The region historically plagued by conflicts and ethnic tensions finds itself at the center of international concern following the resurgence of war threats between Kosovo and Serbia. Despite efforts to normalize relations, old enmities have not disappeared, continuing to fuel polarization and fear of violence erupting in the heart of Europe.
The situation is being fueled by nationalist rhetoric, which is as strong as it was during the period when the region was engulfed in bloody wars. In Serbia, nationalist rhetoric continues to portray Kosovo as an integral part of Serbian identity and history. Any compromise regarding Kosovo is seen as a betrayal of national interests and surrender to the West, which is still accused every time historical events are recalled, such as the 25th anniversary of NATO's bombings against the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). The leadership in Serbia has capitalized on these sentiments to increase support internally and solidify its stance on the Kosovo issue.
Moreover, a statement by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, noting that “Serbia will await the best possible moment and will seize the opportunity to act,” alluding to an invasion of Kosovo, was seen as a direct threat to Kosovo's sovereignty. Serbia is doing this by reinforcing the narrative that the existence of Serbs is at risk as a result of Prishtina's official ethnic cleansing campaign.
In line with this, Serbia once again deployed its army along the border. Just a few meters from the border with Kosovo, near the village of Banje in Zubin Potok, specialized units of the Serbian army have been noticed. Similar movements have been recorded in the village of Oslare in Bujanovac, near the border with Kosovo.
The video was released by the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, who stated, “The Armed Forces of Serbia are conducting regular exercises, which are being used as a pretext to cause deliberate provocations.”
Kosovo cannot deploy its army in the northern part without the special permission of the KFOR Commander, according to an agreement signed by former Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. For this reason, the presence of NATO units in that area is crucial. After the terrorist attack on September 24th in Banjskë of Zvečan, this force increased troops and patrols in the north.
Any potential intervention by the Serbian army would entail a confrontation with NATO. This warning was issued by the US Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, James O’Brien, who stated, “Vucic knows well that any use of force against Kosovo would be putting in danger the NATO troops who are there to protect the population, whether ethnically Serb or Albanian.”
NATO's peacekeeping mission remains the primary deterrent against direct conflict. Failure to act against Serbian aggression would undermine NATO's credibility, the presence of which is uncontested by both Albanians and Serbs.
Rarely since the declaration of independence has KFOR been involved in managing the situation in the north like last year when clashes erupted between the Kosovo police and Serbs who opposed the appointment of Albanian mayors to municipal facilities previously managed by the Serbian List until April 23, 2023. This situation caused a wave of concern in the region and beyond, as Serbia once again put its military forces on high alert, threatening intervention in the name of protecting Kosovo Serbs.
Russia's support for Serbia adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Moscow openly supports Serbia in not recognizing Kosovo's independence and uses its ties with Serbian authorities to enhance its influence in the region. Russia's efforts to exploit existing tensions and destabilize the region are becoming increasingly apparent.
In this context, propaganda and disinformation are being used to spread fear and hatred. Social networks and television channels have become platforms to strengthen nationalist narratives and demonize political opponents.
While Western powers have reaffirmed their support for Kosovo's sovereignty and territorial integrity, they have also called for an end to provocative rhetoric and for constructive dialogue. Both Serbia and Kosovo aspire to join the European Union, a path-dependent on the peaceful resolution of disputes.
However, in the dialogue mediated by Brussels, progress has been slow, and the parties are still far from reaching an agreement assumed to be final and normalize the relations.
Therefore, a multi-dimensional approach is essential to de-escalate the situation, at a time when the parties find themselves in a deep cycle of distrust.
The government of Kosovo is being urged to demonstratively guarantee the safety and rights of the Serbian community in Kosovo. The mechanism aimed at advancing these rights is the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, for which, previous governments including the current one, have pledged to fulfill the obligation prescribed to Kosovo since 2013.
By offering tangible rewards, the EU can encourage the parties to move towards a sustainable solution, which currently does not seem to be on the horizon.
The Government of Kosovo has, on several occasions, confirmed its lack of trust in the EU as a mediator in the dialogue, accusing it of bias in this process. Criticism revolves around the fact that the Basic Agreement has been reduced to Serbia's insistence on establishing the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. The rift between the EU and the Government has deepened due to the ongoing sanctions Brussels continues to impose on Kosovo, despite government insistence that steps have been taken to de-escalate the situation in the north by removing special units from municipal facilities and agreeing on new elections for municipal mayors that are underway.
However, with the decisions that followed the Bratislava agreement, such as the expropriations and the approval of the regulation prohibiting the use of the Serbian dinar as a means of payment, Western distrust only deepened towards the Government. In this manner, these measures can be seen as a means of pressure to prevent any further escalation of the situation in the north.
*This article is published as part of the Western Balkans Regional Initiative against disinformation. “Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub: exposing malign influences through watchdog journalism.”
