{"id":7683,"date":"2020-07-13T14:26:34","date_gmt":"2020-07-13T12:26:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=7683"},"modified":"2024-12-18T15:12:49","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T13:12:49","slug":"title-covid-19-dhe-kosova-kriza-e-trefishte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/title-covid-19-dhe-kosova-kriza-e-trefishte\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 dhe Kosova: kriza e trefisht\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"

P\u00ebrderisa shumica e vendeve n\u00eb bot\u00eb ballafaqohej me kriz\u00ebn e dyfisht\u00eb, sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe ekonomike, Kosova po kalonte n\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb trefisht\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb zhvillimeve politike.<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00ebse duhet p\u00ebrshkruar kriz\u00ebn ekonomike t\u00eb ndezur nga COVID-19 me nj\u00eb mbiem\u00ebr, at\u00ebher\u00eb ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb: e paprecedent. Kjo sepse p\u00ebrmasa e saj \u00ebsht\u00eb globale, n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, dhe nga e nj\u00ebjta arsye. Megjithat\u00eb duhet kuptuar se ajo po ndodh n\u00eb nj\u00eb tok\u00eb t\u00eb plleshme krizash: n\u00eb kapitaliz\u00ebm krizat jan\u00eb t\u00eb qen\u00ebsishme dhe pothuajse periodike. Pra, COVID-19 \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb shk\u00ebndij\u00eb, se sa arsye e plot\u00eb e problemeve ekonomike me t\u00eb cilat ballafaqohemi.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebshtu, kriza aktuale ekonomike, ndon\u00ebse e paprecedent, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e shk\u00ebputuar nga e kaluara. Ose th\u00ebn\u00eb ndryshe: n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn nuk e gjejm\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb natyr\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00eb, por kriza kemi par\u00eb n\u00eb vazhdim\u00ebsi. E ndon\u00ebse kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e nj\u00eb lloji t\u00eb pazakont\u00eb, tendencat p\u00ebr krahasime nuk mungojn\u00eb. Ta z\u00ebm\u00eb,\u00a0disa<\/a>\u00a0e kan\u00eb krahasuar k\u00ebt\u00eb kriz\u00eb si nj\u00eb q\u00eb ngjason me ato t\u00eb luft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Duke e ditur se Kosova nuk ka patur r\u00ebnie vjetore ekonomike q\u00eb nga koha e luft\u00ebs, dhe meq\u00eb tani\u00a0presim r\u00ebnie<\/a>, lufta na b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb pik\u00eb reference n\u00eb histori. Dhe, meq\u00eb nuk ka aq shum\u00eb studime t\u00eb historis\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb rajonit, mbase ia vlen t\u2019i rikujtojm\u00eb sfidat e nj\u00eb t\u00eb kaluare jo shum\u00eb t\u00eb larg\u00ebt.<\/p>\n

Depresionet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha ekonomike n\u00eb Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor<\/strong><\/h5>\n

P\u00ebrderisa vendet e zhvilluar si pik\u00eb reference e kan\u00eb\u00a0Depresionin e Madh<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb 1929-39 apo\u00a0Recesionin e Madh<\/a>\u00a0t\u00eb 2007-9, Kosova dhe pes\u00eb vendet tjera t\u00eb Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor (Shqip\u00ebria, Bosnja & Herzegovina, Mali i Zi, Maqedonia Veriore, dhe Serbia), q\u00eb aktualisht nuk jan\u00eb pjes\u00eb e Bashkimit Evropian, r\u00ebniet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha vjetore ekonomike, bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat q\u00eb jan\u00eb aktualisht n\u00eb dispozicion, i kan\u00eb patur gjat\u00eb luftrave dhe tranzicioneve ekonomike e politike n\u00eb t\u00eb 90-at.<\/p>\n

Sa p\u00ebr rikujtim, nj\u00eb definicion teknik i depresionit n\u00eb ekonomi \u00ebsht\u00eb situata kur r\u00ebnia vjetore e Bruto Produktit Vendor (BPV) real \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 10%. Dhe, kryesisht fal\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave historike nga databaza ambicioze e\u00a0The Maddison Project<\/a>\u00a0mund t\u00eb llogariten depresionet me t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb vendet e ndryshme t\u00eb bot\u00ebs p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb historis\u00eb. Si\u00e7 mund ta shohim nga Figura 1 m\u00eb posht\u00eb, e t\u00ebr\u00eb gjasht\u00ebshja e Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor (WB-6) ka patur r\u00ebnie t\u00eb tilla nga e kaluara.<\/p>\n

\"KOVIDFigura 1.<\/strong>\u00a0R\u00ebniet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha vjetore n\u00eb BPV-t\u00eb e WB-6<\/p>\n

Nga k\u00ebto r\u00ebnie historike, m\u00eb e \u201cbuta\u201d ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb Maqedonin\u00eb Veriore n\u00eb 1993, kur rritja reale vjetore ishte rreth -10.2%. Nd\u00ebrsa, r\u00ebnia m\u00eb e thell\u00eb u sh\u00ebnua gjat\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, n\u00eb vitin 1999, kur BPV kishte sh\u00ebnuar nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie reale vjetore prej rreth 37.6%.<\/p>\n

E rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja (kthimi n\u00eb gjendjen e para depresionit) kishte qen\u00eb poashtu e ndryshme edhe n\u00eb koh\u00ebzgjatje edhe n\u00eb normat vjetore t\u00eb rritjes. P\u00ebr shembull, si\u00e7 shihet n\u00eb Figur\u00ebn 2 m\u00eb posht\u00eb, Republika e Kosov\u00ebs dhe Bosnja & Herzegovina kishin arritur t\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmben m\u00eb s\u00eb shpejti. Kjo edhe p\u00ebr faktin se baza ekonomike ishte m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl dhe rritja mesatare ekonomike p\u00ebr ato vite ishte m\u00eb e larta.<\/p>\n

\"KOVIDFigura 2.<\/strong>\u00a0Vitet dhe norma mestare e rritjes ekonomike p\u00ebr t\u2019u rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbur<\/p>\n

Por, p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr shum\u00eb pasigurive, as pesimisti m\u00eb i madh sot nuk pret q\u00eb kriza aktuale t\u00eb karakterizohet nga k\u00ebso r\u00ebnie drastike t\u00eb BPV-s\u00eb, si\u00e7 kan\u00eb ndodhur n\u00eb t\u00eb 90-at. Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar nj\u00ebmend po e cil\u00ebsojn kriz\u00ebn aktuale si\u00a0t\u00eb pakrahasueshme me t\u00eb tjerat<\/a>. Banka Bot\u00ebrore poashtu po e sheh si\u00a0recesinonin m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb global n\u00eb dekada<\/a>. Por as\u00a0parashikimet e tyre<\/a>\u00a0m\u00eb pesimiste, nuk jan\u00eb af\u00ebr r\u00ebnieve t\u00eb paraqitura n\u00eb Figur\u00ebn 1.<\/p>\n

Ngjash\u00ebm, as optimisti m\u00eb i madh nuk do t\u2019mund t\u00eb priste norma t\u00eb ngjashme t\u00eb rritjes vjetore, meq\u00eb shum\u00eb\u00e7ka ka ndryshuar nga ajo koh\u00eb \u2013 nga rritja e baz\u00ebs s\u00eb ekonomive vendore deri tek dinamikat e integrimit t\u00eb tyre n\u00eb tregjet globale.<\/p>\n

\"KOVIDBurimi:\u00a0europeanwesternbalkans.com<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrsa koha q\u00eb do t\u00eb duhet deri n\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbje nga kriza aktuale do t\u00eb varet shum\u00eb nga politikat q\u00eb qeverit\u00eb i dizajnojn\u00eb dhe implementojn\u00eb. Kjo mund t\u00eb komplikohet m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb rastet kur ka kriza politike, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb rasti i Kosov\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Kriza e trefisht\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb dhe mund\u00ebsia (e humbur) e ndryshimit ekonomik<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa shumica e vendeve n\u00eb bot\u00eb ballafaqohej me kriz\u00ebn e dyfisht\u00eb, sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe ekonomike, Kosova po kalonte n\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb trefisht\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb zhvillimeve politike. Kjo kulmoi kur ajo u b\u00eb\u00a0rasti i par\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb<\/a>\u00a0q\u00eb gjat\u00eb pandemis\u00eb, p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb \u201cpu\u00e7i paq\u00ebsor\u201d, u rr\u00ebzua Qeveria Kurti, vet\u00ebm pas 50 dit\u00ebve t\u00eb formimit t\u00eb saj, p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhur m\u00eb pas Qeveria Hoti. Nj\u00eb arsye e fort\u00eb, nd\u00ebr\u00a0t\u00eb tjera<\/a>, e k\u00ebtij pu\u00e7it ishte se Qeveria Kurti\u00a0shihej si penges\u00eb n\u00eb planin p\u00ebr ndarjen e Kosov\u00ebs<\/a>, gj\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ishte pjes\u00eb ky\u00e7e e nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje q\u00eb do t\u00eb dilte nga dialogu me Serbin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa n\u00eb bot\u00eb masat e marra p\u00ebr ta menaxhuar kriz\u00ebn sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore kan\u00eb precipituar kriz\u00ebn ekonomike, n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb kriza politike thelloi m\u00eb tej kriz\u00ebn sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe ekonomike.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrkund\u00ebr faktit se trash\u00ebgoi nj\u00eb sistem sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor me shum\u00eb probleme, Qeveris\u00eb Kurti arriti q\u00eb ta b\u00ebj\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn\u00a0nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb suksesshme<\/a>\u00a0n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjet p\u00ebr ta sheshuar lakoren e rasteve t\u00eb infektuara. Kujtojm\u00eb se rreth 1 jav\u00eb para se t\u00eb votohej Qeveria Hoti, sakt\u00ebsisht me 24 maj, Kosova kishte\u00a00 raste t\u00eb reja<\/a>\u00a0dhe, deri n\u00eb at\u00eb dat\u00eb, kishte 29 raste t\u00eb vdekjes.<\/p>\n

Qeveria Hoti u votua me 3 qershor, me minimumin e votave q\u00eb duhej, vet\u00ebm pasi\u00a0Presidenti e kishte vizituar deputetin \u201cvendimtar\u201d p\u00ebr formimin e Qeveris\u00eb<\/a>\u00a0n\u00eb sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e tij pas mesnat\u00ebs. Dhe, si\u00e7 shihet n\u00eb Figur\u00ebn 3, \u00ebsht\u00eb kjo koha kur filloi ngritja enorme e rasteve t\u00eb t\u00eb infektuarve.<\/p>\n

\"KOVIDFigura 3.<\/strong>\u00a0Rastet me identifikuara me virusin SARS-CoV-2<\/p>\n

Natyrisht se kjo koh\u00eb p\u00ebrkon edhe me hapjen graduale t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, q\u00eb ishte planifikuar m\u00eb her\u00ebt nga Qeveria Kurti. Por, tani Qeveria Hoti kishte marrur p\u00ebrsip\u00ebr qeverisjen e vendit dhe menaxhimin e situat\u00ebs s\u00eb pandemis\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn e cil\u00ebsonte si nj\u00eb prej\u00a0dy prioriteve kryesore<\/a>\u00a0bashk\u00eb m\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjen ekonomike.<\/p>\n

Rezultatet e k\u00ebtij prioritizimi m\u00eb s\u00eb miri jan\u00eb t\u00eb paraqitura n\u00eb Figur\u00ebn 3. Ajo q\u00eb kemi par\u00eb deri tani nga Qeveria Hoti, nuk ka qen\u00eb menaxhim por vrojtim i pandemis\u00eb dhe k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim i qytetar\u00ebve p\u00ebrmes konferencave boshe p\u00ebr media.<\/p>\n

Vet\u00ebm pas pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb muaji kur Kosova kishte sh\u00ebnuar 0 raste t\u00eb reja, p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, me 29 qershor, kishim mbi 100 raste t\u00eb reja (sakt\u00ebsisht,\u00a0122 raste<\/a>) dhe gjithsej 49 persona q\u00eb kishin humbur jet\u00ebn. Dhe, shifra t\u00eb tilla kemi par\u00eb edhe n\u00eb dit\u00ebt n\u00eb vijim. Krejt k\u00ebto pas\u00a0rekomandimit<\/a>\u00a0p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos i testuar rastet asimptomatike t\u00eb kontaktit \u2013 gj\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton se numri i t\u00eb infektuarve mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb edhe m\u00eb i lart\u00eb dhe se shum\u00eb raste me virus mund t\u00eb mbesin t\u00eb paidentifikuara. Momentalisht, mungon transaprenca, por duket se kapacitetet sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore n\u00eb vend jan\u00eb pran\u00eb limiteve t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrve\u00e7 dallimi t\u00eb madh t\u00eb menaxhimit t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore, kemi nj\u00eb dallim thelb\u00ebsor n\u00eb qasje ndaj kriz\u00ebs ekonomike. Qeveria Kurti ishte n\u00eb faz\u00ebn e p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb implementimit t\u00eb\u00a0Pakos Fiskale Emergjente<\/a>, kur publikoi edhe\u00a0Pakon e Rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjes Ekonomike<\/a>. Ky ishte nj\u00eb plan ambicioz n\u00eb shum\u00eb prej rreth 1.26 miliard euro. Konkretisht, kjo pako parashihte:<\/p>\n