata q\u00eb ve\u00e7se jan\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebr para depresionit, gjat\u00eb depresionit vuajn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb meq\u00eb ose ju zvog\u00eblohen t\u00eb ardhurat ose ju bie fuqia bler\u00ebse p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, ose t\u00eb dyja k\u00ebto. Nj\u00eb skenar i till\u00eb do t\u2019kishte ndikim tejet t\u00eb madh negative n\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn kur dihet se, n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb\u00a0podacima<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb publikuara nga Agjencia e Statistikave t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs (ASK), n\u00eb tremujorin e fundit t\u00eb 2019-\u00ebs, ishin 355,348 qytetar\u00eb q\u00eb mbrohen nga skemat e ndryshme sociale.<\/p>\n

Q\u00eb t\u00eb evitohen apo zbuten pasojat e depresionit, duhet nj\u00eb pako p\u00ebr mbrojtje sociale. Nj\u00eb pako e till\u00eb, e cila parasheh rritje t\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha skemave sociale p\u00ebr 25-200%, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb 3 mujore, do t\u00eb kushtonte rreth \u20ac56.7 milion\u00eb euro dhe do t\u2019i ndihmonte drejtp\u00ebrdrejt mbi 355 mij\u00eb qytetar\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Konkretisht, rritja do t\u00eb ishte si n\u00eb vijim:<\/p>\n

– Rritje 200%<\/strong>\u00a0p\u00ebr skem\u00ebn e ndihm\u00ebs sociale;<\/p>\n

– Rritje 50%<\/strong>\u00a0p\u00ebr pensionet bazike t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs, pensionet e personave me aft\u00ebsi t\u00eb kufizuar, skem\u00ebn e t\u00eb verb\u00ebrve, pensionet e familjeve t\u00eb d\u00ebshmor\u00ebve dhe invalid\u00ebve t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, dhe skem\u00ebn p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00ebt me aft\u00ebsi t\u00eb kufizuara;<\/p>\n

– Rritje 25%<\/strong>\u00a0p\u00ebr pensionet kontributpaguese t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs, pensionet e Trep\u00e7\u00ebs, pensionet e Forcave t\u00eb Siguris\u00eb s\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs, pensionet e Trupave Mbrojt\u00ebve t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs, dhe veteran\u00ebt;<\/p>\n

– \u20ac200 p\u00ebr person<\/strong>\u00a0p\u00ebr personat e moshuar dhe pa p\u00ebrkujdesje familjare, p\u00ebr personat e vendosur n\u00eb Institutin Special n\u00eb Shtime, dhe p\u00ebr personat e vendosur n\u00eb sht\u00ebpit\u00eb e komunitetit n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat<\/a>\u00a0p\u00ebr llogaritjen e k\u00ebsaj shume jan\u00eb marrur nga publikimi i ASK-s\u00eb p\u00ebr tregun e pun\u00ebs n\u00eb tremujorin e fundit t\u00eb vitit 2019. N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb vlera t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e sakt\u00eb p\u00ebr 2020, n\u00eb llogarin\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimtare \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb vler\u00eb potenciale e inflacionit prej 3%.<\/p>\n

b.<\/em>\u00a0Pako p\u00ebr subvencionimin e pagave p\u00ebr pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt e sektorit privat –\u00a0<\/strong>\u20ac253 milion\u00eb p\u00ebr 248 mij\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb<\/em><\/p>\n

Detajet e k\u00ebsaj pakoje ve\u00e7se jan\u00eb\u00a0publikuar<\/a>\u00a0m\u00eb her\u00ebt. Aty \u00ebsht\u00eb specifikuar burimi i t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave, sektor\u00ebt, pagat, dhe mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e financimit. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, nuk po i p\u00ebrs\u00ebritim detajet k\u00ebtu. Si p\u00ebrmbledhje: me supozimin se pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt e sektorit publik do t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb paguhen pa ndonj\u00eb ndryshim, kjo pako parasheh subvencionim e 75% t\u00eb pag\u00ebs mesatare bruto sektoriale p\u00ebr 3 muaj p\u00ebr pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt e sektorit privat. Vlera e saj do t\u00eb ishte rreth \u20ac253 milion\u00eb dhe do t\u2019i subvenciononte rreth 248 mij\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb t\u00eb sektorit privat.<\/p>\n

c.<\/em>\u00a0<\/strong>Pako p\u00ebr stimulimin e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe atyre t\u00eb rendit dhe siguris\u00eb publike –\u00a0<\/strong>\u20ac11.1 milion\u00eb p\u00ebr rreth 30\u00a0<\/em>.\u00a0<\/strong>mij\u00eb mjek\u00eb e polic\u00eb<\/em><\/p>\n

Padyshim se n\u00eb vij\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb frontit gjat\u00eb pandemis\u00eb jan\u00eb mjek\u00ebt, infermier\u00ebt, dhe t\u00eb gjith\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt tjer\u00eb t\u00eb sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsis\u00eb. P\u00ebr zbatimin e masave t\u00eb rekomanduara nga ta, jan\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt e rendit dhe siguris\u00eb publike. Duke qen\u00eb se roli i k\u00ebtyre dy kategorive \u00ebsht\u00eb thelb\u00ebsor, ata duhet motivuar p\u00ebr pun\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb\u00a0podacima<\/a>\u00a0nga ASK, n\u00eb vitin 2017, Kosova kishte 15,057 t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuar n\u00eb sektor\u00ebt e rendit dhe siguris\u00eb publike dhe 14,324 t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuar n\u00eb sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsi. Nd\u00ebrsa, n\u00eb vitin 2018, n\u00eb sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsi ishin gjithsej\u00a013,180<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuar n\u00eb sektorin publik. N\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb trendeve nga e kaluara, dhe duke e lejuar nj\u00eb marzh\u00eb gabimi maksimale p\u00ebr ta llogaritur koston m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb mundshme, mund t\u00eb supozojm\u00eb se n\u00eb 2020, jan\u00eb rreth 15,200 t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuar n\u00eb rend e siguri publike, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsi mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti 14,500 t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuar.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb motivohen p\u00ebr pun\u00ebn q\u00eb po e b\u00ebjn\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00ebn e pandemis\u00eb, k\u00ebtyre dy kategorive do t\u2019ju ndahej nga \u20ac100, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht \u20ac150 p\u00ebr person, p\u00ebr 3 muaj. Pra, nga \u20ac100 n\u00eb muaj p\u00ebr secilin pun\u00ebtor t\u00eb rendit dhe siguris\u00eb publike pa dallim, dhe nga \u20ac150 euro n\u00eb muaj p\u00ebr secilin pun\u00ebtor t\u00eb sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsis\u00eb pa dallim, p\u00ebr 3 muaj. E t\u00ebr\u00eb kjo pako do t\u00eb kushtonte rreth \u20ac11.1 milion\u00eb.<\/p>\n

d<\/em>. Pako p\u00ebr subvencionimin e shpenzimeve fikse t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrjeve –\u00a0<\/strong>\u20ac44.8 milion\u00eb p\u00ebr rreth 48 mij\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrje<\/em><\/p>\n

N\u00eb koh\u00eb depresioni, ato q\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti jan\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrjet e vogla dhe t\u00eb mesme. Ndon\u00ebse secili rregull ka p\u00ebrjashtim, sa m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl nd\u00ebrmarrja, aq m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb kriza. E Kosova rreth 98-99% t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrjeve i ka mikro me 1-9 t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuar. Pra, nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e mir\u00eb e tyre p\u00ebrb\u00ebhen nga t\u00eb vet\u00ebpun\u00ebsuarit, e pjesa tjet\u00ebr nga nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i vog\u00ebl i pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve. Kapaciteti financiar i shum\u00eb prej tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb i vog\u00ebl, gj\u00eb q\u00eb i b\u00ebn tejet t\u00eb ndjeshme gjat\u00eb krizave. K\u00ebshtu, disa prej tyre i largojn\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt nga puna, e disa t\u00eb tjera mbyllen. P\u00ebr ta leht\u00ebsuar k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb, duhet nj\u00eb pako stimuluese fiskale p\u00ebr k\u00ebto nd\u00ebrmarrje.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrve\u00e7 subvencionimit t\u00eb pagave t\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve t\u00eb sektorit privat, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb parashikuar n\u00eb pakon e p\u00ebrshkruar m\u00eb lart, nevojitet nj\u00eb pako stimuluese fiskale p\u00ebr shpenzimet tjera fikse sidomos t\u00eb mikrond\u00ebrmarrjeve. N\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb\u00a0raportit<\/a>\u00a0vjetor t\u00eb Administrat\u00ebs Tatimore t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs p\u00ebr 2018, numri i biznesve q\u00eb kan\u00eb deklaruar qarkullim m\u00eb t\u00eb madh se 0 ka qen\u00eb 40,147. Nd\u00ebrsa, n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave nga ASK, numri net i nd\u00ebrmarrjeve t\u00eb regjistruara n\u00eb 2019 (i.e. t\u00eb regjistruara minus t\u00eb shuara) ishte 8,235. K\u00ebshtu, b\u00ebhen gjithsej 48,382 nd\u00ebrmarrje, 99% e t\u00eb cilave i bie t\u00eb jet\u00eb 47,898. Sa mund t\u2019ju duhet k\u00ebtyre nd\u00ebrmarrjeve?<\/p>\n

N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb llogaritet p\u00ebraf\u00ebrsisht k\u00ebrkesa e nd\u00ebrmarrjeve p\u00ebr para \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur shuma e kredive t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrjeve p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb vitit 2019 si most\u00ebr p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuese. N\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb\u00a0podacima<\/a>\u00a0nga Banka Qendrore e Kosov\u00ebs (BQK), vlera e p\u00ebrgjithshme e kredive p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrmarrjet, n\u00eb bankat komerciale dhe korporatat tjera depozituese, ishte rreth \u20ac895.8 milion\u00eb. Duhet pasur parasysh se nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e k\u00ebsaj shume i takon nd\u00ebrmarrjeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, t\u00eb cilat nuk jan\u00eb parapar\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb nga kjo pako. Pra, k\u00ebrkesa e mikrond\u00ebrmarrjeve me siguri se \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl se kaq.<\/p>\n

Gjithashtu, meq\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e mir\u00eb e shpenzimeve fikse t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrjeve \u00ebsht\u00eb parapar\u00eb t\u00eb mbulohet p\u00ebrmes pakos p\u00ebr subvencionomin e pagave t\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve, at\u00ebher\u00eb hap\u00ebsira fiskale p\u00ebr t\u00eb tjerat zvog\u00eblohet. K\u00ebshtu, n\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar ku 5% e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrjeve p\u00ebr kredi n\u00eb vitin 2019 do t\u00eb ofrohej si subvencion p\u00ebr 3 muaj, kjo do t\u00eb kushtonte rreth \u20ac44.8 milion\u00eb. P\u00ebrmes saj, do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb mbulohej nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e shpenzimeve t\u00eb mikrond\u00ebrmarrjeve, si ato p\u00ebr qira dhe obligime komunale, p\u00ebr 3 muaj.<\/p>\n

e.<\/em>\u00a0Pako p\u00ebr kreditimin e bizneseve –\u00a0<\/strong>\u20ac89.6 milion\u00eb p\u00ebr rreth 48 mij\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrje<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb izolimit, nd\u00ebrmarrjeve p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht ju bie aktiviteti. K\u00ebshtu, ato kan\u00eb m\u00eb pak qarkullim e m\u00eb pak fitim. Rrjedhimisht, ju ngushtohen mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e operimit dhe investimit, gj\u00eb q\u00eb ndikon negativisht n\u00eb prodhim e pun\u00ebsim. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 kredive q\u00eb ofrohen n\u00eb bankat komerciale, duhet krijuar nj\u00eb pako me kushte m\u00eb t\u00eb favorshme p\u00ebr likuiditetin e nd\u00ebrmarrjeve.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrve\u00e7 pagave t\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve dhe subvencionimit t\u00eb shpenzimeve tjera fikse, mikrond\u00ebrmarrjeve dhe atyre t\u00eb vogla e t\u00eb mesme, do t\u2019iu ofrohej nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr marrjen e kredive me 0% interes dhe me grace periudh\u00eb p\u00ebr 6 muaj. Shuma maksimale e kredive do t\u2019ishte \u20ac10,000. Vlera e p\u00ebrgjithshme e k\u00ebsaj pakoje do t\u2019ishte rreth \u20ac89.6 milion\u00eb, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb 10% e kredive t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrjeve gjat\u00eb vitit 2019. Kredidh\u00ebnia do t\u00eb zgjaste deri n\u00eb shtjerrjen e mjeteve dhe kthimi i kredive do t\u00eb b\u00ebhej deri n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb maksimale prej 3 vitesh.<\/p>\n

Financimi<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se buxheti i Kosov\u00ebs p\u00ebr vitin 2020 nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i mjaftuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u2019i mbuluar shpenzimet e planifikuara aty plus k\u00ebto pako. I t\u00ebr\u00eb seti me 5 pako kushton sa 19.5% e buxhetit t\u00eb planifikuar. Shprehur n\u00eb koh\u00eb, ky set n\u00ebnkupton q\u00eb viti 2020 nuk i ka 12 muaj por rreth 14 muaj e 10 dit\u00eb. Gjithashtu, me r\u00ebnien e aktiviteteve ekonomike, bie edhe kapaciteti i qeveris\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjeneruar t\u00eb hyra nga tatimi. K\u00ebshtu, ky set mund t\u00eb duket tejet i shtrenjt\u00eb. Por, jo i pamundur.<\/p>\n

Ekzistojn\u00eb s\u00eb paku 10 burime p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cilave mund t\u00eb gjenerohen mbi \u20ac782.5 milion\u00eb. 4 prej tyre jan\u00eb t\u00eb brendshme, e 6 jan\u00eb t\u00eb jashtme. K\u00ebto jan\u00eb kombinim i mobilizimit t\u00eb burimeve t\u00eb brendshme dhe ndihmave e borxheve nga jasht\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se viteve t\u00eb fundit Kosova e ka rritur borxhin e jasht\u00ebm, i cili n\u00eb vitin 2019 arriti n\u00eb mbi\u00a0\u20ac1.2 miliard<\/a>. Por, n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb krize dhe emergjence, borxhi i jasht\u00ebm nuk duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb prioritet. Dhe, p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr q\u00eb, hap\u00ebsira ligjore p\u00ebr t\u00eb ekzison, meq\u00eb mund t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb deri n\u00eb 40% t\u00eb BPV-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Konkretisht, potenciali i Kosov\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjeneruar mjete p\u00ebr k\u00ebto pako mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet realizohet p\u00ebrmes:<\/p>\n

1. Rialokimit\u00a0<\/strong>t\u00eb disa projekteve t\u00eb planifikuara n\u00eb buxhetin e 2020, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb krijonte hap\u00ebsir\u00eb fiskale p\u00ebr riorientimin e mjeteve. N\u00ebse vet\u00ebm 0.5% e\u00a0buxhetit<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb 2020-\u00ebs do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb rialokohej, nga projektet q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb urgjente drejt k\u00ebtyre pakove, at\u00ebher\u00eb do t\u00eb krijoheshin rreth \u20ac11.8 milion\u00eb.
\n2.\u00a0Fondit t\u00eb privatizimit<\/strong>, i cili n\u00eb fund t\u00eb janarit 2020 ishte mbi\u00a0\u20ac272 milion\u00eb<\/a>.
\n3.\u00a0Fondit t\u00eb kursimeve pensionale<\/strong>\u00a0q\u00eb n\u00eb tremujorin e fundit t\u00eb 2019-\u00ebs kishte\u00a0\u20ac3.3 milion\u00eb<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb painvestuara.
\n4.\u00a0Emetimit t\u00eb letrat me vler\u00eb<\/strong>\u00a0p\u00ebrmes Bank\u00ebs Qendrore. N\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb t\u00eb 2019 jan\u00eb gjeneruar rreth\u00a0\u20ac105 milion\u00eb<\/a>. N\u00ebse nj\u00eb vler\u00eb e till\u00eb do t\u00eb emetohej s\u00ebrish, kjo do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte \u20ac105 milion\u00eb n\u00eb dispozicion p\u00ebr k\u00ebto pako.
\n5.\u00a0Marrjes s\u00eb kredis\u00eb<\/strong>\u00a0n\u00eb FMN, e cila, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 ri-aranzhimit t\u00eb borxhit aktual, ka\u00a04 programe<\/a>\u00a0p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cilave do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb gjeneroheshin mjete n\u00eb koh\u00ebn e kriz\u00ebs, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb:\u00a0Rapid Credit Facility<\/a>,\u00a0Rapid Financing Instrument<\/a>,\u00a0Stand-By-Arrangements<\/a>, dhe\u00a0Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust<\/a>. Nga t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto programe, aktualisht vlera potenciale q\u00eb do t\u2019mund t\u00eb gjenerohej \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi \u20ac271 milion\u00eb.
\n6.<\/strong>\u00a0Marrjes s\u00eb kredis\u00eb dhe ndihmave nga Banka Bot\u00ebrore<\/strong>, e cila aktualisht ka ndar\u00eb nj\u00eb fond prej\u00a0$14 miliard<\/a>\u00a0si p\u00ebrgjigje ndaj kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb COVID-19. Ajo, \u00ebsht\u00eb duke planifikuar ta krijoj\u00eb nj\u00eb fond prej $160 miliard p\u00ebr pasojat socio-ekonomike t\u00eb virusit. Gjithashtu, p\u00ebr koh\u00eb krizash, ajo ka programin\u00a0Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown (CAT DDO)<\/a>\u00a0p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cil\u00ebs mund t\u00eb merren deri n\u00eb $250 milion\u00eb ose 0.5% t\u00eb BPV-s\u00eb (cilado q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl). N\u00eb rast t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs, do t\u00eb aplikohej 0.5% e BPV-s\u00eb, e cila do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte nj\u00eb shum\u00eb prej mbi \u20ac35.5 milion\u00eb. Dhe, meq\u00eb nuk ka kuot\u00eb p\u00ebr fondin $14 miliard\u00ebsh p\u00ebr menaxhim t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs, dhe $160 milard\u00ebsh p\u00ebr pasojat socio-ekonomike, mund t\u00eb supozojm\u00eb se nga to Kosova do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb merrte vet\u00ebm sa gjysm\u00ebn e shum\u00ebs nga CAT DDO, q\u00eb i bie rreth \u20ac17.8 milion\u00eb. Pra, gjithsej, potenciali p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb mjete nga Banka Bot\u00ebrore \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi \u20ac53.3 milion\u00eb.
\n7.<\/strong>\u00a0Marrja e donacioneve nga Komisioni Evropian (KE),<\/strong>\u00a0i cili ve\u00e7 ka ndar\u00eb\u00a0\u20ac50 milion\u00eb<\/a>\u00a0specifikisht p\u00ebr pasojat ekonomike.
\n8.Marrje e kredis\u00eb dhe donacioneve nga Banka Evropiane p\u00ebr Rind\u00ebrtim dhe Zhvillim,<\/strong>\u00a0e cila aktualisht ka ndar\u00eb\u00a0\u20ac1 miliard<\/a>\u00a0si pako emergjente p\u00ebr t\u2019iu p\u00ebrgjigjur kriz\u00ebs. Ajo nuk ka caktuar kuota p\u00ebr vendet, por n\u00ebse vet\u00ebm 1\/5 e asaj q\u00eb KE ka ndar\u00eb p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn, apo 1% e k\u00ebtij fondi dedikohet p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn, at\u00ebher\u00eb ajo do t\u00eb gjeneronte \u20ac10 milion\u00eb.
\n9.Marrja e kredis\u00eb dhe donacioneve nga Banka Evropiane p\u00ebr Investime<\/strong>\u00a0e cila aktualisht ka ndar\u00eb\u00a0\u20ac40 miliard<\/a>\u00a0p\u00ebr rigjall\u00ebrimin e ekonomis\u00eb, me theks tek nd\u00ebrmarrjet e vogla dhe t\u00eb mesme. Ndon\u00ebse nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e specifikuar kuota dhe mund\u00ebsit\u00eb p\u00ebr vendet q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb ende an\u00ebtare t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb, n\u00ebse supozojm\u00eb se vet\u00ebm 1\/10 e donacionit t\u00eb KE apo 0.01% e k\u00ebtij fondi do t\u00eb shkonte p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb shtonte \u20ac5 milion\u00eb.
\n10. Marrja e ndihmave nga Kombet e Bashkuara,<\/strong>\u00a0t\u00eb cilat kan\u00eb ndar\u00eb\u00a0$2 miliard<\/a>\u00a0p\u00ebr t\u2019iu ndihmuar vendeve m\u00eb t\u00eb varfra. Meq\u00eb nuk ka ndonj\u00eb kuot\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar, n\u00ebse supozojm\u00eb q\u00eb vet\u00ebm 0.06% e k\u00ebtij fondi do t\u00eb ndahej p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb shtonte edhe \u20ac1 milion.<\/p>\n

Gjithsej k\u00ebto burime p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb mbi \u20ac782.5 milion\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa kosotja e 5 pakove t\u00eb shtjelluara m\u00eb lart (plus 1% asaj shume e shtuar p\u00ebr shpenzime administrative) \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak se 58.8% e tyre. Pra, ndon\u00ebse gjenerimi i mjeteve p\u00ebr t\u2019i financuar ato \u00ebsht\u00eb sfid\u00eb, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb sfid\u00eb e pamundur.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrfundim<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ndon\u00ebse jemi para shum\u00eb t\u00eb panjohurave dhe pasigurive n\u00eb lidhje me koh\u00ebzgjatjen e pandemis\u00eb si pasoj\u00eb e COVID-19 dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb llogaritet me sakt\u00ebsi efekti q\u00eb do ta ket\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomi, shum\u00eb vende t\u00eb bot\u00eb ve\u00e7se jan\u00eb duke u p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb ekonomike. Se a do t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet recesioni n\u00eb depresion, kjo do t\u00eb kuptohet shum\u00eb shpejt. Por, p\u00ebr t\u2019i paraprir\u00eb nj\u00eb situate t\u00eb till\u00eb, k\u00ebtu u paraqiten 5 pako n\u00eb vler\u00eb prej rreth \u20ac460 milion\u00eb, nga t\u00eb cilat do t\u00eb ndihmoheshin drejtp\u00ebrdrejt mbi 633 mij\u00eb qytetar\u00eb e rreth 48 mij\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrje. P\u00ebrmes tyre, targetohen efektet karakteristike t\u00eb depresionit si varf\u00ebria, papun\u00ebsia, shuarja e nd\u00ebrmarrjeve dhe demotivimi i sh\u00ebrbyesve n\u00eb vij\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb frontit. P\u00ebr financimin e tyre, u paraqit\u00ebn 10 burime n\u00eb vler\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjitshme prej mbi \u20ac782.5 milion\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat potencialisht mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren nga Kosova. Mbase kriza do t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e leht\u00eb, por \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb mire t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitemi e ajo t\u00eb mos vij\u00eb sesa kur t\u00eb vij\u00eb, t\u00eb na gjej\u00eb t\u00eb pap\u00ebrgatitur.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u20ac460 milion\u00eb p\u00ebr mbi 633 mij\u00eb qytetar\u00eb e rreth 48 mij\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrje Ndon\u00ebse jemi vet\u00ebm n\u00eb fund t\u00eb muajit t\u00eb tret\u00eb t\u00eb 2020-\u00ebs, tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb q\u00eb bota \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb recesion (i.e. r\u00ebnie e Bruto Produktit Vendor (BPV) n\u00eb s\u00eb paku dy tremujor\u00ebsh t\u00eb nj\u00ebpasnj\u00ebsh\u00ebm). \u00c7\u00ebshtja n\u00eb pyetje tash \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse nga recesioni do […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":10091,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[691,664],"ppma_author":[97],"class_list":["post-5296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-economy","tag-kosovo"],"authors":[{"term_id":97,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"edison-jakurti","display_name":"Edison Jakurti","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Edison-Jakurti.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Edison-Jakurti.jpeg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","description":"Edison Jakurti \u00ebsht\u00eb doktorant i shkencave ekonomike n\u00eb Freie Universit\u00e4t Berlin. M\u00eb her\u00ebt ai i ka p\u00ebrfunduar studimet e nivelit master p\u00ebr politikat e zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, me fokus n\u00eb ekonomiksin aplikativ, n\u00eb Duke University, dhe studimet themelore n\u00eb drejtimin ekonomiks dhe statistik\u00eb n\u00eb R.I.T. Ka punuar si asistent hulumtues dhe asistent ligj\u00ebrues n\u00eb Duke University, si dhe k\u00ebshilltar n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn Bot\u00ebrore."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5296"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5296\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10092,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5296\/revisions\/10092"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10091"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5296"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}