*Prepared by: Fitim Gashi
The upcoming elections, if not boycotted by the Serbs in northern Kosovo, could significantly impact the political and security dynamics in the region, especially in the context of recent decisions by the Government of Kosovo to close institutions funded by Serbia.
One of the primary objectives of the Government of Kosovo, since taking office three and a half years ago, despite international criticism, has been to shut down the parallel structures that continue to operate in the north and are backed by official Belgrade. Next year's elections, starting with the central level and followed by local elections at the end of the year, will serve as a test to determine whether these structures will retain their influence and whether the government's decisions have weakened their power. If the elections are held in a calm atmosphere with broad participation, they could legitimize the authorities operating under Kosovo's laws in the eyes of the Serbian community, as well as the international community. This could strengthen resistance to any form of parallel structures.
The upcoming elections will also pose a challenge for the Serbian List. The changed context, compared to previous elections, could open space for political rivals of this party, especially if opposition Serbian parties participate in the elections. With the closure of parallel structures, which in the past dictated the votes of Serbian citizens, and the weakening of Belgrade’s influence, new or existing opposition parties now have the opportunity to challenge the hegemony of the Serbian List.
In the past, the electoral environment in the north has been marked by a tense and often intimidating atmosphere for candidates who dared to challenge the Serbian List. International reports have noted that elections were frequently accompanied by pressure on the Serbian List's opponents, with citizens being afraid to support other parties due to the deep ties the Serbian List has with authorities in Belgrade. The Serbian List has not only won elections in both northern and southern municipalities of Kosovo, but has also secured all reserved seats for the Serbian community in the Kosovo Assembly. This has given it strong control over the representation of Serbs in Kosovo’s institutions, even though during the last legislature, they attended parliamentary sessions only when it was necessary to reconfirm their mandates.
The continued support from official Belgrade for the Serbian List since its creation in 2013 has been a decisive factor, initially for the integration and later the withdrawal of Serbs from Kosovo’s institutions.
One of the main reasons for its dominance has been the strong political and financial backing from Serbia, as well as its control over most of the Serbian structures in the north.
Another key factor influencing electoral outcomes in the north is the Serbian community's economic reliance on Belgrade. A significant portion of the Serbian population in the north has been employed by Serbian state structures, making them more susceptible to the influence of the Serbian List and directives from Belgrade.
In the local elections of April 23, 2023, the Serbian List, acting on directives from Belgrade, boycotted the electoral process and later initiated the petition to remove the newly elected Albanian mayors. This decision was a response to the Government of Kosovo's actions in the north. What followed made it clear that the boycott was an attempt by Belgrade to maintain control over the parallel structures. Among other things, Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vucic, repeatedly reaffirmed the so-called Temporary Municipal Authorities, although their influence has significantly diminished over the years.
The boycott by the Serbian majority led to the election of Albanian mayors in the northern municipalities for the first time. Since May 2023, the region has seen heightened tensions, with violent clashes between protesters and KFOR troops causing serious instability in the north. The tensions peaked with an attack by an armed group from Serbia, which resulted in the death of Kosovo Police Sergeant Afrim Bunjaku. In September, the Special Prosecution filed charges against the group, led by the former vice president of the Serbian List, Milan Radoicic, labeling the attack a terrorist act, with evidence indicating that the Serbian state played a role in its organization.
Following ongoing tensions and the Serbian boycott, Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic recently introduced several measures regarding Kosovo. Among them, he called for new elections in northern Kosovo, deeming them essential to restoring Serbian representation. However, he avoided addressing the consequences of the nearly two-year-long boycott for the Serbs in the north, let alone taking responsibility for pulling Serbs out of Kosovo's institutions.
Serbia's opposition, however, has not let this go unmentioned. They have been critical of Vucic and are making efforts to diminish his influence in the north.
During a meeting in Belgrade, opposition representatives and Serbian politicians from Kosovo discussed forming a united front against the Serbian List in the upcoming elections on February 9, 2025. Key figures of the Serbian opposition, such as Zoran Lutovac, leader of the Democratic Party, and Dragan Dilas, head of the Freedom and Justice Party (SSP), attended the meeting.
The Serbs from Kosovo were represented by the Serbian National Council of Kosovo, the Serbian National Forum from Gracanica, and the People's Movement of Kosovo Serbs “Homeland.” The president of the Serbian National Forum, Momcilo Trajkovic, emphasized the need for an authentic Serbian policy in Kosovo by offering an alternative to the Serbian List. In the meeting they also criticized Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's policies, particularly for creating a chain of corruption involving the Serbian List, which has prevented funds intended for the Serbian community from reaching them.
It remains to be seen whether these efforts are merely a “political show” or if the other political entities that decide to participate in the upcoming elections will truly be independent from official Belgrade, given that Serbia’s opposition doesn’t differ much from Vucic when it comes to Kosovo.
The international community has consistently called for a reduction in tensions and the organization of new elections in the northern municipalities. Holding elections in a peaceful and democratic environment, with the participation of the Serbian majority, could shift the course of the international support that has been lacking in recent months for the Government of Kosovo in its efforts to integrate the north, not just through police actions. The unilateral implementation of decisions and the lack of coordination regarding the north have deepened disagreements with international partners, while the EU continues to uphold sanctions against Kosovo.
Replacing the Albanian mayors with representatives elected through the participation of the Serbian majority would enhance the legitimacy of Kosovo's institutions in the north and demonstrate that Serbs have chosen to engage constructively within Kosovo’s institutional framework.
*This article is published as part of the Western Balkans Regional Initiative against disinformation. “Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub: exposing malign influences through watchdog journalism.”
