French President Emanuel Macron’s two-day visit to Serbia in August 2024, at the invitation of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, marked a significant moment in the region’s diplomatic landscape.
A focal point of the visit was the signing of a contract for the procurement of 12 Rafale fighter jets, making Serbia the first non-EU and non-NATO European country to secure such a deal with France.
This deal carries substantial implications. First, it reflects France’s increasingly pragmatic approach to the Western Balkans. Second, it demonstrates Serbia’s intent to modernize its military by shifting away from reliance on Russian capabilities. Third, it may signal that Serbia is gradually moving from its delicate balance between the West and the East and leaning more toward the West.
Boosting France-Serbia relations
Under the leadership of President Immanuel Macron, France has boosted its economic footprint in the Western Balkans. This is in line with the French Strategy for the Western Balkans, adopted in 2019. The Strategy envisages, among others, boosting economic, security, justice and defense cooperation.
French companies have a strong presence in the Western Balkan region, with particular influence in Serbia. Over 120 French companies, employing around 12,000 people are operating in Serbia. French companies have secured some of the most significant infrastructural projects in Serbia. Vinci company, for example, holds the concession for Belgrade airport, while RATP Dev is constructing the constructing Belgrade metro.
Moreover, one of the contracts signed in 2024 involves nuclear energy development. These developments showcase that France is fulfilling nearly all of the goals outlined in its strategy with Serbia, becoming Serbia’s key sponsor and supporter on its path toward EU membership.
The substantial increase in the number and value of business deals between France and Serbia suggests that economic cooperation is being prioritized over traditional EU values such as democracy and the rule of law. During his visit, Macron also discussed Serbia’s EU accession, emphasizing that the merit-based principle remains central to the integration process.
Military Cooperation: An Important Step Away from Russia
The agreement on Rafale fighter jets represents a major milestone in Franco-Serbia relations. This military cooperation sends several important messages.
Firstly, Serbia is transitioning its air force from Soviet-era MiG-29s to NATO-compatible technology, which goes beyond military procurement, it sends a political message about Serbia’s geopolitical orientation.
Secondly, selling advanced and expensive military equipment requires guarantees that the technology and knowledge associated with it will not be transferred to unfriendly states or military alliances. This indicates that Serbia is moving away from its reliance on Russian military capabilities, which is significant given current global geopolitics, including the Russian war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Macron’s actions suggest that France views Serbia as a reliable partner.
However, political assurances alone are not enough. France now has a greater incentive to strongly support Serbia’s accession to the EU, and potentially NATO. Just days after Macron’s visit and the signing of the fighter jet contract, the EU Special Representative for the Western Balkans, Miroslav Lajcak, stated that Serbia could join the EU as early as 2028. Interestingly, the first Rafale jet is scheduled for delivery in that same year.
Gradually Shifting Toward the West?
With such strong economic and defense cooperation with one of the leading EU and NATO countries, one might ask: is this part of Serbia’s hedging strategy, or does it indicate a gradual shift toward the West?
This fits into Vucic’s strategy, allowing him to send different messages to different audiences. For those favoring closer to the West, this deal may serve as compelling evidence of Serbia’s shift. For pro-Russian actors, on the other hand, it can be presented as maintaining a careful balance between East and West.
However, when viewed in context, the Rafale contract seems to tip the scales toward the West. The deal alone represents roughly 3.6% of Serbia’s GDP. Moreover, Serbia’s defense budget for 2024 is $1.43 billion, making this purchase the single largest military expenditure—double the current military spending. It is also important to note that fighter jets come with sophisticated armaments, technology and knowledge transfer.
While Serbia will continue to maintain its balancing act between East and West, the significance of this agreement suggests a deeper alignment with the West. The coming years will be critical in determining whether this marks a gradual but definitive shift in Serbia’s international stance.
