Following more than a year of large-scale student led protests in Serbia, the government has been shaken to its core. In early 2025, the country formed a new government after Prime Minister Vucevic resigned.
Despite growing calls for snap elections, President Vucic insisted that Serbia’s government remained stable and that early elections were unnecessary. Yet the movement’s core demand for snap elections remained unchanged.
As the student movement continued to sustain pressure throughout 2025, Vucic signaled that by the end of 2026, snap elections are a possibility.
Although President Vucic has hinted at snap elections, his words should be treated with caution. He has reversed course before, and there is no legal obligation requiring him to follow through. If Vucic does not follow through, the next regular parliamentary elections are scheduled for February 2028.
Whether Serbia will hold snap elections in 2026 remains uncertain, as Vucic’s decision will depend on a variety of factors, with four key ones standing out.
1. Approval Rating and Electoral Timing
Vucic’s and the SNS’s approval ratings are a key factor. If Vucic believes public support and party backing are strong enough to secure a parliamentary majority, he is more likely to call elections.
Currently, the polls are not favorable to Vucic. His approval rating has fallen to its lowest level since 2012 and, according to multiple polls, now stands at around 30 percent, with a negative trend.
It is difficult to believe that Vucic’s approval ratings will improve if he waits much longer. Given the current downward trend, delaying elections could increase the likelihood of defeat.
Time is therefore not on his side, and early elections in 2026 may be his only viable option if he hopes to remain in power for several more years. The challenge for him will be to identify the moment that best serves his political interests.
2. Domestic Pressure
Sustained pressure from protesters is the main driver behind the possibility of snap elections. If that momentum fades, the incentive to call early elections diminishes, as the government would have little reason to take such a political risk.
However, the protests have already dealt a serious blow to Vucic and the SNS, one that will be difficult to fully recover from.
Government-affiliated media have already begun employing a familiar tactic: marginalizing the protests while attempting to construct a narrative of internal divisions among students, professors, activists, opposition leaders, and other influential figures.
The aim is to convey that the student movement is fragmented and incapable of seriously challenging the government, thereby discouraging potential supporters and weakening the protest’s broader political impact.
3. Geopolitical Tensions
Vucic could exploit global geopolitical tensions to his advantage. If the EU is preoccupied with other urgent matters, he may push for snap elections, potentially marred by serious irregularities, similar to those observed in 2023.
However, given the deteriorated relations with Brussels, it is unlikely that the EU would permit another genuinely contested election.
This risk is further heightened as the EU debates freezing pre-accession funds for Serbia, while the SNS remains under scrutiny from the EPP group, making any such maneuver politically and diplomatically perilous.
4. Synchronizing Parliamentary and Presidential Elections
Vucic appears focused on the 2027 presidential race. Unable to seek a third term and with no clear SNS successor, he could resign in 2026 to run for prime minister instead.
Holding early parliamentary elections alone would be politically risky, so he is more likely to synchronize both parliamentary and presidential elections to mitigate that risk.
In this scenario, Vucic would likely frame the elections as a high-stakes, existential choice for the public, seeking to polarize Serbian society while amplifying propaganda that casts students as traitors, foreign agents, and enemies of the state.
It is still too early to say whether Serbia will hold snap elections in 2026. However, two major developments are likely to influence Vucic’s decision. The results of local elections in nine cities on March 29, which will test SNS’s support, and whether opposition parties form a united front.
