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Opinion

Is Serbia going to leave the Council of Europe because of Kosovo?

In May 2023, the Government of Kosovo sent a letter of application to the Council of Europe (CoE) General Secretary to join the organization. This marked an important step in Kosovo’s quest for statehood consolidation, potentially paving the way for EU membership. 

Joining the CoE is crucial for Kosovo as it seeks to solidify its statehood on the international stage. Firstly, according to CoE criteria , “any European State that is willing to fulfill the provisions of Article 3 may be invited to become a member of the Council of Europe.” If Kosovo is admitted to CoE, it will unequivocally confirm its statehood.

Secondly, aspirations to join the EU are intertwined with its CoE membership bid. Despite Kosovo’s application to the EU in December 2022, progress has been stalled, largely due to hesitations within the EU regarding Kosovo’s status, in particular, Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), which states that “any European state […] may apply to become a member of the Union.”

By becoming a member of the CoE, Kosovo would alleviate concerns within the European Commission (EC) regarding its statehood, thereby facilitating a smoother path towards a positive opinion on its EU membership application. This would potentially eliminate potential obstacles arising from objections by non-recognizing states.

After Kosovo submitted its application in 2023, the CoE established a team to review Kosovo’s bid led by the rapporteur Dora Bakoyannis – former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Greece. The team of lawyers was appointed to look into the compatibility of Kosovo’s legal system with CoE standards. Their report will be taken into account by the rapporteur of the Committee on Political Affairs and Democracy. 

The CoE’s rapporteur for Kosovo, Dora Bakoyannis, recommended that the Council of Ministers extend Kosovo an invitation to join. It based its decision on the fact that the Kosovo Government has implemented the 2016 Constitutional Court decision and registered ownership over 24 hectares of land to the Visoki Decani monastery of the Serbian Orthodox Church. 

In its opinion, Bokoyannis did not emphasize the necessity of implementation of the Brussels Agreement (2013) and the establishment of the Community/Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities. Instead, she proposed addressing these issues through post-accession monitoring. The report highlighted this as “an important step and a way to enhance the democratic participation and empowerment of Kosovo Serbs and ensure the protection of their rights.” However, it clarified that the “establishment of an inter-municipal association is not a requirement under Council of Europe standards.”

Over the past three years, Kosovo has struggled to join international organizations and gain new state recognitions. Kosovo has made no progress in this regard, and the recent recommendation for CoE membership is a significant step for the Kosovo Government.

The CoE membership has always been seen as an important milestone in state-building. With Russia’s expulsion from the CoE in 2022, following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the balance of power in this organization has shifted. Therefore, Kosovo is capitalizing on this geopolitical opportunity to achieve an important objective to solidify its statehood. 

Serbia’s official stance remains staunchly opposed to Kosovo’s membership in international organizations. While Serbian leadership traditionally emphasized opposition to Kosovo’s UN membership, the CoE membership has recently emerged as a focal point of contention.

The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, stated that if Kosovo joins the CoE, Serbia will change its approach to the dialogue and may even leave the CoE membership.

This position was reiterated by the newly elected Parliament Speaker and former Prime Minister, Ana Brnabic. She stated that this threat was not a bluff and that if “accepting Kosovo’s membership CoE violates its own Statute and values, Serbia will leave this organization.”

Following such strong reactions, it appears that Serbia aimed to convey a strong message of dissatisfaction. The question is, is this message credible? Will the EU and its member states take it seriously or dismiss it as a bluff? 

Some EU officials have already called it a bluff, but the official reaction of the EU and CoE is still missing. Whether bluff or not, welcoming Kosovo in the CoE without progress in the normalization of relations with Serbia is unproductive and, is perceived as unfair by Belgrade. The implementation of the Constitutional Court decision regarding the Decan Monastery should not be enough for CoE membership, especially not in the atmosphere of constant tensions in the past two years. 

This is contributing to the overall feeling of Serbs in Kosovo and Serbia that the Kurti government has been awarded for non-constructiveness and unilateral moves. Any progress in Kosovo’s international affirmation should stem from progress in the dialogue. 

Serbia has already started lobbying CoE members to vote against Kosovo’s membership bid, it shows that rather than opting for the most radical step as the withdrawal from CoE, Serbia is pursuing a diplomatic battle of blocking Kosovo’s membership.

Despite the outcome of Kosovo’s membership, Serbia can hardly allow itself to withdraw from such an important international organization.

Serbia’s stance appears inconsistent given Serbia’s prior acceptance of the Ohrid Agreement in 2023, which explicitly states that Serbia will not object to Kosovo’s membership in any international organization.

Membership in CoE is essential for EU membership and for having robust human rights protection mechanisms which might not align with the priorities of the current Serbian government. 

Therefore, the fundamental question arises: Is Serbia ready to jeopardize its EU membership aspirations by confronting the EU?

Only time will tell.

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