{"id":6096,"date":"2020-03-12T16:17:23","date_gmt":"2020-03-12T14:17:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=6096"},"modified":"2024-10-07T16:18:29","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T14:18:29","slug":"roli-rus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/opinion\/roli-rus\/","title":{"rendered":"Roli rus"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

M\u00eb relevante se analizat rreth rolit historik t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkan jan\u00eb vler\u00ebsimet p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e saj. Kur flitet p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen, jan\u00eb dy t\u00eb v\u00ebrteta me t\u00eb cilat ballafaqohet shteti rus. E para \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrteta e nj\u00eb superfuqie nukleare me apetit t\u00eb madh dhe kapacitete shkat\u00ebrruese q\u00eb ua imponon tjer\u00ebve prezenc\u00ebn dhe respektin n\u00eb aferat ky\u00e7e nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. E dyta \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb Rusi relativisht e mbyllur ndaj emigracionit, me probleme demografike e ekonomike dhe munges\u00eb t\u00eb inovacionit karshi konkurrent\u00ebve.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb dyja n\u00eb kombinim krijojn\u00eb nj\u00eb politik\u00eb e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb stres konstant ku ndjehet se problemet e brendshme jan\u00eb rrjedh\u00eb e axhendave t\u00eb jashtme, dhe si rezultat formulimin e politikave t\u00eb jashtme q\u00eb nxisin ndeshje edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe me fuqit\u00eb tjera. Thuajse me dizajn kjo nd\u00ebrlidhje mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb kanal p\u00ebr t\u00eb arsyetuar problemet dhe d\u00ebshtimet para popullit, dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasur p\u00ebrkrahje n\u00eb aventurat q\u00eb ia ushqejn\u00eb ambiciet e nj\u00eb fuqie globale.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn, kjo gjendje strukturale e Rusis\u00eb sinjalizon se ajo do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb aktive n\u00eb bot\u00eb e rajon, dhe Prishtina zyrtare duhet t\u00eb formuloj\u00eb nj\u00eb qasje drejt k\u00ebtij realiteti.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ka prodhojn\u00eb dy t\u00eb v\u00ebrtetat bashk\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kur flitet p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb duhet pasur parasysh pozit\u00ebn e saj gjeografike (ekspozimin) me kufi t\u00eb ndar\u00eb me 14 shtete, lidhje direkte n\u00eb Euro-Azi dhe Arktik. N\u00eb Azi ndoshta dilem\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e ka Kin\u00ebn. Deri n\u00eb nj\u00eb mas\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb dakorduar si miq q\u00eb s\u00eb bashku mund t\u2019i kund\u00ebrvihen Amerik\u00ebs. Por, n\u00eb rast se Kina b\u00ebhet fuqia num\u00ebr nj\u00eb (q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen,) at\u00ebher\u00eb Rusis\u00eb gjithashtu i intereson t\u00eb balancoj\u00eb gjigantin fqinj.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb vitet q\u00eb vijn\u00eb, n\u00eb nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb duket se m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb bashkpunoj\u00eb me Kin\u00ebn dhe t\u00eb shtyj\u00eb Per\u00ebndimin duke siguruar q\u00eb Ukraina nuk bie n\u00ebn orbitin e SHBA-ve dhe BE-s\u00eb, q\u00eb Bellorusia nuk i largohet, dhe se NATO e prezenca e saj n\u00eb shtetet karshi dob\u00ebsohen.<\/p>\n

Si zgjatje e k\u00ebtij fronti me Per\u00ebndimin, \u00e7ka kemi par\u00eb dhe po shohim edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se Rusia nuk luan m\u00eb vet\u00ebm n\u00eb k\u00ebto sfera. Aq sa e lejojn\u00eb rrethanat duke mos eskaluar konfliktin krejt\u00ebsisht, ajo gjithashtu \u00ebsht\u00eb aktive n\u00eb zonat ku ka prezenc\u00eb historike p\u00ebrmes Bashkimit Sovjetik (sikur Siria, Venezuela etj.) por edhe brenda vet\u00eb vendeve Per\u00ebndimore (sikur intervenimi n\u00eb zgjedhjet amerikane.)<\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb front gjithsesi hyn edhe Ballkani. E kemi par\u00eb p\u00ebrmes p\u00ebrkrahjes ndaj Serbis\u00eb, pozicionimit kund\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebs, dhe destabilizimit t\u00eb Maqedonis\u00eb e Malit t\u00eb Zi.<\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb e b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb afer\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn specifikisht \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti se n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb front shohim nj\u00eb qasje tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb luft\u00ebs. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb fjala vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr luft\u00eb hibride si taktik\u00eb e tanishme. Rreziku m\u00eb shum\u00eb vjen nga strategjia e nj\u00eb politike aventuriste ku Moska a) b\u00ebn l\u00ebvizje ushtarake dhe politike p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cil\u00ebs merr at\u00eb q\u00eb do, b) kalkulon se at\u00eb q\u00eb merr nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb sulm direkt p\u00ebr vendet sikur SHBA-t\u00eb (nuk ia cenon interesat vitale) dhe c) me arm\u00eb nukleare dhe politika agresive t\u00eb gjitha s\u00eb bashku e parandalojn\u00eb eskalimin e situat\u00ebs m\u00eb tutje ngase n\u00eb rrethana t\u00eb tilla Amerika m\u00eb p\u00ebrpara e menaxhon situat\u00ebn se t\u00eb nxis\u00eb luft\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Si rrezikohet Kosova?<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00ebtu po kthehem tek fillimi i shkrimit. N\u00ebse shikojm\u00eb prapa n\u00eb histori p\u00ebr informim ndaj t\u00eb ardhmes at\u00ebher\u00eb rrezikojm\u00eb ta shohim Rusin\u00eb vet\u00ebm si aleat serb. Nd\u00ebrsa, si\u00e7 e p\u00ebrshkrova m\u00eb lart, Rusia luan rol global dhe sheh Kosov\u00ebn m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga perspektiva e betej\u00ebs me Per\u00ebndimin se nga aleanca serbo-ruse. Normal kjo lidhje bilaterale p\u00ebrdoret p\u00ebr benefite t\u00eb dyanshme si \u00e7do marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie mes shtetesh, por se Kosova si \u00e7\u00ebshtje p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb e tejkalon Serbin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Rusia si minimum mund t\u2019i v\u00ebr\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit kushtin e njohjes s\u00eb Krimes\u00eb apo ndonj\u00eb kusht tjet\u00ebr n\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn Lindore. Ajo nuk ka interes ta njoh\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u2019i ndihmuar tjer\u00ebve (n\u00ebse nuk ka di\u00e7ka p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb si shk\u00ebmbim.)<\/p>\n

Prandaj, Serbia mund t\u00eb konsideroj se ky \u00ebsht\u00eb moment i art\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje nga e cila fiton edhe pak territor ose influenc\u00eb mbi Kosov\u00ebn si shk\u00ebmbim p\u00ebr njohje – sepse e di se Moska e bllokon Kosov\u00ebn n\u00eb sken\u00ebn nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare dhe Beogradi mund t\u2019i rikthehet politik\u00ebs agresive prap\u00eb pas disa viteve.<\/p>\n

Si kombinim interesash mes Rusis\u00eb e Serbis\u00eb, kjo edhe n\u00ebse nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb menduar bashk\u00eb, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj mir\u00ebkuptimi i nd\u00ebrsjell\u00eb q\u00eb siguron vazhdim\u00ebsin\u00eb e Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkan, dhe problematizimin e Kosov\u00ebs n\u00eb favor t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen (pas marr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb mundshme.)<\/p>\n

Roli rus n\u00eb bot\u00eb dhe Ballkan ilustron pse \u00e7far\u00ebdo marr\u00ebveshjeje Kosov\u00eb-Serbi nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruhet si \u201cfinale.\u201d N\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nuk ka asgj\u00eb finale sepse secila fuqi \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb l\u00ebvizje konstante. \u00cbsht\u00eb sikur yjet n\u00eb qiell – nga larg duket se jan\u00eb n\u00eb harmoni dhe po rrijn\u00eb t\u00eb ngrir\u00eb. N\u00eb realitet, gjendja \u00ebsht\u00eb kaotike, jan\u00eb n\u00eb l\u00ebvizje konstante, disa n\u00eb lindje, disa n\u00eb vdekje, e disa duke u ndeshur apo p\u00ebrpir\u00eb nga vrimat e zeza.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebn nj\u00eb realitet t\u00eb till\u00eb Kosova duhet t\u00eb punoj\u00eb tani q\u00eb pas nj\u00eb afati disavje\u00e7ar\u00eb t\u00eb ket\u00eb a) kapacitete ushtarake t\u00eb cilat ia v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsojn\u00eb seriozisht Serbis\u00eb \u00e7far\u00ebdo kalkulimi t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjes, dhe b) aleanca ushtarake t\u00eb cilat pamund\u00ebsojn\u00eb ndonj\u00eb aventur\u00eb serbe dhe\/apo ruse q\u00eb si\u00e7 e shohim \u00ebsht\u00eb brenda skenar\u00ebve t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u00eb relevante se analizat rreth rolit historik t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkan jan\u00eb vler\u00ebsimet p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e saj. Kur flitet p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen, jan\u00eb dy t\u00eb v\u00ebrteta me t\u00eb cilat ballafaqohet shteti rus. E para \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrteta e nj\u00eb superfuqie nukleare me apetit t\u00eb madh dhe kapacitete shkat\u00ebrruese q\u00eb ua imponon tjer\u00ebve prezenc\u00ebn dhe […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":412,"featured_media":7972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[988,1240,637,1239],"ppma_author":[769],"class_list":["post-6096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-ballkani-perendimor","tag-kina","tag-nato","tag-rusia"],"authors":[{"term_id":769,"user_id":412,"is_guest":0,"slug":"ard-morina","display_name":"Ard Morina","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1674848345608.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1674848345608.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Morina","first_name":"Ard","description":"Ard Morina \u00ebsht\u00eb magjist\u00ebr n\u00eb Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnje Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nga New School University, New York. Analist i tregtis\u00eb, siguris\u00eb dhe zhvillimit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb decade."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/412"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6096"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6096\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8037,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6096\/revisions\/8037"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6096"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=6096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}