{"id":7902,"date":"2024-09-30T14:26:21","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T12:26:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=7902"},"modified":"2024-09-30T14:27:24","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T12:27:24","slug":"renia-e-lindshmerise-ne-kosove-rrezik-serioz-qe-duhet-adresuar-me-prioritet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/renia-e-lindshmerise-ne-kosove-rrezik-serioz-qe-duhet-adresuar-me-prioritet\/","title":{"rendered":"R\u00ebnia e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, rrezik serioz q\u00eb duhet adresuar me prioritet"},"content":{"rendered":"

Shifrat e Agjencis\u00eb Statistikore t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs (ASK) tregojn\u00eb p\u00ebr r\u00ebnie t\u00eb lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb vend. Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave paraprake t\u00eb <\/span>Regjistrimit t\u00eb Popullsis\u00eb, Ekonomive Familjare dhe Banesave (ReKos 2024)<\/span><\/a>, numri i popullsis\u00eb rezidente n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb 1,586,659 banor\u00eb.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kjo p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie krahasuar me t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e vitit 2011, ku ishin regjistruar 1,739,825 banor\u00eb. Kjo r\u00ebnie e popullsis\u00eb vjen p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb dy faktor\u00ebve kryesor\u00eb: emigrimi i lart\u00eb dhe r\u00ebnia e natalitetit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb nga gjetjet kryesore t\u00eb regjistrimit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb vitit 2024 \u00ebsht\u00eb se Kosova po kalon n\u00eb fazat e fundit t\u00eb tranzicionit demografik. Tranzicioni demografik p\u00ebrshkruan ndryshimin nga nivelet e larta t\u00eb lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb, drejt niveleve t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, q\u00eb zakonisht ndodhin me rritjen e kushteve socio-ekonomike.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kosova, megjith\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebr vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb reja n\u00eb Europ\u00eb p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket mosh\u00ebs mesatare, me nj\u00eb mosh\u00eb mesatare t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb prej 34.82 vjet n\u00eb vitin 2024, tanim\u00eb po shkon drejt plakjes s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, fenomen tashm\u00eb i pranish\u00ebm kudo n\u00eb Europ\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prema <\/span>Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore<\/span><\/a>, gjat\u00eb vitit 2022, lindshm\u00ebria n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb ishte 1.5 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua. P\u00ebr krahasim, para nj\u00eb dekade, shifra ishte 2.0 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua. Por, kur krahasojm\u00eb Kosov\u00ebn me shtetet e rajonit, v\u00ebrehet se Kosova nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb larg prej tyre. Lindshm\u00ebria n\u00eb Bosnj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb 1.3, n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri 1.4, kurse n\u00eb Serbi dhe Maqedonin\u00eb Veriore shifrat jan\u00eb 1.6.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, Kosova \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb af\u00ebr me shifra me shtetet e zhvilluara t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb, sesa vendet e tjera n\u00eb zhvillim. N\u00eb nivel global, lindshm\u00ebria te shtetet me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb mesme \u00ebsht\u00eb mesatarisht 2.2. Kjo shp\u00ebrfaq nj\u00eb problem serioz p\u00ebr Kosov\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n

R\u00ebnia e natalitetit ka pasoja t\u00eb shum\u00ebfishta, duke ndikuar n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha aspektet e shoq\u00ebris\u00eb, nga ekonomia deri te sh\u00ebrbimet sociale dhe struktura demografike.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb nga pasojat m\u00eb t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejta \u00ebsht\u00eb plakja e popullsis\u00eb. Me m\u00eb pak lindje dhe jet\u00ebgjat\u00ebsi m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, raporti i t\u00eb moshuarve ndaj popullsis\u00eb aktive rritet, duke krijuar sfida p\u00ebr sistemet e pensioneve dhe kujdesin sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb vende ku nataliteti \u00ebsht\u00eb i ul\u00ebt, ka m\u00eb pak t\u00eb rinj q\u00eb hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb tregun e pun\u00ebs, gj\u00eb q\u00eb kufizon rritjen ekonomike dhe inovacionin. Kjo pastaj mund t\u00eb rris\u00eb barr\u00ebn p\u00ebr popullsin\u00eb aktive.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Shtetet me natalitet t\u00eb ul\u00ebt shpesh p\u00ebrballen me v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi n\u00eb sigurimin e fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur ekonomin\u00eb n\u00eb rritje. P\u00ebr shembull, Gjermania dhe Japonia kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar r\u00ebnie t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb natalitetit t\u00eb ul\u00ebt dhe jan\u00eb detyruar t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb zgjidhje p\u00ebrmes politikave t\u00eb emigracionit ose automatizimit t\u00eb pun\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb pasoj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb ndryshimi n\u00eb struktur\u00ebn familjare dhe marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet sociale. Me m\u00eb pak f\u00ebmij\u00eb, familjet b\u00ebhen m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla dhe struktura e tyre ndryshon. N\u00eb disa vende, ky fenomen ka krijuar nj\u00eb situat\u00eb ku ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb moshuar q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb vet\u00ebm, duke rritur presionin mbi sistemet e kujdesit p\u00ebr t\u00eb moshuarit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politikat p\u00ebr p\u00ebrballimin e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb natalitetit<\/b><\/p>\n

Ulja e popullsis\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb ndalohet, por mund t\u00eb merren masa p\u00ebr t’u p\u00ebrballur me k\u00ebt\u00eb sfid\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb e domosdoshme t\u00eb adaptohen politika q\u00eb inkurajojn\u00eb lindshm\u00ebrin\u00eb, si\u00e7 jan\u00eb subvencionet p\u00ebr prind\u00ebrit e rinj, pushimi i paguar p\u00ebr prind\u00ebrit, si dhe p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimet n\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimet e kujdesit p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00ebt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Deri m\u00eb tash, asnj\u00eb qeveri n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb nuk ka nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb ndonj\u00eb politik\u00eb serioze p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur natalitetin. Momentalisht, nuk ka ndonj\u00eb strategji shtet\u00ebrore p\u00ebr t’u ballafaquar me r\u00ebnien e natalitetit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kjo ndodh kryesisht p\u00ebr shkak se r\u00ebnia e natalitetit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb si problem dhe ka dominuar miti se Kosova vazhdon t\u00eb ket\u00eb natalitet t\u00eb lart\u00eb. Mir\u00ebpo, me t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e fundit, tashm\u00eb kjo gj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb d\u00ebshmuar se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sidoqoft\u00eb, n\u00eb tri vitet e fundit jan\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb disa masa q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb ndikim. E para \u00ebsht\u00eb pagesa n\u00eb vler\u00ebn e pag\u00ebs minimale p\u00ebr n\u00ebnat q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie pune, q\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhet me pushimin e lehonis\u00eb s\u00eb n\u00ebnave q\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie pune. Pushimi i lehonis\u00eb ka ekzistuar edhe m\u00eb her\u00ebt, mir\u00ebpo nuk mund t\u00eb thuhet se ka pasur ndonj\u00eb efekt n\u00eb natalitet, sidomos kur dihet pjes\u00ebmarrja e vog\u00ebl e grave n\u00eb tregun e pun\u00ebs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mas\u00eb tjet\u00ebr e zbatuar nga Qeveria Kurti jan\u00eb shtesat p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00eb. N\u00eb korrik <\/span>2021<\/span><\/a>, Qeveria miratoi Pakon e Ringjalljes Ekonomike, q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin pagesa prej 20\u20ac n\u00eb muaj p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00ebt e mosh\u00ebs 0-24 muaj dhe 170\u20ac (paga minimale) n\u00eb muaj p\u00ebr n\u00ebnat e reja (lehonat) p\u00ebr gjasht\u00eb muaj. Kurse, nga janari i vitit <\/span>2022<\/span><\/a>, gradualisht u shtuan grupmosha t\u00eb tjera deri n\u00eb mosh\u00ebn 16-vje\u00e7are, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat vlera e shtes\u00ebs ishte 10 euro n\u00eb muaj.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tutje, n\u00eb korrik 2024, Qeveria prezantoi <\/span>skem\u00ebn e re<\/span><\/a>. Sipas k\u00ebsaj skeme, p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00ebn e par\u00eb dhe t\u00eb dyt\u00eb shtesat jan\u00eb nga 20 euro n\u00eb muaj, nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebr n\u00ebnat q\u00eb kan\u00eb 3 f\u00ebmij\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb, shtesat do t\u00eb jen\u00eb nga 30 euro n\u00eb muaj; p\u00ebr secilin prej f\u00ebmij\u00ebve, pra edhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb parin, edhe t\u00eb dytin, rritet shtesa n\u00eb 30 euro n\u00eb muaj.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sa kan\u00eb efekt politikat pro-nataliste?<\/b><\/p>\n

Studimet <\/span>akademike<\/span><\/a> nuk kan\u00eb konsensus n\u00eb lidhje me ndikimin e politikave pro-nataliste n\u00eb nivelin e fertilitetit. Ka evidenc\u00eb p\u00ebr efekt pozitiv n\u00eb planin afatgjat\u00eb, por nuk ka pajtim p\u00ebr madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e efektit dhe p\u00ebrqindjet variojn\u00eb nga 0.5% n\u00eb 4.1% lindshm\u00ebri m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, n\u00ebse vlera neto e tashme e shtesave p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e barabart\u00eb me 10% t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave t\u00eb nj\u00eb familjeje.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb tejet e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme se si dizajnohen masat pro-nataliste. P\u00ebr shembull, rasti i Polonis\u00eb dhe Hungaris\u00eb tregon se masat m\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme dhe m\u00eb universale kan\u00eb efekt m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, kurse masat afatshkurta (p.sh., bonuset) nuk kan\u00eb efekt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Po ashtu, duhet theksuar se edhe politikat q\u00eb nuk e targetojn\u00eb fertilitetin drejtp\u00ebrdrejt kan\u00eb efekte n\u00eb fertilitet. P\u00ebr shembull, politikat p\u00ebr pushim t\u00eb lehonis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb dy prind\u00ebrit kan\u00eb efekt pozitiv n\u00eb fertilitet, si\u00e7 tregon shembulli i <\/span>Norvegjis\u00eb<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb ende her\u00ebt t\u00eb vler\u00ebsohet ndikimi i masave t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarra nga Qeveria Kurti, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb koh\u00ebs s\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr prej kur kan\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb fuqi ato. Megjithat\u00eb, duke marr\u00eb p\u00ebr baz\u00eb vendet e tjera, k\u00ebto masa nuk do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr zgjidhjen e problemit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevoja p\u00ebr politika holistike \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb. P\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar natalitetin, Kosova duhet t\u00eb fokusohet, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 shtesave p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00ebt, n\u00eb leht\u00ebsime t\u00eb tjera p\u00ebr prind\u00ebrit e rinj. Gjithashtu, duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb fokus m\u00eb t\u00eb madh te p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi i sh\u00ebrbimeve publike, si\u00e7 jan\u00eb arsimi dhe sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsia, dhe zhvillim m\u00eb t\u00eb madh ekonomik, faktor\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebt do t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb n\u00eb krijimin e nj\u00eb mjedisi m\u00eb t\u00eb favorsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr lindjen dhe rritjen e f\u00ebmij\u00ebve.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shifrat e Agjencis\u00eb Statistikore t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs (ASK) tregojn\u00eb p\u00ebr r\u00ebnie t\u00eb lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb vend. Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave paraprake t\u00eb Regjistrimit t\u00eb Popullsis\u00eb, Ekonomive Familjare dhe Banesave (ReKos 2024), numri i popullsis\u00eb rezidente n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb 1,586,659 banor\u00eb.\u00a0 Kjo p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie krahasuar me t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e vitit 2011, ku ishin regjistruar 1,739,825 banor\u00eb. Kjo r\u00ebnie […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":7905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[972,624,1215,1216],"ppma_author":[29],"class_list":["post-7902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-kosove","tag-kryesore","tag-nataliteti","tag-renia-e-lindshmerise"],"authors":[{"term_id":29,"user_id":19,"is_guest":0,"slug":"seb-bytyci","display_name":"Seb Byty\u00e7i","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1668771566235.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1668771566235.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Byty\u00e7i","first_name":"Seb","description":"Dr. Seb Bytyci ka p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebse n\u00eb hulumtim shkencor dhe m\u00ebsimdh\u00ebnie p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se dy dekada, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb angazhime me University of London\/LSE, University of York, University of Winchester, William College, IPOL Institute, si dhe Police Federation of England and Wales. Ai ka qen\u00eb gjithashtu i p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb avokim praktik dhe ka bashk\u00ebpunuar me organizata nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare si OKB, UNDP dhe OSBE.\r\n\r\nSeb ka doktoratur\u00eb (PhD) nga University of York; nj\u00eb Master n\u00eb Administrat\u00eb Publike (MPA) n\u00eb Analiz\u00eb Politikash dhe \u00c7\u00ebshtje Krahasuese & Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nga Indiana University (Bloomington), si dhe nj\u00eb MES n\u00eb Integrim Evropian dhe Rajonaliz\u00ebm nga University of Graz\/EIPA\/EURAC.\r\n\r\nHulumtimi i tij i doktoratur\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb fokusuar n\u00eb institucionet n\u00eb vende n\u00eb tranzicion, nd\u00ebrsa fushat e tij t\u00eb interesit p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimin e institucioneve efektive dhe lidershipin, \u00e7\u00ebshtjet e BE-s\u00eb dhe marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, zgjidhjen e konflikteve, shtetin zhvillimor dhe proceset e transformimit shoq\u00ebror."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7902"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7903,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7902\/revisions\/7903"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7902"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=7902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}