{"id":8146,"date":"2016-11-07T15:31:03","date_gmt":"2016-11-07T13:31:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=8146"},"modified":"2024-10-09T15:34:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-09T13:34:51","slug":"a-ka-carje-ne-raportet-ne-mes-te-rusise-dhe-serbise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/a-ka-carje-ne-raportet-ne-mes-te-rusise-dhe-serbise\/","title":{"rendered":"A ka \u00e7arje n\u00eb raportet n\u00eb mes t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb dhe Serbis\u00eb?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ish-shefi i sh\u00ebrbimit sekret t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb (FSB), sot sekretar i K\u00ebshillit t\u00eb Siguris\u00eb, Nikolai Patrushev,\u00a0 <\/span>para dy jav\u00ebsh vizitoi Beogradin.\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00eb rrethana normale nj\u00eb vizit\u00eb e till\u00eb e zyrtarit m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb aparatit rus t\u00eb siguris\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend tradicionalisht aleat nuk do t\u00eb p\u00ebrbente lajm. Por momenti dhe konteksti i vizit\u00ebs mund t\u00eb shihen edhe si tregues i nj\u00eb l\u00ebkundjeje t\u00eb momentit n\u00eb raportet n\u00eb mes t\u00eb Putinit dhe qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb Aleksandar Vu\u00e7i\u00e7it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ky i fundit ka vite q\u00eb e ka nisur nj\u00ebfar\u00eb afrimi gradual me per\u00ebndimin, p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr historis\u00eb s\u00eb tij nacionaliste dhe pro-ruse. Por n\u00eb nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb syt\u00eb i ka pasur drejt Brukselit, vazhdimisht ka refuzuar q\u00eb t\u00eb shk\u00ebpus\u00eb aleanc\u00ebn e fort\u00eb dhe tradicionale me Rusin\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cKriza\u201d e fundit n\u00eb raportet ruso-serbe nd\u00ebrlidhet me zhvillimet e fundit n\u00eb Mali t\u00eb Zi, k\u00ebt\u00eb shtet t\u00eb vog\u00ebl por koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit me sherr t\u00eb madh n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet rajonale. Para dy jav\u00ebsh <\/span>k\u00ebtu n\u00eb blog raportuam p\u00ebr r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb kishin zgjedhjet n\u00eb Mali t\u00eb Zi n\u00eb betej\u00ebn mes NATO-s<\/span><\/a> dhe Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr zgj\u00ebrimin e sferave t\u00eb tyre t\u00eb interesit, si dhe p\u00ebr rolin aktiv t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj t\u00eb fundit p\u00ebr t\u00eb rr\u00ebzuar Millo Gjukanoviqin nga pushteti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb dit\u00ebn e zgjedhjeve ky tension shp\u00ebrtheu deri n\u00eb pik\u00ebn ku, sipas qeveris\u00eb malazeze, nj\u00eb grup prej rreth tridhjet\u00eb personash, t\u00eb prir\u00eb nga ish-shefi i policis\u00eb s\u00eb Serbis\u00eb, kishin b\u00ebr\u00eb plane p\u00ebr t\u00eb organizuar sulm t\u00eb armatosur ndaj pushtetit t\u00eb Gjukanoviqit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Disa dit\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb, krejt befasisht, kryeministri i Serbis\u00eb pranoi se kishte ekzistuar edhe nj\u00eb grup tjet\u00ebr i cili nga Beogradi kishte p\u00ebrgatitur komplot kund\u00ebr Gjukanoviqit. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb grup, sipas Vu\u00e7icit, kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb njer\u00ebz nga Serbia dhe nga \u201csh\u00ebrbime t\u00eb huaja\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Se cilat sh\u00ebrbime t\u00eb huaja mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb komplotin kund\u00ebr Gjukanoviqit, k\u00ebtu nuk ka shum\u00eb vend p\u00ebr dyshime. Gjukanoviq prej koh\u00ebsh ankohej p\u00ebr nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr ta hequr qafe. I \u00e7uditsh\u00ebm mbetet megjithat\u00eb fakti se edhe Vu\u00e7i\u00e7 e mbrojti k\u00ebt\u00eb tez\u00eb publikisht, ndon\u00ebse (natyrisht) nuk e akuzoi drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb Rusin\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vizita e paplanifikuar e shefit t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimit rus n\u00eb Beograd erdhi vet\u00ebm dy dit\u00eb pas deklarat\u00ebs s\u00eb Vu\u00e7icit. Shkaku zyrtar i vizit\u00ebs u tha t\u00eb ket\u00eb qen\u00eb \u201carritja e nj\u00eb memorandumi t\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunimit n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e siguris\u00eb\u201d. Ky arsyetim \u00ebsht\u00eb i palogjiksh\u00ebm marr\u00eb parasysh natyr\u00ebn krejt t\u00eb par\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje t\u00eb till\u00eb dhe nivelin tashm\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe historik t\u00eb afris\u00eb mes sh\u00ebrbimeve t\u00eb siguris\u00eb \u2013 sidomos mes sh\u00ebrbimit ushtarak t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb (<\/span>GRU<\/span><\/a>) dhe sh\u00ebrbimit ushtarak t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb (VBA).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Revista britanike <\/span>The Econmist shkruan,<\/span><\/a> n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb raportimeve t\u00eb mediave serbe, se gjat\u00eb vizit\u00ebs zyrtari rus kishte siguruar lirimin e tre rus\u00ebve t\u00eb dyshuar si t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb afer\u00eb. Ideja se dikush brenda sistemit t\u00eb siguris\u00eb s\u00eb Serbis\u00eb e ka dekonsipiruar skenarin rus nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb larg mendsh (sidomos pasi Vu\u00e7i\u00e7 u deklarua publikisht p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb). N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr,<\/span> gazeta ruse Komersant<\/span><\/a> ishte m\u00eb diplomatike n\u00eb raportin e saj, teksa theksonte se vizita kishte p\u00ebr synim thjesht evitimin e nj\u00eb skandali apo \u00e7arjeje m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet mes aleat\u00ebve tradicional\u00eb pas deklarat\u00ebs publike t\u00eb Vu\u00e7icit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sidoqoft\u00eb, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb shum\u00eb\u00e7ka mbetet e mbuluar n\u00eb mister \u201cn\u00eb k\u00ebto loj\u00ebra spiun\u00ebsh\u201d \u2013 p\u00ebrfshi edhe raportimet p\u00ebr <\/span>nj\u00eb plan p\u00ebr atentat ndaj Vu\u00e7icit<\/span><\/a>, apo raportet e mediave pro-ruse n\u00eb Beograd p\u00ebr ekzistenc\u00ebn e spiun\u00ebve t\u00eb CIA-s n\u00eb policin\u00eb serbe \u2013 nj\u00ebfar\u00eb problemi n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet e Rusis\u00eb me Vu\u00e7icin megjithat\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i duksh\u00ebm.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nga jasht\u00eb duket sikur Aleksandar Vu\u00e7ic po p\u00ebrpiqet q\u00eb, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn publikisht, t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb imazhin e dikujt q\u00eb raportin me Rusin\u00eb nuk e ka n\u00eb nivel vasaliteti. Ai gjithashtu duket sikur d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb distancohet nga p\u00ebrpjekjet p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Serbin\u00eb si aktor shtyt\u00ebs t\u00eb telasheve n\u00eb Malit t\u00eb Zi (\u201ce b\u00ebri Rusia duke i p\u00ebrdorur njer\u00ebzit tan\u00eb\u201d duket sikur d\u00ebshiron thot\u00eb Vu\u00e7i\u00e7). Me gjas\u00eb me k\u00ebt\u00eb edhe d\u00ebshiron q\u00eb t\u2019i tregoj\u00eb Rusis\u00eb se, p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr ndikimit t\u00eb saj t\u00eb madh n\u00eb strukturat e siguris\u00eb n\u00eb Serbi, ai si kryeminist\u00ebr megjithat\u00eb mbetet shefi politik i vendit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por mbetet e dyshimt\u00eb se cilat jan\u00eb synimet e v\u00ebrteta t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb Vu\u00e7iqit n\u00eb raport me Rusin\u00eb. A \u00ebsht\u00eb shk\u00ebputja e tij graduale praj q\u00ebndrimit tradicionalisht t\u00eb n\u00ebnshtruar t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb ndaj Rusis\u00eb thjesht nj\u00eb taktik\u00eb cinike p\u00ebr t\u00eb forcuar pozicionin e Serbis\u00eb p\u00ebrmes neutraliteti, duke e rritur k\u00ebshtu pazarin me t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt p\u00ebr interest strategjike t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb? Apo \u00ebsht\u00eb shenj\u00eb e nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjeje afatgjate p\u00ebr ta orientuar gradualisht Serbin\u00eb drejt per\u00ebndimit, si\u00e7 kan\u00eb d\u00ebshir\u00eb t\u00eb besojn\u00eb kancelarit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore (dhe shpesher\u00eb na\u00efve) t\u00eb dashuruara me retorik\u00ebn e Vu\u00e7icit?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Serbia gjithsesi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb homogjene dhe mbetet thell\u00ebsisht e p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb n\u00eb orientimet lindje-per\u00ebndim. Linja pro-ruse mbetet shum\u00eb m\u00eb e fort\u00eb n\u00eb sken\u00ebn politike. N\u00eb an\u00ebn e majt\u00eb pishtar\u00eb jan\u00eb SPS-i Da\u00e7iqit dhe L\u00ebvizja e Socialist\u00ebve e Vulinit (q\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb qeveri), nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00eb DSS-i, Dveri dhe natyrisht radikal\u00ebt e Sheshelit. Presidenti Nikoliq, i zgjedhur n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb post nga Partia e P\u00ebrparimtare e Vu\u00e7icit, \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu flamurtar i ashp\u00ebr i linjes pro-ruse. Kjo rrym\u00eb ka mb\u00ebshtetje t\u00eb fort\u00eb brenda strukturave t\u00eb siguris\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb vazhdim\u00ebsi qysh prej koh\u00ebs s\u00eb Millosheviqit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vu\u00e7ic viteve t\u00eb fundit n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb shkath\u00ebt ka manovruar n\u00eb mes t\u00eb dy kampeve si kryeminist\u00ebr dhe ka fituar pik\u00eb p\u00ebr Serbin\u00eb si menaxhues i k\u00ebsaj p\u00ebr\u00e7arjeje. N\u00eb Bruksel e Uashingon ai (me sukses) e luan pro-per\u00ebndimorin dhe stabilizuesin e rajonit p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb koncesione, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb e l\u00eb Da\u00e7iqin q\u00eb ta luaj\u00eb loj\u00ebn e policit t\u00eb keq t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Duke qen\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pozicion, Vu\u00e7i\u00e7 nuk e ka aspak problem, ta z\u00ebm\u00eb, q\u00eb publikisht t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtoj\u00eb referendumin e serbeve t\u00eb Bosnjes dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb pik\u00eb n\u00eb Bruksel e Uashingon, por q\u00eb nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht t\u00eb mos e pengoj\u00eb Mosk\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u2019ia kryer Serbis\u00eb pun\u00ebt e pista dhe destabilizuese n\u00eb rajon, q\u00eb e forcojn\u00eb rolin e saj rajonal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por edhe Vu\u00e7ic e di se kjo loj\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb edhe shum\u00eb koh\u00eb, sidomos n\u00eb kontekstin e polarizimit gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb mes Rusis\u00eb dhe per\u00ebndimit. Shenja m\u00eb e madhe e pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb tij u pa\u00a0 pas zgjedhjeve t\u00eb fundit, kur iu desh\u00ebn gjasht\u00eb muaj q\u00eb t\u00eb vendoste p\u00ebr partnerin e koalicionit. U duk sikur u tundua q\u00eb t\u2019i p\u00ebrfshinte n\u00eb qeveri liberal\u00ebt (Tadic-Jovanovic-Canak) dhe t\u00eb b\u00ebnte k\u00ebrcim m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb drejt BE-s\u00eb, q\u00eb do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte edhe nj\u00ebfar\u00eb heqjeje dor\u00eb prej politik\u00ebs s\u00eb tashme ndaj Kosov\u00ebs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Por n\u00eb fund hoqi dor\u00eb nga flirtimet, me gjas\u00eb i frik\u00ebsuar nga reagimi I Rusis\u00eb dhe i rrymave pro-ruse n\u00eb ushtri, media dhe polici, apo edhe nga \u00e7arjet n\u00eb partin\u00eb e tij, ku nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i konsideruesh\u00ebm deputetsh jan\u00eb besnik t\u00eb presidentit Nikolliq. Duke e \u00e7uar gjith\u00eb kampin pro-rus n\u00eb opozit\u00eb dhe duke e \u00e7ar\u00eb partin\u00eb, Vu\u00e7ic e rrezikonte kontrollin e tij tashm\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb politik mbi vendin, apo n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb keq fatin e kryeministrit Gjingjiqit\u00a0 (t\u00eb cilin k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb<\/span> ia p\u00ebrkujtoi si mund\u00ebsi presidenti Nikolliq).\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Prandaj iu rikthye edhe p\u00ebr nj\u00eb mandat koalicionit me Da\u00e7iqin dhe vall\u00ebzimit \u201cher\u00eb k\u00ebndej e her\u00eb andej\u201d, gjithmon\u00eb i gatsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb hapa kontradiktor\u00eb nj\u00ebrin pas tjetrit, p\u00ebr ta mbajtur Serbin\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt, e p\u00ebr t\u00eb pozicionuar veten si lidere t\u00eb rajonit p\u00ebrmes shantazhit.<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebshtu, disa dit\u00eb pasi publikisht pranoi rolin e \u201csh\u00ebrbimeve t\u00eb huaja\u201d n\u00eb ngjarjet n\u00eb Mal t\u00eb Zi dhe vizit\u00ebs s\u00eb Patrushev n\u00eb Beograd, mediat serbe njoftuan p\u00ebr organizimin n\u00eb muajin n\u00ebntor t\u00eb ushtrimeve t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta ushtarake n\u00eb Beograd n\u00eb mes t\u00eb forcave t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb dhe t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb, n\u00ebn moton \u201cV\u00ebllaz\u00ebria sllave\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aleksandar Vu\u00e7ic gjithsesi mbetet nj\u00eb politikan dinak dhe i aft\u00eb q\u00eb parap\u00eblqen t\u00eb mos rr\u00ebnoj\u00eb ura. E ka nisur Serbin\u00eb drejt per\u00ebndimit, por edhe e ka nuhatur kriz\u00ebn e tij \u2013 prej mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb nj\u00eb fitoreje t\u00eb Trump n\u00eb SHBA <\/span>q\u00eb do e ndryshonte raportin e forcave n\u00eb Ballkan,<\/span><\/a> e deri te kriza institucionale e BE-s\u00eb. Ai ngjan si nj\u00eb njeri i vendosur p\u00ebr t\u00eb pritur dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb koh\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb se ku po fryen era, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb e konsolidon pushtetin e tij autokratik.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen serish mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet pro-rus. Por p\u00ebr momentin, p\u00ebrmes provokimeve si ky i fundit, me gjas\u00eb ka vendosur q\u00eb t\u2019i tregoj\u00eb carit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb se p\u00ebr fatin e Serbis\u00eb e vendos\u00eb ai, cari i Serbis\u00eb .<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ish-shefi i sh\u00ebrbimit sekret t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb (FSB), sot sekretar i K\u00ebshillit t\u00eb Siguris\u00eb, Nikolai Patrushev,\u00a0 para dy jav\u00ebsh vizitoi Beogradin.\u00a0 N\u00eb rrethana normale nj\u00eb vizit\u00eb e till\u00eb e zyrtarit m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb aparatit rus t\u00eb siguris\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend tradicionalisht aleat nuk do t\u00eb p\u00ebrbente lajm. Por momenti dhe konteksti i vizit\u00ebs mund t\u00eb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":276,"featured_media":8141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1260],"ppma_author":[274],"class_list":["post-8146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-kremlinshah"],"authors":[{"term_id":274,"user_id":276,"is_guest":0,"slug":"kremlin-shah","display_name":"Kremlin Shah","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/kremlin-shah-black-and-white-v21475494795.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/kremlin-shah-black-and-white-v21475494795.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Shah","first_name":"Kremlin","description":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/276"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8146"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8146\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8147,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8146\/revisions\/8147"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8146"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=8146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}