{"id":8341,"date":"2021-11-29T12:56:40","date_gmt":"2021-11-29T10:56:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/?p=8341"},"modified":"2024-10-15T12:59:31","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T10:59:31","slug":"te-perballurit-me-luften-e-re-hibride-te-kremlinit-ne-evrope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/analize\/te-perballurit-me-luften-e-re-hibride-te-kremlinit-ne-evrope\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00eb p\u00ebrballurit me luft\u00ebn e re hibride t\u00eb Kremlinit n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Me Kremlinin t\u00eb vendosur p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb dhe dob\u00ebsuar Bashkimin Evropian dhe tash duke u orvatur q\u00eb t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzoj\u00eb brisht\u00ebsit\u00eb, fuqit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashkohen dhe t\u00eb kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigjen fuqish\u00ebm. Historia ka terguar se nuk duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb akomodim apo mbyllje sysh ndaj provokimeve ushtarake, politike dhe ekonomike t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Me ardhjen e dimrit, Kremlini po nd\u00ebrsen telashe n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb. Makinacionet e saj t\u00eb fundit p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb luft\u00ebn e gazit kund\u00ebr vendeve t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Qendrore dhe Lindore; kriz\u00ebn e migrimit p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb kufirit t\u00eb Bellorusis\u00eb me Lituanin\u00eb, Letonin\u00eb dhe Polonin\u00eb; rimobilizimin ushtarak n\u00eb kufirin lindor t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs; dhe agjitacionin p\u00ebr shk\u00ebputjen serbe nga Bosnja dhe Hercegovina.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ndon\u00ebse fushata ka q\u00ebllime t\u00eb shum\u00ebfishta, ajo ka nj\u00eb em\u00ebrues t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt: d\u00ebshir\u00ebn e Kremlinit p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb dhe dob\u00ebsuar Bashkimin Evropian. Kjo do thot\u00eb marrjen e p\u00eblqimit t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb p\u00ebr gazjell\u00ebsin Nord Stream 2 sa m\u00eb shpejt\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur; trazimin e tregut t\u00eb gazit t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb, me synimin p\u00ebr t\u2019u kthyer n\u00eb kontrata afatgjate t\u00eb stilit sovjetik, ku \u00e7mimet e gazit nd\u00ebrlidhen me ato t\u00eb naft\u00ebs; dhe dob\u00ebsimi i Ukrain\u00ebs dhe detyrimi i Moldavis\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb braktis\u00eb Marr\u00ebveshjen e Asociacionit Evropian n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019i bashkohet Bashkimit Ekonomik Euroaziatik t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kremlini ka prirje q\u00eb t\u00eb sprovoj\u00eb sa m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb shoh\u00eb se deri ku mund t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb pa u nd\u00ebshkuar, para se t\u00eb godas\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm me t\u2019iu paraqitur mund\u00ebsia. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se Per\u00ebndimi \u2013 Shtetet e Bashkuara, BE-ja dhe Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuar \u2013 duhet t\u00eb veproj\u00eb shpejt q\u00eb t\u00eb parandaloj\u00eb \u00e7far\u00ebdo q\u00eb do t\u00eb vij\u00eb m\u00eb pas. Gabimi m\u00eb i madh q\u00eb b\u00ebhet n\u00eb kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigjet ndaj provokimeve ruse \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mos b\u00ebhet asgj\u00eb, ose t\u00eb reagohet shum\u00eb ngadal\u00eb dhe shum\u00eb but\u00eb. Si\u00e7 argumenton Keir Giles nga Chatham House, Per\u00ebndimi duhet t\u00eb kuptoj\u00eb \u201cse ballafaqimi me Rusin\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb shmanget sepse tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb duke ndodhur.\u201d Historia tregon se \u201cRusia respekton fuqin\u00eb dhe p\u00ebrbuz\u00eb kompromisin dhe pajtimin.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr fat t\u00eb mir\u00eb, Per\u00ebndimi ka tashm\u00eb n\u00eb dispozicion shum\u00eb mjete t\u00eb efektshme dhe me arritjen e qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb re gjermane, e cila me gjas\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb pak miq\u00ebsore ndaj presidentit rus Vladimir Putin, \u00ebsht\u00eb paraqitur mund\u00ebsia p\u00ebr nj\u00eb mendim t\u00eb ri strategjik.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lufta e gazit duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb mjaft e leht\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u fituar. M\u00eb 21 korrik SHBA-ja dhe Gjermania nxor\u00ebn nj\u00eb deklarat\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt lidhur me Nord Stream 2 duke deklaruar \u201cvendosm\u00ebrin\u00eb e tyre p\u00ebr t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuar llogari nga Rusia p\u00ebr agresionin dhe veprimtarit\u00eb dashakeqe, duke vendosur kosto p\u00ebrmes sanksioneve dhe mjeteve t\u00eb tjera.\u201d Pas kat\u00ebr muajsh t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit rus, administrata e presidentit t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb Joe Biden duhet t\u00eb ndjehet e obliguar q\u00eb t\u2019i jap\u00eb fund heqjes dor\u00eb nga sanksionet e miratuara nga Kongresi lidhur me Nord Stream 2, kurse qeveria gjermane duhet t\u00eb pajtohet me k\u00ebt\u00eb. Kjo do t\u2019i jepte fund shum\u00eb shpejt gazsjell\u00ebsit. Mir\u00ebpo, n\u00ebse administrata e Biden-it nuk reagon, Kongresi ende mund t\u00eb reagoj\u00eb duke shtuar sanksione t\u00eb detyrueshme n\u00eb Ligjin p\u00ebr Autorizimin e Mbrojtjes Komb\u00ebtare p\u00ebr Vitin Fiskal 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr momentin Evropa ka rezerva t\u00eb pamjaftueshme t\u00eb gazit sepse Gazpromi ka b\u00ebr\u00eb manovra duke krijuar mungesa artificiale. Gjiganti rus i energjis\u00eb zot\u00ebron \u00e7erekun e kapacitetit t\u00eb magazinimit t\u00eb gazit n\u00eb Gjermani, Austri dhe Holland\u00eb dhe i ka mbajtur ato objekte t\u00eb zbrazura, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb ka mbushur deri n\u00eb fyt cisternat e tij vendore. Zgjidhja e qart\u00eb p\u00ebr BE-n\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019i ndaloj\u00eb Gazpromit dhe furnizuesve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb huaj q\u00eb t\u00eb posedojn\u00eb objekte magazinimi n\u00eb BE, si dhe q\u00eb t\u00eb vendos\u00eb nivele minimale t\u00eb magazinimit n\u00eb objektet ekzistuese p\u00ebr magazinim. P\u00ebr shkak se BE-ja \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb fakt monopsoniste (bler\u00ebse e vetme) e gazit t\u00eb Gazpromit, ajo duhet t\u00eb filloj\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb operoj\u00eb kolektivisht p\u00ebr t\u00eb kufizuar pushtetin e monopolit t\u00eb Gazpromit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anipse administrata e Biden-it ka pranuar Nord Stream 2-shin (p\u00ebrderisa ka ndaluar naft\u00ebsjell\u00ebsin Keystone XL nga Kanadaja), ajo ka refuzuar q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihet n\u00eb kriz\u00ebn evropiane t\u00eb gazit. Kjo duhet t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb. SHBA-ja duhet t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb furnizoj\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn me gazin e l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm natyror, tash q\u00eb Evropa ka nd\u00ebrtuar kapacitetin p\u00ebr t\u00eb pranuar d\u00ebrgesat LNG.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sa p\u00ebr dram\u00ebn kufitare n\u00eb Bellorusi, po shohim nj\u00eb lloj t\u00eb ri lufte hibride, t\u00eb nxitur nga sundimtari i paligjsh\u00ebm i Bellorusis\u00eb Aleksandr Lukashenko. NATO-ja dhe BE-ja duhet t\u00eb pranojn\u00eb situat\u00ebn si t\u00eb till\u00eb dhe t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen e plot\u00eb Polonis\u00eb, Letonis\u00eb dhe Lituanis\u00eb. K\u00ebshilli i Jasht\u00ebm i BE-s\u00eb pati t\u00eb drejt\u00eb kur sanksionoi t\u00eb gjitha kompanit\u00eb e fluturimit dhe firmat q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihen n\u00eb trafikimin e njer\u00ebzve nga Lindja e Mesme n\u00eb kufirin bellorus. SHBA-ja duhet t\u00eb ndjek\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin shembull dhe t\u00eb ashp\u00ebrsoj\u00eb sanksionet e saj (disi t\u00eb buta) ndaj Bellorusis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q\u00ebkur Biden-i erdhi n\u00eb pushtet, SHBA-ja ka qen\u00eb e vendosur n\u00eb mbrojtjen e Ukrain\u00ebs, fqinjit jugor t\u00eb Bellorusis\u00eb. Vizita e presidentit ukrainas Volodymyr Zelensky n\u00eb Sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e Bardh\u00eb n\u00eb shtator ishte ngjarje vendimtare. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, jo m\u00eb pak se tre sekretar\u00eb t\u00eb kabinetit amerikan kan\u00eb vizituar k\u00ebt\u00eb vit Ukrain\u00ebn, kurse m\u00eb 10 n\u00ebntor, SHBA-ja miratoi nj\u00eb dokument befasisht t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm t\u00eb quajtur Karta SHBA-Ukrain\u00eb mbi Partneritetin Strategjik. Dokumenti shpreh zotimin e SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahje t\u00eb \u201cs\u00eb drejt\u00ebs s\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen t\u00eb vendos\u00eb p\u00ebr politik\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb jashtme pa nd\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb jashtme, gjithashtu sa i p\u00ebrket aspiratave t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u2019iu bashkuar NATO-s.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Menj\u00ebher\u00eb pas k\u00ebtyre zhvillimeve premtuese, qeveria ukrainase sapo ka em\u00ebruar minist\u00ebr t\u00eb ri t\u00eb mbrojtjes Oleksiy Reznikov-in, an\u00ebtarin e saj m\u00eb t\u00eb respektuar. Prej llogoreve n\u00eb Donbas, ai pritet q\u00eb t\u00eb vizitoj\u00eb s\u00eb shpejti Uashingtonin.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mir\u00ebpo BE-ja, NATO-ja, Gjermania dhe Franca duhet t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb. T\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb dit\u00ebt e fundit, t\u00eb gjitha jan\u00eb shprehur kund\u00ebr agresionit rus n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Ka l\u00ebn\u00eb mbresa d\u00ebrgimi I 600 forcave speciale t\u00eb Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00ebse qeveria e re gjermane e ka seriozisht ruajtjen e paqes n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, gj\u00ebja m\u00eb e efektshme q\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00ebpres\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn n\u00eb NATO. Ukrain\u00eb me vite i ka b\u00ebr\u00eb ball\u00eb agresionit ushtarak rus, duke sh\u00ebrbyer si mburoj\u00eb p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs. Gjermania nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e gatshme t\u00eb vet\u00ebmbrohet, prandaj duhet t\u2019i ndihmoj\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs duke e furnizuar me arm\u00eb, ashtu si\u00e7 b\u00ebjn\u00eb tashm\u00eb SHBA-ja, MB-ja, Kanadaja, Polonia dhe Lituania.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb fund fare \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe \u00e7\u00ebshtja e Ballkanit. Tensionet po rriten p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb ish Jugosllavi p\u00ebr shkak se BE-ja nuk i \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrmbajtur zotimeve t\u00eb saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb nisur negociatat p\u00ebr an\u00ebtar\u00ebsim me Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut dhe Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb. N\u00eb Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut qeveria pro-evropiane sapo ka humbur pushtet pas l\u00ebshimeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha q\u00eb kishte b\u00ebr\u00eb ndaj BE-s\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb asgj\u00ebs\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

BE-ja b\u00ebn mir\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb serioze n\u00eb ndjekjen e ides\u00eb s\u00eb \u201cnj\u00eb Evrope t\u00eb bashkuar dhe t\u00eb lir\u00eb dhe paq\u00ebsore,\u201d si\u00e7 kishte th\u00ebn\u00eb George H.W. Bush n\u00eb maj 1989. Duke hapur menj\u00ebher\u00eb negociatat p\u00ebr an\u00ebtar\u00ebsim me Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut dhe Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb, ajo mund t\u00eb parandaloj\u00eb Republika Srpsk\u00ebn prej flirtimit me iden\u00eb e shk\u00ebputjes nga Bosnja dhe Hercegovina.<\/span><\/p>\n

SHBA-ja dhe BE-ja kan\u00eb n\u00eb dor\u00eb karta t\u00eb vlefshme. Sidoqoft\u00eb, ato duhet t\u00eb luajn\u00eb me to shpejt dhe efektsh\u00ebm n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019i b\u00ebjn\u00eb ball\u00eb sulmeve ruse.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0***<\/span><\/p>\n

Artikulli origjinal n\u00eb <\/span>Project Syndicate<\/span><\/a>, m\u00eb 18 n\u00ebntor 2021<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ky artikull mb\u00ebshtetet nga “Sbunker” p\u00ebrmes projektit t\u00eb financuar nga Ambasada Amerikane. Mendimet e shprehura k\u00ebtu jan\u00eb t\u00eb autorit dhe jo medoemos pasqyrojn\u00eb q\u00ebndrimet e Departamentit t\u00eb Shtetit.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Me Kremlinin t\u00eb vendosur p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb dhe dob\u00ebsuar Bashkimin Evropian dhe tash duke u orvatur q\u00eb t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzoj\u00eb brisht\u00ebsit\u00eb, fuqit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashkohen dhe t\u00eb kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigjen fuqish\u00ebm. Historia ka terguar se nuk duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb akomodim apo mbyllje sysh ndaj provokimeve ushtarake, politike dhe ekonomike t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb. Me ardhjen e dimrit, Kremlini po […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":483,"featured_media":8141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1260],"ppma_author":[1296],"class_list":["post-8341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analize","tag-kremlinshah"],"authors":[{"term_id":1296,"user_id":483,"is_guest":0,"slug":"anders-aslund","display_name":"Anders Aslund","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2275df282ea35169a52f4776cf25136b5d99ebf16e19c670d3d92ae42227d003?s=96&d=mm&r=g","user_url":"","last_name":"Aslund","first_name":"Anders","description":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/483"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8341"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8341\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8342,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8341\/revisions\/8342"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8341"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sbunker.org\/sr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=8341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}