The incoming Trump administration, set to take office in January 2025, is expected to significantly influence various geopolitical developments, including the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue.
The U.S. has a longstanding history of involvement in the Kosovo-Serbia dispute, with every administration playing a role in the dialogue process. More recently, the Biden administration’s position was that the resolution of talks should lead to mutual recognition between the two parties.
During his first presidential term, President Trump was notably more involved in the region than his predecessor (Barack Obama) and successor (Joe Biden). Trump’s special presidential envoy, Richard Grenell, initiated a parallel dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, sidelining the EU. This effort focused on economic normalization, deliberately avoiding sensitive political issues.
In 2020, Trump secured the Agreement on the Normalization of Economic Relations, commonly known as the Washington Agreement. While primarily focused on economic issues, the agreement also encompassed non-economic provisions, including the designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, commitments to promote LGBTQ+ rights, Israel’s recognition of Kosovo, and the relocation of the Serbian embassy to Jerusalem, among other things.
However, after Trump lost the presidency to Joseph Biden in 2020, the Washington Agreement was largely sidelined. Now, with Trump’s reelection, the Washington Agreement is back in focus as both parties anxiously await his administration’s first course of action in the Western Balkans. Simultaneously, the region is waiting to see whether President Trump will reappoint Richard Grenell as his special envoy for the region.
While attempting to predict the future is challenging and speculative, reflecting on Trump’s first term and his administration's approach to the Western Balkans and the Kosovo-Serbia dispute offers valuable lessons for what may lie ahead.
Strained Relations with Albin Kurti
It is no secret that Trump’s team harbors a negative attitude toward Prime Minister Albin Kurti. During Richard Grenell’s tenure as Trump’s special envoy for the region, he played a role in orchestrating the toppling of Kurti's first government.
Given this history of animosity between the Trump administration and Kurti’s leadership, it remains uncertain whether Kurti will be able to establish a functional relationship with the incoming Trump administration.
This dynamic is particularly crucial considering the ongoing deterioration in the U.S.-Kosovo relations over the past four years, during which the U.S. imposed measures against Kosovo. Additionally, Kurti’s support for Joe Biden during the 2020 presidential election could further complicate his relationship with the Trump administration. The question of whether Kurti can navigate this challenging relationship will be critical for the future of the U.S.-Kosovo cooperation.
Close Ties with Serbian Leadership
The Serbian leadership has cultivated strong connections with key figures in the U.S. political landscape, particularly within the previous Trump administration. Richard Grenell has often been portrayed in Pristina as a pro-Serbian advocate or even a lobbyist for Serbian interests—a characterization that the Serbian government has publicly denied.
Further reinforcing these connections are reported business links involving Jared Kushner, former President Trump’s son-in-law. Kushner’s investment in a luxury development project has been described as “controversial” by Politico, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest.
President Vucic was also one of the first world leaders to hold a telephone call with Trump, congratulating him on his recent win, which makes Serbia’s position vis-à-vis Kosovo better.
Given these established ties, it is worth considering whether a potential second Trump administration might prioritize strengthening its relationship with Serbia, possibly at the expense of advancing Kosovo’s interests.
Sidelining the EU
During the 2019-2020 period, the Trump administration launched its own parallel dialogue, effectively sidelining the EU. The EU, already facing a series of crises in its facilitated Kosovo- Serbia Dialogue, struggled to cope with this development.
This situation created confusion among people in Serbia and Kosovo, who were unsure about the status of the EU-led dialogue. At the same time, it raised false expectations that the U.S. was finally engaging with the region.
It remains to be seen whether this would still be the case should the Trump administration attempt to revive the Washington Agreement and pursue its own plans. Regardless of Trump’s intentions, his administration and the EU do not see eye to eye.
The EU is facing a challenging period. Its role as a major political power in the Balkans may come under scrutiny, not only from Russia and China but also from the U.S. This could have serious repercussions for the EU’s goal of becoming a recognized geopolitical player, particularly if it cannot address problems in its own front yard.
